The Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) play the middle contest of a 3-game series with the New York Mets (28-27) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0; New York won season series 14-5 in 2022
The Phillies suffered a 2-0 loss in the series opener Tuesday night in Queens. It was Philadelphia’s 1st shutout loss since May 14 in Colorado, and the 5th time the Phils have been blanked this season.
Philadelphia has won just 2 of its last 9 games on the road, while cashing at a 2-5 clip in the last 7 games inside the NL East. The Phils are also 1-4 in the last 5 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.
New York had allowed 21 runs in the final 2 games of the road series against the Rockies, so the shutout back at sea level was nice. It was the 1st shutout win for the Mets since May 5 at home against Colorado and the 4th shutout victory this season.
The Mets have won 6 in a row, while going 7-2 in the last 9 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. New York is 5-2 in the past 7 tries after posting a victory, too.
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Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in an 8-5 road loss Thursday vs. the Atlanta Braves
- 2023 road splits: 2-2, 5.02 ERA (43 IP, 24 ER) with a .244 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 road win Thursday vs. the Chicago Cubs
- 2023 home splits: 0-1, 10.24 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 5 BB, 4 K and a .289 OBA in 2 starts
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Mets 3
Moneyline
The PHILLIES (-125) are a strong play on the road, as they look for a bounce back after getting blanked.
Phils OF Bryce Harper should be rested, as he and his teammates did not play on Memorial Day, and he was given a scheduled day off Tuesday, too, after playing every day since May 2.
I like the Philadelphia offense to get it done against Carrasco. SS Trea Turner has rolled up 6 hits, including 3 doubles and 3 RBI, in just 8 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander. Look for the Phils to roll.
Run line/Against the spread
The PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) are a solid play on the run line, as they look to bounce back, although Nola does have a 4.59 ERA which is a little concerning.
While Philadelphia has failed to cover the run line as a favorite in 4 straight, including 2 outright losses, I just don’t trust Carrasco. Plus, the Mets +1.5 (-160) are just 1-2 on the run line in 3 games as an underdog since May 3.
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Over/Under
The OVER 8.5 (-120) is a solid play in the middle game.
I expressed my concern about Carrasco, who has a 6.75 ERA, Nola has been very giving lately, too. He served up 3 homers last time out in Atlanta, and he has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his past 7 starts dating back to mid-April.
In fact, as far as the player props are concerned, I like both CARRASCO OVER 2.5 RUNS (-130) and NOLA OVER 2.5 RUNS (+105) for an added bonus.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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