Category: NBA Odds

James Harden said he ‘wasn’t right’ last season, and that’s music to the ears of Sixers bettors

There’s still hope for “old” Harden.

The Philadelphia 76ers are fringe NBA title contenders. They probably aren’t in the same tier as teams that recently competed in the finals like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, but they aren’t more than a tier removed from those teams either.

The Sixers have +1300 odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the 2023 title, eighth-shortest in the NBA and fourth-shortest in the East. Whether they can maximize their talent to become the last team standing largely falls on the shoulders of James Harden.

Harden has been extremely busy this offseason working to silence critics after a lackluster close to last season. He opted out of a contract that would’ve paid him roughly $47 million next season knowing he likely wouldn’t receive as much in a new deal, but it allowed Philadelphia to add some depth pieces. That was one way he showed his commitment to winning.

He’s also posted the obligatory workout videos, including one of him getting reps in the gym alongside assistant coach Sam Cassell and promising young guard Tyrese Maxey. But the most encouraging thing Harden did this offseason for anyone tempted to bet on Philly’s title odds is admit he wasn’t himself last season.

“I don’t really listen to what people are saying. I wasn’t right last season and I still almost averaged a triple-double,” Harden said in an interview with Yahoo Sports. “If anybody else had those numbers, we’d be talking about them getting the max. People were used to seeing me averaging 40, 30 points, and so they viewed it as a down year. I was in Philadelphia for a couple of months and I had to learn on the fly. That’s just what it was. I’m in a good space physically and mentally right now, and I’m just looking forward to next season.”

He told AP Sports he’s finally back to his old self.

“I wasn’t able to get in my spots and get to where I needed to get to without thinking about it, so that right there slowed my confidence down,” he said. “It was craziness, but I’m finally back. I’ll be a lot more aggressive scoring-wise just because my body allows me to.”

While there was some defensiveness in Harden’s tone, he’s right about nearly averaging a triple-double. He put up 21.0 points, 10.5 assists and 7.1 rebounds in the time after the Sixers acquired him. However, those numbers dipped to 18.6 points, 8.6 assists and 5.7 rebounds in the playoffs. More concerning, he was just a 40% shooter from the field in the regular season and playoffs combined.

Harden’s admittance that he “wasn’t right” gives bettors optimism that there’s room for improvement, rather than having to accept his postseason as representative of who he is now. Last year was abnormal for him after all, considering the tumultuous situation in Brooklyn and the hamstring injury that put him on the shelf for a while.

Even if Harden is done as an MVP-level performer, it’s possible his new normal is somewhere closer to the middle of the Houston Harden and how he performed last season — which is still an All-Star player. That’s important to know for people who are bullish on the Sixers. Because as good as Joel Embiid is, he can’t push this team to a title alone.

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Chet Holmgren’s Rookie of the Year odds moved up after an incredible NBA Summer League debut

One game is all it took.

After just one NBA Summer League game, albeit a very impressive one, Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren’s odds to win Rookie of the Year have moved.

The No. 2 overall pick absolutely dominated in his almost-NBA debut, scoring 23 points on 7-of-9 shooting, including 4-of-6 from three, to go with seven rebounds, four assists and a summer league-record six blocks. Apparently that was all people needed to see.

Holmgren’s already consensus top-three odds strengthened at a few sportsbooks, and at least one other book now has him as the betting favorite. The 7-footer jumped from +500 to +360 at FanDuel, according to Action Network, leaping top overall draft pick Paolo Banchero.

His odds held steady at +400 and third-shortest at Tipico Sportsbook, as they were after the draft, trailing Banchero at +300 and No. 3 pick Jabari Smith at +350. But other places saw more movement. Holmgren moved from +500 to +400 at BetRivers and +400 to +350 at Caesars.

Banchero is expected to make his summer league debut with the Magic on Thursday against Smith and the Rockets. No. 4 pick Jaden Ivey and No. 5 Keegan Murray — who has also shined in early action — have the next best odds.

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James Harden trade instantly boosts Philadelphia’s 2022 title odds as the Nets’ odds get longer

A look at updated NBA title odds after the Philadelphia 76ers swapped Ben Simmons for the Brooklyn Nets’ James Harden

Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said he wouldn’t move disgruntled guard Ben Simmons for anything less than top dollar.

Well, the former Rockets general manager certainly got that on Thursday just hours before the NBA trade deadline—and he reunited with his last superstar in the process.

The Sixers shipped Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks to Brooklyn for James Harden and Paul Millsap early Thursday afternoon, a bombshell deal that will reverberate across the league.

In fact, it already has.

At Tipico Sportsbook, NBA title futures have already seen massive line movement. Here’s a look at how oddsmakers are processing the blockbuster trade:

Feb. 9 NBA Championship Outrights 

Philadelphia 76ers: +1200

Brooklyn Nets: +425

Feb. 10 NBA Championship Outrights 

Philadelphia 76ers: +700

Brooklyn Nets: +450

The deal will also impact the MVP candidacy of Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, who is the current favorite at +200. Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant lags behind at +3000, but the trade could free up Durant on offense and defense to improve his chances.

Feb. 10 NBA MVP odds:

Embiid: no change +200

Durant: no change +3000

Harden: moved from +10000 to +6000

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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Bettor Ideas: We tried the ‘Max Under’ strategy so you don’t have to

97 bets over two nights gave us wild results and a dizzying viewing experience.

Welcome to Bettor Ideas, the laboratory where BetFTW tests out new, innovative or downright puzzling strategies to get rich gambling on sports. Have a betting scheme you want us to try? Tweet your ideas to @Bet_ForTheWin or email us at AskBetFTW@gmail.com. 

Today we’re taking a deep dive into the Max Under theory. In the most simple terms, the strategy calls for taking all available alternate line under props and creating a single game parlay for each NBA player. And we mean each and every player. This is not a strategy where you pick and choose which players you want to bet. If you’re deploying the Max Under, you take every player you can.

The vast majority—if not all—of these bets will fail, miserably, which is why Max Unders call for reducing your typical units to a fraction of what you’d normally wager. The goal is to hit on one, maybe two, and more than cover your losses.

BetFTW tested this theory out on two different nights in mid-January and included results below. Here’s how it worked out and everything else you need to know about playing Max Unders.

On Site: Betting on the Suns to demolish Dallas

The Suns are looking for their fifth straight win against their Western Conference foe

Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic stops by On Site to set up Thursday’s matchup between the Phoenix Suns (-2.5) and Dallas Mavericks in Texas.

The Suns are riding a four-game winning streak and have won their last five contests against the Mavs.

All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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NBA spread outlook: The Grizzlies are streaking. Who can trip them up?

The only thing more impressive than the Grizzles’ winning streak is their run against the spread

No NBA team is hotter than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. Amid an impressive 11-game winning streak—featuring victories over heavyweights like the Suns, Nets, and Warriors—Memphis is doing it all. Ja Morant looks like the NBA’s next great superstar while a third-ranked offense (112.3 points per game) is humming along, unimpeded.

Morant knows his team has got something special cooking.

However, an old adage remains true: Good teams win, but great teams cover. And that’s a test a young Memphis team has also passed with flying colors of late.

In addition to that glowing winning streak, the Grizzlies have covered the spread in eight straight games against the Spurs, Nets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, and Timberwolves. It’s actually been so long that Memphis has not failed to cover a spread since last year (get it?).

What’s been particularly eye-opening is how few and far between the close calls have been. Save for a narrow 110-106 road win over the Cavaliers where they just barely covered a +3.5 spread; the Grizzlies have paced themselves so far ahead of everyone else. Even big underdog bets like +6.5 on the road against Brooklyn simply haven’t mattered.

But, as they tend to do, all good things must eventually end. There will come a time in the coming days where the Grizzlies, as good as they are, do fail to cover the spread. Morant might have an off night. An opposing sixth man might go nuclear. It happens, especially in a night-to-night league like the NBA. And while the Grizzlies will still undoubtedly be a good team, we might have to, at least temporarily, revoke that coveted “great” label.

Such is the nature of the sports betting beast.

The main reason the Grizzlies’ exceptional eight-game cover streak might soon come to an end? A daunting upcoming schedule. It starts tonight at home against Luka Doncic’s Mavericks (-2.5 at Tipico.)

At 22-19, Dallas has been far from what anyone would call a juggernaut this season. But the Mavs are always dangerous as long as they have a talent like Doncic at the helm. With more of a mediocre defense compared to their high-powered offense, it’s quite possible the creative Doncic alone drives a dagger into the Grizzlies’ streak.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier after Doncic and company leave Memphis because the East-leading Bulls come to town on Monday. Guards DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine are playing like sure All-Stars, if not potential starters in the All-Star Game. Factor in an otherwise deep lineup centering around big man Nikola Vucevic, point guard Lonzo Ball, and microwave scorer Coby White, and Memphis should have its hands full there, too.

Two days later, on Wednesday, the Grizzlies go to Milwaukee to play the defending NBA champion Bucks. Now, there are litmus tests and benchmarks to surpass, and then there’s covering a spread against the last team to win the final game of the entire season. Call it a hunch, but one has to think reigning Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will want to send a message in what could certainly prove to be a Finals preview when all is said and done.

Ja Morant’s Grizzlies have arrived, and then some. If they can somehow continue to cover the spread against one of the league’s best players and two Eastern Conference heavyweights, then they deserve even more shine.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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On Site: Bulls and Nets battle for first in the Eastern Conference

Setting up Wednesday’s tilt between the Nets and Bulls in Chicago

USA Today‘s Jeff Zillgitt joins On Site to set up Wednesday’s marquee NBA matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls (-2.5) are playing their second game in as many nights after throttling the Detroit Pistons, 133-87 on Tuesday at the United Center.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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NBA slot machine: Will Joel Embiid keep his 30-points streak going against the Spurs?

The Sixers center has scored at least 30 points in five straight games.

You’ve heard of slot machines, the casino staple that allows players to pull a lever or push a button for a random assortment of usually three symbols that sometimes combine for a prize. This is the sports betting version of that, three random bets that may hit on their own but can also be combined for a larger parlay prize. These picks are my favorite from across the day’s slate of games, chosen based on a combination of likelihood and value of odds. Good luck.

Odds are provided via Tipico

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Best bets for 76ers-Nets as Kevin Durant makes his return

Kevin Durant is expected to return for the first time since these teams last met.

The Brooklyn Nets host the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday in what is expected to be Kevin Durant’s first game since these teams met two weeks ago. 

Like several of his teammates, Durant had been placed in COVID-19 protocols. James Harden made his return shortly after and held the fort down quite nicely, averaging 38 points, 9 rebounds and 13 assists in wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers. 

It’s with that momentum – and the addition of Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge – that Brooklyn enters Thursday’s game. The Nets are favored by 4.5 points on Tipico Sportsbook and they’re a good bet to cover at -120 odds. 

When these teams met in October, the Nets beat the Sixers by five. In Durant’s last game, the Nets beat the Sixers by nine and that was without Harden. Not only is Harden back for this matchup, but he’s playing at an MVP-caliber level. He’ll be able to offset whatever extra the Sixers get from Tobias Harris, who had his worst shooting game of the season that night.

There’s also likely to be regression from Seth Curry, who scored 13 points more than his season scoring average. And Durant, who scored 34 that game, will offset what the Sixers get from center Joel Embiid, who had 32. If the game comes down to supporting casts, Brooklyn’s has simply been more dependable – Philly’s bench has been thoroughly outscored through two games. 

Look for this game to go over on a total set at 221.5 points, as well. While Brooklyn’s defense adjusts to players working their way back into the lineup, there may be some defensive lapses that allow for more buckets than usual and forces the Nets to respond on the other end. However, there shouldn’t be too much of an adjustment period for a top-10 Nets offense, or a player with the abilities of Durant.

Three of Brooklyn’s last five games have easily topped this number and the two that didn’t were played without either Durant or Harden. Philadelphia’s recent games have not gone as high, but they were mostly against teams just as depleted as Brooklyn had been, only less talented. The first two meetings between these teams hovered around this line, with the first going over at 223 and the second under at 219. I think this game has the potential to go higher than both.

Best bets: Nets -4.5 (-120), Over 221.5 (-115)

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A very merry Christmas parlay involving NBA, NFL and CFB action

Even on Christmas, there’s money to be made.

By now, your travel plans are finalized, gifts are under the tree, dinner is marinating and Christmas music – good or not – has been blaring for several days now. The only thing missing to make this holiday season complete is the perfect parlay for the Christmas Day slate of games.

The NBA has always been the main sports attraction on the Christmas holiday and that remains the case despite a wave of COVID-19 outbreaks that threatened to change the look of its five-game slate. And for the second year in a row, the NFL will also be featured on Christmas – this time with two games chock full o’playoff implications to satisfy your cravings.

Then, there’s some college action, which includes the Camellia Bowl, returning for its eighth inaugural game and second consecutive on Christmas Day. Typically played between teams from the Mid-American Conference and Sun Belt, this year’s game features Georgia State against Ball State. There’s also a four-game slate of college hoops for the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic, but I’ll leave those for another expert to pick.

So, without further ado, here’s the best combination of picks from the NBA, NFL and CFB schedule to create a very Merry Christmas parlay.