I think just about everyone had the same question after the Patriots were blown out in Houston on Sunday night: Is Tom Brady washed? Like for real this time?
And I think all of us non-Patriots fans — and the segment of the fanbase that isn’t delusional — came away with the same answer: Yes.
Sort of.
Kinda.
Probably.
Of course, everyone is hesitant to come out and say he’s cooked because we’ve seen it backfire so often. But, statistically speaking, Brady has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league over the last few months. The 42-year-old ranks 19th in QBR. He ranks 29th in completion percentage. 28th in yards-per-attempt. 26th in success rate. The results have been ugly.
Sure, you can blame the lack of production on his supporting cast, but even the stats that Brady is mostly responsible for paint a bleak picture. He ranks 26th in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. His completion percentage over expectation is sitting at -0.4%, which also ranks 26th per Next Gen Stats. That means Brady is completing fewer passes than we should expect based on the separation of his receivers, the pressure he’s facing, the length of his attempts as well as other factors. You cannot put this all on his teammates. The offense, as a whole, is bad. The numbers say Brady is making it worse.
But here’s the good news for Patriots fans: This isn’t some recent development. The Brady we’re seeing in 2019 looks a lot like the Brady we saw in 2018 and we all know how that season ended. His rate stats were better, but the team around him was also better. The stats that he actually controls, like on-target throw percentage and CPOE, are essentially the same as they were a season ago.
And now the bad news: Last season, the Pats coaching staff was eventually able to devise an approach that took a lot of the playmaking burden off Brady. New England started utilizing more heavy personnel, which improved their play-action game and helped to create mismatches that Brady could easily exploit. As I wrote a few weeks ago, that strategy hasn’t been very effective in 2019.
I suggested the Patriots could go back to the spread sets they thrived out of at the end of the last decade, but I don’t know if that’s even a viable solution with Brady lacking the precision that allowed him to dink-and-dunk his way down the field every drive.
When we’re trying to figure out if a quarterback is washed up, the first thing we look at is arm strength. Well, the signs were there against the Texans that Brady’s arm is weaker. There were plenty of ugly throws, but these ones stood out to me.
This deep stop route gave Brady all sorts of trouble. He put a lot on this throw and still forced his receiver to track back a few extra yards and make a diving catch out of bounds.
This corner route is a throw Brady used to make with ease. Now he’s sailing it.
How about this pass up the seam to Julian Edelman? It’s a touchdown, but Brady leaves it short and turns what should be a wide-open catch for his receiver into a contested one.
Brady’s deep ball now seems to max out at 50 yards. Anything over 50 and the ball just dies in the air. His receivers have given him opportunities deep, and Brady has not been able to cash in.
But the deep ball problems should be the least of the Patriots’ concerns. It’s the lack of precision on the short passes that have really limited the offense. On quick passing attempts (those that come on dropbacks of three or fewer steps), Brady’s numbers are down across the board, per Sports Info Solutions. His completion percentage is down four percentage points. His on-target throw percentage is down five. And his passer rating has dropped a full 10 points.
The advanced metrics are even worse: On drops of three steps or fewer, Brady has compiled just 0.2 expected points added, per Sports Info Solutions. That’s for the whole season. Lamar Jackson is averaging 0.23 EPA per ATTEMPT.
When Brady is at his best, he’s hitting his receivers in stride and setting them up to do damage after the catch. Well, that’s not happening in 2019. We’re seeing more throws like this, where the placement forces Mohamad Sanu to turn back to catch the ball, which allows the defender to take him down short of the line to gain.
Here, a slightly off-target throw forces Edelman to go to the ground instead of picking up more yardage.
These still go down as completions, but yards are being left on the field. As a result, the Patriots are averaging just 4.79 yards after the catch, which ranks 27th in the NFL. That’s Brady’s lowest ranking since the league started tracking the stat in 2006.
In that regard, Brady isn’t helping out his receivers, but that goes both ways. Outside of Edelman, nobody is able to get open. First-round pick N’Keal Harry evaporates against any press coverage. Mohamad Sanu can’t run away from anybody. Rookie Jakobi Meyers looks lost for the most part. Benjamin Watson is so old that he goes by the name Benjamin.
It doesn’t take Bill Belichick to devise a gameplan to stop this group. The Texans just bracketed Edelman all night and forced Brady to go to his second and third reads. In the past, that would not have been a problem, but Brady is starting to look like a 42-year who doesn’t want to get hit.
And this shows up in his numbers against pressure. These numbers tend to fluctuate for all QBs year-to-year, but Brady has always performed well under pressure. In 2019, he’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league under pressure. Only Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph have a lower total EPA this season.
It appears plyometrics start to lose their effectiveness around age 42 because Brady is not moving like he used to.
This just doesn’t look the same. When Brady has struggled in the past, it was more about what was going on around him and you could still see that elite quarterback on tape. That’s no longer the case. It’s a crappy offense and Brady looks like he belongs in it.
At this point, Brady is a lot like Kirk Cousins. Give him a good offensive line and some open receivers to throw to, and he’ll make the right play. But ask him to elevate an underwhelming supporting cast, and you’ll get some ugly results.
Unless the Patriots go full heel and sign the seemingly untouchable Antonio Brown, there are no more personnel moves to be made. This supporting cast isn’t getting any better, so it’s up to the coaches to come up with an answer for the offense. Belichick and Josh McDaniels figured it out last season and won a Super Bowl. Maybe they’ll do it again and get Brady back on track before the playoffs.
But what if they don’t? With Brady seemingly headed for free agency after the season, we may have seen the last of No. 12 playing at a high level in a Patriots uniform.
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