Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Green Bay Packers (1-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) wrap up their preseason schedule Thursday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NFL Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Packers vs. Chiefs odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Packers picked up the 20-10 win over the New Orleans Saints in their lone preseason game at Lambeau Field last weekend.

Packers QB Jordan Love started and completed 12-of-24 passes for 113 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, and he should see extensive action in this one, too.

The Chiefs rebounded from a Week 1 loss in Chicago to topple the Washington Commanders 24-14 last weekend at home.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was sharp against Washington, completing 12-of-19 passes for 162 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT, playing a surprising amount for the preseason. Coach Andy Reid indicated this week that Mahomes might play little, or not at all, against the Packers.

Packers at Chiefs odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:20 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Packers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Chiefs -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Packers -1.5 (-105) | Chiefs +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 35.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Packers at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Packers 23, Chiefs 16

Money line

The PACKERS (-115) are worth a look in the preseason finale, as Love is likely to see a lion’s share of the offensive snaps with QB Aaron Rodgers likely to sit yet again. Toss in the fact Mahomes is likely to sit for the Chiefs (+100), and the visitors look like quite the play.

Against the spread

The PACKERS -1.5 (-105) will save you a little bit of juice, and is a better value than the money line play unless you are hellbent on this game being decided by just 1 point.

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Over/Under

The OVER 35.5 (-112) is the lean here.

Even without Rodgers under center, the Packers offense has been fairly efficient in 2 preseason games, averaging 20.5 PPG.

The Chiefs have hit the Under in each preseason game, and that’s with Mahomes playing a considerable amount of snaps. There is concern here, but the reserves should push this one Over late.

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The Green Bay Packers (7-1) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) Sunday for their Week 9 meeting at Arrowhead Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Packers vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Obviously, the major storyline entering this Packers-Chiefs showdown is the absence of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers who will be sidelined Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19 this week.

Green Bay is coming off an impressive 24-21 upset of a then-undefeated Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football last week.

The Packers won outright as 6.5-point road underdogs despite missing superstar Davante Adams and No. 2 WR Allen Lazard who tested positive for COVID-19. Green Bay sits at 7-1 ATS and 2-6 O/U.

K.C. narrowly beat the lowly New York Giants 20-17 as 10.5-point home favorites on Monday Night Football in Week 8. The Chiefs continue to be their own worst enemy as K.C. turned the ball over twice vs. New York and committed 12 penalties. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS and 4-4 O/U.

Packers at Chiefs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Packers +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Chiefs -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Packers +7.5 (-120) | Chiefs -7.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Packers at Chiefs key injuries

Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers (health and safety protocols) out

Chiefs

RT Mike Remmers (knee) out

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Packers at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Chiefs 26, Packers 20

Money line

I was ready to take K.C.’s money line which was priced at nearly even money before the Rodgers-COVID news broke. However, the Chiefs (-350) are unplayable at this number.

The Packers rallying behind a backup quarterback against a Chiefs team that’s been bad this season wouldn’t be a shocker. But, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t entertaining K.C. as a teaser leg.

PASS.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the PACKERS +7.5 (-120) as more of a fade against a Chiefs -7.5 (+100) that shouldn’t be laying more than 7 points vs. a quality team.

Of course, the loss of Rodgers is awful for Green Bay, hence the lopsided pricing. But, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is probably the most underrated playcaller in the NFL.

Since LaFleur was hired by Green Bay in 2019, the Packers are 33-7 overall and this is a great spot for them.

For instance, Green Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog and 7-4 ATS when playing with a rest advantage since 2019. Also, K.C. is just 9-11-1 ATS as a home favorite over that span and 15-17-1 ATS following a win.

The football-based logic for my “LEAN” to the PACKERS +7.5 (-120) is Green Bay’s epic run blocking edge in the trenches. Packers RB Aaron Jones is one of the best in the business and Green Bay could certainly control the pace behind a dominant rushing effort.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 47.5 (-108) for a tiny wager if at all because we are getting to the party late. Once the Rodgers’ news broke, the market hammered the Under, which steamed the total from the mid-50s to the current number.

There’s still a smidge of value in the Under for Packers-Chiefs because K.C.’s offense has been mistake-prone all season. Green Bay should be draining the clock to avoid a shootout without the NFL’s best gunslinger (Rodgers).

Week 9 best bets

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Access more NFL coverage:

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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