The Philadelphia Phillies (23-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-19) play the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East series Friday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0
Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 and heads into Friday’s game on a 5-game road losing skid. The Phillies are just 2-9 away from home since April 30.
The Braves won 11 of 19 games vs. the Phils last season. Atlanta has lost just 1 season series against Atlanta since 2018.
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Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Jared Shuster
Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start this season. He owns a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.
- Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate 1.010 OPS against him
- Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
- Gets a lot of ground balls but has been hurt by an 18.6% home run/fly ball rate
Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.
- Facing a Philadelphia club that owns a whiff-laden .704 OPS vs. lefties (.757 OPS vs. righties)
- The 24-year-old rookie went past 5 innings for the 1st time in his big league career last time out, logging 6 innings of 1-run ball vs. the Seattle Mariners Sunday
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-138) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Braves — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — may well be a couple of games or so too far out over their skis.
Philly is a lean, but look to the Run Line for better value.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-138).
The pricing here makes for some leverage, partially because Atlanta plays a lot of 1-run games.
The Phillies are averaging 4.30 runs per game (RPG), down from the 4.61 RPG they averaged a year ago. Philadelphia’s offense in recent losses has been overly impacted by poor numbers in clutch at-bats.
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Over/Under
This figure is predictably close to where the season averages — runs for and against — intersect. It is a fair number here: PASS.
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