The Baltimore Orioles (80-76) and New York Yankees (96-59) meet Friday night at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 11-5
Baltimore has lost 3 straight games and 5 of its last 6. Orioles pitching has been tagged with a 6.96 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over that stretch. Baltimore is 1-3 on a current road trip that opened at the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles had been exceptional away from home through much of the late summer (17-12 across 29 road games from July 12-Sept. 18).
The Yankees had struggled for much of the second half until they started playing better ball earlier in September. The Yanks are 9-1 over their last 10 games and are 17-5 since Sept. 4. At Yankee Stadium, New York is 8-0 with a .904 OPS over its last 8 games.
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Orioles at Yankees projected starters
RHP Jordan Lyles vs. RHP Domingo German
Lyles (11-11, 4.55 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 172 IP.
- Owns a 3.47 ERA at home but a 5.56 mark on the road
- Has clocked a 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts (5 home runs allowed in 19 2/3 IP)
- Facing the Yanks for a 6th time this season (4.71 ERA)
German (2-3, 3.30 ERA) has appeared in 13 games (12 as a starter). He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 62 2/3 IP.
- Owns a 2.89 ERA over his last 7 starts
- Recently shuttled back and forth from the bullpen and has only thrown 117 pitches and 7 2/3 IP since Sept. 11
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Orioles 4
Money line
The Orioles are a case of prices maturing and being out too far over talent. That makes for good profits in September fading. However, that’s not the case here with this juice-drowned pricing: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
New York plays at home with the benefit of an off day, while Baltimore played at Boston Thursday. But there is also a bit of fade-German-and-Yankee-pitching in the equation as well.
In a high-scoring environment, NEW YORK -1.5 (+122) is likely the side with the most value.
Over/Under
The forecast calls for a cool evening in the Bronx and a light breeze helping the hurlers, but the lean for this 1st game of the series is on the OVER 7.5 (-120).
Both bullpens are in fade territory: they carry expected ERA figures higher than what has been presented to the world over the last 5 months. The Yankees ‘pen is sort of coming together late with pitchers returning from injury. A clunker inning here and there would be no surprise. German’s lack of work lately adds some risk to the run-prevention side of the equation.
Add in the surging New York offense, and shading the contest to get to a double-digit run total makes sense. In the last 7 Baltimore-New York games, the winning club has scored 6 runs or more 6 times and the Over is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings at Yankee Stadium.
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