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Each team in the divisional round is good enough to get there, but they all have potentially fatal flaws… and here they are.
Divisional round weekend is often regarded as the best weekend in football. The best eight teams are in action to determine who will play for the respective conference championships, and usually promises four really quality football games.
Every team is in this spot for a reason, but they all have an achilles heel that, if exploited, could turn their next mistake into the final act of their season.
The Eagles’ offensive line is the best unit we’ll see on the field in Super Bowl LVII. Laurie Fitzpatrick explains how it all works.
This Philadelphia Eagles offensive line might be their best in franchise history; and it’s all thanks to Chip Kelly!
No, really…
Back in 2013, Kelly hired offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, and now he’s the longest-tenured member of the Eagles’ coaching staff. If anyone needs proof that all offensive line success is a direct reflection of cohesiveness from repetition, that’s this Eagles line. Three of the five starters played together back in 2017.
All five starting offensive linemen are ranked within the top ten according to PFF.
The Eagles offensive line is a brick wall 𧱠pic.twitter.com/bv7clWpKPl
— PFF (@PFF) February 6, 2023
Over the last two playoff games, the front five hasn’t allowed a single sack or even a quarterback hit; only allowed nine hurries!
Right tackle Lane Johnson and center Jason Kelce have only given up a combined 22 total pressures on 600+ pass-blocking snaps each. Both guards Landon Dickerson and Isaac Seumalo have only given up a combined two sacks all season.
Left tackle Jordan Mailata is the technically the worst offensive lineman on the team (blown blocks, per SIS) and yet heâs still the fourth highest graded (88.8) zone run scheme blocker in the league, according to PFF.
This offensive line has protected Jalen Hurts and has given Miles Sanders some of the biggest gaps to run through all season. Let’s dive into why this Eagles offensive line is so difficult to beat!
When the Bengals and Chiefs face off in the AFC Championship game, Kansas City had best be prepared for Cincinnati’s improved ground game.
The Bengals have an edge against the Kansas City Chiefs.
No, I’m not talking about the passing game with Joe Burrow and JaâMarr Chase. We all are aware of the Bengals high-flying passing offense. But their effectiveness in the run game is just as impressive. We saw how they controlled the game on the ground with the Bills last week in the divisional round, but that wasnât the same offense from the beginning of the season.
Joe Mixon didn’t see his first 100+ yard rushing game until week nine of the regular season. Against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9, Mixon scored a Bengals franchise record of five touchdowns; it was also a Panthers record for most scored by a single player against them.
Before the Panthers game, the Bengals were only rushing for 81 yards per game which was 30st in the NFL.
Something changed.
âWe came out firing, we were physical, and you can just tell from the way the backs were playing, the way the linemen and tight ends and also receivers — they were blocking their (butts) off today,â Mixon said after the Panthers game. âAnd Iâm just very excited that we have a balanced attack today. (Head coach) Zac (Taylor) kept calling the runs, and we basically were trying to be as physical as possible. … Iâm just basically very happy for my team.â
The Bengals were finally healthy and playing with physicality. That was their mission against the Buffalo Bills as well, to out-physical the team on the other side in every single aspect, from the running to the blocking.
Nothing special about this clip. I just love how Mitchell Wilcox No. 84 almost gets his helmet ripped off and stays on the block. These blockers for the Bengals are tough đ€ pic.twitter.com/LTkr0FaQp8
— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) January 27, 2023
The Bengals out played the Bills in the trenches, and they only had two of their starting offensive linemen available, left guard Cordell Volson and center Ted Karras. So, their plan was to direct the run game through them.
They ran duo blocks, counters, and wham blocks, all directed towards the defensive tackles, pushing the ball right up the gut.
On the fourth run play of the game, they had those two offensive linemen take out the defensive tackle and then right tackle Hakeem Adeniji {No. 77), pull across the line and lead block for Mixon.
They used a puller several different ways to get open lanes up front. Even using a tight end to come across the line of scrimmage and pick up the edge defender while the left tackle works his way upfield.
Expect these same type of blocks against the Chiefs this upcoming week in the AFC Championship game.
The Bengals used a wham block with tight end Mitchell Wilcox in their last matchup as well, back in December, allowing Samaje Perine to gain six yards on the play.
The Bengals run crunch here and get an AWESOME wham block from Mitchell Wilcox against Chris Jones. pic.twitter.com/BJPCjsFKSZ
— Mike (@bengals_sans) December 5, 2022
Even the Jacksonville Jaguars found some success using Wham blocking scheme against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Tight end Evan Engram came across the line and took out the edge defender allowing Travis Etienne to punch it up the gut.
The Chiefs’ weakest part of their defensive line is the middle and the right tackle gaps, according to Football Outsiders. They are 27th when defending runs to the ‘Mid/Guard’ and 22nd ranked when the offense runs toward their ‘Right tackle’:
Of course, it’s great if the Bengals backfield can bounce plays outside getting into open space, but their best bet is to attack the inside.
In the end, the most important thing for the Bengals offensive line is to play in unison and they should be just fine.
âYou got three new guys that havenât played together a whole lot. Itâs a loud environment which already makes it difficult with guys who are on the same page,” right tackle Hakeem Adeniji said. “That was number one, obviously thereâs other things but that was the biggest thing. I feel like we were able to nail that and we were in unison on a lot of the stuff that we were doing and it pays dividends.â
Even though the passing game for the Bengals is their bread-and-butter, this game will be won through the ground game, and could be the difference maker between these two teams.
The Eagles’ run game against the 49ers’ defense? That’ll be a pivotal matchup in the NFC Championship game. Laurie Fitzpatrick has the tape.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ offense and the San Francisco 49ers’ defense will be an incredible matchup of physics.
P = F*v (Power equals Force times velocity)
The Eagles’ offense is pass-first, but there are a ton of run-pass options in there. The threat of the run-option is what can freeze a defense, and that half-second hesitation can make or break a play. That frozen moment in time is when the play is decided.
The Eagles’ offense thrives off a defense’s split-second decisions, and the 49ers defense rarely hesitate to give up big plays.
Let’s go to the film and diagnose how the Eagles will use their backfield against the 49ers’ dominant run defense.
Joe Burrow is playing quarterback at a thermonuclear level right now. Here’s how the Chiefs can at least slow him down.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense were able to do something in the playoffs that the Los Angeles Chargers couldnât, and that was to mitigate the Jacksonville Jaguars’ passing offense by pressuring the quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence only completed 61.5% of his passes for 217 yards in the divisional round, finishing with a 74.4 quarterback rating. In the wild-card matchup against the Chargers in that historic comeback win, Lawrence threw 6.1 yards per attempt, and against the Chiefs, that number dropped to 5.6 yards per attempt.
The Chiefs’ defense wanted to bring the pressure, so they brought a blitz on 22% of the dropbacks, and hit the quarterback seven times. Kansas City’s defense grabbed one interception, sacked Lawrence twice, and only allowed him to throw one touchdown.
It seemed like the Chiefs’ defenders were everywhere all at once, and that is exactly what head coach Andy Reid thought after the game:
âI thought from the defensive backs to the defensive line to the linebackers, I thought everyone was flying around making plays. Again my hat goes off to the guys, they were incredible on third downs and second downs they just played a great game all the way around. â
The question now is if the Chiefs’ pass rush can get to Joe Burrow in order to slow down the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense in the upcoming AFC Championship game. Burrow is playing at a ridiculous level right now, so that’ll be Job One if the Chiefs want to vault the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
Can an injured Patrick Mahomes win from the pocket against a Bengals defense that’s had his number when he’s been healthy?
Perhaps the most compelling storyline of the upcoming conference championship games is the status of Patrick Mahomes’ right ankle. The Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar quarterback suffered a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s 27-20 divisional round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he has already vowed that he’ll play this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals on a no-matter-what basis.
The question then becomes, what kind of Mahomes will we see? Probably not the one who’s able to make ungodly plays outside the pocket, but it’s not as if Mahomes is overly reliant on second-reaction plays. This season, per Sports Info Solutions, no quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes from the pocket than Mahomes’ 34. Interestingly enough, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow ranks second with 32 touchdown passes from the pocket.
Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes (70.8%) from the pocket for 4,598 yards (8.3 yards per attempt), 1,953 air yards, those 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 109.6. Only San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (114.6) and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (111.7) have better passer ratings from the pocket this season, so maybe there’s still something to being able to make big plays from the pocket.
So, that’s not a problem. Of course, as Mahomes said after the Jaguars game, there is the matter of planting on, and throwing from, an unstable base and an injured ankle. He’ll have a week to get actual treatment to prepare for that, but that’s where things could get interesting against a Bengals defense that has messed with his head consistently as few other defenses have through his NFL career.
âThere were a couple throws here and there where I tried to plant off that foot and it didnât let me plant like I usually do, and so, [there were] a couple throws I didnât make. I told [head] Coach [Andy Reid] I want to still throw it downfield, and so we were able to make some throws there after the first few drives. I think he got a little confidence that I can protect myself. So credit to our defense holding us in that game, especially after the start of that second half when I wasnât able to get stuff going. They held us in the game, made some big plays at the end, and we were able to score enough points to win.â
True, but Mahomes will now face that Bengals defense — the same one he’s struggled to beat time after time. How can he turn that frown upside down if he is indeed landlocked in the pocket?
If the Jaguars are to contain the Chiefs’ explosive offense, it’ll start with discipline in the back of their defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off the divisional round of the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium, and they’ll have to manage Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs’ explosive offense if they are to make their first AFC Championship game since the 2017 season.
In their week 10 matchup earlier this year, the Jaguars lost 27-17, and Patrick Mahomes went 5-for-5 on throws of 20 or more air yards. Overall, Mahomes finished with 331 yards and a passer rating of 129.6.
Tight end Travis Kelce went for 81 yards on six receptions. Since then, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed 62 yards per game to tight ends, which is the worst number in the league, according to Football Outsiders.
Kelce is an all-timer at the position, so it won’t be an easy task to keep him contained.
Here is what Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell recently said about Kelce, âThatâs a thing you talk about and you talk to the players about, being able to understand the game and the way heâs able to find holes in the defense or find weak areas or drift away from a coverage guy in zone coverage, you can tell that from being a former quarterback you can tell that he is able to see the soft spot in the defense, so thatâs things we talk about and just have to be aware of it.â
In their last matchup, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid did a great job putting his guys on crossing routes over the middle of the field, testing the discipline of the Jaguars’ secondary.
The Jaguars’ linebackers weren’t deep enough in coverage, and the safeties failed to switch off their matchups when routes were run into their zones.
In week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders, safety Duron Harmon showed a great switch when Kelce crossed behind his linebacker and so he picked up the other crossing route going deep.
Now, the result of this play was because the backside safety didn’t cover his half of the field and help the corner. But the switch off of Kelce, from the free safety, was smooth.
Reid does a fantastic job forcing the safeties and less experienced secondary players into tough situations.
He did this in their first matchup, putting pressure on cornerback Tre Herndon and safety Andre Cisco.
If the Jaguars want to keep this game in reach, they must be able to properly switch responsibilities mid-play when in zone defense. Stay on their assignments for as long as possible until the switch. Staying aggressive, not drifting away from their zones.
If the Jaguars are going to go with man coverage, expect Reid to target Herndon. In their last game, Herndon allowed three catches on three targets for 60 yards with an average of 20 yards per reception.
Both offenses should make this game a shoot-out. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st in the league against opposing No. 1 one wide receivers, giving up 81.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are 28th, giving up 65.2 yards per game.
If the Jaguars defense can come up with a few big stops, they have a chance to help their defense win this and shock the football world… but it all starts with the safeties in the back.
Laurie Fitzpatrick explains how the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense has improved just in time for the postseason.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have played their best defensive football in the second half of the season. In a five-game stretch at the end of the regular season, they have 11 forced turnovers, three defensive scores, they lead the league in pressures (114) and they have the ninth best defensive DVOA (-8.9%), allowing only 315.4 yards and 15.6 points per game.
As Adam Stites from our very own Jags Wire points out, “thatâs a massive improvement for a defense that allowed 408.6 yards and 27.4 points per game in the seven games prior.”
The Jaguars are now back into the postseason for the first time since their 2017 season, and their defense is a big reason for that.
âWeâre just more dialed in and more focused than ever,â Jaguars outside linebacker Arden Key said Saturday night, via 1010XL. âWe knew â the first game of the three-game [stretch] in two weeks â we knew what was up. We knew we lose we go home, we win we in the dance. I think everybody across the board just dialed in and focused more on the process.â
Safety Rayshawn Jenkins grabbed two interceptions and one pick-six to beat the Dallas Cowboys in overtime in week 15 and in week 18’s win-or-go-home game against the Tennessee Titans, his forced fumble in the fourth quarter allowed Josh Allenâs scoop and score.
Itâs time to look at how this Jaguars defense has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks over these last five weeks; and what they need to do in the wildcard matchup against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers offense.
There’s a lot on the line as the NFL’s regular season comes to a close. Here is every possible playoff permutation for Week 18.
The final week of any NFL regular season leaves us with all kinds of postseason possibilities to be decided, and never more so than in the 2022 regular season. Due to the cancellation of last Monday’s game between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals because of Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest on the field, the NFL had to create multiple stipulations in order to try and maintain competitive balance in a league that had two teams with one fewer game in the books.
We’ll get into all that in the scenarios below. Suffice to say, there are a bunch of teams with everything on the line in Week 18. Week 18 started Saturday, with the Kansas City Chiefs clinching the AFC’s one-seed, and the Jacksonville Jaguars clinching the AFC South, and the AFC’s four-seed.
Things are less complicated in the NFC. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have clinched the four-seed, and they’ll do so even if they go into the playoffs with a losing record. The New York Giants have already clinched the six-seed no matter what happens in their game with the Philadelphia Eagles… but as you’ll see, the Eagles can move anywhere from the one-seed to the five-seed based on what they, and several other NFC teams, do on Sunday. By the time we get to who can win the NFC’s two-seed, your head may be ready to explode.
In order to provide as much clarity as possible, here is every possible playoff scenario in both conferences for all non-eliminated teams.
