NFL Picks and Predictions – Page 193

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Green Bay Packers (1-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) wrap up their preseason schedule Thursday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NFL Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Packers vs. Chiefs odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Packers picked up the 20-10 win over the New Orleans Saints in their lone preseason game at Lambeau Field last weekend.

Packers QB Jordan Love started and completed 12-of-24 passes for 113 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, and he should see extensive action in this one, too.

The Chiefs rebounded from a Week 1 loss in Chicago to topple the Washington Commanders 24-14 last weekend at home.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was sharp against Washington, completing 12-of-19 passes for 162 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT, playing a surprising amount for the preseason. Coach Andy Reid indicated this week that Mahomes might play little, or not at all, against the Packers.

Packers at Chiefs odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:20 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Packers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Chiefs -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Packers -1.5 (-105) | Chiefs +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 35.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Packers at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Packers 23, Chiefs 16

Money line

The PACKERS (-115) are worth a look in the preseason finale, as Love is likely to see a lion’s share of the offensive snaps with QB Aaron Rodgers likely to sit yet again. Toss in the fact Mahomes is likely to sit for the Chiefs (+100), and the visitors look like quite the play.

Against the spread

The PACKERS -1.5 (-105) will save you a little bit of juice, and is a better value than the money line play unless you are hellbent on this game being decided by just 1 point.

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Over/Under

The OVER 35.5 (-112) is the lean here.

Even without Rodgers under center, the Packers offense has been fairly efficient in 2 preseason games, averaging 20.5 PPG.

The Chiefs have hit the Under in each preseason game, and that’s with Mahomes playing a considerable amount of snaps. There is concern here, but the reserves should push this one Over late.

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San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Francisco 49ers (2-0) and Houston Texans (2-0) wrap up their preseason schedule Thursday. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the 49ers vs. Texans odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The 49ers hit the road for the 2nd straight preseason game, and try to wrap up the exhibition campaign with a perfect record. San Francisco beat Green Bay 28-21 at home in Week 1 and won 17-7 at Minnesota in Week 2, covering both times.

Coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed this week that the 49ers will play their starters in the preseason finale.

The Texans topped the New Orleans Saints 17-13 in Week 1 and beat the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams 24-20 on the road in Week 2. They also have covered both preseason games.

Despite the solid record, QB Davis Mills and the Texans offense haven’t been terribly impressive. The key to success has been defense, with the Houston pass rush recording 11 sacks and 16 total pressures.

49ers at Texans odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): 49ers -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Texans +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Against the spread (ATS): 49ers -3.5 (-103) | Texans +3.5 (-117)
Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

49ers at Texans picks and predictions

Prediction

49ers 23, Texans 17

Money line

The 49ers (-190) might be a tempting play straight up rather than fiddling around with the points, but it’s risky betting on a road team, especially in a preseason game which is essentially a coin-flip game. While Shanahan confirmed the starters will play, he didn’t say how long.

PASS.

Against the spread

The 49ERS -3.5 (-103) are a much better play laying the points, although 3 and a hook on the road in the preseason is still a rather unsavory number. Still, Mills and the Texans +3.5 (-117) offense has been rather mediocre, and the 49ers will be leaning on the starters at least for a handful of drives.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 41.5 (-112) is the best bet on the board.

The Houston offense has totaled 41 points through 2 preseason games, and the defense has been surprisingly effective with plenty of pressure.

The San Francisco offense wasn’t great last week in a 17-7 win, although it was a mixture of young QBs Brock Purdy and Nate Sudfeld. QB Trey Lance should play, helping the 49ers to more points. But still, this one should be a game with a total in the 30s.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette

Analyzing Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

The career of running back Leonard Fournette has seen its share of ups and down. Entering his 3rd season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he may be prepared to reclaim the career that was expected of him when he was a much-heralded 1st-round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars out of LSU.

Below, we look at Leonard Fournette’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

When the Buccaneers decided to bring Fournette back and move on from Ronald Jones, it sent a message that the franchise is confident Fournette can be the lead dog in the run offense and doesn’t require a time share.

Leonard Fournette’s ADP: 27.21

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Coming off a 10-touchdown season, Fournette finds himself as a high-end RB2 (ranked No. 14 among running backs) and is situated in between Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers) with an ADP at 20.42 and Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos) at 25.31 in front of him and Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) at 30.32 and James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) at 32.84 behind him.

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Leonard Fournette’s 2021 stats

Games: 14

Carries | rushing yards: 180 | 812

Rushing touchdowns: 8

Receptions | receiving yards: 69 | 454

Receiving touchdowns: 2

Where should you draft Fournette?

Although he can be dominant at times, injuries have played a factor throughout Fournette’s career. He has never played in every game of a season and, in his 5 NFL seasons he has topped 180 rushing attempts just twice.

With all the weapons the Buccaneers have at QB Tom Brady‘s disposal, Fournette is a dual threat who can run the ball 15 times and catch 5 or more passes. His projection is pretty spot on, but his ceiling is high and without the competition for touches from Jones, Fournette has the opportunity to be something special.

I wouldn’t push his ADP too much higher, but I like his chances a little better than Jones or Williams given the competition they face on their offenses.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

Analyzing Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy came to the NFL from Alabama with a big pedigree and extremely high expectations, but through his first 2 seasons (26 games) he has caught just 3 touchdowns, including none in 10 games last season.

Below, we look at Jerry Jeudy‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

With the arrival of QB Russell Wilson, hopes are high that Jeudy and WR Courtland Sutton can both thrive like WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf did when they teamed with Wilson in Seattle. In this scenario, Sutton takes over the Metcalf role and Jeudy plays the role of Lockett as the Broncos offense looks to ascend into AFC relevance for the 1st time in quite some time.

Jerry Jeudy’s ADP: 70.71

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

A dominant receiver at Alabama, Jeudy’s ranking is the lowest it has been in his 3-year NFL career. He’s ranked No. 32 among wide receivers and has a lot to prove heading into his make-or-break season when the Broncos will have to decide on whether to pick up his 5th year option at the end of 2022.

His ADP puts him at the turn of the 7th and 8th round of 10-player drafts, behind fellow wideouts Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns) at 68.67 and Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears) at 68.72 and way ahead of WR Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens) at 77.52.

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Jerry Jeudy’s 2021 stats

Games: 10

Receptions | targets: 38 | 56

Receiving yards: 467

Receiving touchdowns: 0

Where should you draft Jeudy?

I was a huge fan of Jeudy in college, but he hasn’t caught on despite showing big-play flashes as a rookie in 2020, when he averaged 16.5 yards per receptions. The quarterback play in Denver was admittedly awful and Jeudy battled injuries that kept big days from happening often.

The interesting thing about the 3 players who are in the same ADP range as Jeudy — Cooper, Mooney and Bateman — is that they are their respective team’s No. 1 receiver. Jeudy is Denver’s No. 2 and the reason for his inclusion here is the ability of Wilson to keep his top 2 wide receivers as a huge part of the game plan every week and he locks on them when forced to improvise.

With Jeudy drawing a lot of single coverage (those other 3 won’t), I would bump him up slightly, past Mooney and Cooper, but not much farther. As a WR4, he’s a low-risk, high-ceiling player capable of doing damage often, but maybe not enough to play every week. He’s a classic matchup-based plug-and-play guy with a ton of talent.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Kansas City Chiefs WR Skyy Moore

Analyzing Kansas City Chiefs WR Skyy Moore’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore begins his career a part of 1 of the best offenses in the NFL. A 2nd-round pick in 2022, Moore is one of the many new faces QB Patrick Mahomes will have to throw to this season now that Tyreek Hill is with the Miami Dolphins.

Below, we look at Skyy Moore’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Moore joins JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling this year. In the first 2 preseason games he has yet to catch a pass from Mahomes, although he was targeted twice in their game against the Washington Commanders. But you shouldn’t read too much in the preseason.

Skyy Moore’s ADP: 119.98

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Moores’s ADP in redraft leagues puts him in the range of the 10th to 12th round, depending on the league. His ADP puts him 2nd among Kansas City’s wide receivers. He sits below Smith-Schuster (61.62) but above Mecole Hardman (140.64) and Valdes-Scantling (141.86)

Among wide receivers, Moores’s ADP ranks 47th at the position, behind the New England Patriots’ Devante Parker (117.49) and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Chase Claypool (114.47), and slightly ahead of the Detroit Lions’ D.J. Chark Jr. (122.39) and the Tennessee Titans’ Treylon Burks (124.73).

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Skyy Moore’s 2021 stats

Games: 12 (at Western Michigan University)

Receptions | targets: 95 | 135

Receiving yards: 1,292

Receiving touchdowns: 10

Where should you draft Moore?

Moore has gotten positive attention at training camp, but the public sees Smith-Schuster as the heir apparent for Tyreek Hill. But even if JuJu becomes the WR1 in Kansas City, few think that he would get all of last year’s targets that went to Hill.

With Travis Kelce getting older, and the AFC West getting much tougher, the ball should makes its way into everyone’s hands. Moore has a chance to make an early impression and at his current ADP, it doesn’t hurt to take a risk on a top offense.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen

Analyzing Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

There was a time when there was a healthy debate as to who was the Minnesota Vikings’ best receiver — Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs. Nobody is asking who Minnesota’s best receiver is now — clearly Justin Jefferson — but as Thielen’s production has gone down, he has turned into a touchdown machine.

Below, we look at Adam Thielen‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

In 2018-19 (32 games), Thielen caught 204 passes for 2,649 yards and 13 TDs. Over the last 3 seasons (38 games), he has caught 171 passes for 2,069 yards, but 30 TDs, including 24 in the 28 games he has played the last 2 years.

Adam Thielen’s ADP: 54.46

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

As the clear No. 2 receiver in the offense, Thielen’s saving grace is his uncanny route running and rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins to get to a spot where he can make a spectacular catch for a score — which he does often.

His ADP puts him in a crowded field of 6th-round receivers in a 10-player league. He finds himself behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions) at 52.78 and DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks) at 53.18 and slightly ahead of Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans) at 56.08 and Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) at 56.56.

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Adam Thielen’s 2021 stats

Games: 13

Receptions | targets: 67 | 95

Receiving yards: 726

Receiving touchdowns: 10

Where should you draft Thielen?

His reduced production and growing injury history are concerning, but 2 things play in Thielen’s favor — his work ethic and Cousins.

Thielen is a technician on the field and, with all the drama that has surrounded Cousins’ time in Minnesota — he may be the least-loved quarterback by his home fan base outside of New York — Cousins has locked in on Thielen when Minnesota is in scoring territory like few QB-WR tandems.

Thielen has developed into 1 of the smartest downfield receivers in the league and has perfected the sideline back shoulder catch. If Cousins throws to a spot, he finds a way to get there as the ball is arriving. With defenses paying a lot more attention to Jefferson, Thielen is seeing a lot more single coverage.

His ranking is pretty close to spot on, although I’m inclined to bump him up a spot or 2. At this point in his career, being a fantasy WR3 is an ideal spot for him because if he continues to score touchdowns at the rate he does — about one a game over the last 2 years — he will be pushing fantasy owners to play him more weeks than not.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

Analyzing Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

It’s rare when a team makes a trade that benefits both teams in a huge way. But that’s what happened when the Minnesota Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to Buffalo for the Bills’ 1st-round draft pick in 2020. The Vikings used the pick on wide receiver Justin Jefferson and he has quickly become one of the NFL’s most dominant receivers.

Below, we look at Justin Jefferson’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

In 2 seasons, Jefferson has quickly supplanted Adam Thielen as the most dangerous weapon for quarterback Kirk Cousins. In 33 career games, Jefferson has caught 196 passes for 3,016 yards and 17 touchdowns, climbing his way up fantasy draft charts to be a mid-1st round pick.

Justin Jefferson’s ADP: 6.19

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Jefferson has moved all the way up to the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver in the league. He trails only Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) with an ADP at 5.19 and is ahead of the only other 1st-round receiver Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals) at 9.45 as well as Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) at 13.34.

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Justin Jefferson’s 2021 stats

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 108 | 167

Receiving yards: 1,616

Receiving touchdowns: 10

Where should you draft Jefferson?

The only issue I have with this pick is that it forces the hand of the owner who takes him to hit running back hard in the 2nd and 3rd rounds because the talent pool dries up quickly there. Every owner needs 1 running back in the first 2 rounds and many jump on 2 RBs with their first couple of picks.

That being said, Jefferson is merely scratching the surface of his talent. He has set extremely high goals for himself because he has backed up everything that was expected of him and exceeded those expectations. Cousins isn’t a great quarterback, but he is accurate and Jefferson has the ability to separate for long gains – he has averaged 91.4 receiving yards a game in his career and averaged 95.1 YPG last year.

When you take a wide receiver this high, it’s a long time until the draft gets back to you and you start taking running backs. Given the high bar he has set and the ability to surpass it, Kupp and Jefferson are the only players I rank as 1st-round talents, so if he’s there in the middle to the end of the round, grab him. You won’t be disappointed.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields

Analyzing Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields’ 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

The Chicago Bears made a huge investment to secure quarterback Justin Fields in the first round of the 2021 draft and, while he wasn’t the starter to begin the season, he took over relatively early and now is the unquestioned starter in Chicago.

Below, we look at Justin Fields‘ 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Fields posted very pedestrian numbers as a rookie, averaging just 187 yards a game passing and a record of 2-8 as a starter. A year later, despite not having elite weapons around him, Fields is out to prove himself as an NFL quarterback and show that he belongs on fantasy rosters.

Justin Fields’ ADP: 132.65

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

As the No. 19 rated quarterback, in 10-player leagues, Fields is slated to be a backup behind 1 of the top quarterbacks taken. His ADP finds him behind Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) at 128.30 and Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts) at 130.19 and ahead of Mac Jones (New England Patriots) at 135.34 and Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee Titans) at 135.71.

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Justin Fields’ 2021 stats

Games: 12

Passing yards: 1,870

Completions | attempts: 159 | 270

Passing touchdowns: 7

Interceptions: 10

Carries | rushing yards: 72 | 420

Rushing touchdowns: 2

Where should you draft Fields?

Fields has the athletic gifts to be a very good quarterback, but the cast around him is pretty dismal. The Bears are predicted to finish last in the NFC North and, as the team saw last year, losing becomes infectious.

The simple fact of the matter is that at his current ranking as the No. 19 quarterback, Fields is likely the backup for a guy like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. The hope is that he will only play when the starter is on his bye week.

My suggestion would be don’t wait until you get to Fields. A veteran backup like Ryan is a much safer option, but one thing that can be said about Fields is that he’s likely going to be behind a lot and he will have the opportunity to pile up garbage time fantasy points. Avoid him if you can.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown

Analyzing Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Things happen fast in the NFL and no better example of how quickly change can happen is Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown. When he and the Tennessee Titans couldn’t come to an agreement on a long-term contract extension, Tennessee traded him to the Eagles.

Below, we look at A.J. Brown’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Brown is coming off the least productive season of his career after catching 122 passes for 2,126 yards and 19 touchdowns in first 2 seasons. He joins an Eagles team that already has WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert as weapons for QB Jalen Hurts and Brown steps in as a mismatch nightmare.

A.J. Brown’s ADP: 33.95

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Brown has seen his stock slip slightly from where he was last season when he was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns and big things were expected.

In a 10-player league, Brown is a WR2 as the 12th-ranked receiver by current ADP rankings. He is behind Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers) at 29.83, is in almost a dead heat with Michael Pittman (Indianapolis Colts) at 33.92 and slightly ahead of Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) at 37.29.

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A.J. Brown’s 2021 stats

Games: 13

Receptions | targets: 63 | 105

Receiving yards: 869

Receiving touchdowns: 5

Where should you draft Brown?

The biggest question here isn’t about Brown. It’s about Hurts. Philadelphia was the top-rated rushing team in the league by design last season because Hurts struggled to take over games as a passer.

Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill isn’t going to confuse anyone with the elite QBs in the league, so the production Brown had with the Titans is expected to remain the same in Philly.

The biggest issue is that Hurts has built a rapport with Smith and Goedert, both of whom served as his safety valve receivers in 2021. Brown’s talent will stand out, but it may take some time before Hurts and Brown are fully on the same page.

Given Brown’s athleticism, it should come as no surprise if he approaches 1,000 yards and 8 or so touchdowns – which is what is expected from a WR2. Brown’s ranking is about where it should be, but unless the Eagles completely change their offensive philosophy, like his days with the Titans, his opportunities may be limited and he will have to make the most of them when they come.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson

Analyzing Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson’s 2022 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson has been a solid starter the past 2 seasons. The 2nd pick of the 3rd round in the 2020 NFL Draft was named to the 2021 all-NFC team (by the Pro Football Writers of America) in his second season. Below, we look at Antonio Gibson’s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Entering 2022, he came into camp as the expected starter. However, after a fumble in Washington’s preseason opener, he took a large amount of snaps with the 2nd team and backup QB Taylor Heinicke against Kansas City in Week 2 of the preseason.

Antonio Gibson’s ADP: 58.46

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Gibson’s ADP in redraft leagues puts him in the range of the 5th to 7th round, depending on the size of the league. His ADP is higher than all but one teammate – WR Terry McLaurin (48.41) – among all Commanders.

Among running backs, Gibson’s ADP ranks 23rd at the position, behind the Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs (53.91) and the Baltimore Ravens’ J.K. Dobbins (54.40), and slightly ahead of the San Francisco 49ers’ Elijah Mitchell (60.60) and the Green Bay Packers AJ Dillon (68.65).

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Antonio Gibson’s 2021 stats

Games: 16

Carries | rushing yards: 258 | 1,037

Rushing touchdowns: 7

Receptions | receiving yards: 42 | 294

Receiving touchdowns: 3

Where should you draft Gibson?

It appears Gibson is in the doghouse with coach Ron Rivera, which is not what you want from anyone on your fantasy team. On a macro level, Gibson increased his footprint on the offense, rushing 88 more times than his rookie season. But despite the uptick in usage, his rushing yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns decreased last season, all while his fumbles exploded to 5 in 2021 vs. none in 2020.

Gibson’s floor is just too low compared to the running backs around him, except maybe Jacobs. Gibson may not even be the starter come the regular-season opener with 3rd-round rookie Brian Robinson getting the 1st-down touches during Week 2 of the preseason, and J.D. McKissic as the expected 3rd-down back.

Tipico Sportsbook has the Commanders at -200 to miss the playoffs, so Washington may not be running the ball too often.

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