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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Utah State Aggies hope to end a rollercoaster year with a win against Georgia State Panthers. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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Who will be more motivated to chase one last W?
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL: Georgia State Panthers (6-6, 4-4 Sun Belt) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6, 4-4 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT
WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID
WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 38 degrees
TV: ESPN
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.
RADIO: The Georgia State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Georgia State Radio Network, including flagship 88.5 FM (WRAS) in Atlanta. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.
SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between Georgia State and Utah State.
LAST GAME: Georgia State lost on the road to Old Dominion, 25-24, while Utah State defeated New Mexico on the road in double overtime, 44-41.
WEBSITES: GeorgiaStateSports.com, the official Georgia State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Georgia State | Utah State
ODDS: Utah State -2.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Utah State by 0.8
FEI PROJECTION: Utah State by 1.0
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Utah State 50.72% win probability (33.11-32.87)
The Utah State Aggies are bowling for the third straight season under head coach Blake Anderson, but they’ll hope to avoid a repeat of last year’s disappointing postseason performance against the Georgia State Panthers in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
For their part, the Panthers are mired in a slump and head into the game without their top offensive weapon, but you never know what might happen when Spuddy Buddy is involved.
Here’s how the Panthers and Aggies can finish their year with a win.
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๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ,๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฌโฒ ๐จ๐ฝ ๐๏ธ#LightItBlue | #BeatUtahState pic.twitter.com/KUXtW6hdiH
— GSU Football (@GeorgiaStateFB) December 20, 2023
Three Keys to a Georgia State Victory
1. Don’t abandon the running game now.
The Panthers boasted one of the Sun Belt’s best running backs throughout the regular season, but first-team all-conference star Marcus Carroll has already bolted to Missouri through the transfer portal and what remains at the position didn’t see a ton of action throughout 2023. The team’s listed starter, Freddie Brock, was a one-time starter at FCS Maine but only had six carries in three games for Georgia State in 2023.
GSU may want to see what he and true freshman Jaylen Carter can do, anyway, since Utah State got pushed hard in the trenches over the last two weeks of the regular season. Both Boise State and New Mexico averaged over seven yards per carry, but the Aggies have just been tested on the ground more frequently than anyone else in the Mountain West, period, seeing an average of 41.6 rushing attempts per game and allowing 4.79 YPC.
2. Make the Aggies offense pay for potential mistakes.
It’s no secret that Utah State has struggled with protecting the football for most of the season, evidenced by the 24 giveaways that are the second-most among Mountain West offenses. It remains to be seen, however, if that will change with Levi Williams under center for the second straight game, but they had just one in the regular season finale against New Mexico.
If GSU is going to put themselves in a position to score an upset, though, they’re going to have to figure out how to keep close tabs on USU’s playmakers. On the one hand, the Panthers defended just 38 passes in 12 regular season games, the fewest in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, they also had rotten fumble luck and recovered just six of 17 balls to hit the turf. When the opportunity arises to flip a field, the Georgia State defense can’t afford to let them slip away.
3. Be the more disciplined team.
Another non-secret is that penalties have frustrated Utah State’s hopes this year just as much as their erratic play on offense. Only four FBS teams had more than the 7.8 penalties per game that the Aggies drew in 2023, and only New Mexico racked up more than USU’s 74.3 penalty yards per game.
Assuming both teams play somewhere close to their average, this is an area where Georgia State could benefit from favorable field position simply by avoiding flags. In the regular season, the Panthers tallied six on average for 53.4 yards per contest.
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๐คซ๐#AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/2I9XpuVW2k
— USU Football (@USUFootball) December 19, 2023
Three Keys to a Utah State Victory
1. Let Jalen Royals do his thing.
Among Utah State’s triumvirate of pass-catching threats, Royals’s breakout campaign could spell trouble for a shaky Georgia State defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Royals had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards in the regular season and posted both a 72.7% contested catch rate and just four drops on 94 total targets.
The Panthers, meanwhile, struggled mightily against opposing quarterbacks down the stretch, allowing a 68.3% completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt, and 14 touchdowns in four November games. In other words, should the junior from Powder Springs, Georgia finish as the game’s offensive MVP, don’t be shocked.
2. Keep Darren Grainger contained.
The Georgia State quarterback will finish his collegiate career as one of the most prolific playmakers in program history, and he’ll provide a test for a Utah State defense that has already seen several mobile signal-callers throughout the season. Grainger might be singular, though, in that he led all Sun Belt quarterbacks with 625 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in addition to completing 67% of his throws at seven yards per attempt.
It may be telling that Grainger hasn’t been as impactful with his legs during the team’s current five-game losing streak, averaging 4.59 yards per carry (before adjusting for sacks). If the MJ Tafisi-led front seven can hold that line, that could bode well for their hopes.
3. Let Levi Williams cook.
You may recall that the last time Williams played in the Potato Bowl, two years ago, he put up video game numbers for Wyoming in a rout of Kent State. That propensity for major damage with his arm and his legs popped again in the last game of this regular season, when he ran for 153 yards and threw for 198 against the Lobos, accounting for five total touchdowns.
Given that he’s soon to prepare for Navy SEAL training, why not give him one more opportunity to do heavy lifting on both fronts? According to CollegeFootballData.com, Georgia State has posted a 20% defensive stuff rate but the 6-foot-5 and 230-pound Williams is a big target to bring down consistently over four quarters. Enabling him to be a threat alongside Robert Briggs, Rahsul Faison, and Davon Booth will only give the Panthers one more thing to worry about.
Prediction
As wildly uneven as the Aggies could be this year, they haven’t had the same kind of struggles that the Panthers have faced and they certainly enter the bowl game much more intact. While it seems safe to bet the over, at least, Utah State should have the offensive firepower to win this one handily.
Utah State 34, Georgia State 21
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