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The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets clash Wednesday in Game 4 of their best-of-5 NLDS. First pitch at Citi Field is set for 5:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Mets lead 2-1; Phillies won 7-6 in regular-season series
The Phillies lost 7-2 in Tuesday’s Game 3. Since their final series of the regular season, Philadelphia has slashed a mere .198/.287/.313 (.600 OPS) over its last 6 games.
The Mets went 3-of-8 with runners in scoring position on Tuesday. In its 2 wins this series, New York has gone 7-of-15 (.467) in such situations.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Suarez made 27 starts in the regular season. He went 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 150 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 2 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-1 loss at Washington Nationals Sept. 27
- Career vs. Mets: 4-3, 3.52 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 53 H, 22 BB, 40 K in 16 appearances (9 starts)
- Owns a 1.62 ERA across 33 1/3 IP in career postseason play
Quintana made 31 starts in the regular season, clocking a 10-10 mark with a 3.75 ERA. He logged a 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 170 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 win at Milwaukee Brewers Thursday in NL Wild Card Series
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 3.53 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 59 H, 17 BB, 75 K in 12 starts
- Owns a 2.92 ERA across 24 2/3 IP in postseason play
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
New York is 4-1 over its last 5 games against Philadelphia.
Suarez has scuffled of late. With a drop in velocity and alongside too many walks, the veteran lefty logged a 6.04 ERA in September. And how will he handle the 11-day layoff between starts? In his career Suarez has allowed a .694 OPS; on rest of 6 days or more, that figure balloons to .750.
Quintana, who pitches in front of a rested New York bullpen, is coming off a solid Wild Card start, has a good October history and per ESPN has held current Philadelphia batters to an aggregate .644 OPS.
The Mets are a lean but would be more of a full-value one with a better price. Consider a partial-unit play on the METS (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: No interest here.
Over/Under
With the pitching in this game, including the way both clubs figure to play out relief frames in high-leverage mode, look for runs to be at a premium on a cool, autumn evening in New York.
BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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