Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew just got his first start since Week 15 of last season, and if you’ve been paying attention, you weren’t surprised that Minshew came out hot.
Minshew doesn’t just have good starts — he has great starts.
As a rookie in the 2019 season opener with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Minshew replaced the injured Nick Foles and completed 22 out of 25 attempts while throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. In last season’s opener, Minshew helped the Jaguars get their only win of the season by throwing an almost-perfect game, going 19 for 20 for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts. Over the course of Minshew’s career, he has a 94.4 passer rating, 39 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.
If there was ever a perfect time for Minshew to start, this past Sunday’s game against the New York Jets was it. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed (4,762), yards allowed per game (396.8), points allowed (367) and points allowed per game (30.6).
The game plan was simple: Run the ball often and throw high-percentage passes. The running game was a big reason why the Eagles were able to grind out a 33-18 victory over the Jets. Miles Sanders had a season-high 24 carries for 120 yards, and rookie Kenneth Gainwell added a season-high 54 yards and one touchdown.
Minshew started the game with back-to-back touchdown drives and 11 consecutive completions. He finished 20-of-25 passing for 242 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, leaving some fans infatuated with the idea of Minshew replacing Jalen Hurts as the starter.
This is not new. Being from the Philadelphia area myself, I’ve watched fans become smitten with Koy Detmer, Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb, and, of course, Foles, who guided the Eagles to victory in Super Bowl LII.
But there is a reason why the Eagles didn’t reveal their starting quarterback until kickoff. They almost certainly didn’t want the Jets to be able to prepare specifically for Minshew. Not to diminish Minshew’s performance — he got the win, and that is what you pay a backup to do. But make no mistake, Hurts’ diverse skill set gives opposing defenses much bigger headaches.
The Eagles’ offensive game plan against the Jets was relatively simple, and most of the passes thrown by Minshew (aside from busted coverages downfield) were kept short. He threw 16 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and only took three shots deep downfield.
To be clear, Minshew made some impressive audibles, went through his reads and exploited mismatches. On a third-an-10 in the third quarter, Minshew had one of his best throws of the day.
As soon as the ball was snapped, Minshew went through two reads, and even though the slant was open across the middle, he kept his eyes downfield to ensure he could convert the third down with a second-level pass. He then squared his shoulders while rolling out and hit Quez Watkins with a beautiful throw right to the chest in stride for 28 yards.
That said, Hurts is fully capable of making the same play.
In the clip below from Week 10 against the Denver Broncos, tight end Dallas Goedert ran a route similar to the one Watkins ran in the previous clip against man coverage. Hurts then did a fantastic job rolling out of the pocket and hitting his receiver in stride at the second level.
One of the biggest differences between Hurts and Minshew is the deep ball. When we look at Minshew’s deep throws in the Jets game, he wasn’t able to keep the same velocity on the ball.
On a touchdown pass to Goedert on Sunday, Minshew did a great job waiting for the play to develop. But when we look at the depth of the pass, we see that the receiver had to come back to the ball slightly in the clip below.
In the clip below from Week 11 against the Saints, Goedert ran the same type of rub route, and Hurts made a great throw.
When we contrast the two throws, the difference in velocity is what stands out most.
In the clip below, Minshew sidesteps into the path of a defender. This forces him to lean back as he throws, taking away some of his power due to suboptimal mechanics.
Now check out a similar situation and throw by Hurts.
In the second half against the Jets, Minshew started to check down frequently instead of looking toward the second level.
We aren’t taking anything away from Minshew on the completion here. This was great placement, and his accuracy is undeniable. Minshew has only 11 interceptions in his career for a reason. He doesn’t take risks to move the ball farther downfield. Instead, he often settles for the shorter pass.
By contrast, let’s look at a clip below of Hurts from Week 4 against the Chiefs, when wideout DeVonta Smith runs the same corner route. Hurts gets the ball there even though Goedert is open underneath.
Although Goedert enjoyed his best game of the season against the Jets with six receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Minshew left some missed opportunities on the field. When the Jets defense started covering the underneath routes, it left moments of separation at the second level — but Minshew didn’t see them.
Whether Hurts is the long-term answer for the Eagles is a debate for another day, but he gives the team a better chance to win than Minshew.
Hurts ranks second among NFL quarterbacks with 695 rushing yards this season, behind only Lamar Jackson. Minshew provides a change of pace, but so would just about any other quarterback.
When defenses start scheming for Minshew, the Eagles will be left with a one-dimensional offense.
With Hurts, you have a playmaker.