Film study: Three areas Cowboys must improve to become elite

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the film to analyze weak spots in the Cowboys defense.

The Dallas Cowboys have their eyes on a deep playoff run.

So far this season, the Cowboys have stood toe to toe with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, beat the Los Angeles Chargers, handled the New England Patriots in overtime and completely dismantled the Atlanta Falcons. The Dallas offense has shown Super Bowl potential at times this season, even beating the Minnesota Vikings without starting quarterback Dak Prescott. But the Cowboys defense has shown lapses that potentially could haunt the team in the playoffs.

Let’s analyze three areas Dallas needs to clean up on defense if it expects to make legitimate noise in the postseason.

Touchdown Wire’s Week 11 NFL preview podcast with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield take a deep dive into all the Week 11 matchups with tape notes and advanced metrics.

Week 11 of the season is here, and with things starting to define themselves from a postseason perspective, and divisional games taking over very soon, the matchups are more important than ever. So, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield are back with their weekly podcast, featuring all kinds of tape notes and advanced metrics!

This week’s primary topics:

  • Why everyone needs to calm down about the Rams and Odell Beckham Jr.;
  • How can the Falcons contend with the Patriots’ improving defense and power-based offense?
  • How the Bills got effectively creative with their run game last week, and the severe challenges Buffalo’s defense presents for Carson Wentz;
  • Why Justin Fields vs. the Ravens’ pass defense is an advantage for Fields unless Matt Nagy messes everything up;
  • Why the Browns’ get-well opportunity against the Lions might not mean much for their season down the road;
  • Why defense has made the difference for the Packers, and the player who has made that so;
  • Joe Flacco? What? Why?
  • How Jalen Hurts’ recent uptick will be desperately needed against the Saints’ dominant defense;
  • Why Deebo Samuel has been as important to his offense as any player in the NFL;
  • Is it time to start worrying about Joe Burrow?
  • Why the Cowboys’ defense will give Patrick Mahomes more trouble than the Raiders’ defense did, and why Dak Prescott is the NFL MVP to date;
  • Why the Cardinals’ run defense could be their fatal flaw;
  • When is Joe Lombardi going to realize what he has in Justin Herbert; and
  • What is going on with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers?

Listen to the podcast on Omny Studio:

And on Spotify:

And watch it on YouTube!

4-Down Territory: Going over the NFL’s most important topics

In “4 Down Territory,” Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling discuss the NFL’s most important subjects.

Every week in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire go over the things you need to know about, and the things you need to watch, in the NFL right now.

This week, Doug and Luke discuss:

  1. Why NFL officiating is so bad, and how the league can (and should) fix it;
  2. Which team that was upset last week should be the most worried about their postseason prospects;
  3. In a very muddled picture, which team is the AFC’s best coming into Week 11, and…
  4. Whether Patrick Mahomes is really “back,” or whether the Raiders give Mahomes the perfect defense to light it up last Sunday.

You can watch “4-Down Territory” below.

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Is Patrick Mahomes “back,” or did the Raiders give him a free pass?

Patrick Mahomes’ five-touchdown game against the Raiders was a revelation to a point, but let’s pump the brakes on whether he’s “back.”

Though the first nine weeks of the 2021 season, Patrick Mahomes completed 236 of 362 passes for 2,534 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Considering that Mahomes had thrown 11 interceptions total in his previous two regular seasons, this has been kind of a big deal. Kansas City ranked 10th in Offensive DVOA, and 13th in Passing DVOA — the Chiefs ranked second overall and second in passing last season.

There have been all kinds of theories as to why this decline has happened. Mahomes is still affected by a disastrous offensive performance in Super Bowl LV, he’s getting used to an offensive line with five new starters, Mahomes is playing outside of structure too often, Mahomes’ formerly freakishly fortunate interception luck has turned. There appears to be legitimacy to all those thoughts to a greater or lesser degree, but the primary explanation seems to be the proliferation of two-high coverage against the Chiefs, and the Chiefs’ inability to respond to it.

In the 2020 season opener, the Texans tried to play a ton of two-high against the Chiefs in order to wait Mahomes out with deep coverage and try to force him into desperation throws. The Chiefs responded by running rookie back Clyde Edwards-Helaire 25 times for 138 yards and a touchdown against Houston’s deep safeties and light boxes. Mahomes completed 24 of 32 passes for 211 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. It was a ruthlessly efficient, if less than explosive, performance.

This season, the Chiefs have not been as effective at forcing opponents away from two-deep coverage, and it’s showing. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Mahomes had faced far more two-high snaps than any other NFL quarterback (203 dropbacks; Sam Darnold ranked second with 127). And in those 203 dropbacks, Mahomes completed 106 passes in 174 attempts for 1,217 yards, one touchdown, and six interceptions. Not that all the interceptions were absolutely Mahomes’ fault, but there’s been a schematic message throughout the league, and it’s worked.

Which is where the Raiders came in on Sunday night. Mahomes completed 35 of 50 passes for 406 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 41-14 win. That had everybody insisting that Mahomes was “back” after a confusing first half of the season.

Whether that’s actually true or not is worthy of examination.

Coming into Sunday night’s game, no team had played more Cover-3 than the Raiders — 127 snaps of it in pass coverage, and Gus Bradley’s defense had allowed 80 completions on 100 attempts in Cover-3 for 829 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. This is a hallmark of Bradley’s defenses wherever he’s been — he’s a single-high guy to an abnormal degree. Last season, the Chargers played single-high on 69% of their defensive snaps. Guess who their defensive coordinator was? Through Week 9, Bradley’s Raiders have played single-high on 65% of their snaps, the highest rate in the league. Mahomes has completed 63 of 107 passes in 121 dropbacks for 780 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions.

So, single-high hasn’t been the automatic solution we may think. To their credit, the Raiders came into this game with the desire to switch up their tendencies, which Chiefs head coach Andy Reid noticed.

“He blended it a little bit between Cover-4 and single safety middle zone,” Reid said of Bradley after the game. “Listen, that is kind of where the whole thing started. They have done a good job against us the last few years, just playing zone. He mixed it in playing heavy three and then man to man, different doubles taking place.”

According to the Raiders’ coaches, the Raiders’ failures were more about execution and communication than scheme.

“Communication-wise, what we were trying to do with some bracket coverage and having the ability to communicate with each other, we had some stumbling blocks there,” Raiders interim head coach Rich Bisaccia said Monday. “And then we had people behind us for the first time in certainly the last month making some explosive plays in that particular area for us on defense… 12 explosive plays we gave up on defense. We only had six on offense.”

So, was this a case of Mahomes exploiting a sub-standard defense ill-suited to attack his weaknesses, or is Mahomes really “back?”

Film study: Why Jerry Jeudy is crucial to the Broncos offense

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down the film to explain the myriad skills of Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy.

Will the real Denver Broncos please stand up?!

Are they the team that won its first three games of the season and then recorded back-to-back victories in Weeks 8 and 9? Or are they the team that suffered a four-game losing skid last month?

One thing is for certain: With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy on the field, the Broncos are a much better team. His return from an ankle injury, which caused him to miss six games, is a big reason why they were able to beat the Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys in the past two weeks.

How the Dolphins upended the Ravens with Cover-0 (and other things)

The Dolphins upset the Ravens on Thursday night with a definitive defensive performance. Did they give a “blueprint” to stop Lamar Jackson?

Every upset has its own anatomy. In the case of the Dolphins’ 22-10 win over the Ravens on Thursday night, the defense was the thing, and it allowed the now 3-7 Dolphins to look far superior to the 6-3 Ravens on that side of the ball. Specifically, it was a series of Cover-0 concepts — no deep safeties, man coverage, and blitz looks that not only kept Lamar Jackson tied to the pocket, but often turned into coverage drops that Jackson found tough to anticipate.

Jackson finished the game with 26 completions on 43 attempts for 238 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 73.8. He was sacked four times, and was pressured on 19 of his 53 dropbacks. When under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, Jackson completed five of 13 passes for 50 yards, one touchdown, one late desperation interception (the first regular-season pick he’s thrown in the red zone in his career), and a passer rating of 45.4. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Jackson had completed 36 of 75 passes under pressure for 517 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 77.5, so it wasn’t just pressuring Lamar. There were other things afoot.

How different was the game plan put together by Miami defensive coordinator Josh Boyer? Per Next Gen Stats, safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones were all over the field, and they blitzed at a rate Next Gen Stats had never seen before.

So, this wasn’t just about the usual Cover-0 “blitz or die” plan — there was a lot more going on.  And it wasn’t the first time the Dolphins under Boyer and head coach Brian Flores had upended a dynamic offense with a young quarterback with a ton of Cover-0 looks that morphed into other things. Ask the Rams of Sean McVay and Jared Goff about that.

Anatomy of a Play: How the Dolphins beat Jared Goff with Cover-0 pressure

In this game, Jackson was pressured on 20 of his dropbacks, the most he’s faced in his career. And the Dolphins sent defensive back blitzes on 24 of Jackson’s dropbacks, which was also the most he’s faced in his career. When Jackson is pressured 15 or more times this season, the 6-3 Ravens are 0-3. The Ravens had two plays of 20 or more yards in this game — they had averaged 5.5 per game before. Per NFL research, the Ravens scored fewer than 14 points for the first time in their last 53 games. Their 52-game streak with 14 or more points was the second-longest such streak since 1940.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was not amused.

“That’s something they’ve done all year,” Harbaugh said of the safety blitzes. “We worked on it all week. We didn’t have a good enough plan for it, you know, as a group, and we didn’t execute well with the plan we had.”

Well, yeah, but this was a case of the Dolphins throwing the ice cream factory at the Ravens from a DB blitz perspective.

If you’re wondering why Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman didn’t have a plan to attack Miami’s Cover-0 stuff when it started, one reason could be that the Dolphins, with all the talk about zero blitzes, didn’t show one defined defensive profile in this game. They weren’t playing zero all the time, and when they did, they threw all kinds of stuff at Jackson with it. They had either a single high safety, or a two-safety look spun to single-high, on their first seven defensive snaps.

The Ravens caught a delay of game penalty on the first Cover-0 look. The next play, third-and-9 from the Miami 28-yard line, had Jackson overthrowing receiver Sammy Watkins in the end zone. Watkins had defensive back Justin Coleman beaten downfield for the touchdown, but because Miami brought three defensive backs on the backside blitz, and safety Jevon Holland was the free blitzer, Jackson couldn’t make the connection. You could easily argue that this was a touchdown if Watkins reached for the ball, but the effect on Jackson and the offense was obvious.

“Actually, you know, I was hot [blitzed],” Jackson said of this playa, nd whether Watkins could and should have brought it in. “I was hot. And I had to throw the ball in the air and give him a chance. But, you know, if he’s not sitting with the back in the backfield, it would probably be hard to try to track the ball, if I’m just throwing it up trying to make something happen. So, nah, I didn’t talk to him about it.”

The Dolphins played Cover-3 on the first play of Baltimore’s next drive, a quick screen to receiver Devin Duvernay for 11 yards, and they stayed with that strategy for the next few plays. The next time we saw Cover-0 in an aggressive fashion (Miami played some of what I would call “soft” Cover-0 with four defenders across 7-10 yards off the ball in man/match coverage) was the last play of the first quarter. It was third-and-5 from the the Baltimore 28-yard line, Holland followed from defensive right to left, lined up as a blitzer again, and did a great job of tying pressure to coverage. Once again, Jackson wasn’t sure what was going on, and the result was a sack split by Jaelan Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel.

From there, as ESPN’s Matt Bowen pointed out, the Dolphins were able to be creative with their blitzes and coverages because they were so good at showing one thing and moving to another. The match element was crucial to the success of the overall plan.

The obvious question, and it was extended to Jackson after the game, was whether this provided any sort of “blueprint” for defenses down the road to shut the Ravens down, and how the Ravens should counter that.

“Play our game. You know, do us. Do our thing. We’ll be good. There were some plays we left on the field, some things we left on the field. Little mishaps. Just be us. That’s it.”

Per Sports Info Solutions, Jackson faced more Cover-0 than any other quarterback in Weeks 1-9, and he wasn’t great against it — five completions in 15 attempts on 16 dropbacks for 28 yards, 12 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a sack. The Dolphins were tied with the Chiefs in Weeks 1-9 with a league-high 20 snaps of Cover-0 in pass defense, allowing 11 completions for 150 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

No matter how you run it, Cover-0 is a boom-or-bust defense by its very nature. It’s an adjunct concept, not a staple. There are other teams that play it well in small spurts, but I don’t think there’s a message around the league now that you can negate Lamar Jackson by running a ton of Cover-0. This was just as much or more about the Ravens facing a defense that is used to throwing different things at an offense out of it, and succeeding far past its season-long rate in this particular game.

Why the Titans’ defense might make them the AFC’s best team

There’s no clearly dominant team in the AFC right now, but even without Derrick Henry, the Titans have a defense that could set them apart.

The Tennessee Titans were going to be up against it when they faced the Rams last Sunday night, or so it seemed. They were without Derrick Henry, the foundation of their offense as very few running backs have been in the modern era, and given the severity of Henry’s foot injury, that absence could last until the end of the regular season, or even through however far Tennessee makes it through the postseason.

Not great news for a 6-2 team that had the AFC’s top seed, but could easily lose it with a slide that might have started against a Rams offense that was averaging 30.6 points per game through Week 8, and was led by a quarterback in Matthew Stafford and a head coach in Sean McVay who were demolishing enemy defenses with as multi-faceted a passing game as there’s been in the NFL. Asking Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill to keep up with that with Henry out of the picture was a lot. Especially with a defense that came into the Rams contest ranked 20th in Defensive DVOA.

Tannehill played decently in the Titans’ surprising 28-16 win, completing 19 of 27 passes for 143 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, but if there’s one thing we know about Tannehill at this point, it’s that he’s the kind of quarterback who will go exactly as far as scheme and surrounding players will take him. There was no way for Tannehill to compete with Stafford unleashed in the Rams’ offense, so the thought was that the Titans, and specifically offensive coordinator Todd Downing, would have to scheme things up something fierce to get around that limitation. The common perception was that the defense would not do much to help.

It was an earned perception. The Titans ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA last season, and as late as Week 6 of the 2021 campaign, they ranked 28th. Then, things started to turn around rather dramatically. In Week 7 against the Chiefs’ busted offense in a 27-3 win, the Titans limited Kansas City to fewer than 10 points for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Defensive lineman Denico Autry knocked Mahomes out of the game with one of his to sacks, and the score was 27-0 at halftime. Against the Colts in a 34-31 Week 8 overtime win, they took advantage of Carson Wentz’s proclivities for “improvisation” with two interceptions in the last eight minutes of the game.

And then, the masterstroke against the Rams. Over the last four weeks, in wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, and Los Angeles, the Titans have the NFL’s fourth-best defense by DVOA behind only the Cardinals, Rams, and Saints. They’ve gone from 20th to 10th overall in Defensive DVOA in that time, and improved to eighth against the pass. They landed four players on Touchdown Wire’s midseason All-Underrated defense (Autry, interior defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, edge-rusher Harold Landry, and safety Kevin Byard), far more than any other team.

The NFL’s All-Underrated defense in the first half of the 2021 season

If they can keep this up, it might not matter whether Derrick Henry is in the game or not.

How did the Titans improve so quickly on the defensive side of the ball? There have been several burgeoning factors at play.

How the Broncos absolutely demolished the Cowboys’ top-tier offense

The Broncos came to AT&T Stadium against a Cowboys offense that was loaded for bear. Denver’s defense gave Dak Prescott several surprises.

If there was one defense primed for trouble in Week 9, it was the Denver Broncos’ defense. The same defense that was now without all-time pass-rusher Von Miller after Miller was traded to the Rams could have taken a nose dive in a “rebuilding” season and allowed the Cowboys to work them all over the field. Dak Prescott was back from his calf injury, and even with Cooper Rush at quarterback in Week 8, Dallas embarrassed the Vikings in Week 8 in a 20-16 win as Rush completed 24 of 40 passes for 325 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in his first NFL start. As the Vikings ranked fourth in Defensive DVOA and third against the pass after that game, and the Broncos ranked 25th in Defensive DVOA overall after Week 8, and Dak was back, and Miller was gone… well, if this had been a Cowboys uprising, nobody would have been surprised.

That’s not how it played out. Denver’s defense, led by head coach Vic Fangio, performed masterfully against one of the NFL’s best offenses. They played their usual brands of man and match coverage, but they did so far more physically than they had all season, and they did so consistently. Moreover, they tied pressure to coverage magnificently. When Prescott had time to find the open receiver, the receiver generally wasn’t open for long. And Prescott was pressured more than he found comfortable. Per Pro Football Focus, the Broncos got some kind of pressure on 17 of Prescott’s 43 dropbacks, and while Prescott did pretty well against it (six completions in 13 attempts for 88 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions), he didn’t have any kind of consistent answer for Denver’s complex, plastering, suffocating coverages.

Overall, Prescott finished his day with 19 completions in 39 attempts for 232 yards, two garbage-time touchdowns, and one interception. The Cowboys attempted four fourth-down conversions, and failed every time.

“We got beat,” Prescott said after the game, when asked what happened. “We got thumped in every aspect of the game. Especially on offense, didn’t get it going. We scored a couple of touchdowns there in late time, but never got going. I missed some throws. We didn’t throw and catch the ball as we normally do. It wasn’t our best performance by any means, obviously our worst of the year. Credit to those guys. It’s the NFL, those guys get paid to do this and play at a high level and they came in here and were more prepared of this game. Did a great job, did better than we did. Just beat us, plain and simple.”

The two touchdowns came late in the fourth quarter when the Broncos were already up, 30-0, and things had been well-decided. Before that, we were all looking up the last time the Cowboys got shut out at home — it was September 15, 1991, when Dallas was blown out 24-0 by the Eagles of… Rich Kotite?

Any given Sunday, I guess.

In any event, this was a shocking turn of events for both Dallas’ offense and Denver’s defense. Let’s get into how (and why) it went that way.

Odell Beckham’s next NFL team must use his talents correctly

The Browns have released Odell Beckham, but the schism in Cleveland had very little to do with Beckham’s talent. He can still help the right offense.

In March, 2019, the Cleveland Browns sent a 2019 first-round pick, a 2019 third-round pick and safety Jabrill Peppers to the Giants for the services of receiver Odell Beckham Jr. In five seasons with the Giants, the 2014 first-round pick out of LSU ranked 11th in the NFL in receptions (390), 10th in targets (622), seventh in receiving yards (5,476), and third in receiving touchdowns (44). He also became the fastest player in NFL history to reach both 200 career receptions and 4,000 career receiving yards. Beckham did all that despite playing in just 44 games through those five seasons — he played in just four games and had just two starts in 2017 due to an ankle injury, and a quadriceps issue cost him the final four games of the 2018 season, his last with Big Blue.

Beckham also left behind a litany of amazing catches that seemed out of the skill set of most other people playing his position.

During his time with the Browns, Beckham’s productivity has been far more in question. 2019 was the usual good-season-when-healthy — 74 catches on 133 targets for 1,035 yards and four touchdowns in a dysfunctional offense led by head coach Freddie Kitchens.

In Week 7 of the 2020 season under new head coach and offensive shot-caller Kevin Stefanski, Beckham — who had caught just 23 passes on 43 targets for 319 yards and three touchdowns — suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. The recovery from that injury also cost him the first two games of the 2021 season, and he made his season debut against the Bears in a 26-6 win in which Beckham caught five passes on seven targets for 77 yards.

That seemed like a nice way to get back in the swing of things, but in the next two games — a 14-7 Week 4 win over the Vikings, and a heartbreaking 47-42 loss to the Chargers — Beckham caught just four passes on 10 targets for 47 yards. Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s inability to connect with Beckham as the Chargers erased and overcame Cleveland’s 27-13 third-quarter lead seemed the last straw for a lot of Browns observers. Now, the only talk about Beckham seems to be what the team could get in trade for him.

Things got no better from there. Beckham caught five passes on eight targets for 79 yards in Cleveland’s 37-14 Week 6 loss to the Cardinals, two passes on six targets for 23 yards in the team’s Week 7 win over the Broncos, and just one pass on two targets for six yards in last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. On the season, Beckham has 17 catches on 34 targets for 232 yards and no touchdowns. The most stunning number in Beckham’s season is three — he has just three catches on throws of 20 or more air yards this season on 10 targets for 75 yards. That Beckham leads the team in deep targets by a fairly wide margin — rookie receiver Anthony Schwartz ranks second with six — tells you a lot about the state of Cleveland’s passing game in 2021.

Now that this has all come to a head, and the the Browns have released Beckham, what can we tell from Beckham’s limited opportunities regarding his best fits with other NFL offenses?

Touchdown Wire’s Week 9 NFL Preview Podcast with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield preview Week 9 of the NFL season with tape notes and advanced metrics.

Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and as usual, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield are here to break it all down with tape notes and advanced metrics!

Among the topics discussed this week:

  • Was Mike White’s historic first start for the Jets about anything more than the Bengals playing a really passive defense? The Colts are about to tell us;
  • How can the Browns solve the Odell Beckham problem? (Hint: It involves making him more than a decoy on deep passes);
  • What can the Broncos to to stop a Cowboys offense that is performing at an historic rate no matter who’s playing quarterback?
  • Now that the Dolphins are “stuck” with Tua Tagovailoa, how can they maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses in the structure of their offense?
  • Why Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen deserves a whole lot of head coach interviews in the offseason, and how Sean Payton must outdo himself with his quarterback situation;
  • Why we’re all about to remember just how much Lamar Jackson has improved as a pure passer;
  • Whether the Eagles can continue what has been a rough stretch for Justin Herbert;
  • Jordan Love or Patrick Mahomes: Which quarterback has more attendant issues at this point in the season? (And yes, we can’t believe we just asked that question);
  • The one thing that could get the Cardinals bounced right out of the playoffs if they don’t fix it;
  • How Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing can re-do an offense that has lost its identity without Derrick Henry, and…
  • Why the Bears should keep Matt Nagy out of the building if they’re to have any hope against the Steelers.

Listen on Omny Studio:

And watch it on YouTube!