Category: NFL and Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.

2021 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Akers (LAR) – This is an exciting development for the second-year player. After starting slowly and then catching fire late in his rookie year, Akers is the clear-cut primary back for the Rams and trades the No. 30 schedule strength for the No. 8. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the needle points upward for the Ram’s backfield.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While normally placing in the Top-5 of running backs each year, Elliott tumbled to No. 9 when the Cowboy’s offense went cold without Dak Prescott. That coincided with facing the No. 31 rushing schedule and Elliott turned in his worst season. Now Dak is back, and the schedule at least rises to only average.

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The biggest problem will be relying on either back unless an injury or coaching move produces more clarity for the Denver backfield. The problem is that the Broncos get the No. 1 rushing schedule for 2021, so both backs may look equally as good. This is a good spot to be if either is removed from the rotation for any reason.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon’s biggest issue has been staying healthy, and working behind an ineffective offensive line for four seasons has not helped that cause. At least the schedule is better, and the offense improved with Joe Burrow last year. The point shift suggests better production, but he’s still facing the No. 10 rushing schedule with durability and blocking questions.

Chris Carson (SEA) – He signed a three-year extension to remain the primary back for the Seahawks but had injury issues last year along with one of the toughest schedules. Carson has been a lock for 1,000 yards and eight to ten touchdowns when healthy, and the schedule becomes a friend for 2021. Rashaad Penny hasn’t been a factor for three years, and Carson takes the look of a solid RB2 addition to a fantasy team.

Worst Swings

Aaron Jones (GB) – The Packers let Jamaal Williams go and promoted A.J. Dillon, so fewer short-yardage rushing touchdowns may go to Jones. And worse yet, he enjoyed the No. 2 rushing schedule in 2020 and ended up as the No. 5 back. But, he incurs one of the most dramatic swings possible, swapping that No. 2 for a No. 31 this year thanks to facing defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Throw in the Rodgers situation and he looks far riskier this season.

 Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones (TB) – Their schedule was only average last year but drops to the worst in the league for rushing in 2021. That won’t make the normal drop in production from a Super Bowl season any easier to avoid. The duo are in a timeshare, and there may be even more hands in the pie with second-year Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard there.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – While the Colts do have a significant rise in rushing  schedule strength, they still face the No. 11-ranked slate of games. The No. 1 schedule helped the rookie Taylor end up as the No. 6 fantasy back. His fortunes are more sensitive to the effectiveness of Carson Wentz and the passing offense.

2021 Schedule Swings: Passing

How does the schedule compare to last year?

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Newton, Mac Jones (NE) – As would often be the case, the team with the best positive swing has an unclear situation at quarterback and a complete makeover of the receiving corps. The Patriots ranked near the bottom in all passing categories in 2020, including dead last with only ten passing touchdowns. Newton did more damage as a runner which means nothing in this metric. If Mac Jones shows up at any point as the starter, he’ll get an advantage with the schedule compared to what Newton struggled against last year.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Jones struggled last year against what became the worst passing schedule and it showed. After a promising start in 2019, he fell off the fantasy map with Saquon Barkley’s departure and a set of receivers that also incurred rampant injuries and underperformed. Now the G-Men have restocked the receivers, Barkley’s back, and the schedule at least becomes average in strength.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance (SF) – Like the Patriots, the 49ers welcome a dramatic positive shift in schedule strength from last year and also have an unclear quarterback situation. The 49ers were decimated by injuries in 2020 and not one of their starters lasted all 16 games. A healthy Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle going against the No. 4 fantasy schedule for quarterbacks should pay off well, if they make it clear who the starter will be and then stick with him.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – The rookie Wilson lands in what has been a Siberia for quarterbacks, but at least the schedule is far kinder this year; there’s some optimism with a new offensive scheme along with a few minor upgrades to the receivers. It’s still a tall order to expect much from a rookie quarterback in this situation, but at least the schedule shouldn’t be the biggest challenge Wilson will have kicking off his NFL career.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – The offense changes with HC Arthur Smith importing his scheme from the Titans and there is some concern that Ryan may have peaked physically as a passer. But he’s gifted potentially the best tight end ever drafted and a schedule that improves markedly from 2020. 

Worst Swings

Justin Herbert (LAC) – The rookie shattered all expectations when he finished as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback with 15 games played. He benefitted by going against what was the No. 2 fantasy schedule. He’s saddled with the worst swing from 2020 but the schedule is still only No. 23 and he’s shown remarkable progress in reading NFL defenses.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – The Browns are already in a bad division for passing and already went against the No. 24 schedule last year when they ranked low in passes (29) and passing yardage (26). They end up with the worst schedule for passing in 2021 but they will run the ball more anyway. Baker has a few nice weapons, but the need is low and the schedule works against them even more this year.

Tom Brady (TB) – He moved to Tampa Bay at a fortuitous time, leaving the Pats No. 31-ranked pass schedule for the Buccaneers’ No. 8, along with a massive upgrade in pass targets. It’s always tougher the next year after winning a Super Bowl and the schedule is not working in his favor this year. But – he is Brady and still throws to a dizzying set of pass targets.

Jared Goff (DET) – The Rams fell out of love with their former first-round pick and shipped him off to the Lions in exchange for Matt Stafford. Goff wasn’t there last year but it is just as well since everything is new in Detroit anyway and the receiving corps have been completely made over (and, perhaps, not in a positive way). He’ll have to figure out the new offense using a downgraded set of receivers and battle a schedule that is also not working in his favor.

2021 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Rushing

Who has the easiest schedule for rushing?

The strength of schedule for running backs only considers rushing yardage and scores. There is a significant difference between how often teams use them as receivers, and that impacts the stats allowed by a defense. For a simpler and more 1:1 consideration, this is the strength of schedule for only  rushing production that was allowed by defenses including each home or away venue.

The extra game in the NFL schedule starting this year won’t help running backs to stay healthy as well.

See also:
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Passing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Rushing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Receiving

Total Points

For fantasy contests and such, only total points matter, so below are the total points for each rushing offense derived from their schedule against the average rushing fantasy points allowed in 2020 by those defenses.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. The middle 20 matchups were neither good nor bad.

Notable schedules

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The backfield situation could change from game to game, but whichever back takes the lead will enjoy the most favorable schedule in the NFL. Aside from two midseason games, the entire lineup of opponents is light, and four of the final five matchups go against weaker defenses from 2020.

Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown (MIA) – The Dolphins matchup with the AFC South helps to give the otherwise mediocre backfield a chance to surprise if they don’t add another back and start rotating players. The final nine games only contain one tough venue, and there’s nary a bad weather game possible.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The hottest rookie running back takes a further step in the lead with a schedule that can reward a full-time rusher. He gets a fast start with no bad matchups until Week 8 and then three of the final four games face weak defenses right when you need him most.

David Montgomery (CHI) – Hopefully, the spike in production that ended 2020 picks up again this season while enjoying one of the lighter schedules for rushers. Montgomery faces a mixed set of games through midseason but then faces his final tough venue in Week 9. The Bears fortunes should increase in the second half of the year and the passing offense will be hitting a higher gear by then as well.

James Robinson, Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule is kind aside from a three-game stretch from Week 11 to Week 13. And then the final four games all face favorable matchups during the fantasy playoffs. The split in workload between James Robinson and Travis Etienne may evolve through the season, but the primary back for December should end the season on a high note.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Second-year running back Jonathan Taylor already broke out in 2020 with over 1,100 rushing yards, and he gets a chance to take another step up, facing seven opponents with weaker defenses. The first seven weeks are tough with four bad matchups but then clears up with only one more in the final  nine games while playing in five weak venues. A Week 14 bye will hurt in larger leagues and contests, but hosting the Raiders in Week 17 should end the fantasy year with a bang.

Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette (TB) – There’s already a committee backfield that shifts roles, and now the Super Bowl champion’s path to a repeat navigates the worst rushing schedule of any team. They only play in two of the lighter venues from last year while over half of their matchups go against  the toughest rush defenses. Starting in October, they face a twelve-game stretch without any weak defenses.

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon (GB) – The quarterback situation will be resolved, but the rushing schedule never improves for the Packers in 2021. After a mostly challenging stretch through midseason, Aaron Jones not only has a Week 13 bye, but the last six weeks of the season produces only one favorable matchup and yet four of the toughest venues for rushers.

2021 weekly grid

 

Average rushing fantasy points allowed (points per game)

Fantasy values were derived from 1 point per 10 rushing yards and six-point rushing touchdowns.

2021 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Passing

2020 fantasy strength of schedule for Passing

Over the 25 years since The Huddle originated fantasy football strength of schedule, we’ve tweaked the formulas for better accuracy. This considers only passing yardage and scores, not quarterback rushing. That evens the field for all players since they all throw the ball as their primary job.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defenses” depending on where the game is played.

See also:
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Passing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Rushing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Receiving

The addition of a Week 18 bumps up the numbers from past years. The review now considers a full fantasy season as Week 1 through Week 17 and ignores the new final week. The scoring was a point for each 20 passing yards and four -point touchdowns.

The average passing fantasy points allowed per game is at the bottom of this page for reference.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2020 by those defenses.

Oddly, the Top-6 teams in total points all will feature a different quarterback this year. That makes it tougher to rely on since the offense will already face a challenge to integrate a new passer.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. The middle 20 matchups were neither good nor bad.

Notable schedules

Someone in Houston – If, somehow, Deshaun Watson plays this year without distraction (yeah, I know), he has the lightest schedule of them all. Failing that, very likely, Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills are unlikely to optimize the opportunity.

Carson Wentz (IND) – The Colts are onto yet another quarterback while Wentz attempts to recharge his career against a schedule containing eight opponents that sported the softest secondaries last year. The rest of the offense is unchanged from 2020, so Wentz must fit into an existing scheme with experienced receivers. His schedule improves mostly in the second half of the season.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – This should be a favorable fantasy situation for Ryan. He’s learning a new scheme under HC Arthur Smith, but he has an outstanding crew of receivers, including the much-hyped rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. Better yet, there appears to be no reason to expect the rushing effort to account for much again this year. Ending the season versus the Panthers, 49ers, Lions and Bills will force the need to throw the ball.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – Rookie quarterbacks rarely produce fantasy-relevant stats, much less someone playing for the Jets. But at least the reason to throw should be significant, and Wilson gets to start going against one of the least challenging passing schedules. Wilson does play in four home games during the final five weeks of the fantasy season.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the bottom five in passing yards last year and that may not change. The Lions in Week 11 provides the only matchup with a soft secondary from last year. The AFC North is brutal by itself and the Browns add matchups against the AFC West and NFC North. Their backfield already ranked Top-5 in all rushing categories and ended up with one of the lightest rushing schedules. The schedule suggests even less passing with even worse results.

Russell Wilson (SEA) – The Seahawk’s star faces a tougher road in 2021 versus a very challenging stretch of games after the first month of the season. Limiting the offense to mostly DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is tough enough versus NFC West defenses. He’s been better at Seattle than away, and yet he’ll play in nine road games and only seven home games during the fantasy season.

 Jared Goff (DET) – The ex-Ram seeks to continue his NFL career as a Lion during their Year 1 rebuild where the roster has undergone an almost total change from 2020. It didn’t add any talent better than they lost and he starts out against the 49ers, Packers, Ravens, Bears and Vikings. Nothing in Detroit appears to be an upgrade from what he left in Los Angeles, including the schedule.

2021 weekly grid

Best and worst fantasy points allowed per game to passers