Category: NFL and Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

See Also:  Running Backs | Receivers

Best Schedule Swings

Bryce Young (CAR) – This is a welcomed change. Bryce Young suffered the downside of being the first player drafted in 2023 when he went to a terrible offense that already had that top pick. With one of the worst schedules and a set of receivers limited almost entirely to Adam Thielen, he struggled. But Year 2 is already looking up with a new coaching staff and pass-happy scheme with new receivers. Now one of the biggest swings possible in schedule strength, the deck is getting stacked in favor of Young.

Kirk Cousins (ATL) – This could be spectacular. The Falcons suffered through the Arthur Smith/Desmond Ridder era when passing stats were rock-bottom. The offense already holds the top-drafted running back, wide receiver, and tight end from their respective draft classes. A new offense is getting installs that promise to return the scheme to pass-happy days. And now Cousins shows up as a Top-10 quarterback with a huge upgrade to the Falcons’ schedule.

Deshaun Watson (CLE) – Everything is in order for Deshaun Watson to finally deliver on his potential in Cleveland. He’s healthy again, They added Jerry Jeudy to Amari Cooper for starting wideouts and now he swaps a below schedule to the best on in the NFL. That’s plenty to merit a fantasy backup role that just might end up as a starter again.

Jared Goff (DET) – As if Goff needed any more advantages when he passes, that deadly set of receivers return for another big year in the same scheme  and now enjoy a Top-5 schedule.

Caleb Williams (CHI) – This should be fascinating. Unlike Bryce Young last year, the rookie Williams starts his NFL career in a stacked offense that is teeming with talent, the offensive line is finally average again, and he’ll start his career out throwing passes to all those talented receivers while facing a Top-3 passing schedule. He has rare advantages for the top player in the draft.

About the same schedule strength

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are the Bengals still saddled with one of the toughest and the Broncos dropping nearly to the bottom.

Worst Schedule Swings

Daniel Jones (NYG) – He’s back this year, amazingly, and already disappointed in every season since he was a rookie. The offense is already challenged enough to get on track each week and now losing Saquon Barkley and facing a below-average schedule won’t make Jones any better. And he has little room left to drop.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – The Fins have a great offense with elite weaponry, so this downturn may not prove a major problem, but it is troubling that they slide down to the worst schedule for quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (TB) – This may be a problem. Mayfield turned in a fine season in 2023 for the Buccaneers and wound up with a nice contract for his efforts. The offense has been limited to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and this change in schedule could ding both.

Josh Allen (BUF) – Okay, so the drop isn’t great and it comes when the Bills lose Stefon Diggs and replace him with a rookie. But Allen will add plenty of rushing yardage and scores. He’s been a Top-2 quarterback for the last three years.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Not to worry. He has a hefty slide in schedule strength but has always been better tan his opponents and gets new weapons  with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. He’ll be fine.

2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. 

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs 

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy.  This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

2024 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the more accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Receivers

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2024?

Best schedule swings

 Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – After two seasons as the No. 20 fantasy running back, Walker gets a chance to take advantage of the most dramatic swing for the position. His schedule strength rockets up from No. 30 to No. 2 and that should be apparent so long as Charbonnet doesn’t take a hefty chunk away from him.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – The offensive line won’t be an advantage unlike back in Green Bay, but Jones’ first season with the Vikings with a boost from the No. 29 up to the No. 9 schedule. He wasn’t there last year, but he suffered through the worst schedule in 2023 while with the Packers. The schedule should help get him back on track.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – Hall already exploded last year when the Jets kicked off the training wheels and let Hall become the workhorse back. He’ll enjoy a lighter schedule this time around and maybe even a passing offense that can take the pressure of him.

Javonte Williams (DEN) – After a tough 2023 when he was still recovering from his torn ACL, Williams has a nice upgrade to his schedule but he seems to have lost a bit from his injury and the Broncos added Audric Estime. This isn’t as safe of an advantage as it might seem.

Rachaad White (TB) – With the Buccaneers getting a rougher passing schedule, White may already be in line for more receptions from the backfield. But he also gets a solid upgrade in rushing schedule that should keep him on the field and productive. Bucky Irving was drafted to help out, but an easier schedule should keep White looking better and keep Irving from making inroads for a bigger share.

About the same schedule strength

The only notable teams are the Bengals and Colts who repeat what were already tough schedules from 2023.

Worst schedule swings

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Okay, so the best running back from 2023 has the worst swing in schedule strength. Is that enough to sway you from taking him with the 1.01 pick? Probably not. McCaffrey’s problem is more about staying healthy but he’s always a monster when he plays because he just switches to being a receiver if the rushing lanes are clogged. Still, will be interesting to track.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Not Bijan too! The Falcons’ stud running back is hoping to become “all that he can be” now that Arthur Smith is gone and new OC Zac Robinson wants to use him extensively in any way they can get the ball into his hands. But the dip from No. 7 down to the No. 29 is concerning for any back. On the plus, Robinson’s volume should be much higher for 2024, and he was already the No. 8 fantasy running back last year with partial use.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson should be better than their schedules, the same may not be true for the aging Elliott, who has slowed down and is now back in Dallas for the second time for a team with a lesser O-line and now the worst schedule for running backs. Elliott is no lock to remain the RB1 in Dallas all season and has fallen deep in drafts. This won’t make him any more appealing.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule strength has taken a downturn from 2023, but like McCaffrey and Robinson, Etienne is a dual-threat back and the center of their backfield that contains no real competition.

James Cook (BUF) – This is a bit concerning for a lesser talented back than the above players. Cook ended as the No. 11 fantasy back last year as a surprise, but he was facing the No. 2 best fantasy schedule for the position. He drops below average for 2024, and the Bills offense will be different with their best wideouts gone. That may help Cook see more receptions, but he’s probably not “better than his schedule.”

2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Receivers

Cardinals and Bears looking at a sweet schedule for the receivers

The strength of schedule for receivers lumps wide receivers and tight ends together since each team uses the positions differently. While overall averages are interesting, no position is as sensitive to individual matchups as are receivers facing particular defensive backs. This makes the analysis less accurate than that for running backs and quarterbacks. The best receiver for an offense invariably draws the best coverage defender, if not more than one on most plays.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.

SEE ALSO: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses for receivers last year is at the bottom of this page.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed by those defenses in 2023 .

PHI CHI DET ARI GB ATL SF NYJ IND CLE HOU
781 774 768 766 754 746 745 745 743 733 731
CAR DAL LV NO WAS BUF BAL SEA NE MIN
728 726 724 723 723 719 718 717 716 713
TEN KC NYG TB PIT CIN LAR DEN MIA LAC JAC
711 707 703 701 700 698 697 693 690 689 687

 

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoffs. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.

Wk 1-17 SOS Good Bad First 6 Gms SOS Good Bad Playoffs SOS Good Bad
CHI 5 8 3 HOU 3 4 1 CHI 3 3 0
ARI 5 8 3 NYJ 3 3 0 SF 3 3 0
DET 4 7 3 SEA 3 4 1 CIN 2 2 0
GB 3 6 3 ARI 2 3 1 CLE 2 2 0
SF 3 6 3 TB 2 4 2 TEN 2 2 0
NYJ 3 6 3 IND 2 2 0 ATL 1 2 1
BUF 2 5 3 CHI 2 3 1 LAC 1 2 1
NE 2 7 5 NE 2 3 1 GB 1 1 0
IND 1 5 4 DET 2 3 1 NO 1 1 0
BAL 1 5 4 WAS 1 2 1 MIN 0 1 1
ATL 0 6 6 GB 0 2 2 LV 0 1 1
CLE 0 6 6 SF 0 1 1 WAS 0 1 1
HOU 0 6 6 DEN 0 1 1 JAC 0 1 1
DAL 0 6 6 BAL 0 2 2 NE 0 1 1
TEN 0 6 6 BUF 0 2 2 DEN 0 1 1
CAR -1 5 6 MIA 0 1 1 NYJ 0 1 1
LV -1 4 5 PHI -1 1 2 BUF 0 1 1
NO -1 5 6 CLE -1 2 3 PHI -1 1 2
SEA -1 5 6 CAR -1 2 3 KC -1 0 1
PHI -2 5 7 ATL -1 1 2 BAL -1 0 1
WAS -2 4 6 NYG -1 2 3 ARI -1 0 1
MIN -2 3 5 KC -1 1 2 DAL -1 1 2
MIA -2 2 4 LAR -1 1 2 DET -1 0 1
KC -3 4 7 PIT -2 2 4 LAR -1 0 1
NYG -3 5 8 NO -2 2 4 CAR -1 0 1
CIN -3 4 7 DAL -2 1 3 HOU -1 1 2
LAR -3 3 6 JAC -2 1 3 MIA -1 0 1
TB -4 4 8 LAC -2 0 2 IND -2 0 2
PIT -4 5 9 MIN -2 0 2 TB -2 0 2
LAC -4 3 7 LV -3 0 3 PIT -2 0 2
JAC -4 4 8 CIN -3 1 4 NYG -3 0 3
DEN -5 2 7 TEN -3 1 4 SEA -3 0 3

Best schedule strength

DJ Moore/Keenan Allen (CHI) – The Bears feature the top quarterback from the 2024 draft and that throws risk into the equation even for an elite talent. DJ Moore was new last year and succeeded but now has the young quarterback and will share with Keenan Allen. Caleb Williams still needs to prove his talent, but he has two competent receivers enjoying the lightest schedule strength in the NFL.

Marvin Harrison Jr./Trey McBride (ARI) – The Arizona receivers also face the same best-case schedule for 2024, but unlike the Bears, their quarterback is the veteran, and the wideout is the top-drafted in his position this year. Trey McBride was a breakout second-year tight end who returns to the same quarterback, coaches and scheme. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a very advantageous position with marginal competition from the other Cardinal wideouts and also faces the softest schedule.

Amon-Ra St. Brown/Sam LaPorta (DET) – This is an interesting development. The Lions return the same scheme and players including Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was No. 2 in receptions last year (119) and Sam LaPorta who was the top fantasy tight end despite being a rookie. Now, all that greatness from 2024 is pitted against the third-best schedule strength. The only marginal downside is that there are no light matchups left after Week 13.

Garrett Wilson/Mike Williams (NYJ) – Can it finally be the Jets’ year? Garrett Wilson shined regardless of the otherwise mediocrity at quarterback last season. He gets, assumedly, a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a lighter schedule to boost his 2024 potential. Mike Williams has to learn a new offense and return from his ACL tear but at least face a lighter slate of defensive venues. The rookie Malachi Corley could also figure in if Williams is slow to return to form.

Worst schedule strength

Courtland Sutton/Josh Reynolds (DEN) – As if the coin flip between Bo Nix and Zach Wilson wasn’t scary enough, the Broncos are looking at the cruelest schedule for receivers with just two light matchups. They have a stretch during the season where eight games contain six bad venues and no good ones.

Christian Kirk/Brian Thomas (JAC) – The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley but replaced him with Brian Thomas Jr., which should be a wash, if only eventually. The only saving grace to their rough outlook with eight poor matchups is that they had one of the worst schedules last year, and 2024 may be bad, but it is slightly better than 2023.

Joshua Palmer/Quentin Johnston (LAC) – It was already scary enough losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. And bringing in a far more conservative offensive scheme that seeks to run more and pass less. But the Chargers have one of the weakest pair of starters going against one of the worst schedule strengths which include only three lighter matchups all year.

George Pickens/Van Jefferson/Roman Wilson (PIT) – The Steelers imported the Falcons offense when they hired OC Arthur Smith who is fresh from the crash-and-burn of the Atlanta passing game the last couple of seasons. Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields learn that new run-heavy scheme with sketchy receivers outside of George Pickens and face an NFL-worst nine games facing the toughest venues.

2024 weekly grid 

Fantasy points allowed per game to WRs

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for wide receivers and tight ends.

@PHI @MIN NYG DET CHI TB LAC DEN @WAS WAS JAC PHI @CIN LAR SEA @TEN
62.2 58.6 57.3 56.6 56.2 55.9 55.2 54.1 53.9 53.2 52.1 51.6 51.5 51.5 50.6 49.9
@DET @IND @MIA CIN MIA KC @SF @LAR ATL CLE @HOU @TB TEN @GB LVR HOU
49.8 49.4 48.7 47.8 47.8 47.7 47.7 47.0 46.9 46.6 46.2 45.9 45.9 45.4 45.3 45.1
PIT @LAC @JAC BUF NE @PIT @ARI @SEA SF NO ARI @DAL MIN @DEN BAL GB
45.0 44.9 44.8 44.8 44.5 44.4 44.3 44.1 43.8 43.8 43.4 43.0 43.0 42.5 42.3 41.9
@LVR @NO @BAL @NYG IND @NE @ATL CAR @CAR @BUF DAL @NYJ @CHI NYJ @KC @CLE
41.7 41.4 41.2 40.5 39.9 39.5 38.8 38.4 36.8 36.7 35.5 34.6 34.3 32.9 30.2 29.2

 

2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

How will the strength of fantasy schedule impact RBs in 2024?

Schedule strength for running backs considers both rushing and receiving yards as today’s players rarely rely on just running production anymore. The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.

Also see: Quarterbacks |Receivers

The scoring was a point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, six-point touchdowns, and a point per reception. The average fantasy points allowed to running backs are at the bottom of this page for reference. Running backs prove to be most sensitive to schedule strength of any position.

Total Points

Below are the total points for each backfield according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2023 by those defenses.

PHI LAR WAS SEA LAC DEN TEN MIA NE MIN TB
368 363 360 360 360 360 353 353 351 350 350
NO CLE BAL NYJ PIT CHI NYG JAC HOU CAR
349 349 348 347 346 345 345 344 342 342
KC BUF DET LV CIN GB ATL IND ARI DAL SF
341 340 339 337 336 335 333 332 328 327 325

 

 

 

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games against a Top-22 venue from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the Bottom-22.

Week 1-17 SOS Good Bad First 6 SOS Good Bad Playoffs SOS Good Bad
TEN 4 7 3 CLE 3 3 0 PHI 3 3 0
LAR 3 6 3 NYG 3 4 1 MIN 3 3 0
WAS 2 6 4 SEA 3 4 1 ATL 2 2 0
JAC 2 5 3 TEN 2 3 1 JAC 2 2 0
CLE 2 6 4 CHI 2 3 1 TEN 2 2 0
CHI 2 7 5 HOU 2 3 1 DEN 1 2 1
DEN 1 5 4 MIA 2 3 1 IND 1 1 0
LAC 1 7 6 LV 1 2 1 LAC 1 2 1
NYG 1 7 6 PIT 1 2 1 NE 1 1 0
HOU 1 6 5 LAR 1 2 1 SEA 1 1 0
MIA 1 6 5 JAC 0 1 1 TB 1 2 1
SEA 1 6 5 CAR 0 1 1 GB 1 1 0
PIT 0 5 5 MIN 0 1 1 KC 1 1 0
NE 0 5 5 TB 0 2 2 NO 1 2 1
PHI 0 6 6 DEN 0 2 2 CAR 0 1 1
CAR 0 4 4 KC 0 2 2 HOU 0 1 1
MIN 0 5 5 LAC 0 2 2 CHI 0 1 1
BAL 0 6 6 NE 0 2 2 CIN 0 1 1
BUF 0 5 5 SF 0 2 2 NYG -1 1 2
NYJ 0 6 6 WAS 0 2 2 PIT -1 0 1
DET 0 6 6 BUF -1 0 1 BAL -1 0 1
TB -1 5 6 BAL -1 2 3 BUF -1 1 2
ATL -1 4 5 GB -1 1 2 LAR -1 0 1
IND -1 4 5 DET -1 2 3 LV -1 0 1
GB -1 3 4 CIN -2 1 3 MIA -1 0 1
NO -2 5 7 NO -2 1 3 NYJ -1 0 1
KC -2 4 6 DAL -2 1 3 WAS -1 0 1
CIN -3 4 7 IND -2 1 3 CLE -1 1 2
DAL -3 4 7 PHI -3 0 3 DAL -2 0 2
ARI -3 5 8 ARI -3 1 4 DET -2 0 2
SF -3 5 8 NYJ -3 1 4 ARI -3 0 3
LV -4 3 7 ATL -4 0 4 SF -3 0 3

 

Best schedule strength

Tyjae Spears/Tony Pollard (TEN) – The schedule is less important than installing an entirely different offensive scheme, but it is a factor. Especially when the Titans own the most advantageous set of opponents in the NFL based from last year’s stats, the O-line is still a work in progress, and the passing effort should be more productive than it has for many years. There should be fewer carries than in recent seasons, but either Tyjae Spears or Tony Pollard could surprise – if they can earn the bigger share in this committee approach post-Derrick Henry.

Kyren Williams/Blake Corum (LAR) – Kyren Williams took over in his second season and starting in Week 12, was as good as any fantasy running back in 2023. Now, he enjoys one of the best schedules with just three bad venues and a solid six best venues. It should propel Williams to being an elite back again this year, but the addition of  Blake Corum potentially muddies the waters with a committee approach of some measure. But Williams’ injury history could mean Corum gets at least a few games to himself.

Austin Ekeler/Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – This is another situation where the offense will be all new, and the O-line is a concern. There will also be a committee involving Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson. However, the Commanders benefit from one of the lighter slates of opponents, and the backfield should profit with four of the final five fantasy games being at home. A Week 14 bye won’t help teams in large contests for their playoffs.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule is better than most, but not hugely advantageous. Facing two good venues and no bad ones during fantasy playoffs is a plus for the player who ended as the No. 3 fantasy running back last year on a team that did not bother to get any new help for the backfield.

Worst schedule strength

Zamir White/Alexander Mattison (LV) – The Raiders are installing a new offense with OC Luke Getsy from Chicago, and they lost Josh Jacobs. The addition of Alexander Mattison to the backfield isn’t encouraging and Zamir White enters his third season with a spotty resume. Throw in an NFL-worst schedule for fantasy backs and the attraction is even less. Starting in Week 6, the Raiders face seven bad venues and only one light matchup.

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Certainly, if any back is better than his schedule, it would be Christian McCaffrey. There’s no denying how productive he is when healthy and helped many fantasy teams reach their playoffs. The 49ers get three bad venues for the fantasy playoff weeks, but McCaffrey tends to just turn into a receiver when needed.

James Conner/Trey Benson (ARI) – Conner comes off his career-best season, but he turns 30 next year, and the Cardinals snapped up the second overall running back in the NFL draft when they picked Trey Benson. It will be a committee that will most likely evolve as the season progresses and Conner always misses three or four games. Their schedule works against them with an NFL-worst eight games played at toughest venues. And it works out poorly when they start out with almost nothing but bad matchups for the first half of the season, then brighten up with four of the next five games against easier opponents. And then, back to facing three tough defenses to end their fantasy year.

Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle (DAL) – The largest concern is the quality of rushers – an aging Ezekiel Elliott is back and paired with Rico Dowdle. There’s a chance that the Cowboys will find someone, anyone, after the final cutdown, but they only get four games in easier venues and seven with the tougher opponents.

Zack Moss (CIN) – The Bengals let Joe Mixon leave for the Texans and replaced him with Zack Moss, who has never been better than the No. 31 fantasy back. Chase Brown will figure in and the backfield looks less appealing for 2024 when the schedule works against them. Their final five games after the Week 12 bye include three tough matchups and just one softer opponent in Week 17.

2024 weekly grid  

Fantasy points allowed per game 

These are the values from 2023 that were applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for running backs.

DEN @ARI CAR LVR WAS @SEA IND NYJ MIA SEA @WAS NYG CIN GB @IND CHI
33.9 31.9 31.2 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.4
DAL @PIT TEN @NE @LAC @CHI ARI @JAC @BUF @NYJ @BAL LAC CLE HOU JAC @NYG
24.3 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.5 22.5 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.1
@KC SF @DEN MIN PHI @LVR @NO @PHI @HOU @MIN NO BUF @ATL PIT ATL @CAR
21.0 20.8 20.7 20.2 20.1 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4
@LAR TB @GB @CLE @CIN KC BAL @TB @SF DET @DET NE LAR @TEN @DAL @MIA
18.3 18.3 18.2 18.0 18.0 17.6 17.4 16.8 16.2 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.0 14.1 13.6 13.5

 

2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

Who gets the easiest schedule of any NFL quarterback?

The Huddle created the very first strength of schedule for fantasy football positions in 1997 and has continuously tweaked and refined it. This provides an early expectation for your fantasy players by applying the averages allowed by defenses last year to current schedules.

The analysis also extends to the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 individual “defensive matchups” depending on the game location.

The scoring was a point for every 20 passing yards and four-point touchdowns. Rushing is a point for every 10 yards and six-point scores. The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses to quarterbacks are at the bottom of this page for reference.

See also: Running Backs | Receivers

Total Points Allowed

PHI CHI DET ARI GB CLE CAR NYJ SEA SF ATL
344 339 338 335 331 327 326 325 325 324 324
NO NE HOU IND TEN WAS LV DAL BAL NYG
322 321 320 319 319 318 317 315 315 314
MIN PIT LAR BUF KC LAC TB CIN DEN MIA JAC
313 312 312 312 311 310 307 305 300 299 297

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense, according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2023 by those defenses.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.

Wk 1-17 SOS Good Bad First 6 SOS Good Bad Wk 15-17 SOS Good Bad
DET 6 8 2 TB 3 4 1 CHI 3 3 0
CHI 5 9 4 DET 3 4 1 CIN 2 2 0
NE 4 7 3 ARI 3 4 1 SF 2 2 0
ARI 4 8 4 WAS 2 3 1 TEN 2 2 0
NYJ 3 7 4 SEA 2 4 2 DET 1 1 0
SEA 2 7 5 NYJ 2 3 1 LAC 1 2 1
GB 2 6 4 HOU 2 3 1 NE 1 2 1
TEN 1 5 4 NE 1 3 2 NYJ 1 2 1
SF 1 5 4 IND 1 2 1 ATL 1 2 1
NO 1 6 5 CHI 1 2 1 CLE 1 1 0
HOU 1 6 5 LAR 0 2 2 NO 1 1 0
DAL 1 7 6 KC 0 1 1 BUF 0 1 1
IND 0 5 5 JAC 0 1 1 DEN 0 0 0
CLE 0 6 6 GB 0 1 1 LAR 0 1 1
CAR 0 5 5 CLE 0 3 3 LV 0 1 1
BAL 0 4 4 CAR 0 2 2 WAS 0 1 1
ATL 0 6 6 TEN -1 0 1 GB 0 1 1
WAS -1 5 6 SF -1 1 2 DAL -1 1 2
PHI -2 5 7 PHI -1 1 2 NYG -1 0 1
NYG -2 5 7 NO -1 2 3 BAL -1 0 1
MIN -2 3 5 MIA -1 1 2 CAR -1 0 1
LV -2 3 5 DEN -1 1 2 HOU -1 1 2
LAR -2 5 7 BUF -1 1 2 PHI -1 1 2
LAC -2 4 6 BAL -1 1 2 JAC -1 0 1
KC -2 5 7 ATL -1 1 2 MIN -1 1 2
BUF -2 3 5 PIT -2 1 3 PIT -2 0 2
PIT -3 4 7 NYG -2 2 4 ARI -2 0 2
TB -4 4 8 LV -2 1 3 IND -2 0 2
JAC -4 2 6 LAC -2 0 2 MIA -2 0 2
CIN -4 4 8 DAL -2 1 3 SEA -2 0 2
MIA -5 1 6 MIN -3 0 3 TB -2 0 2
DEN -5 2 7 CIN -4 1 5 KC -2 0 2

 

Best schedule strength

Jared Goff (DET) –  The Lions already ranked No. 5 in pass yards last year  and now get the lightest schedule based on the previous season with only two of the worst 21 venues. They look to get a hot start with five of their first six matchups against the weakest venues. Jared Goff redeemed himself in Detroit, and 2024 doesn’t look to change that.

Caleb Williams (CHI) – This could be one of those great schedules wasted on a rookie learning the ropes. Fantasy fans are naturally suspicious of a rookie quarterback but notable is that Williams enjoys five straight of the most productive venues to close out his fantasy season. By then, he’ll have  some  experience and could help out if your usual starter is no longer on the field in December.

Drake Maye (NE) – This rookie doesn’t enjoy similar advantageous matchups to end the year like Caleb Williams, but he only has three bad matchups on his schedule. There are already plenty of questions around his receivers and the Pats are starting over on offense which will not help. But the schedule won’t be why his stats don’t meet expectations.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – His season ends with a tougher slate of opponents, but he gets six softer venues over his first nine games and only one bad matchup (Week 1 @BUF). Murray hasn’t been a fantasy advantage for the last two years, but the second season in OC Drew Petzing’s offense enjoys a much better schedule. He’s boosted into being at least a worthy backup fantasy quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – Coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in NFL history, Rodgers starts out with an upgraded offense and O-line, and even one of the better schedules in the league. Week 17 in Buffalo may be tricky, but the month prior to that should help fantasy playoff teams.

Worst schedule strength

Somebody (DEN) – The Broncos will spend the summer deciding if Bo Nix, Zach Wilson, or Jarrett Stidham will be the Week 1 starter. But Bo Nix will take over the second the coaches think he can. Unfortunately, he’ll face the NFL’s worst fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. It clears up later in the year, but he’ll face an uphill stretch for the first three months.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Not to worry. The Dolphins’ schedule is tough but mostly due to a lack of easy matchups. And the No. 2 offense in passing yardage from last year already proved to be better than their schedule.

Joe Burrow (CIN) – The Bengals face a challenging opening stretch with six of their first seven weeks at the tougher venues. The offense looks slightly worse overall from 2023, but a lesser backfield may force them to throw even more. This is a challenging schedule, but Burrow is an elite quarterback.

Baker Mayfield (TB) – He’s reinvigorated his career while in Tampa Bay  and took advantage of a moderately easy schedule last year. But Mayfield enters 2024 with an NFL-worst eight matchups against the top defensive venues from last year. Oddly enough, he starts the year with four straight easy matchups and then never has another for the rest of the year. He might be worth pairing him with a quarterback that ends the year with a lighter schedule.

Russell Wilson (PIT) – He hasn’t been a true fantasy factor for the last three years, and now moves onto the Steelers where the schedule is no friend thanks to playing in the AFC North. Adding in Justin Fields who wants to prove his career is not over means added risk on top of a worse slate of games.

2024 weekly schedule strength by team 

Fantasy points allowed 

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for quarterbacks per opponent and venue.

@PHI DEN @WAS WAS CHI LAC DET @ARI MIA NYG TB JAC @MIN PHI CLE CIN
28.7 28.5 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.1 22.4 21.8
LAR @DET @SF SEA @JAC @IND ARI LVR KC @CIN PIT @LAR @PIT ATL @GB @LAC
21.5 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.6
@TEN @HOU NO TEN @MIA @CHI @ATL BUF NYJ IND @TB @NO NE @SEA DAL HOU
19.5 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.8
@DEN @BAL GB @LVR CAR @DAL MIN @NE BAL SF @BUF @CAR @NYG @NYJ @KC @CLE
17.8 17.6 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.7 15.7 14.4 14.3 14.0 13.2 12.8

 

2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
GB 28.3 6.5 -21.8 GB 10 31
PIT 25.7 10.7 -14.9 PIT 7 28
CLE 21.2 18.4 -2.8 CLE 2 20
TB 19.5 12.5 -7.0 TB 5 24
MIN 16.1 7.1 -9.0 MIN 9 27
NO 14.3 8.0 -6.3 NO 8 23
KC 10.0 29.6 19.6 KC 1 6
BAL 9.5 1.8 -7.6 BAL 14 25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats  and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
CIN 6.9 -9.2 -16.1 CIN 22 29
BUF 3.3 -17.0 -20.3 BUF 24 30
WAS 1.2 0.0 -1.2 WAS 18 18
LAR 1.2 1.2 0.0 LAR 15 17
DET 0.3 12.0 11.7 DET 6 13
MIA -4.2 -29.6 -25.5 MIA 30 32
CHI -4.6 -7.7 -3.1 CHI 21 21
TEN -10.6 17.4 28.0 TEN 3 2
JAC -12.0 2.1 14.2 JAC 13 11
CAR -19.0 -20.7 -1.7 CAR 26 19
NYJ -19.3 0.0 19.3 NYJ 17 7
DEN -19.5 2.5 21.9 DEN 11 5
HOU -19.9 -11.3 8.6 HOU 23 15
SF -22.2 2.4 24.6 SF 12 4
IND -22.3 -3.1 19.1 IND 19 8
LAC -22.6 15.4 38.0 LAC 4 1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ARI -23.9 -7.3 16.5 ARI 20 10
PHI -24.2 -28.6 -4.4 PHI 28 22
SEA -24.9 -33.0 -8.0 SEA 32 26
ATL -25.0 -21.1 3.9 ATL 27 16
NE -26.1 0.4 26.5 NE 16 3
LV -38.0 -19.8 18.2 LV 25 9
DAL -41.2 -29.2 11.9 DAL 29 12
NYG -42.2 -32.8 9.4 NYG 31 14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.

2023 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2022 and 2023 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. 

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few minor differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ATL 76.8 33.3 -43.5 ATL 3 32
LV 74.6 37.7 -36.9 LV 1 31
DEN 52.1 27.3 -24.9 DEN 7 29
DAL 48.3 34.8 -13.5 DAL 2 25
CAR 46.7 19.0 -27.7 CAR 11 30
CHI 43.4 29.0 -14.3 CHI 4 26
NYG 40.0 21.2 -18.8 NYG 10 27
JAC 32.5 22.5 -10.1 JAC 9 21

Kyle Pitts / Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – Great schedule, new offense and a team that still needs to come together for HC Arthur Smith’s third season. Pitts returns from a knee injury which is more important for his value, but Drake London looked situated to take a second-year leap.

Davante Adams / Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders – The quarterback situation will be the limitation and the second season of HC Josh McDaniel has taken a step backward in shuffling the roster.  Adams has always performed well, and there could be some surprising value here. But the risk is undeniable at least until there’s comfort around the quarterback position.

Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – As bad as the Broncos’ offense seemed last year, the reality is that Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both had career-best seasons. Sure, there was talk about trading a wideout away but it never happened. The schedule improves from No. 29 up to No. 7 and the Broncos appear poised to improve, even while they learn the new offense under HC Sean Payton. The schedule should help.

CeeDee Lamb / Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys finally replaced Amari Cooper after a season without anyone besides Lamb to move the offense. Brandin Cooks changes teams yet again, but the schedule should help him offer fantasy value. There’s a new offense to learn and questions regarding how losing OC Kellen Moore will impact the offense. But feel good about drafting Lamb and Cooks should offer better value than expected which describes the entirety of his on-the-move career.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
BAL 29.6 8.1 -21.5 BAL 14 28
CIN 26.4 15.2 -11.2 CIN 12 23
NYJ 12.4 12.4 0.0 NYJ 13 17
PIT 10.1 -0.4 -10.5 PIT 18 22
TEN 3.5 -9.3 -12.8 TEN 21 24
MIA 1.2 0.0 -1.2 MIA 17 18
TB -3.7 24.3 27.9 TB 8 6
DET -4.5 0.9 5.4 DET 16 14
NE -8.7 -13.2 -4.5 NE 26 19
IND -11.5 4.7 16.2 IND 15 10
CLE -14.3 -23.5 -9.2 CLE 29 20
BUF -16.4 -10.3 6.1 BUF 23 13
NO -17.4 27.7 45.1 NO 6 3
MIN -17.6 -16.0 1.6 MIN 28 16
HOU -17.7 -7.1 10.6 HOU 20 12
ARI -23.4 -12.6 10.8 ARI 25 11

The good news from this middle tier is that both the Buccaneers and Saints enjoy another season of living in the NFC South where defenses are optional.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
SEA -31.3 -4.8 26.4 SEA 19 7
SF -32.1 -12.3 19.8 SF 24 9
GB -32.9 28.4 61.3 GB 5 1
PHI -47.1 -13.8 33.4 PHI 27 4
LAR -48.7 -43.9 4.7 LAR 32 15
KC -50.6 -24.6 26.0 KC 30 8
LAC -69.5 -9.9 59.6 LAC 22 2
WAS -71.4 -40.4 31.0 WAS 31 5

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – Schedule strength is always least predictive for receivers, but the Commanders’ opponents this year will prove more challenging than 2022. This is made worse with a quarterback situation that will likely end up with Sam Howell who only completed 11 passes as a rookie. If Jacoby Brissett wins the starting job (or Howell loses it at any point), it will likely be better for the wideouts. But new OC Eric Bieniemy steps into a very different world than the one he left in Kansas City.

Keenan Allen / Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – There’s also the rookie Quentin Johnson involved this year. While the schedule drops from No. 2 to No. 22, this is a powerful offense with Justin Herbert under center. The schedule won’t help, and the Bolts learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore. But there’s enough talent on both ends of a pass to compensate for the tougher slate of opponents.

Kadarius Toney / Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have  worse schedule, but arguably the best quarterback. This is HC Andy Reid’s team, so the loss of OC Eric Bieniemy shouldn’t matter much. And if any team is better than their schedule, it is the World Champion Chiefs.

Cooper Kupp / Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams – Hard to believe that this time last year, the Rams just won a Super Bowl and all was right with their world. Cooper Kupp was still the center of their offense up until he went down with a severe high ankle sprain. The Rams did not add anyone notable as a second wideout, and Jefferson hasn’t proven to be up to the task even as a complementary receiver. Regardless of the schedule, it will continue to be Kupp as the primary read on every pass.

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

Best Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ATL 38.2 20.7 -17.4 ATL 1 28
LV 34.9 16.9 -18.0 LV 2 29
CAR 28.3 5.3 -23.0 CAR 10 32
DEN 15.9 11.8 -4.1 DEN 4 23
NO 13.3 11.7 -1.6 NO 5 21
PIT 11.7 -8.3 -20.1 PIT 25 30
CLE 10.5 -12.0 -22.5 CLE 29 31
BAL 8.9 0.7 -8.2 BAL 15 27

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – No NFL team ran fewer plays or gained fewer yards than the Falcons last year. So the rebuilding year happened at a bad time, with the schedule already working against them. Throw in a rookie quarterback and the results were not shocking. But the upgrade in quarterback schedule is immense as HC Arthur Smith’s second season kicks off with a more season crew of Ridder, Drake London, a healthy Kyle Pitts (hopefully) and the hype monster of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons may not rocket to the top of the standings, but an improvement appears a lock and the schedule is going to work for them this year.

Quarterbacks, Las Vegas Raiders – Maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it will be Brian Hoyer. Maybe it will be fourth-round pick Aiden O’Connell. The only certainty is that it will not be Derek Carr for the first time in ten years. The offense under HC Josh McDaniels ended with moderate passing stats though most of that all went to Davante Adams.  And the schedule was one of the worst, so just ending average on the pass was a success, even if Carr’s final year was in a tough situation. There will be  opportunity once it is certain which quarterback is the starter.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – Optimism is high for the 1.01 pick of this year. He lands on a rebuilding Carolina team that’s starting over, again, and restocked their offense mostly through free agency. It’s a tall order to expect even the best player in college to step into a highly productive role on a team that’s starting over with coaches, scheme and personnel, but at least the schedule won’t work against him as he starts to learn the ropes.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos were average at best in the first season of Wilson under center. But now HC Sean Payton shows up to do his magic to the sluggish offense of the last few seasons. The jury is still out on Wilson, who hasn’t been a difference-maker in the last two years, and the offense hasn’t had many upgrades while rumors abounded regarding  potential trades of their wideouts. But Wilson gets a Top-5 schedule for 2022, and just in time to learn a new offense that worked wonders in New Orleans.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
TB 6.6 6.9 0.3 TB 8 16
CHI 4.9 13.3 8.4 CHI 3 9
DAL 3.2 -1.4 -4.6 DAL 20 24
KC 2.9 6.5 3.6 KC 9 14
MIA 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 MIA 19 22
NYJ -0.1 0.0 0.0 NYJ 17 17
CIN -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 CIN 18 18
JAC -2.7 1.1 3.8 JAC 13 13
TEN -3.1 -10.1 -7.0 TEN 27 26
NE -4.0 0.6 4.6 NE 16 12
MIN -4.0 -5.4 -1.5 MIN 23 20
GB -6.1 10.5 16.6 GB 6 4
NYG -6.8 -4.9 1.8 NYG 21 15
LAR -9.1 -14.0 -4.8 LAR 31 25
BUF -11.0 1.1 12.1 BUF 12 6
SEA -14.8 -8.9 5.9 SEA 26 11

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are both the Titans (Ryan Tannehill / Will Levis) and the Rams (Matt Stafford) still face a daunting set of opponents again this year.

Worst Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
HOU -15.5 -7.2 8.4 HOU 24 10
DET -16.4 2.5 18.9 DET 11 3
LAC -19.0 9.5 28.5 LAC 7 1
IND -19.7 -5.4 14.3 IND 22 5
WAS -20.9 -11.4 9.5 WAS 28 8
PHI -21.1 0.8 21.9 PHI 14 2
SF -22.7 -13.0 9.7 SF 30 7
ARI -25.2 -26.2 -1.0 ARI 32 19

Kyler Murray (ARI) –  There are many red flags surrounding the Cards and Murray.  His planned return is uncertain, and his receiving corps was stripped of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he also faces the worst schedule and the largest drop in schedule strength, whenever he can return from his knee injury of 2022.

Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers – Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold? Given the recent injury history of the 49ers’ quarterbacks, maybe it’ll be a bit of all three. The schedule strength suffers a dramatic swing from the No. 7 to the No. 30 ranked set of opponents. The 49ers defense helps prevent the need for a shootout and the rushing offense is in great shape with Christian McCaffrey. The overall talent in receivers is there, but an iffy situation at quarterback coupled with one of the worst schedule strengths makes the position risky for 2023.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Herbert enjoyed what turned out to be the weakest schedule against quarterbacks last year, and while the stats suggest that he’ll have a tougher challenge, it may not be that noticed. The Chargers drafted Quentin Johnson to give them three great options at wideouts, and the drop from No. 1 was only to No. 7 – still better than most of the league.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy fans want to see the Colt’s rookie evolve into the next Lamar Jackson but he already missed last year’s softer No. 5 ranked schedule. Richardson projects as most dangerous, and more valuable in fantasy, from his rushing ability.  The schedule is not kind but he’s not expected to immediately produced a high-powered passing attack.

2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder faces the best schedule of any NFL quarterback.

The Huddle created the fantasy football schedule strength by positions in 1997 and has continuously tweaked and refined it. This provides an early expectation for your fantasy players by applying the averages allowed by defenses last year to current schedules.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 individual “defensive matchups” depending on the game location.

The scoring was a point for every 20 passing yards and four-point touchdowns. Rushing is a point for every 10 yards and six-point scores. The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses to quarterbacks are at the bottom of this page for reference.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense, according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2022 by those defenses.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.

Notable schedules

Desmond Ridder (ATL) –  The only “bad” games that the Falcons face are homestands against the Texans and Buccaneers. And the Texans usually lost to the run anyway. The Atlanta offense enters Year 2 under HC Arthur Smith with spotty results last season, but the schedule won’t get in the way of Ridder showing improvement in his second season.

Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) – Almost half of the Raiders games face bottom-22 defensive venues and Garoppolo isn’t going to bother with taking off on a run. The Las Vegas offense looks to get more conservative, but HC Josh McDaniels second season gets a schedule gift when they pass.

Derek Carr (NO) – The Saints open with a tough stretch of three bad matchups in their first six games, but it gets far kinder the rest of the way with six of the seven matchups facing weaker defensive venues from Week 7 through 14. He’ll finish better than he starts and the Saints return all three starters at wideout.

Jared Goff (DET) – Four of the first six games are advantageous matchups that should get the Lions’ offense get on track while they integrate Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Marvin Jones into the system. Jameson Williams misses the opening weeks but adds to the crew when the schedule turns average the rest of the way.

Justin Fields (CHI) – Fields used his legs to produce most fantasy points last year, but the Bears added DJ Moore to Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, and Fields faces an NFL-best nine games against the lesser defensive venues from last year. That should help even out his fantasy points if he ends up rushing less and passing more often.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – He tore his ACL late last year and his return date isn’t yet certain. Whenever he does show up, it will be to a new offensive scheme and the worst schedule of any NFL quarterback – eight bad matchups and not one good game. Adding the schedule to Murray’s injury situation and all of the Cardinals fantasy players get rightfully dinged.

Brock Purdy/Trey Lance/Sam Darnold (SF) – The 49ers are a great team and a very complex offense. There’s no certainty which quarterback plays when, and no matter who is under center, they go against one of the toughest schedules in the league. It all improves starting in Week 14 with just one more bad matchup, but seven of their first 12 games face tougher matchups than most.

Sam Howell (WAS) -The keys to the offense are given to second-year quarterback Sam Howell, but he starts out with five of his first seven games playing in tough defensive venues. The schedule clears up starting in Week 8 but a slow start is always a problem in fantasy football.

2023 weekly schedule strength by team

Wk ARI ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE
1 @WAS CAR HOU @NYJ @ATL GB @CLE CIN
2 NYG GB @CIN LV NO @TB BAL @PIT
3 DAL @DET IND @WAS @SEA @KC LAR TEN
4 @SF @JAC @CLE MIA MIN DEN @TEN BAL
5 CIN HOU @PIT JAC @DET @WAS @ARI BYE
6 @LAR WAS @TEN NYG @MIA MIN SEA SF
7 @SEA @TB DET @NE BYE LV BYE @IND
8 BAL @TEN @ARI TB HOU @LAC @SF @SEA
9 @CLE MIN SEA @CIN IND @NO BUF ARI
10 ATL @ARI CLE DEN @CHI CAR HOU @BAL
11 @HOU BYE CIN NYJ DAL @DET @BAL PIT
12 LAR NO @LAC @PHI @TEN @MIN PIT @DEN
13 @PIT @NYJ BYE BYE @TB BYE @JAC @LAR
14 BYE TB LAR @KC @NO DET IND JAC
15 SF @CAR @JAC DAL ATL @CLE MIN CHI
16 @CHI IND @SF @LAC GB ARI @PIT @HOU
17 @PHI @CHI MIA NE @JAC ATL @KC NYJ
18 SEA @NO PIT @MIA TB @GB CLE @CIN
Wk DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC
1 @NYG LV @KC @CHI @BAL JAC @IND DET
2 NYJ WAS SEA @ATL IND @HOU KC @JAC
3 @ARI @MIA ATL NO @JAC @BAL HOU CHI
4 NE @CHI @GB DET PIT LAR ATL @NYJ
5 @SF NYJ CAR @LV @ATL TEN @BUF @MIN
6 @LAC @KC @TB BYE NO @JAC IND DEN
7 BYE GB @BAL @DEN BYE CLE @NO LAC
8 LAR KC LV MIN @CAR NO @PIT @DEN
9 @PHI BYE BYE LAR TB @CAR BYE MIA
10 NYG @BUF @LAC @PIT @CIN @NE SF BYE
11 @CAR MIN CHI LAC ARI BYE TEN PHI
12 WAS CLE GB @DET JAC TB @HOU @LV
13 SEA @HOU @NO KC DEN @TEN CIN @GB
14 PHI @LAC @CHI @NYG @NYJ @CIN @CLE BUF
15 @BUF @DET DEN TB @TEN PIT BAL @NE
16 @MIA NE @MIN @CAR CLE @ATL @TB LV
17 DET LAC @DAL @MIN TEN LV CAR CIN
18 @WAS @LV MIN CHI @IND HOU @TEN @LAC
Wk LAC LAR LV MIA MIN NE NO NYG
1 MIA @SEA @DEN @LAC TB PHI TEN DAL
2 @TEN SF @BUF @NE @PHI MIA @CAR @ARI
3 @MIN @CIN PIT DEN LAC @NYJ @GB @SF
4 LV @IND @LAC @BUF @CAR @DAL TB SEA
5 BYE PHI GB NYG KC NO @NE @MIA
6 DAL ARI NE CAR @CHI @LV @HOU @BUF
7 @KC PIT @CHI @PHI SF BUF JAC WAS
8 CHI @DAL @DET NE @GB @MIA @IND NYJ
9 @NYJ @GB NYG @KC @ATL WAS CHI @LV
10 DET BYE NYJ BYE NO IND @MIN @DAL
11 @GB SEA @MIA LV @DEN BYE BYE @WAS
12 BAL @ARI KC @NYJ CHI @NYG @ATL NE
13 @NE CLE BYE @WAS BYE LAC DET BYE
14 DEN @BAL MIN TEN @LV @PIT CAR GB
15 @LV WAS LAC NYJ @CIN KC NYG @NO
16 BUF NO @KC DAL DET @DEN @LAR @PHI
17 @DEN @NYG @IND @BAL GB @BUF @TB LAR
18 KC @SF DEN BUF @DET NYJ ATL PHI
Wk NYJ PHI PIT SEA SF TB TEN WAS
1 BUF @NE SF LAR @PIT @MIN @NO ARI
2 @DAL MIN CLE @DET @LAR CHI LAC @DEN
3 NE @TB @LV CAR NYG PHI @CLE BUF
4 KC WAS @HOU @NYG ARI @NO CIN @PHI
5 @DEN @LAR BAL BYE DAL BYE @IND CHI
6 PHI @NYJ BYE @CIN @CLE DET BAL @ATL
7 BYE MIA @LAR ARI @MIN ATL BYE @NYG
8 @NYG @WAS JAC CLE CIN @BUF ATL PHI
9 LAC DAL TEN @BAL BYE @HOU @PIT @NE
10 @LV BYE GB WAS @JAC TEN @TB @SEA
11 @BUF @KC @CLE @LAR TB @SF @JAC NYG
12 MIA BUF @CIN SF @SEA @IND CAR @DAL
13 ATL SF ARI @DAL @PHI CAR IND MIA
14 HOU @DAL NE @SF SEA @ATL @MIA BYE
15 @MIA @SEA @IND PHI @ARI @GB HOU @LAR
16 WAS NYG CIN @TEN BAL JAC SEA @NYJ
17 @CLE ARI @SEA PIT @WAS NO @HOU SF
18 @NE @NYG @BAL @ARI LAR @CAR JAC DAL

Fantasy points per venue allowed to quarterbacks

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for quarterbacks.

Enjoy this early special content release? Check out the remaining positions by signing up to our 2023 Draft Guide, which goes live June 15!