The New York Mets (29-27) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (25-30) to Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-0
The Phillies have struggled as of late, losing 6 of their last 9 games. Philadelphia is just 11-20 on the road this season.
New York is 14-9 at home this season. The Mets have won 9 of their last 13 games. They are on a 7-game home winning streak.
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Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Walker (4-2, 5.57 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 53 1/3 innings.
- Phillies are 7-4 in his 11 starters
- Allowed a season-high 10 hits against the Braves in his last start
- Spent the last 2 seasons with the Mets and earned his lone All-Star appearance with the club in 2021
Scherzer (4-2, 3.54 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 3.54 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.
- The 38-year-old 3-time Cy Young winner hasn’t been an All-Star the last 2 seasons
- Mets are 6-2 in his starts
- Has allowed just 2 ER over his last 3 starts (18 IP).
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Mets have gotten 2 outstanding pitching performances in this series. While those may continue, the Phillies’ bats should heat up at some point.
There’s too much talent not to. Philadelphia has played well with Walker on the mound, but it just isn’t quite even value to play it to win outright at (+145). Ultimately, this is a PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES +1.5 (-145).
The juice is there, but the Mets have not been good as a favorite this season. They are just 12-29 on the run line as a favorite. New York is 4-13 on the run line as a favorite at home.
Scherzer has given up at least 6 hits in 2 of his last 4 starts as well. The Phillies have only been swept 3 times this season and should be able to bounce back Thursday with Walker on the mound.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).
If there’s one thing both teams have been good at, especially in the 1st 2 games, it is hitting the Under. Philadelphia is 23-28-4 O/U this season and 1-3 O/U in its last 4 games.
It has scored just 1 run in the last 2 games against the Mets. The Mets have scored just 6. New York is 5-28-3 O/U this season and 3-4 O/U in its last 7.
With 2 strong pitchers on the mound, take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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