The Pittsburgh Pirates (17-25) will visit the Atlanta Braves (20-23) to kick off a four-game series Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park will be at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates at Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 0-2 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 20 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 1 relief appearance.
The Pirates have lost three straight games started by Crowe, though he’s pitched at least five innings and allowed three or fewer runs in each of those appearances.
In his last time out against the Giants, Crowe struck out five batters across five innings and allowed three runs on six hits.
LHP Drew Smyly is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 31 IP over 6 starts.
In his last two starts, Smyly has pitched 12 innings and allowed just one earned run with eight strikeouts and eight hits. The Braves won both games over the Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals.
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Pirates at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Braves -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 6, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
The Braves are slight favorites at -185 despite dropping six of their last 10 games, including three of their last four. Smyly seems to have found a groove, though and has helped the Braves win his last two starts.
I like the BRAVES (-180) to win at home tonight with the lefty on the hill against a Pirates team that has scored more than three runs only twice in their last seven games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Pirates are 19-23 ATS this season and both teams are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. I like the BRAVES -1.5 (+105) to cover the spread at home. They’ll tag Crowe for 4-5 runs and keep a sputtering Pittsburgh offense in check.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total has gone Under in each of Crowe’s last four starts, but in six of the last seven meetings between these teams, it’s gone Over the projected line.
Neither pitcher has performed particularly well this season, which I think will help push the line OVER 8.5 (-120).
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