Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 8 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 8.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
Will this touchdown machine get his lost season back on track in Week 8?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-6-0
All-time record: 19-37-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
And here I thought Week 4 was rock bottom!
In Week 7, New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson caught one of his two targets for 22 yards and that was it all she wrote. Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt led the aerial game in targets, and Robinson posted his worst fantasy stat line since this rookie debut … just the way I drew it up.
My overall success rate of 32.2% would be a respectable MLB career hitting average, but it’s far too low for my liking when it comes to weekly fantasy prognostication, even on total flier calls. This week, the need to take a gamble is much lower with no teams on vacation, and the lack of byes means this recommendation is best utilized for daily fantasy action. However, if you’re in a bind or willing to risk a flex spot, there is merit to such a move.
Williams suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 that caused him to go on the Reserve/Injured list and cost the veteran four contests before returning in Week 7. He faced a quality Jacksonville defense last Sunday but failed to do much of anything, rushing just five times for 14 yards. He was on the field for a mere 22.2% of the offensive snaps and rushed once in the red zone but not at all inside of the 10-yard line. Williams wasn’t targeted for the second time in three outings.
He heads to Indianapolis for a date with one of the weakest defenses of the running back position, and we can view last week’s limited showing as the 28-year-old shaking off the rust.
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Alvin Kamara overcame a midweek illness but is coming off three straight showings with a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, which is quite a bit below the league average. Now, that’s not all his fault as the offensive line has battled some injuries and tough enough opponents to depress his numbers.
Kamara has seen no fewer than 25 utilizations in each game back from his suspension, and that’s just not a wise floor to maintain. New Orleans needs to get Williams more involved and compartmentalize their respective roles to a greater degree. Game flow, however, plays a pivotal role in that coming to fruition.
The Colts are not likely to put the Saints in an early hole that requires an abandonment of the running game, and that’s going to work in Williams’ favor. As long as this game is within, say, 10 points on the board at any time entering the fourth, New Orleans will pound the ball.
Indianapolis has surrendered massive numbers to running backs, especially in the last five weeks. This is the sixth-easiest opponent to face for rushing yardage per game since Week 2 ended, and only the Carolina Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a higher rate in relation to number of carries faced. One in every 18.6 attempts has found paydirt, and that has come against the fourth-most rushes per game. Six backs have posted at least 15.1 PPR points, and three of them a have scored multiple times on the ground.
My projection: 14 carries, 52 yards, 2 TDs, 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards (18.8 PPR points)
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 7 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 7.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
This second-year receiver is on the rise at the right time for fantasy footballers.
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-5-0
All-time record: 19-36-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
After a dismal 1-5, I share a record with New England, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, and the New York Giants … but at least I’m not the Carolina Panthers!
Coping aside, last week was so close to being a win that it stings more than the blowout losses I encountered earlier in the year. The prediction of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford would have been good if tight end Tyler Higbee didn’t drop a perfectly thrown ball at the goal line that was a sure touchdown.
Further pouring salt in my wound, Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd was the player I strongly debated over Stafford … Spilled milk, I suppose, but it goes to show how fickle this game is both in reality and on the prognosticative front.
While gaining momentum from going 2-4 would have felt much better, we have to dust off and keep going … there’s a lot of football yet to be played.
Since returning from last year’s torn ACL, Robinson has been a steady contributor for the hapless New York offense. In Week 3, he played just 22 percent of the snaps, so we won’t hold that against him, but the second-year pro still logged four receptions on his five targets. He has seen at least seven utilizations go his way in each of the last three games, topping out at last week’s eight-look day that resulted in a 100% catch rate and 62 yards, the second-best mark of his injury-shortened career.
New York played without quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) last week, and it’s not hard to connect the dots to Robinson being more productive. Veteran Tyrod Taylor surely isn’t the answer to the Giants’ woes, nor is he likely to be any worse than the man he is replacing. The entire offense looked more competent with the journeyman running the show, and there’s something to be said for less chaos creating a positive ripple effect.
Having Saquon Barkley (ankle) back on the field didn’t negatively impact Robinson’s target share, either, as the slot receiver garnered 28 percent of the looks. He also had a season-high 76.9% rate of routes run while seeing only 58.7% of the offensive snaps.
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Washington has permitted serious work to the position in 2023. No team has surrendered more yardage in total, and this is the best matchup over the last five weeks, too, for per-game results in that category. It’s also the best for non-PPR points allowed, yards-per-reception average, PPR points per touch, and ease of scoring touchdowns in relation to volume. The 14th-fewest catches allowed per contest created the most TD grabs by a margin of two, coming at one every 7.2 receptions landed.
Of the 231.8 total PPR points granted to the position since Week 1 ended, receptions and yardage combine to account for 76.4% of the success. Nine receivers have posted at least 10 points in PPR, and four of them did it without even finding the end zone.
So we have a stellar matchup profile, an uptick in route involvement, a healthy target share, and more stability at quarterback … Robinson is poised for another quality showing — perhaps the best of his to-date 11-game career.
My projection: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 69 yards, 1 TD (19.9 PPR points)
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 6 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 6.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
Will this seasoned veteran drop dimes on a suspect defense?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 1-4-0
All-time record: 19-35-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
It’s nice to get one in the win column, but building momentum is the goal. Last week, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was the choice, and he far exceeded my expectations. This week, we’re going to look in a different direction after focusing on the tight end position the last few games.
Through five games, the 35-year-old has averaged a single touchdown pass and finally threw multiple TD strikes last week for the first time in 2023. Stafford has managed at least 300 yards in 60 percent of his contests this season, and his fantasy floor is 17.8 as QB16 in Week 1, which actually wasn’t the lowest ranking for him. He finished QB21 a few weeks later, despite scoring more points. With that established, Stafford hasn’t finished better than QB15 this year and has only 21.4 points as his personal best in 2023.
Los Angeles enjoyed the return of star receiver Cooper Kupp in Week 5, and he didn’t miss a beat after being unavailable since Week 10 last season. Not only did that help, but rookie phenom Puka Nacua remained highly involved and quite effective. Third receiver Tutu Atwell offers another dangerous outlet, running back Kyren Williams is versatile enough to help in the passing game, and tight end Tyler Higbee is capable of chipping away over the middle.
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This week, the matchup favors passing over running — and especially so to the wide receiver position, which is LA’s offensive strength. Kupp, Nacua and Atwell should be a viable three-deep weapons cache for fantasy purposes, and that won’t happen without Stafford being no worse than solid.
Given the opponent, however, he has a prime opportunity to be much better than that … the Cardinals have given up the sixth-most passing yards per game (274.4) and touchdowns at the 14th-easiest rate in relation to number of balls thrown. Only two defenses have yielded more points per offensive play by a quarterback.
Arizona has given up three rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2023, that’s in no way Stafford’s game at this stage of his career. While he rushed for a pair of scores in the 2021 playoffs, he has a single ground TD to his name since the 2016 season concluded. But even when the trio of rushing touchdowns are removed, this is still the seventh-best matchup to exploit.
The Cardinals could be without their two best defensive backs, Despite averaging a respectable 3.0 sacks per game on 35 attempts faced, this defense has allowed the fifth-highest offensive scoring rate per drive and the 17th-lowest percentage of drives ending in a turnover. Arizona is tied for the third-lowest blitz percentage and second-worst pressure rate — the likely difference-maker for Stafford behind an offensive line that has allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate.
My projection: 303 passing yards, 6 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (23.18 points)
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 5 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 5.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
Will this veteran tight end finally return to the end zone?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-4-0
All-time record: 18-35-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
There are no two ways around this being by far the worst start to — as well as among the longest losing streaks of — any year I’ve been doing this series. The entire concept is ripe for a low success rate, but 0-4 is unacceptable in any context.
Last week’s featured failure was Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox vs. Miami Dolphins, marking consecutive games in which I was so flatly wrong about Miami that my recommendations flopped because of the incorrect view of game flow. In Week 3, Javonte Williams was my pick, but I never saw Miami jumping out to a 49-13 lead through three quarters, which eliminated Williams from the game plan. Last week, I didn’t foresee Miami being down big most of the way, thus meaning Buffalo didn’t need to pass excessively.
For Week 5’s recommendation, statistical data is taking a passenger seat to situational football and extenuating circumstances. Goedert, a once-coveted fantasy option, has fallen on hard times. He has scored a mere touchdown in his last 10 appearances and reached double-digit PPR points in just 30 percent of those games and only 22.2 percent of the time when he didn’t find the end zone.
Philadelphia has so many weapons that he can get lost in the mix, and the team’s vertical success also detracts from Goedert’s number of opportunities in the red zone given that the team is tied for fourth at generating passing plays over 25 yards.
Los Angeles has allowed the 20th-most TE receptions but the sixth-highest scoring frequency in 2023, and this profiles as a top-10 matchup in both primary scoring systems. The Rams have given up only the 12th-most yards per attempt, and this is the sixth-best defense at limiting yardage after the catch. Just six teams have been weaker at allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Two Indianapolis Colts tight ends reached double figures in PPR last week, and two of the three previous matchups were against offenses that don’t involve the position much.
While there are some notable stats working in Goedert’s favor, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said the team still intends to feed him on offense.
“Trust me – I promise you he’s still part of the plan of us wanting to get him the football. We need to get him the football,” Sirianni said. “Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, with what’s kind of going on right now. There are some different things that defenses are concerned of with Dallas that has affected some of the touches he’s gotten. It’s a bit of both. He is a great player. We rely on him.”
In Week 5, the tight ends on bye aren’t serious fantasy factors, making it tougher to rely on the struggling veteran. Fortunately, most people who drafted Goedert did so with the intention of him being a weekly starter. Tough it out one more time if you’ve been considering replacement options in recent weeks.
My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD (17.1 PPR points)
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 4 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 4.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
