Category: The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell

Five things the San Francisco 49ers must do to win Super Bowl LVIII

If the San Francisco 49ers are to win Super Bowl LVIII, they might want to pay attention to these five advanced scouting points.

Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.

Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the San Francisco 49ers should probably pay close attention to when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs today in Super Bowl LVIII.

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Five things the Kansas City Chiefs must do to win Super Bowl LVIII

If the Kansas City Chiefs are to win Super Bowl LVIII, they might want to pay attention to these five advanced scouting points.

Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.

Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the Kansas City Chiefs should probably pay close attention to when they take on the San Francisco 49ers today in Super Bowl LVIII.

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Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the real star of Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a schematic wizard, but his real superpower is getting his players to buy in without fail.

It was February 3, 2008. Super Bowl XLII, in which the New England Patriots were supposed to complete the second undefeated season in pro football history. Instead, the underdog New York Giants put Tom Brady in a special section of hell with pass-rush concepts that had their defensive linemen moving around gap to gap, and often standing up in NASCAR fronts for which the Patriots seemed to have no answers. Brady was sacked five times, and hit nine more times, completing 29 of 48 passes for 266 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 82.5 in a 17-14 Giants win.

Not what anybody expected from a quarterback — and an offense — that had set the NFL ablaze all season long, but Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had the perfect plan for Brady and the Patriots, and that bore out. Spagnuolo threw the entire buffet at Brady with advanced blitzes, moving linemen, and NASCAR fronts in which as many as all four defensive linemen were standing up pre-snap.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=My0ahKLvxzs

“I remember that game, and watching what they were doing, and I’ve watched it again since,” Super Bowl XLII Most Valuable Player Eli Manning told me on Friday. “He had Antonio Pierce, middle linebacker, and obviously now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. They were flip-flopping blitzes, and I’d never seen that before, where they had a WILL [linebacker]-free safety blitz, and they’d see Brady read it and change protections to pick up that blitz, and they would flip-flop  and roll it to bring a SAM [linebacker] and strong safety. You had free guys hitting Brady, so just mixing in and having that capability and communication and the trust in the defense to do that. To execute it, that’s the first time I’d ever seen that.

“I have great respect for Coach Spagnuolo and all he’s done in his career, his opportunity to win his fourth Super Bowl is impressive, and he always has the threat of blitz. That’s what he brings — exotic blitzes and exotic coverages. It’s a lot of work to get ready to play one of his defenses.”

Fast-forward 15 years, and “Coach Spags” is still doing it his way — perhaps at a higher level than ever before, and he’s now winning Super Bowls with the Kansas City Chiefs. Moreover, he’s doing it now with the NFL’s youngest defense. There are a lot of deep football reasons why the Chiefs’ defense has carried the team to Super Bowl LVIII as the offense has been up and down (to say the least), but there are also personal dynamics between Spagnuolo and his players that mean a lot.

Let’s dive into why Steve Spagnuolo is the real star of Super Bowl LVIII.

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Why 13 (personnel) has become the magic number for the Chiefs’ offense

The Kansas City Chiefs are better in 13 personnel than any other NFL team, and that could be big trouble for the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

When you think of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, a “spread-’em-out” ideology may come to mind with multiple receivers, and perhaps Travis Kelce as the only tight end on the field. But that’s not what this offense was in 2022 under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and that’s not what this offense was in 2023, or is in 2024, under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.

Quite the opposite, and it’s not been gradual, the Chiefs are now the kings of three-tight end sets. 13 personnel, with one back, three tight ends, and one receiver, has become the team’s primary formational constraint. This is clearly something that comes from on high, i.e., Andy Reid.

In the 2022 season, Kansas City led the league in passing out of 13 personnel, and they were ridiculously good at it. Patrick Mahomes had 74 dropbacks out of 13, completing 49 of 64 passes for 716 yards, 326 yards after the catch, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 152.1, which was just about dead solid perfect. Mahomes’ EPA throwing out of 13 was 31.95, which was absolutely preposterous — Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks ranked second at 12.36,

This season, Mahomes has also led the NFL in 13 personnel throws, though the results haven’t been quite as productive, which is a reflection of the entire Chiefs’ passing game. Mahomes has had 50 dropbacks out of 13, completing 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards, 188 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 87.3, and an EPA of 1.81.

Where the Chiefs have upped their 13 personnel production this season is in the run game, and especially with second-year back Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco leads the NFL in 13 personnel carries with 53, gaining 226 yards, 140 yards after contact, and scoring one touchdown. Mahomes has also run eight times for 52 yards this season out of 13 personnel, so that’s something the San Francisco 49ers will want to consider in Super Bowl LVIII.

On Wednesday, I talked with Matt Nagy about the three-tight end sets, and why the Chiefs are the runaway leaders with all that. As Nagy said, the fact that they do it so much more than any other NFL teams is its own inherent advantage.

“Number one, we feel that we have a good set of tight ends who can do different things. When you’re in 13 personnel, are they receiving tight ends, or are they blocking tight ends, or are they both? We feel like we have a good mix there. So, it starts with personnel.

“The second part is, because there aren’t a lot of teams that do 13 personnel, a lot of defensive coordinators don’t have a lot of calls for 13 personnel. So, they’ve got kind of a limited menu  So now, you can do some different things. If a team shows a multitude of defenses against 13, we take a look at that and decide whether we want to go with it or not. We’ve been that way for a long time.”

Well, here’s the thing. The 49ers have faced three tight ends on just nine of their opponents’ passing attempts, with five catches allowed for 81 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 122.9.

The touchdown was a 31-yarder against the Seahawks in Week 14. The Seahawks motioned tight end Will Dissly across from left to right out of a wing alignment, and this was an interesting example of another way teams can use four-strong – to gain a favorable matchup for the iso receiver on the other side. With Dissly, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and running back Kenneth Walker to the right, and with Fant and Parkinson then running intermediate crossers back over, DK Metcalf had an open one-on-one with cornerback Ambry Thomas as the backside iso. The 49ers could definitely see something like that on Sunday – also, one of the ways the Chiefs stress defenses with four-strong formations is to wind at least one of their tight ends back to the other side.

In the run game, the 49ers have faced rushing attempts out of 13 personnel just 13 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was a 16-yard Kareem Hunt run against the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Cleveland motioned tight end Jordan Akins across from right to left, keeping David Njoku and Harrison Bryant on the right side. Receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell were the ones who helped crack that run open for a 16-yard touchdown.

Based on what Nagy said regarding what defenses do (or do not do) against the Chiefs’ 13 personnel packages in the pass and run games, we should probably expect to see Kansas City to turn it all the way up to 13 in the Super Bowl.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys got into why the Chiefs’ 13 personnel stuff is so effective, and what the 49ers might want to try to work against it.

You can watch the “Xs and Os” Super Bowl Preview episode here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

The Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII

From Jauan Jennings to L’Jarius Sneed, here are 10 underrated players for the 49ers and Chiefs who could make all the difference in Super Bowl LVIII.

For every Super Bowl star you’d expect, there’s a player who comes out of nowhere in a relative sense to take over the biggest game of his life. That was just as true for Green Bay Packers receiver Max McGee in Super Bowl I as it was for Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco in Super Bowl LVII.

For the upcoming matchup between the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, we’d like to present 10 players — five from each team — whose deeds on the field have gone relatively unnoticed, but every one of them could be the one to take his team’s fortunes over the top.

Here are the Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII.

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The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Previewing Super Bowl LVIII

It’s time for Super Bowl LVIII, which means that it’s time for Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar to dive into the Chiefs-49ers matchups with tape and advanced metrics.

It’s nearly time for the biggest game of the NFL season, which means it’s time for our guys Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, to do a very deep dive on Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, using all kinds of tape study and advanced metrics.

Here, the guys cover these topics, as well as many others:

  • Why run defense for each team could be the key to the entire game, and why Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco might unlock it all for Kansas City.
  • How Christian McCaffrey became the NFL’s best and most prolific zone runner.
  • How Steve Spagnuolo might blitz Brock Purdy, who has been amazing against the blitz all season.
  • Why Patrick Mahomes, who in the past has been similarly “unblitzable” in recent seasons, hasn’t been that in 2023.
  • Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense is far more multiple than some people think — especially in coverage — and why that could be a problem for Mr. Mahomes.
  • The Chiefs’ four-strong formations and use of 13 personnel, and how those two things have come to define Andy Reid’s offense to a great degree.
  • Why linebackers for both teams will be so important.
  • The Secret Superstars of Super Bowl LVIII.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

 

Why “four-strong” has become the perfect equation for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are wizards at breaking defenses with four-strong receiver routes. Here’s what the 49ers will deal with.

LAS VEGAS — The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been aligned to its optimal outcome all season long, but one thing that’s worked all the way is their 3×1 receiver alignments. Patrick Mahomes is brilliant at reading defenders put in conflict with the route concepts out of trips and bunch sets. This season, including the playoffs, Mahomes has 28 explosive passes out of 3×1 sets, averaging 31.4 yards per play, and 4.8 yards of separation per play to the intended receiver. No matter the coverage or pressure, the Chiefs create all kinds of havoc in those 3×1 sets.

Those results are further magnified when the call is to send a back or a fourth receiver into the area where the three bunched receivers are. Then, opposing defenses are dealing with Andy Reid’s “four-strong” concepts, and the numbers game rarely, if ever, favors the defense.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

For examples, let’s begin with Mahomes’ 21-yard completion to Travis Kelce with 43 seconds left in the first half of the AFC Championship game against the Baltimore Ravens. This was against Cover-3, with linebacker Roquan Smith dropping from a nose-shade alignment to bump Justin Watson on his post. Cornerback Ronald Darby bailed Marquez Valdes-Scantling outside, and that left Kyle Hamilton as the unfortunate guy to deal with the negative effects of the four-on-three advantage in the Chiefs’ favor. Hamilton’s focus was split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s flat route, and Travis Kelce’s corner route. When Hamilton bit on Edwards-Helaire underneath, Mahomes had the easy completion to Kelce up top.

The Chiefs aren’t just about getting to four-strong from one side, through — they can also motion and roll into it in other ways. On this 45-yard pass from Mahomes to receiver Richie James against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16, James and Travis Kelce ran matching 15-yard in-cuts, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran a vertical route up the mean, and Rashee Rice worked the shallow cross from left to right. Rice occupied linebacker Robert Spillane and slot defender Nate Hobbs in the Raiders’ Cover-4, while Kelce took cornerback Amik Robertson and safety Trevon Moehrig over the top. With all that clearance, it was James against cornerback Jonathan Jones outside right. Jones was playing bail coverage to the boundary, and he kept going vertical when James cut inside, and he had a cow pasture of open field after the catch.

This is a great way to work into a Dagger concept against two-deep coverage.

This 27-yard pass to Justin Watson against the Denver Broncos in Week 8 was four-strong with yet another different flavor — and another way to defeat two-deep coverage. Here, the Chiefs were in a 3×1 set with Watson motioning to trips right. That motion put Denver’s Cover-2 coverage in a problem spot, with Watson getting wiiiiiiide open on the corner route. Cornerback Damarri Mathis probably would have preferred that Watson stay outside. Mahomes could have also hit Jerick McKinnon on the release route from the backfield for a big gain.

It’s really tough to beat four-strong, but 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is aware of the challenge, and he has a few ideas. For one thing, you can sit in zones and wait for Mahomes to pick you apart by reading the defender in conflict as he did with Kyle Hamilton. That’s one example of those ad-lib routes Kelce and Mahomes do so well because their communication is just about psychic at this point. Then, as Wilks said last week, you’ve got to keep your guys on their guys.

“We still have to have a great plan. We’ve still got to execute and finish. When they start to ad-lib we’ve got to do a great job of really plastering the man within our zone and really straining to make sure we finish the rep.”

Easier in theory than in practice, and don’t be surprised if, in the most important game of the year, Andy Reid busts out four-strong in more ways than one.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Previewing the NFL’s conference championship games

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get you ready for Ravens-Chiefs, and 49ers-Lions. It’s conference championship time!

And then, there were four! It’s time for the conference championship round of the NFL playoffs, deciding which teams will play in Super Bowl LVIII. Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, are here to get you ready for the most interesting matchups.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

  • How will Lamar Jackson deal with Steve Spagnuolo’s unconventional blitzes?
  • Can Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco take over this game, and will “pin/pull” continue to be a thing?
  • Will Mike Macdonald’s Ravens defense cause Patrick Mahomes to hesitate in his process with all those coverage disguises?
  • How will Baltimore counter the Chiefs’ effective use of heavy personnel in the run and pass games?

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

  • Jared Goff has become much more than just a game manager, so how will Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense deal with that?
  • Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a brilliant job coaching up a cornerback-light roster. But will that turn into a pumpkin against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense?
  • Is Brock Purdy’s bad game against the Packers in the divisional round indicative of vulnerabilities that can be exploited here?
  •  Will the Lions’ rookies on both sides of the ball be the ultimate difference in this game?

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing both conference championship games in detail, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

How the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, and 49ers get big plays out of heavy personnel

The Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, and 49ers all get more explosive plays out of heavy personnel than you might think, and here’s how they do it.

We tend to think of the modern NFL passing game as heavily dependent on multi-receiver sets, spread out to foil opposing defenses. But more and more, modern offensive coordinators are finding ways to use heavier personnel and some old-school ideas to score points.

All four of the remaining teams in the playoff picture — the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers — have patented ways to break defenses in half with more tight ends, fullbacks, and extra offensive linemen than you might imagine.

You’ll see a lot of these concepts in Sunday’s conference championship games, and here they are. In case you’re not familiar with how numbers and personnel packages, here’s how that works.

  • 10 Personnel = 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRs
  • 11 Personnel = 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs
  • 12 Personnel = 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs
  • 13 Personnel = 1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR
  • 21 Personnel = 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs
  • 22 Personnel = 2 RBs, 2 TEs, 1 WR

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys talked a lot about how all four teams will use their own ideas to set themselves up for possible Super Bowl berths.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing both conference championship games in detail, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

The Deebo Factor, and why the 49ers desperately need it

Deebo Samuel is the one player the 49ers need to get to the Super Bowl. Here’s why his health is crucial in the NFC Championship game.

One key reason the San Francisco 49ers have such a ridiculously efficient offense is that there are stars all over the roster. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and quarterback Brock Purdy have all established themselves as true tone-setters in Kyle Shanahan’s system, and that tends to manifest itself more often than not. And if you’re aware of a better left tackle than Trent Williams, that would certainly be breaking news.

But there’s no one player who does more to define Shanahan’s offense than receiver Deebo Samuel. That’s clear an obvious both on tape, and with the on/off splits.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Samuel has missed 320 plays this season, and he’s been on the field for 676 plays. When he’s on the field, the 49ers have an Offensive EPA of 0.18. Without him, 0.01. San Francisco’s Passing EPA with Samuel? 0.26. Without him? 0.06. And their Rushing EPA is 0.09 with Samuel; -0.05 without. Both in the run and the pass games, Samuel’s presence is crucial in any game, and certainly in Sunday’s NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions.

Samuel went out early in the 49ers’ divisional round win over the Green Bay Packers, and the difference was all the difference. Purdy was not as confident in his reads and throws without Samuel, and the offense lost an entire dimension without him.

“Yeah, it’s huge for us,” Purdy said this week about Samuel’s presence on the field. “Deebo is a game-changer. He is one of the best in the NFL at what he does. So obviously, for him to be able to play, all of us are like, all right, Deebo brings some juice and energy and we’ve got his back and so obviously seeing him run around at practice and look good for us, it’s like, all right, it’s on. So, we’re excited for him.”

Let’s start with Samuel’s explosive potential in the screen game. This 15-yard play on a tunnel screen against the Packers with 6:42 left in the first quarter was a simple example of, “Let’s get the ball to Deebo, and wait for good things to happen.” Which they usually do.

The 49ers have gained 5.6 yards per rushing attempt with Samuel on the field this season, and 4.1 yards per carry without him. Part of that is because Samuel himself can be a great runner out of the backfield, as he showed on this 11-yard sweep scamper against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18…

…and Samuel will also open gaps for other players, as he did on this 23-yard McCaffrey run against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. Samuel sealed the inside edge for McCaffrey and took safety Jamal Adams to the shadow realm.

Not that Samuel is a primary deep receiver, but he can do that, as well. On this 40-yard catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, the 49ers set up in 11 personnel with a three-man vertical concept in which Samuel and receiver Jauan Jennings crossed over, and nobody in Tampa Bay’s Cover-3 accounted for No. 19.

Not the way the Bucs drew it up, I’d imagine. And when Samuel does catch the ball downfield, he’s not done yet — he’s one of the NFL’s best yards-after-catch receivers. 546 of his 916 receiving yards have come after the catch this season, the most among San Francisco’s roster of receivers.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get deeper into what Samuel means to this offense, and how the Lions might deal with it all.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing both conference championship games in detail, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.