One key reason the San Francisco 49ers have such a ridiculously efficient offense is that there are stars all over the roster. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and quarterback Brock Purdy have all established themselves as true tone-setters in Kyle Shanahan’s system, and that tends to manifest itself more often than not. And if you’re aware of a better left tackle than Trent Williams, that would certainly be breaking news.
But there’s no one player who does more to define Shanahan’s offense than receiver Deebo Samuel. That’s clear an obvious both on tape, and with the on/off splits.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Samuel has missed 320 plays this season, and he’s been on the field for 676 plays. When he’s on the field, the 49ers have an Offensive EPA of 0.18. Without him, 0.01. San Francisco’s Passing EPA with Samuel? 0.26. Without him? 0.06. And their Rushing EPA is 0.09 with Samuel; -0.05 without. Both in the run and the pass games, Samuel’s presence is crucial in any game, and certainly in Sunday’s NFC Championship game against the Detroit Lions.
Samuel went out early in the 49ers’ divisional round win over the Green Bay Packers, and the difference was all the difference. Purdy was not as confident in his reads and throws without Samuel, and the offense lost an entire dimension without him.
“Yeah, it’s huge for us,” Purdy said this week about Samuel’s presence on the field. “Deebo is a game-changer. He is one of the best in the NFL at what he does. So obviously, for him to be able to play, all of us are like, all right, Deebo brings some juice and energy and we’ve got his back and so obviously seeing him run around at practice and look good for us, it’s like, all right, it’s on. So, we’re excited for him.”
Let’s start with Samuel’s explosive potential in the screen game. This 15-yard play on a tunnel screen against the Packers with 6:42 left in the first quarter was a simple example of, “Let’s get the ball to Deebo, and wait for good things to happen.” Which they usually do.
The 49ers have gained 5.6 yards per rushing attempt with Samuel on the field this season, and 4.1 yards per carry without him. Part of that is because Samuel himself can be a great runner out of the backfield, as he showed on this 11-yard sweep scamper against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18…
…and Samuel will also open gaps for other players, as he did on this 23-yard McCaffrey run against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. Samuel sealed the inside edge for McCaffrey and took safety Jamal Adams to the shadow realm.
Not that Samuel is a primary deep receiver, but he can do that, as well. On this 40-yard catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, the 49ers set up in 11 personnel with a three-man vertical concept in which Samuel and receiver Jauan Jennings crossed over, and nobody in Tampa Bay’s Cover-3 accounted for No. 19.
Not the way the Bucs drew it up, I’d imagine. And when Samuel does catch the ball downfield, he’s not done yet — he’s one of the NFL’s best yards-after-catch receivers. 546 of his 916 receiving yards have come after the catch this season, the most among San Francisco’s roster of receivers.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get deeper into what Samuel means to this offense, and how the Lions might deal with it all.
New "Xs and Os with @gregcosell" on @TheNFLWire: It looks like all systems go for Deebo Samuel in the NFC Championship game, and that's a HUGE deal for the @49ers. No one player does more to define Kyle Shanahan's offense at its best. pic.twitter.com/xbvoKcbrEL
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 27, 2024
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing both conference championship games in detail, right here:
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