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The Philadelphia Phillies (92-63) and the New York Mets (86-68) wrap up a 4-game series Sunday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 7-5
The Phillies beat the Mets 12-2 on Friday night to clinch a postseason berth for the 3rd consecutive season. They lost 5-1 on Saturday. With a victory Sunday, Philadelphia can clinch its 1st NL East Division title since 2011.
Philadelphia is struggling lately, going 2-4 in the past 6 games, all on the road. The Over has cashed in the 1st 3 games of this series, averaging 7.0 runs per game (RPG), while allowing 6.0 RPG.
New York has won 5 of the past 6 games while the Over has connected in 5 consecutive outings. The Mets have scored 38 runs in the 5-game span, or 7.6 RPG. They’ve allowed 7.0 RPG in the 1st 3 games of this set, too.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Wheeler (16-6, 2.56 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 186 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 road victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 6-3, 2.85 ERA, 85 1/3 IP, 27 ER, 9 HR, 0.97 WHIP, .197 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 22 BB, 90 K in 14 starts
- Last 7 games: 5-1, 1.84 ERA, 44 IP, 9 ER, 6 BB, 49 K, 0.80 WHIP
- Career vs. Mets: 5-4, 3.64 ERA, 89 IP, 36 ER, 4 HR, 19 BB, 85 K, 1.17 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 14 starts
Megill (4-5, 4.08 ERA) makes his 14th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 10-1 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 2-3, 3.68 ERA, 44 IP, 18 ER, 4 HR, 1.20 WHIP, .221 OBA, 17 BB, 45 K in 9 appearances (8 starts)
- Last 7 games: 2-1, 3.38 ERA, 34 2/3 IP, 13 ER, 12 BB, 34 K, 1.10 WHIP
- Career vs. Phillies: 3-1, 2.54 ERA, 28 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 17 H, 7 BB, 28 K, 0.85 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -130)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
The PHILLIES (-160) are a solid play as moderate favorites, as they look to spray the champagne and celebrate a division title on national TV Sunday night.
The Mets (+135) have delayed the celebration as long as possible, but the pitching scales are slightly tipped in favor of the visitors with Wheeler on the bump.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more adventurous, play PHILLIES -1.5 (+110) at plus-money rather than going with the moneyline.
Philadelphia has managed 10 victories in the past 17 games since Sept. 4, and 7 of those victories have come by 2 or more runs. So, if you like the Phils to get the win, you should like them to cover the run line, too.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-130) is a solid play in this series finale, but it was a much better play when it opened at 7.5 at plus-money.
There is a lot on the line, and this should have a playoff feel in the Sunday Night Game of the Week. The Under is 5-1 in Wheeler’s past 6 starts for the Phillies. And, for the Mets, the total has gone low in 3 of Megill’s previous 5 starting assignments.
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