Sean McVay has a big decision to make when it comes to resting the Rams’ starters in Week 18.
To rest or not to rest. That is the question.
It’s a question that’s been posed to NFL coaches hundreds of times over the years, and there isn’t exactly a right answer. Sean McVay will have to make this difficult decision for the second straight season when the Los Angeles Rams host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18.
As the NFC West champions, the Rams are guaranteed to play a home game in the first round of the playoffs. They don’t yet know whether they’ll be the No. 3 or 4 seed, or which team they’ll face in the wild-card round. It’s guaranteed to be one of four teams, though: Vikings, Lions, Packers, Commanders.
Because their seed is still to be determined, Week 18 isn’t completely meaningless for the Rams. If they win, they’re the No. 3 seed. If they lose and the Bucs win, they’re the No. 4. So should Los Angeles play to win in the season finale or should McVay rest his starters as he did in 2017 and 2023?
There’s a case for and against each decision, making it a tough call for McVay to make.
Why they should rest their starters
Avoiding injuries: There’s obviously the benefit of avoiding any potential injuries, which is the primary reason any team would rest its starters. There would be nothing worse for the Rams than Matthew Stafford, Puka Naua, Kyren Williams or one of their most important players getting hurt in Week 18 right before the playoffs, causing them to miss a week or more of postseason action.
Valuable rest: Not only will resting starters avoid possible injuries, but it will give players a much-needed week off, similar to how the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. The Rams have played a game in 11 straight weeks since their Week 6 bye, so it’s been a long and grueling stretch. Players would benefit from getting a week off, giving them fresh legs for the start of the playoffs.
Playoff seeding: As far as seeding goes, the Rams might prefer to face the Lions or Vikings. They took the Lions to overtime in Week 1 with a makeshift offensive line, no Puka Nacua for half the game and a defense that was playing its first game together. It’s not unreasonable to think the Rams can beat the Lions at full strength. They already beat the Vikings earlier this season, too, so they know they can go toe-to-toe with Minnesota.
Resting doesn’t ensure a loss: The Rams resting their starters doesn’t guarantee them a loss. Jimmy Garoppolo and the backups are more than capable of beating the Seahawks, who could also take a cautious approach to the finale with nothing to play for. So there’s a realistic scenario where the Rams rest their starters and still win to secure the No. 3 seed.
Why they shouldn’t rest their starters
Offense is a mess: Anyone who’s watched the Rams in the last three weeks knows the offense is not ready for the playoffs. They’ve scored just three total touchdowns and only 44 points in the last three games, which is the same number of points they scored against the Bills in Week 14 alone. The offense could use some live reps against the Seahawks in hopes of getting on track before the playoffs because it’s going to be hard to beat anyone when you’re scoring fewer than 20 points.
Defense is rolling: As poorly as the offense has played in the last three weeks, the defense has been dominant. The Rams have allowed six, nine and nine points in the last three games, completely shutting down the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals. If they were to rest their starters in Week 18, it could kill some of the momentum the defense has built.
More favorable matchups as No. 3 seed: The Rams can still hold onto the No. 3 seed if they lose in Week 18, but only if the Buccaneers somehow also lose to the Saints. If McVay wants to ensure he gets the third seed, he should play everyone and try to beat the Seahawks. Getting the No. 3 spot in the NFC would set up a matchup with the Packers or Commanders, which would seem to be more favorable than facing the Vikings or Lions in Round 1.
Rams could host get extra home playoff game: Say the Rams win their first playoff game as the No. 3 seed and the No. 4 or 5 upsets the No. 1 seed in the divisional round. In that scenario, the Rams would host the NFC Championship Game. Not to put the cart before the horse, but they’re much more likely to have two home playoff games as the No. 3 seed than the No. 4.