The Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) and New York Mets (27-27) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mets won 14-5 last year
The Phillies split a 4-game set with the Atlanta Braves over the weekend and have been doing a lot of splitting. They’re 5-5 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Phils are in 4th place in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the Braves, and need to improve on their 11-18 road record to make a run.
The Mets just dropped 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies as they were outslugged 10-7 Saturday and 11-0 Sunday. New York is 6-4 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Mets are just ahead of Philadelphia in 3rd place, 5 games behind the Braves. They are 12-9 at home and have won 5 in a row in Flushing Meadows.
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Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kodai Senga
Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 11 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
- 4 career starts vs. Mets: 0-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11 K in 16 1/3 IP
Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 48 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K against Chicago Cubs Wednesday
- Has issued 3 or more BB in 8 of his 9 starts
- Much better at home: 2-1, 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP vs. 2-2, 6.12 ERA, 1.84 WHIP on the road
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Mets have trouble with lefties, going 7-14 on the season against them, but Suarez doesn’t figure to be around long. He has pitched 4, 2 and 5 IP in his 3 starts and allowed at least 3 ER in each. The real question is can Senga keep the walks under control? Philadelphia is 23rd in MLB in walks per game, which is another good sign for the Mets.
The Phils are just 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in New York and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings overall.
Take the METS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
Neither team is good on the RL this season because they’ve disappointed around .500 much of the season. Philly is 21-32 on the RL (13-16 on the road) and the Mets are 19-35 (7-14 at home).
There have been multi-run wins between these teams in 6 of the last 10 outings. Philadelphia is 16th with a 4.11 bullpen ERA, and New York is 20th at 4.29. We’ll PASS here because I have a good beat on the total.
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Over/Under
There are a lot of reasons to like the Over Tuesday. The wind is blowing out toward left field at 10 mph, so 1B Pete Alonso‘s eyes should light up as he’s hitting .279 with 6 homers and 11 RBI against lefties this year.
The Over cashed in 3 of the last 4 between the clubs and is 4-0-1 in the last 5 for the Mets vs. a left-hander.
Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).
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