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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open their NL Division Series with Game 1 Saturday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Braves won 8-5
Philadelphia advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. Including postseason and since Sept. 18, the Phillies are 11-4. That stretch opened with Philadelphia taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in Atlanta Sept. 18-20.
The NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. The wins were more tilted to the club’s offensive prowess: Atlanta led MLB in scoring (5.85 runs per game). The Braves’ 4.42 RPG allowed ranked 14th. Since Sept. 11, Atlanta pitching has been tagged with a 6.08 ERA.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings across 22 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-6 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
- 2023 road stats: 3-3, 2.75 ERA in 59 IP
- Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-2, 3.00 ERA in 48 IP
- Owns a 1.23 ERA across 14 2/3 postseason innings
Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts. He authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 8-3, 4.35 ERA in 93 IP
- Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 8-0, 1.90 ERA in 47 1/3 IP
- Only postseason appearance: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 9-1 loss at Phillies Oct. 14, 2022
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Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Nobody hits lefty pitching better than the Braves. Atlanta clubbed an .870 OPS against port-siders during the regular season.
Strider had a solid season line; he was deserving of even better. The young right-hander was partly dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play. But drilling down, we find that Strider was really behind the 8-ball in clutch situations. In inning-leadoff situations, he yielded a .402 BABIP. In all high-leverage scenarios, he was tagged by a .368 BIP.
Atlanta was in this position last year and fell to these Phillies in 4 games. This season, the Braves outscored the Phils 74-58.
If you’re the type of bettor who can’t lay $21 to win $10, this may not be the play for you, but there is value here. Getting Atlanta priced under -215 is real leverage. BACK THE BRAVES (-210).
Run line/Against the spread
Some bettors may like the -1.5-run action more. That’s the side if you don’t want to stick your neck out on the moneyline. But there is risk here, too; just a different kind. Good pitching plus rested bullpens plus a Philadelphia club that has played 53 one-run games (regular season) makes for risk of a tight, low-scoring October affair. PASS.
Over/Under
No lean either way: PASS.
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