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4-Down Territory: Tackling the NFL’s most pressing topics

In 4-Down Territory, Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling tackle the NFL’s most pressing topics on a weekly basis.

Every week, in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics. On this week’s video, Doug and Luke talk about (and occasionally disagree about) the following:

The list of reasons for the Jaguars to move on from Urban Meyer seems to grow every week. Last week, there was the report from Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network in which it was revealed that Meyer calls his coaches “losers.” that he lied about the reasons for benching running back James Robinson (probably the team’s best player), and players are apparently close to open revolt. Why is it that college coaches struggle so consistently with the rigors of the NFL?
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy last Saturday, and there’s no doubt he’s had a great season. But should he have taken the trophy home, or was this the year it should have gone to a more deserving defensive player?
Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas is on his sixth NFL team, and he’s never been successful before Green Bay signed him off the Cardinals’ practice squad in October. Douglas recently said that he didn’t learn to watch tape the right way until last season, which is a pretty remarkable thing to admit – and a rather damning indictment of his former coaches. Now, Douglas has pick-sixes in two straight games, the first Packers player since Herb Adderley in 1965 to achieve that. Which other players around the NFL deserve a better opportunity in a new home?
The Chiefs started the season 3-4 with what may have been the NFL’s worst defense. Since then, they’ve rolled up six straight wins, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points in a game, they’ve allowed less than 10 points in four of their last five games, and they absolutely demolished the Raiders, 48-9, last Sunday. How does a team go from having the NFL’s worst defense to perhaps having the NFL’s best defense in such short order?

Watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here!

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Film study: Should Eagles start Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew?

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the tape to determine whether the Eagles should consider a change at QB.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew just got his first start since Week 15 of last season, and if you’ve been paying attention, you weren’t surprised that Minshew came out hot.

Minshew doesn’t just have good starts — he has great starts.

As a rookie in the 2019 season opener with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Minshew replaced the injured Nick Foles and completed 22 out of 25 attempts while throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. In last season’s opener, Minshew helped the Jaguars get their only win of the season by throwing an almost-perfect game, going 19 for 20 for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts. Over the course of Minshew’s career, he has a 94.4 passer rating, 39 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

If there was ever a perfect time for Minshew to start, this past Sunday’s game against the New York Jets was it. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed (4,762), yards allowed per game (396.8), points allowed (367) and points allowed per game (30.6).

The game plan was simple: Run the ball often and throw high-percentage passes. The running game was a big reason why the Eagles were able to grind out a 33-18 victory over the Jets. Miles Sanders had a season-high 24 carries for 120 yards, and rookie Kenneth Gainwell added a season-high 54 yards and one touchdown.

Minshew started the game with back-to-back touchdown drives and 11 consecutive completions. He finished 20-of-25 passing for 242 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, leaving some fans infatuated with the idea of Minshew replacing Jalen Hurts as the starter.

This is not new. Being from the Philadelphia area myself, I’ve watched fans become smitten with Koy Detmer, Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb, and, of course, Foles, who guided the Eagles to victory in Super Bowl LII.

But there is a reason why the Eagles didn’t reveal their starting quarterback until kickoff. They almost certainly didn’t want the Jets to be able to prepare specifically for Minshew. Not to diminish Minshew’s performance — he got the win, and that is what you pay a backup to do. But make no mistake, Hurts’ diverse skill set gives opposing defenses much bigger headaches.

The Eagles’ offensive game plan against the Jets was relatively simple, and most of the passes thrown by Minshew (aside from busted coverages downfield) were kept short. He threw 16 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and only took three shots deep downfield.

To be clear, Minshew made some impressive audibles, went through his reads and exploited mismatches. On a third-an-10 in the third quarter, Minshew had one of his best throws of the day.

As soon as the ball was snapped, Minshew went through two reads, and even though the slant was open across the middle, he kept his eyes downfield to ensure he could convert the third down with a second-level pass. He then squared his shoulders while rolling out and hit Quez Watkins with a beautiful throw right to the chest in stride for 28 yards.

That said, Hurts is fully capable of making the same play.

In the clip below from Week 10 against the Denver Broncos, tight end Dallas Goedert ran a route similar to the one Watkins ran in the previous clip against man coverage. Hurts then did a fantastic job rolling out of the pocket and hitting his receiver in stride at the second level.

One of the biggest differences between Hurts and Minshew is the deep ball. When we look at Minshew’s deep throws in the Jets game, he wasn’t able to keep the same velocity on the ball.

On a touchdown pass to Goedert on Sunday, Minshew did a great job waiting for the play to develop. But when we look at the depth of the pass, we see that the receiver had to come back to the ball slightly in the clip below.

In the clip below from Week 11 against the Saints, Goedert ran the same type of rub route, and Hurts made a great throw.

When we contrast the two throws, the difference in velocity is what stands out most.

In the clip below, Minshew sidesteps into the path of a defender. This forces him to lean back as he throws, taking away some of his power due to suboptimal mechanics.

Now check out a similar situation and throw by Hurts.

In the second half against the Jets, Minshew started to check down frequently instead of looking toward the second level.

We aren’t taking anything away from Minshew on the completion here. This was great placement, and his accuracy is undeniable. Minshew has only 11 interceptions in his career for a reason. He doesn’t take risks to move the ball farther downfield. Instead, he often settles for the shorter pass.

By contrast, let’s look at a clip below of Hurts from Week 4 against the Chiefs, when wideout DeVonta Smith runs the same corner route. Hurts gets the ball there even though Goedert is open underneath.

Although Goedert enjoyed his best game of the season against the Jets with six receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Minshew left some missed opportunities on the field. When the Jets defense started covering the underneath routes, it left moments of separation at the second level — but Minshew didn’t see them.

Whether Hurts is the long-term answer for the Eagles is a debate for another day, but he gives the team a better chance to win than Minshew.

Hurts ranks second among NFL quarterbacks with 695 rushing yards this season, behind only Lamar Jackson. Minshew provides a change of pace, but so would just about any other quarterback.

When defenses start scheming for Minshew, the Eagles will be left with a one-dimensional offense.

With Hurts, you have a playmaker.

Bill Belichick’s Monday night game plan further proves, reveals his rare genius

The Patriots’ run-heavy approach against the Bills wasn’t just a one-game gimmick — it was another illustration of Bill Belichick’s situational genius.

In 1950, the NFL welcomed three teams — the Baltimore Colts, San Francisco 49ers, and Cleveland Browns from the All America Football Conference — to its environs. The Browns, led by Paul Brown, had been the AAFC’s dominant franchise, winning all four league championships, so the NFL decided to pit Brown’s team against the Philadelphia Eagles, the league’s two-time defending NFL champs.

It was supposed to be an upbraiding for the new kids, but it was the exact opposite. Brown directed Otto Graham, his Hall of Fame quarterback, to exploit holes in the middle of Philly’s defense, and Graham put up a stat line that wouldn’t be out of place for a quarterback in 2021 — 21 completions in 38 attempts for 346 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Browns won their NFL opener, 35-10.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOgmjbfF4s&t=120s

Eagles head coach Earle “Greasy” Neale made some noise before the December 3 rematch about the Browns leaning more on finesse than power, comparing them to a basketball team. This was a major miscalculation on Neale’s part. In that 13-7 Browns victory, Paul Brown’s team ran the ball 41 times, gaining just 68 yards, but still winning on a 30-yard pick-six by Warren Lahr, and two field goals by Hall-of-Famer Lou “The Toe” Groza.

The Browns did not technically throw a single pass, though two attempts were called back due to penalties. Brown told his players that they were specifically not to throw a pass as long as the game was tied, or the Browns had the lead. A rainy day and a muddy field advanced the wisdom of Brown’s strategy, but one gets the sense that Brown was going there no matter what the weather was.

In your face, Greasy.

The Browns won the 1950 NFL championship, 30-28, against the legendary “point-a-minute” Los Angeles Rams, and Brown’s approach was exactly what it should have been: Lean on your quarterback. Graham out-dueled Bob Waterfield, completing 22 of 33 passes for 298 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.

Paul Brown was one of football’s greatest coaches and thinkers, and one of the primary reasons why is that he understood that not only is there more than one way to win a game, but that your ultimate success should be based on adjusting your approach for situation and opponent. There are not types or archetypes to which a franchise must adhere; there is only the next game, and the specific plan for winning that game.

Bill Belichick has always been a keen observer of Brown’s approach, and he’s always been a week-to-week adjuster, which is where Belichick’s game plan against the Bills on Monday night comes in.

In monsoon conditions, the Patriots threw the ball just three times — the fewest by any team since the 1974 Bills beat the Jets, 16-12, in a similar Buffalo weather disaster. Bills quarterback Joe Ferguson attempted two passes in that game, completing none, and having two interceptions called back by penalty. New England ran the ball against these Bills 46 times for 222 yards and a touchdown. They ran the ball when it didn’t work early on. They ran the ball when the schemed kicked in, and things got really dicey for Buffalo’s defense. They ran the ball no matter what, because that’s how Belichick saw a specific path to victory.

Could it have backfired? Sure. Did it? Nope. Here’s why.

The lone lion: Why Micah Parsons is the NFL’s best defensive player

Cowboys defender Micah Parsons has the Defensive Rookie of the Year award sewn up. It’s time to wonder if he’s the best defender overall.

You can wrap up any voting for the NFL’s 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year, because Cowboys edge-demolisher and off-ball specialist Micah Parsons has that on lock. We’re past asking whether the Penn State alum is the league’s best defensive rookie. We are now asking whether Parsons has become the NFL’s best and most impactful defensive player, regardless of position or experience.

There is a legitimate case to be made, especially in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, Parsons leads the league in sacks (7.5), total pressures (26), and stops (20), and he’s done it at multiple positions. Per Pro Football Focus, Parsons has played 304 snaps this season on the defensive line, 360 in the box as an off-ball linebacker, 13 in the slot, six at outside cornerback (!), and one at free safety. There isn’t much Parsons can’t do, and what he can do, he’s doing at levels we have no right to expect from a rookie. There are very few players who can dominate at two levels of a defense at any given time, and Parsons has been doing it all season.

The NFL’s November Defensive Rookie of the Month came into his first December game, a Thursday-nighter against the Saints, with apparently more to prove. He’d come off a one-sack, 10-pressure, five-stop performance against the Raiders on Thanksgiving night that showed him as virtually unstoppable against Derek Carr and company, but his game against New Orleans may have been even more impressive. Parsons had another sack, five pressures, two stops, and no catches allowed on two targets.

“I feel like the more the season went on, you could see his speed start coming alive in the games,” end DeMarcus Lawrence recently said. “He’s a fast player, excellent instincts, he’s a go-getter. He’s the lone lion.”

Perhaps most interesting is how defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can deploy Parsons from week to week. Against the Raiders, Parsons lined up 73 times on the line, and four times in the box. Against the Saints, it was 12 snaps on the line, 50 in the box, and three in the slot. You don’t expect a 6-foot-3, 245-pound guy to make impact plays in the slot, either… but as we will see, Micah Parsons is no ordinary dude. For a rookie to excel in this many roles is… well, let’s just say it’s somewhere between exceedingly rare and completely unprecedented.

Touchdown Wire’s Week 13 NFL preview podcast with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield get you ready for a very big NFL Week 13 with their weekly matchup podcast.

As the 2021 NFL season rolls merrily along into December, matchups turn interdivisional, contenders separate from pretenders, and (cliché alert) THE GAMES JUST MATTER MORE.

Cliché or not, they actually do! Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield have you covered as we prepare for a jam-packed Week 13 with their weekly podcast, which is also jam-packed with tape notes and advanced metrics. First, we get into Mark’s recent mock draft (which will be of interest to Lions, Jets, Giants, and Eagles fans, especially), and then, the matchups.

Among the topics discussed:

How can the Bills overcome their recent limitations on both sides of the ball to take on a Patriots team that seems to have everything covered at this point? Perhaps most importantly, how can the Bills do it without Tre’Davious White?
Why are the Saints so passive on defense of late, and why they’d better turn that tendency around against the Cowboys on Thursday night;
Why Matt Ryan has taken a serious backslide in the last three weeks, and where the openings are (and are not) to turn that around against the Buccaneers;
Why in the battle between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, one running back will probably decide the Chargers-Bengals game;
Why Miami’s defense is more multi-dimensional than you may think (and why Miami’s offense is almost entirely one dimension at this point);
Why Frank Reich was indeed right to avoid running the ball against the Buccaneers; and why he’ll reverse course against the Texans;
Does the Washington Football Team have its quarterback of the (near) future?
Why it’s time for Sean McVay to open up his playbook past the pages marked “Empty Formation,” and one Jaguars stat you will not believe;
Why the Steelers are in all kinds of trouble leading into their game with the Ravens; and
Why Patrick Mahomes could have a rough go against the Broncos’ match-heavy defense, even as the Chiefs’ defense has taken a major step forward.

Listen to the podcast on Omny Studio:

Or on Spotify:

And watch it on YouTube!

Film Study: Who’s responsible for the Chargers’ limited passing game?

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the film to examine the ups-and-downs of Herbert and the Chargers passing offense.

The opening question in my latest film study was: Has the NFL figured out what Chargers quarterback and defending Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert can do, and are they countering him perfectly to limit what the passing game can do, or are the laminations of the passing schemes the real issue?

As with most complicated questions, there’s a little bit of everything in the answer.

In Herbert’s second year, he leads the NFL in QBR rating, he’s second in passing yards, third in passes completed, fifth in passing touchdowns, and he has five total game-winning drives this season.

So, in reality, defensive coaches have done their best to slow him down, but Herbert is still preforming at a high level.

The inconsistences from week-to-week come from the Chargers as a whole. Their defense haven’t been able to stop teams from getting into the end zone. In Week 11, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Herbert had to put up 41 points to win by only four. When we take a look at the offense, Herbert is relied on heavily to create plays outside the pocket while evading pressure.

Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s game plan is changing week to week based on the defenses, but overall the common theme in order to stop the Chargers, is to force them to become a short, quick passing offense.

When we look at the big plays, according to Sports Info Solutions, on throws of 20 or more air yards, Herbert has 23 attempts against zone coverage, and only six attempts when his receivers are facing man coverage.

This stat really says a lot about the Chargers. When they see man coverage, they aren’t going deep. Defenses would rather sit back, play prevent and force the Charges to sustain long drives in order to win games. Some teams have done it well, others haven’t.

In week 8, against the Philadelphia Eagles, Keenan Allen is one-on-one against Daruis Slay who is in man coverage, with only one safety deep. That safety must make a choice on which cornerback to help. Allen runs such a great route, that even though the safety decides to help out Slay, Allen still gets over the top.

Keenan Allen is one of the best route-runners in the NFL. Mike Williams and Herbert in the beginning of the year were considered one of the best duos in the game. Defenses have decided that if they are going to run man coverage, run it with two-safeties high, and force Herbert to make throws underneath.

In the clip below, the Patriots are in Cover 2-Man on second-down, leaving the only guy with separation is the running-back.

The Chargers are at the top of the NFL when it comes to team drops. When a high-flying offense is forced to run short-quick plays against man coverage, the communication and rapport have to be fluid.

Despite the mishaps against man coverage, there is always a chance that Herbert can find one of his receivers in single coverage over the top, changing the game in an instant.

So in light of that possibility, what defenses are doing to prevent the big-plays, they are running zone coverage.

This is why the 20+ yard passing plays, are against zone. Right now, this is where Herbert is at his best. Running receiver concepts, throwing guys open.

Even when defenses has disguised their look, Herbert is still able to get the ball down field. In the clip below, the defense disguises a single safety, then at the snap, he falls back. Herbert notices this and makes a great throw to the open spot.

What the Patriots were able to do to stop Herbert was blitz on second down, drop into man coverage and force Herbert to hold onto the ball, or force throws.

When the Patriots defense blitz from one side, they are replacing that defender with a defensive lineman where typically that part of the field would be empty.

When forcing Herbert to hold onto the ball for a little longer and go through his reads, while bringing pressure; mistakes are bound to happen.

Then the Broncos took this method and perfected it.

They forced third-and-longs, then ran zone-match. Herbert was forced to go through his reads and instead of making the tougher throw to the middle of the field, he forced it because he saw one-on-one on the outside.

NFL defensive coordinators realize that the sophomore slump comes with pressure; so bringing extra guys on second-down with man coverage in the secondary, has forced Herbert to hold onto the ball a bit longer than he would like, resulting in hurries or forced throws. This is why we are seeing Herbert use his legs a bit more.

On third down, they are allowing the underneath throws or forcing Herbert thread the needle for any completions deeper down field. Against the Patriots the Chargers converted on 33% of their third-downs, versus the Vikings 42% and Broncos 50%.

With his defense giving up points early, Herbert is feeling the pressure to make big plays. He must remain patient and keep his eyes down field in order to win, it wont be the run game, or his defense.

4-Down Territory: Discussing the NFL’s most important topics

Each week on “4-Down Territory,” Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling discuss the NFL’s most important topics.

Each week on “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire, agree (and disagree) on the NFL’s most pressing topics.

This week’s points of discussion:

If the Giants are ready to move on from general manager Dave Gettleman, are they wise to give organizational control to Joe Judge, who has a 10-17 record in less than two full seasons?
Why has the NFL turned from a total passing league to a league in which running backs matter again, and why are hybrid threats like Deebo Samuel and Cordarrelle Patterson making defenses think too much?
Last week, Doug and Luke pointed to the Panthers and Eagles as teams with records under .500 that presented real threats down the stretch. After both teams got embarrassed last Sunday, are those teams still on the radar?
And which teams currently in playoff contention could start to fade as things get real in December?

You can watch the latest episode of “4-Down Territory” right here!

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Film study: Why Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is dominating the NFL run game

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick analyzes the game film to explain why Jonathan Taylor is dominating opponents.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is emerging as a legitimate superstar this season.

With the recent injury to Tennessee Titans workhorse Derrick Henry, Taylor has emerged from the shadow of his AFC South counterpart. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,122), yards from scrimmage (1,444), rushing touchdowns (13) and longest run from scrimmage (83 yards). He’s also the first running back to reach 1,000-yard mark on the season.

Taylor currently averages 5.8 yards per carry and has over 100 total yards in eight consecutive games. Here are his numbers since Week 4:

Week	Opponent	Total yds.	TDs
4	at Miami	114	1
5	at Baltimore	169	2
6	Houston	158	2
7	at San Francisco	110	1
8	Tennessee	122	1
9	N.Y. Jets	200	2
10	Jacksonville	126	1
11	at Buffalo	204	5

Taylor, a second-year pro who rushed for 6,174 yards during his collegiate career with the Wisconsin Badgers, also just set a Colts franchise record with five touchdowns in a blowout win over the Buffalo Bills.

Taylor is only 48 yards away from surpassing his rushing yardage total from his entire rookie season and two rushing first downs away from eclipsing his total from 2020.

When the Colts started the season 0-3, Taylor averaged only 57 rushing yards per game. Now 6-5 and in the midst of the AFC playoff chase, the Colts are on a three-game winning streak. In those past three games, Taylor has averaged 158 rushing yards.

What changed? His snaps. He is now the workhorse of the Colts offense.

Taylor had 32 carries and three receptions against Buffalo on Sunday, and he’s been on the field for more than 80% of the team’s offensive snaps each of the past two weeks.

Let’s examine some game film to learn why Taylor has been so effective.

Touchdown Wire’s Thanksgiving Day preview podcast

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield preview Thanksgiving’s three NFL games, and give their holiday cooking tips!

Thanksgiving Day is near, and that means it’s time for NFL football! Also, the Lions and the Bears! With that in mind, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield are here to preview the three Turkey Day games on the slate, for better or worse.

First, Mark and Doug give their holiday cooking and eating tips (it’s a marathon, not a sprint, kids!), and Mark reveals the tremendous culinary challenge he’s about to face.

And then, the football! Among the topics discussed:

A few reasons to actually be thankful for the Lions-Bears matchup, and whether Detroit and Chicago respectively should hang on to Jared Goff and Khalil Mack;
Why the Raiders-Cowboys matchup could be more of a rock fight than a shootout, and why the “blueprint” talk surrounding Dak Prescott has gained legitimate steam; and…
What do you do if you’re Sean Payton, and you may be short your top two running backs and both starting tackles, and you have to deal with the Bills’ awesome pass defense?

Listen to the podcast on Omny Studio:

Or on Spotify:

And watch it on YouTube!

Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers and listeners!

Four-Down Territory: Discussing the NFL’s most important topics

In “Four-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire discuss the NFL’s most important topics.

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Every week, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire get together to discuss the NFL’s most important and pressing issues.

This week, Doug and Luke agree (and disagree) on the following topics:

More and more NFL players are standing up for their own mental health, speaking out on their bouts with anxiety and depression, and taking in-season breaks when necessary to keep everything together. That they’re doing so with the full support of their coaches and teammates is a remarkable turnaround in the NFL’s tough-guy mentality.
The Patriots have rattled off five straight wins since their 2-4 start to the season . Mac Jones is playing like the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and New England’s defense is absolutely devastating. Is it time to brace ourselves for yet another Belichick stretch run?
Of the teams that currently have a sub-.500 record, which are the most dangerous, and capable of making strong late-season runs of their own?
Both the Broncos and Chiefs followed a specific defensive game plan to shut down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy spoke of the similarities, but is there now a “blueprint” out there to keep this generally explosive offense in check?

Watch the latest episode of “Four-Down Territory” right here!