The Miami Marlins (4-7) play the 2nd outing in a 3-game road series against the Philadelphia Phillies (4-6) Tuesday. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 1-0. Phillies won the season series 12-7 in 2022.
The Marlins were slammed 15-3 in the series opener in Philadelphia on Monday. The Marlins have dropped 3 of the past 4 games overall and have cashed the Over in 3 of those outings, too. The 15 runs allowed were the most all season, but Miami has yielded 5 or more runs in 6 of the past 9 games.
The Phillies broke out the whooping stick Monday, easily producing the most runs they’ve had in a single game this season. Philadelphia had averaged just 2.9 runs per game (RPG) across the previous 8 games since posting 7 runs in the season opener March 30 in Texas.
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Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Luzardo (1-0, 0.71 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 12 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 10 K across 7 IP in a no-decision against the Minnesota Twins Wednesday
- Yielded just 2 ER on 4 H and 2 BB with 9 K across 7 IP in a no-decision Sept. 6 in Philadelphia in his only start against the Phillies in 2022
Nola (0-1, 7.45 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 9 2/3 IP.
- Coughed up 3 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 5 K across 6 IP in a loss on the road against the New York Yankees Wednesday
- Posted a 1-0 record, 1.23 ERA and .179 opponent batting average (OBA) with 26 K across 22 IP in 3 starts vs. Miami in 2022
Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Phillies 5
Moneyline
The MARLINS (+135) were horrendous in Monday’s series opener, but Tuesday is a new day. Nola has been poor for the Phillies so far, and being back in the bandbox which is Citizens Bank Park won’t be super helpful to snapping the right-hander on track.
The Marlins are 8-3 in the past 11 games following a loss while the Phillies are 1-5 in the past 6 games after a win and 1-5 in the past 6 tries against a left-handed starting pitcher.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS +1.5 (-155) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance, and just can’t bring yourself to play the underdog straight up.
However, Miami is just 3-6 on the run line as an underdog so far this season so proceed with caution, but the Phillies are 1-3 on the run line as a favorite so far this season.
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Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (-110) is the lean in this battle in the City of Brotherly Love.
The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games on the road for Miami and is 7-1 in Philadelphia’s past 8 games inside the NL East. The Over is also 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Phillies against teams with a losing overall record, too.
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