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The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday hoping to extend their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 1-0
The Marlins rallied from playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August for a 17-10 September finish and a spot in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003. But Miami starter Jesus Luzardo faltered in Tuesday’s opener, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits. Now the Fish need to win to avoid an early exit.
Philadelphia’s pitching was shaky down the stretch, and the club registered a 4.47 ERA over its last 30 games. But RHP Zach Wheeler and 3 relievers were sharp in allowing just 1 run Tuesday. And the Phillies offense created 4 runs despite going just 3 of 14 with runners in scoring position.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Garrett went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 159 2/3 innings over 30 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-2 road loss vs. New York Mets last Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 2.85 ERA in 79 IP across 15 starts; benefited from a .273 batting average on balls in play
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-1, 4.50 ERA in 24 IP
- Has never pitched in the postseason
Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA this season. He registered a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-2 home win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 26; owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 across last 3 starts
- 2023 home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.77 ERA in 31 IP
- Owns a 4.92 ERA in 25 2/3 postseason innings
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Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade lean for the series. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps, at their base-talent level, an under-.500 club.
The Phils went 49-35 across June, July and August. If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played during that stretch, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.
The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.
The bullpens make for a green check in the Philadelphia column. Including Tuesday’s win, the Phils are 22-11 over their last 33 games at home.
This season, Garrett has clocked 16 IP against Philadelphia. Over those frames, he’s yielded 5 HRs and 12 ER. Nola’s surface numbers were dinged by opponents getting by with a .340 batting average on balls in play.
And then there is the extra-rest issue with which both hurlers are dealing. Over his career, when Garrett pitches on 6-plus days’ rest, he has experienced some control problems while allowing an .805 OPS. Nola’s case is the opposite: the veteran right-hander has held foes under a .600 OPS on such rest the last two years; for his career, he’s yielded just a .624 OPS on long rest,
BACK THE PHILLIES (-150).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Consider a Phillies -1.5 play if the return gets to +145 or greater.
Over/Under
No signals pointing to value on either side of this total. PASS.
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