Category: Mountain West Football

Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win

CSU has chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. Can the Rams beat the Falcons to move a step closer?

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Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win

The Rams have a chance to move closer to bowl eligibility

Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

Can the Rams beat a rival?

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons (7-2, 4-1 Mountain West) vs Colorado State Rams (4-5, 3-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16th — 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM PT

WHERE: Canvas Stadium; Fort Collins, Colorado (41,000)

TV: ESPN2

RADIO: Air Force | Colorado State

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 58th matchup between the two teams. Air Force currently leads the series 35-21-1

WEBSITES: GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website | CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -10

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 14.1 (79% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.2

The Colorado State Rams have a chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. This week, the Air Force Falcons and their option offense are standing in their way.

After games where the Rams let the Falcons score 40+ points, last season CSU kept the game close, losing 27-19. This season the Rams are riding high on a resurgent defense in conference play. Here’s how CSU can beat the Falcons.

Three Keys to a Colorado State Victory

1. Contain the fullback dive.

The Rams have had the fullback dive drilled into their heads over the past two weeks. “Every day. Every time I walk in the building,” defensive tackle Ellison Hubbard told CSURams.com. “We’re going to hear fullback dive, dive, just dive, dive, dive. We’re going to hear it.”

CSU gave up 260 yards and a touchdown to Cole Fagan last year. Fagan is no longer with the team, but the fullback still plays a big role in the offense with two of the Falcons top three rushers being fullbacks. The Rams need to limit the damage down from the Falcons fullback if they want to win.

2. The defense needs to stay with their assignments.

The Air Force Falcons are an extremely disciplined football team; which comes as a result of their daily military training. They know their assignments and they know how to execute to make a team pay for their mistakes.

If the Rams are to walk away with a victory, they cannot freelance anything. If the CSU defense tries to get cute, the Falcons will break open a big, chunk yards play. The Rams will need to play smash mouth, keep on assignment football to beat the Falcons.

3. Get the running game going.

The Air Force Falcons defense against the run ranks ninth in the country, allowing only 96.8 yards per game. The Rams rushing attack is currently averaging 156.6 yards per game. Something has to give on Saturday and the Rams are hoping it everything falls their way.

Colorado State’s leading rusher, Marvin Kinsey, was suspended and eventually let go from the team. However, the Rams rushing attacked hasn’t faltered at all with Marcus McElroy being the one to step up and take on the roll of a bell cow. McElroy will need to play a big role if the Rams are to win.

Prediction

This game is always a toss-up as to who wins. Yes, Air Force has won more often than not. But the results have varied widely from blowouts by both sides to three-point victories by both sides. The Rams have the ability and talent to match up well against Air Force, it’s just a matter of execution. Expect the Rams to be on after the bye week and win a close game.

CSU 38, Air Force 35

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Game Preview, Kick Time, Livestream, Odds, Prediction

The Aztecs are home to get back the Old Oil Can.

Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Game Preview, Kick Time, Livestream, Odds, Prediction

Getting to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game means nipping their losing skid in the bud.

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– Contact/Follow @ErwinSports and @MWCwire.

The Aztecs are home to get back the Old Oil Can.

Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 MW) vs San Diego State Aztecs (7-2, 4-2 MW)

WHEN: Friday, November 14 – 6:30 p.m. PST  |  9:30 p.m. EST
WHERE: SDCCU Stadium (54,000) – San Diego, CA
TV: ESPN2
RADIO:101.5 KGB / XTRA 1360 / FoxSports Inland Empire (IE) 1350
SERIES RECORD: Aztecs lead the overall series 29-25-4, The Aztecs have lost the last two matchups.
SPREAD: San Diego State -1

San Diego State and Fresno State have either represented the West Division in the Mountain West Championship game since the start in 2013. This game would likely determine who faces off against Boise State in a few weeks.

Despite being bowl-eligible, the team is showing signs of regressions. Ryan Agnew looks shook. The confidence he carried throughout the first half of the season feels distant. Agnew looks confused in the pocket and panicked once he rolls out.

Rocky Long pointed out earlier this week that the offensive line is inconsistent, and allowing too much pressure to come at Ryan Agnew. The Fresno State defensive line might take advantage of the mismatch and it might come down to Ryan Agnew’s mobility– something that is lacking through these last few games.

Fresno State is still playing at a high level. They’re 30th in the entire FBS in points scored. Quarterback Jorge Reyna has a season stat line of 178-for-278, 2,092 yards, 11 TD/6 INT passing and 262 yards, 2 TD rushing. Reyna isn’t one of the Carr brothers reincarnated, but he’s a Jordan Love-type quarterback that could fluster San Diego State.

San Diego State has been exposed in their losses. Despite being 6th in the nation in giving up 130 first downs through 9 games, the Aztecs are giving up 79 first downs through the air. They look fraudulent in the secondary and one can imagine Fresno State taking advantage of this matchup all day. The Aztecs’ best chance at winning is through Kyahva Tezino and that front seven.

Prediction

Clearly, the more desperate San Diego State Aztecs have the pre-game edge. Rocky Long saw that there needs to be more attention to detail and discipline and hopefully drilled that into their minds for tonight’s game. I can see the Aztecs offense struggling with the run again. Fresno State’s defensive line is beefier than Nevada’s, and putting together a cohesive o-line unit isn’t going to fix itself in 6 days. This is the defense’s game to win, but it’s going to be close and I don’t expect an Aztec score in the 4th quarter.

San Diego State 21, Fresno St 17

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New Mexico vs. Boise State: Can The Lobos Pull Of An Upset?

New Mexico won back on the blue turf in 2015 can they do it in 2019?

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New Mexico vs. Boise State: Can The Lobos Pull Of An Upset?

Is a blue turf victory possible?

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

New Mexico has a tough challenge this week.

WEEK 12: New Mexico Lobos (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West) vs. #22 Boise State Broncos (8-1, 5-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 8:15 PM MT/7:15 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, Idaho (36,387)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: Lobo Radio Netwok 770 AM (KKOB) Bronco Sports Network including flagships 670 AM (KBOI) and 93.1 FM (KTIK) in Boise

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the series 9-1. In the last meeting on November 16, 2018, the Broncos defeated the Lobos, 45-14, in Albuquerque.

LAST WEEK: Boise State needed overtime to beat Wyoming at home, 20-17, while New Mexico was on a bye after losing on the road at Nevada.

WEBSITES: GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website  BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website

 GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | New Mexico

ODDS (via Odds Shark): Boise State -27.5

SP+ PROJECTION:  Boise State by 27.1 (94% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION:  Boise State by 34.5

Well the UNM Lobos make the trip to Boise Idaho to battle the Broncos on the blue turf this Saturday in a classic David & Goliath matchup. 

The No. 19 Broncos (8-1, 5-0 MWC) are the only team in the Mountain West Conference that has yet to lose a conference game. The Lobos (2-7, 0-5 MWC), meanwhile, are looking for their first conference win of the season.

Boise State is also in control of the first place in the MWC Moutain with a perfect 5-0 conference record and only three games left in the regular season. 

The Broncos are perfect at home on the blue turf sporting a 5-0 record and climbed two posts to #19 this week AP’s top 25 rankings. 

With the Lobos, its been a season filled with a heck of a lot of things that have happened at very bad times. From Bob Davie’s medical incident at the first game of the year in the locker room, the roller coaster of what quarterbacks would start each game, the suspension of quarterback Sherion Jones and then last week’s passing of defensive tackle Nahje Flowers.  

There is no doubt to anyone who knows about this situation, this will be a very emotional game for Davie’s Lobos. 

This is one of those games with a point spread of 28-30 points in favor of Bryan Harsin’s Broncos. At coach Harsin’s weekly press conference he noted that the Broncos would not take their opponent’s for granted and mentioned that the Lobos “do a lot of things really well”

“They’re team speed is one of the best that we play every single year,” he said. “We’ve been in some shootouts with New Mexico. Their record doesn’t necessarily show that but record doesn’t matter right now, not to us.”

So, what do the Lobos have to do to beat Boise State

1)  Win the war mentally before you arrive to actually play the game. 

Most teams that have had a season like the Lobos, the emotional ups and downs create a fragile team in the sense of a belief they can win a big game against a big opponent. 

Teams that have had this kind of adversity have to be so careful as things can get out of hand against big opponents very fast especially on the road against in a hostile environment. 

The Lobos must win every down mentally believing they can win this game. This is where each player must just take care of his position and his responsibility from a coaching perspective. 

If you watch games where the team favored to win at these big odds, they already believe they can whoop you on the football field. 

How about Davies Lobos upset of the Broncos back in 2015 by a score of 31-24 when playing on the blue turf that year the Lobos were a 31-point underdog.

Play that tape the night before the game, create a visual for the players that this has been done just four years ago. What can it hurt? This is where leadership from the head coach down to the leaders on the team must do all they can to get the team to play the game of their lives. 

All upsets in college football are won, one down at a time and players start seeing we can play with this team and you keep playing and the confidence increases as the team continues to play and make plays. 

2)  Explosive plays by the Lobo offense to score points. 

This Lobo team does not lack the talent to play with just about anybody in the Mountain West conference, they have a solid quarterback, very good running backs and some very athletic receivers who can make plays. 

New Mexico must get four quarters of leadership out of Quarterback Tevaka Tuitoi as far as him not overthrowing open receivers, and just playing smart football. 

Running the read or zone option correctly when the tackle crashes and the quarterbacks keeps the ball for long gains, move the chains.  Just smart option football. There is a reason most teams have some variation of the option because it works when run properly. 

The Lobos have some real offensive threats to any defense in this offense as running backs Ahamri Davis, Bryce Carroll and receivers Jordan Kress and Marcus Williams. 

For some reason or another, we have not seen a complete game where each has been made explosives plays to help the Lobos score touchdowns. 

The Lobos came up short against the Nevada Wolf Pack two weeks ago, falling 21-10. RB Ahmari Davis put forth a good effort for the losing side as he rushed for 80 yards and one TD on 15 carries.

3)  Defense needs to keep this game from getting out of hand. 

Defensive Coordinator Jordan Peterson started the season with a ton of JC Players in the secondary and has had his hands full at getting them all on the same page along with injuries. 

These injuries have forced the Lobos to uses younger players still learning a 3-3-5 systems and has given up huge chunks of yards in the passing game. 

Linebackers Alex Hart, Mo Vainikolo and Jacobi Hearn, who have combined for 27.5 tackles for loss and all have had outstanding seasons helping the Lobos stop opponents running the ball. The New Mexico Lobos defense has allowed 35.78 points per game and must play lights out against a very physical Bronco team. 

The secondary must not give big plays up, on the contrary, they must make plays.  An interception or takeaway. Do anything to create momentum for your team. 

Coach Bryan Harsin teams tend to be very physical and you had better get ready for the physicality if you are going to have any hopes of pulling the upsets. 

His teams remind me very much of a Rocky Long’s team in that they play smart, tough and physical football. 

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Hawaii vs. UNLV: Three Keys To A Rebels Win

The Rebels host the Warriors in the Ninth Island Showdown. Here’s our preview of how UNLV can earn the victory.

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Hawaii vs. UNLV: Three Keys to a Rebels Win

The Rebels host the Warriors in the Ninth Island Showdown. Here’s our preview of how UNLV can earn the victory.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

How can the Rebels earn a rivalry win?

WEEK 12: Hawaii Warriors (6-4, 3-3 Mountain West) vs. UNLV Rebels (2-7, 0-5 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 1:00 PM PT/11:00 AM HT

WHERE: Sam Boyd Stadium; Las Vegas, Nevada (35,500)

TV: The game will be available on Spectrum PPV in Hawaii only.

STREAMING: Mainland viewers can find the game on Facebook. Additionally, Hawaii’s radio broadcast can be streamed via ESPN Honolulu and UNLV’s broadcast can be found on TuneIn.

RADIO: The UNLV broadcast can be found in and around Las Vegas on 1100 AM and 100.9 FM.

SERIES RECORD: Hawaii leads the series 16-12. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Warriors defeated the Rebels, 35-28, in Honolulu.

LAST WEEK: UNLV was on a bye after losing at Colorado State the week before, while Hawaii outlasted San Jose State at home, 42-40.

WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | UNLV

ODDS (via OddsShark): Hawaii -7

SP+ PROJECTION: Hawaii by 11.5 (75% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Hawaii by 10.1

In their quest to break a three-game losing streak, the UNLV Rebels will have their hands full on Saturday afternoon against the Hawaii Warriors, in the latest iteration of the Ninth Island Showdown.

Nick Rolovich’s run-and-shoot didn’t seem to miss a beat even with a change at quarterback last week, but the Rebels should have plenty of opportunities themselves to light up the scoreboard against a suspect Warriors defense. Here’s how UNLV can score an upset over Hawaii.

Three Keys to a UNLV Victory

1. Use the ground game to play “keep away”.

Neither team has been especially good at defending the run of late, evidenced by the fact that Hawaii and UNLV have given up 5.71 and 6.16 yards per carry, respectively, in Mountain West play. Hawaii, however, has averaged 6.01 YPC on offense in conference action while UNLV has sputtered with just 3.16 YPC, so turning that around will be paramount.

Charles Williams will get his touches one way or another, but Chad Magyar’s reemergence could be huge. Since breaking out against Vanderbilt a month ago, the sophomore running back has seen just ten, three, and five carries in the Rebels’ last three games, but finding a way to make him successful, keeping the Hawaii offense off the field, could be the path to an upset.

2. If necessary, gamble to stay on the field.

One thing that both UNLV and Hawaii have in common is that neither team is shy about setting their punt unit aside to keep the offense on the field. The Warriors and Rebels are the Mountain West’s two most aggressive teams on fourth down and while it’s worked out more often than not for UNLV, converting 15-of-29 such tries, it’s been a definitive strength for Hawaii since they are 15-of-24.

When it comes to sidelining the Hawaii offense, Tony Sanchez shouldn’t get gun shy if the right opportunity presents itself. If you see a punt on something like 4th-and-2 anywhere on Hawaii’s side of the field, something is going wrong for UNLV. Better to go out on your shield in a high-scoring affair.

3. Eliminate the drops.

At the end of October, Pro Football Focus put together a list of rankings of each FBS team’s wide receivers and the note for UNLV was particularly galling: The Rebels had dropped 22.8% of their catchable throws to that point, the fifth-worst figure in the country, and it’s hard to imagine the situation has since improved much.

Considering that Hawaii doesn’t have the same level of pass defense as prior foes like Wyoming, Boise State or San Diego State, it looks like an opportunity for Kenyon Oblad to match Chevan Cordeiro on the stat sheet but he’ll need more help from his receivers to do so.

Prediction

One thing seems certain: If you get a chance, take the over. Neither defense seems likely to offer much resistance, but it’s difficult to imagine that UNLV could match the Warriors touchdown for touchdown over a full sixty minutes. It might largely be a shootout between two rising quarterbacks, but I imagine Hawaii’s newfound prowess with running the football will make a difference late.

Hawaii 45, UNLV 35

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The Race To A New Year’s Six Bowl Game: AAC Games This Week Could Shake Things Up

Where do the AAC contenders fare along with Boise State in terms for the Cotton Bowl?

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The Race To A New Year’s Six Bowl Game: Big AAC Games This Week Could Shake Things Up

Boise State needs the AAC’s help to move up.

Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire

Games to watch.

The latest College Football Playoff polls are out and the order of the Group of Five teams did not change with only a two-team gap now between Boise State and the current leaders which are Cincinnati which is No. 17 and Memphis sitting at 18.

The two teams in between No. 21 Boise State are Texas and Iowa but that could easily change as Iowa takes on a top 10 Minnesota team and Texas goes to Iowa State and the Longhorns have not been extremely reliable each week despite a few good wins.

What to look for this week is a pair of AAC games, plus one non-conference title that could allow Boise State to make a move. The Broncos face New Mexico and a win is expected.

AAC Games To Watch

No. 23 Navy at No. 16 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. ET, TV: NBC (Irish -7.5)

This is a big game because if the Naval Academy can defeat Notre Dame then that will be the best win among any Group of Five team and push Navy up the rankings ahead of Boise State and in the cluster of Memphis and Cincinnati.

The only problem for the Middies is that they still need Memphis to lose to have a chance at the conference title in the AAC. Remember, a conference championship is required to earn the New Year’s Six spot from the Group of Five. Also, a Navy win keeps my dream chaos scenario alive of the Army vs. Navy game the week after championship Saturday to have meaning and delay the final College Football Playoff polls.

No. 18 Memphis at Houston, 3:30 p.m. ET, TV: ESPN2 (Tigers +10.5)

Don’t be fooled by the 3-6 Houston Cougars. They will at the very least put a scare into this Memphis team. The Cougars lost by only three points to SMU at home and hung sort of close with Cincy and lost by 15.

Being a road game makes it a bit tougher for Memphis, but their offense will probably be too much for Houston. Look for this game to crush the over which is set at 69.5 as the Tigers defense is not the type that will just shut down opponents.

No. 17 Cincinnati at South Florida, 7 p.m. ET, TV: CBS Sports Network (Cincinnati +14)

This is the least likely of an upset and the Bearcats should role into Raymond James Stadium and cruise to victory over the Bulls. The big games for Cincinnati come the following weeks when they take on both Temple and Memphis.

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Odds Of Winning Out

The importance of winning out and winning a conference title can not be understated, so we will use ESPN’s FPI for a closer look at the chances of teams going unscathed.

  • Boise State: 45.2 percent chance to win out, 74.5 percent to win its conference.
  • Appalachian State: 23.4 percent chance to win out, 33.5 percent to win its conference.
  • Cincinnati: 23.3 percent chance to win out, 63.7 percent to win its conference.
  • SMU: 14.4 percent chance to win out, eight percent to win its conference.
  • Memphis: 10.7 percent chance to win out, 16.6 percent to win its conference.
  • Navy: Two percent chance to win out, 10.2 percent to win its conference.

End Of Season Projected Rankings

Remember these rankings are not based on who is wherein a given week but rather where a one-loss team would fit in the pecking order. Since App State is back in the top 25 they need to be considered and reappear this week.

1. One-loss Cincinnati – This is pretty clear as the Bearcats are the highest-rated team and they play Memphis which would basically knock the Tigers out of consideration. However, a rematch with Memphis the following week would be interesting. (Next week we can look at wild scenarios)

Remaining Games: at USF, Temple, at Memphis

2. One-loss Memphis – In reality, Memphis and Cincinnati should be tied for the top spot. The Tigers play the Bearcats on the final week of the regular season and would then vault to the highest-rated Group of Five team. However, winning back-to-back games against one team is tough. Trust us, we went through that two seasons ago when Boise State and Fresno State played consecutively.

Remaining Games: at Houston, at USF, Cincinnati

3. One-loss Navy – Navy has the schedule with Notre Dame this week and wins there will put them in the conversation rankings-wise and maybe even make them the highest-ranked team in the Group of Five.

Even if they defeat Notre Dame, Navy has the problem of not even playing for its own conference title as Memphis owns the tie-breaker. Navy would need to have the Tigers lose to get back in the race.

Remaining Games: at Notre Dame, SMU, at Houston, Army

4. One-loss Boise State – The Broncos have the best odds to win out and win the Mountain West so that is a huge advantage compared to the other AAC teams. The only problem is the schedule does not allow for opportunities to move up on that merit alone. The Broncos need a two-loss AAC champ or a one-loss SMU champ who might be too far in the rankings to surpass Boise State, maybe.

All the Broncos can do is focus on winning and hope a team falters above them.

Remaining Games: New Mexico, at Utah State, at Colorado State

5. One-loss SMU – This one is interesting. The Mustangs dropped from the rankings and were essentially replaced with Appalachian State who defeated South Carolina. The Mustangs are a good team but its lack of defense caught up with them vs. Memphis.

SMU needs the Tigers to lose a game to move above them in the AAC standings, then SMU still has Navy to play in two weeks and it is on the road. That is a must-win game as well to stay atop of the AAC West.

The Mustangs late SOS could boost them ahead of Boise State and take the bid if both are league champs. SMU would play at least one ranked team down the stretch, maybe two if Navy upsets Notre Dame. If the Mustangs were to beat a top 20 Navy and Cincinnati teams would that be enough to jump them over a likely top 20 Boise State team?

Remaining Games: at Navy, Tulane

6. Two-loss Cincinnati – With the Bearcats having a cushy lead in its division they have a small margin of error. If they lose to Memphis but then turnaround and beat them in the AAC title game then there could be a scenario where they are the representative. The Bearcats more than likely would drop behind a one-loss Boise State heading into championship Saturday but what happens if they beat a top 15 Memphis team, would the committee jump them ahead of the Broncos?

7. One-loss Appalachian State – Beating South Carolina and re-entering the rankings is good and gives this team a shot. Unfortunately, they will need a lot of help with Boise State earning another loss and a two-loss AAC champ that is not Memphis or Cincinnati. Even a one-loss SMU champ likely would jump them and earn that Cotton Bowl bid.

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Week 12 Mountain West Football Power Rankings

Week 12 Mountain West Football Power Rankings For the first time all year the top two spots are unanimous Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire Boise State and Air Force are at the top The top two spots are non-negotiable this week and they both …

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Week 12 Mountain West Football Power Rankings

For the first time all year the top two spots are unanimous

Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire

Boise State and Air Force are at the top

The top two spots are non-negotiable this week and they both come from the same division. Boise State sits at the top with all of the first-place votes and then Air Force comes in next with all voters choosing those two teams as their first and second choice.

The Falcons moved up from three to two and the Broncos took the top spot all to themselves after defeating Wyoming and also San Diego State dropping a game to Nevada.

The Aztecs drop from two to the fourth spot with Wyoming moving up one spot to No. 3 despite losing in overtime to Boise State. The rest of the rankings see a mishmash of teams jumping up or down one spot.

Previous: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

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New Mexico vs. #21 Boise State: Three Keys To A Broncos Win

Boise State looks to remain perfect in Mountain West play against the Lobos. Here’s how they can tally another win.

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New Mexico vs. #21 Boise State: Three Keys To A Broncos Win

Boise State looks to remain perfect in Mountain West play against the Lobos. Here’s how they can tally another win.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

How can the Broncos take care of business as expected?

WEEK 12: New Mexico Lobos (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West) vs. #22 Boise State Broncos (8-1, 5-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16 — 8:15 PM MT/7:15 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, Idaho (36,387)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on the Bronco Sports Network, including flagships 670 AM (KBOI) and 93.1 FM (KTIK) in Boise, while the New Mexico broadcast can be found on 770 AM (KKOB).

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the series 9-1. In the last meeting on November 16, 2018, the Broncos defeated the Lobos, 45-14, in Albuquerque.

LAST WEEK: Boise State needed overtime to beat Wyoming at home, 20-17, while New Mexico was on a bye after losing on the road at Nevada.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | New Mexico

ODDS (via OddsShark): Boise State -27.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 27.1 (94% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 34.5

It wasn’t easy for the Boise State Broncos to stay on top in the Mountain division race, but after a hard fought win last Saturday night, they’ll look to run it back and do it again against the New Mexico Lobos.

Bob Davie’s team returns to the field for the first time since Nahje Flowers’s unfortunate passing and, while it hasn’t shown in the win column, have proven to be pesky over the last five or six weeks. Hank Bachmeier’s uncertain health proved to be a factor in Boise State’s escape last week, too, so there’s a chance the Lobos can hang around if the Broncos don’t come out sharp.

Here’s what Boise State can do to score a win over New Mexico.

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Put the clamps on Ahmari Davis.

Even though Boise State has been stout against the run this fall, there’s a decent chance the Lobos lean early and often since their passing offense is, charitably, pretty erratic. He’s had no more than 16 carries in each of UNM’s last three games, but he has seven runs of 20-plus yards this year (tied for third among Mountain West runners) and is the most significant reason why the Lobos rank in the top 40 by Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries that gain at least four yards).

He’s also been remarkably effective in short-yardage situations, as well, with 12 first downs on 18 third-down carries with three or fewer yards to go, so the Broncos will need to make shutting him down a priority.

2. Put the ball in Chase Cord’s hands early.

This key came up with regards to Hank Bachmeier’s slow starts in last week’s preview, but it might be worth getting aggressive with the pass even if Cord ends up making the start. The Lobos have struggled mightily in defending the pass, allowing Mountain West quarterbacks to complete 64.9% of their passes at 9.2 yards per attempt, and Cord has been remarkably effective early in games.

Small sample caveats apply, but he is 11-of-12 with 124 yards passing in three first quarters. Furthermore, first down has been Cord’s best down because he currently sports a 188.04 passer rating on 37 such attempts. Khalil Shakir and John Hightower look like they could be massive mismatches, so head coach Bryan Harsin might consider letting it fly and seeing what happens.

3. Don’t let the ground game scuffle.

Boise State never really got its running backs going against Wyoming last week and while New Mexico doesn’t have quite that caliber of defense, they’ve been solid in defending the run. The Lobos have allowed 3.9 YPC in conference play and that figure may be inflated by their subpar performance against Hawaii (take it out and that figure drops to 3.1).

It’ll be interesting to see how the Broncos offensive line handles the linebacker trio of Alex Hart, Mo Vainikolo and Jacobi Hearn, who have combined for 27.5 tackles for loss and are the primary reasons UNM rank right around the national average with a 19.1% Stuff Rate and in the top 50 by Power Success Rate (percentage of runs on 3rd or 4th down, two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down or touchdown). If the Lobos keep the Broncos from consistently reaching the second level on the ground, they could hang around a lot longer than you’d expect.

Prediction

Put simply, no one should expect the Lobos to seriously challenge Boise State, but a slow start from the Broncos could enable New Mexico to keep things close for a little while. In the end, though, the UNM offense is just too erratic to see them doing anything more than hitting on a couple of big plays, without ever closing the distance.

Boise State 35, New Mexico 20

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PODCAST: 2019 Week 12 Mountain West Football Preview

PODCAST: 2019 Week 12 Mountain West Football Preview Trophy week! Contact/Follow @MWCwire Teams are fighting for bowl eligibility Jeremy and Matt are back to preview the 12th week of Mountain West football in what we are dubbing “trophy week” as so …

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PODCAST: 2019 Week 12 Mountain West Football Preview

Trophy week!

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Teams are fighting for bowl eligibility

Jeremy and Matt are back to preview the 12th week of Mountain West football in what we are dubbing “trophy week” as so many games have a trophy on the line this weekend. Things get started with the Old Oil Can as Fresno State takes on San Diego State on a Friday night game. The Bulldogs need two wins to become bowl eligible and this a game that might be close than some think.
On Saturday the UNLV Rebels host the Hawaii Warriors for what we call the “Golden Pineapple” which is far superior compared to the “Ninth Island Showdown.” Wyoming and Utah State battle for Bridger’s rifle in what could be a defensive showdown, Colorado State is fighting for bowl eligibility vs. Air Force for the Ram-Falcon trophy. The final game of the day does not have a trophy on the line as Boise State takes on New Mexico.

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You can find the Mountain West Wire podcast below or subscribe to the show via Anchor, Stitcher Radio, TuneIn, iTunes, and more. Listen in, subscribe and rate it and let us know what you think!

Here is our list of complete sponsors.

Or just help us out directly through our Patreon page through this link.

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Nov. 13 Mountain West Basketball Picks, TV Schedule, Odds

Nov. 13 Mountain West Basketball Picks, TV Schedule, Odds A handful of hoops games on this Wednesday. Contact/Follow @MWCwire Get ready for a day of hoops. Cal State Fullerton at Wyoming, 9 p.m. ET, TV: Mountain West Network KenPom: Cowboys -1 Final …

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Nov. 13 Mountain West Basketball Picks, TV Schedule, Odds

A handful of hoops games on this Wednesday.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Get ready for a day of hoops.

Cal State Fullerton at Wyoming, 9 p.m. ET, TV: Mountain West Network

KenPom: Cowboys -1

Final Score: Fullerton 60, Wyoming 53

Jeremy: Wyoming

Josh F: Cal State Fullerton

Dmon: Wyoming

Larry: Wyoming

Jesse: Wyoming

Logan: Wyoming

Andrew: Cal State Fullerton

Eric: Cal State Fullerton

Green Bay at New Mexico, 9 p.m. ET, TV: Mountain West Network

KenPom: Lobos -12

Final Score: New Mexico 93, Green Bay 78

Jeremy: New Mexico

Josh F: New Mexico

Dmon: New Mexico

Larry: New Mexico

Jesse: New Mexico

Logan: New Mexico

Andrew: New Mexico

Eric: New Mexico

Omaha at Colorado State, 9 p.m. ET, TV: Mountain West Network

KenPom: Rams -3

Final Score: Colorado State 80, Omaha 65

Jeremy: Colorado State

Josh F: Colorado State

Dmon: Colorado State

Larry: Colorado State

Jesse: Colorado State

Logan: Omaha

Andrew: Colorado State

Eric: Colorado State

Grand Canyon at San Diego State, 10 P.M. ET, TV: Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/MWCWire/posts/767675593678764?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARBAtbebQrP4orPCBmKeDYajHwMCxG_W7GmDWAAaRgdm3De5NQTUj8LcjLYZLp97wB2NCTSU6-Gym9r2G_ToctoCh5Y4-_scUe8BXLMiAxteehoG0ngVSDbev9NMhKMw3uQ7jY0vJAf2j5XWFaTohajkMPo_oMUC0hvfT0XWTuUIPdWTqXLxzrIkxAgmYFHIngD9WEdGCZWByqHfgNYbFkDGYSie9213bT70Ydo-HWn9jZWWcu92GM3CivHEtAPf5GDhxCSlrOAP69vTWysWBLlQpQH75X9fk_lnd9Ehyd5UKlP8PyoLQwmy8e-5UAHwS6DcmEmeiFinN4DfeqjFWYyTqjUda_FEP_OxvyPAO5lZLS4FhgPU_nBxGoKlFumIiF0aVueKtq3e5b7muNK0DmzfkFqcfe7rNxGDdG1lUNbqsGZO2OBeNvhJGbEHqCfjQhNcRcR4BwKDUTjZC2Axq89dt-QTyKnAZCd3KLpYuR_7WKKhkY7RpmvPrPCaqVx-rYJfgQ&__tn__=-R

KenPom: Aztecs -8

Final Score: San Diego State 86, GCU 61

Jeremy: San Diego State

Josh F: San Diego State

Dmon: San Diego State

Larry: San Diego State

Jesse: San Diego State

Logan: SDSU

Andrew: San Diego State

Eric: San Diego State

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Still plenty to play for.

WEEK 12: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 MW) vs San Diego State Aztecs (7-2, 4-2 MW)

WHEN: Friday, November 15 — 6:30 PM PT/7:30 PM MT

WHERE: SDCCU Stadium; San Diego, California (54,000)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found on 940 AM, while the SDSU broadcast can be found on 101.5 FM (KGB) and XTRA 1360 AM.

SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the series 29-25-4. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Bulldogs defeated the Aztecs, 23-14, in Fresno.

LAST WEEK: Fresno State lost to Utah State at home, 37-35, while San Diego State lost at home to Nevada, 17-13.

WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | San Diego State

ODDS (via OddsShark): Fresno State -1

SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 2.9 (57% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: San Diego State by 1.3

The Fresno State Bulldogs have spent 2019 on an unpredictable path from week to week, but their chance to defend the Mountain West crown is still alive as they hit the road to face off with rival San Diego State.

The Old Oil Can isn’t the only thing on the line Friday, but this year’s matchup may be of a different vintage because it’s hard to imagine both teams being much more different. Rocky Long’s Aztecs have thrived on strong defense and special teams, holding opponents to the fewest points per drive since 2015 while Jeff Tedford’s offense, on that same basis, is scoring more points than any Bulldogs team since 2013.

Here’s how the Bulldogs can score a win over the Aztecs to stay in the hunt for the conference crown.

Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory

1. Try not to lose the field position game too early.

Even if the SDSU offense hasn’t always succeeded, there’s little doubt the defense has continually put them in a position to do so. The Aztecs rank fourth nationally with a 45.4% three-and-out rate and 12th in Stop Rate (percentage of drives ending with a punt, turnover, or turnover on down), and they’ve been especially good when opponents are pinned inside their 20-yard line in allowing 0.53 points per drive, which ranks seventh.

Getting at least one or two first downs in those situations could be crucial, then, since one thing these two teams have in common are that punters Blake Cusick and Brandon Heicklen have been very good this season. Fresno State and SDSU rank 15th and 31st, respectively, in net punting, so putting Cusick in a position to succeed — and putting the Aztecs in a position they have habitually struggled; they average 0.81 PPD when they are pinned inside the 20, 107th nationally — will make life easier for a depleted defense.

2. Have the better performance on the defensive line.

This one might be easier said than done. The Aztecs own a 6% sack rate that’s roughly similar to what they did in 2018, but they’ve been much more democratic about it this time around. Kyahva Tezino still has three sacks, but the defensive line trio of Keshawn Banks, Cameron Thomas and Myles Cheatum have combined for 12 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, a huge reason why San Diego State ranks second among FBS teams in Stuff Rate (plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage).

The fact that offensive tackle Syrus Tuitele and guard Quireo Woodley are dealing with nagging injuries may not help matters, either, but the good news is that the Aztecs offensive line has had its own adventures. Even without defensive end Isaiah Johnson, the latest injury casualty to be finished for the season, Mykal Walker and company should be able to step up and contain an offense that’s run the ball at its usual clip, 60%, without much success: SDSU’s 23.3% Stuff Rate on offense ranks 111th and their 3.35 YPC is down nearly two-and-a-half yards from two seasons ago.

3. Find a way to put the game in Ryan Agnew’s hands.

SDSU’s junior quarterback has been solid but he’s not what you’d call a true difference maker. He’s thrown the ball 26 times on average in the Aztecs’ seven wins, but that number jumps to 36 in their two losses with little difference in yards per attempt. Agnew is also still prone to the occasional poor decision and has struggled in more obvious passing situations, earning a first down on just 10-of-42 passes on third downs of seven or more yards. If the defense can create situations where he has to make a play, it may as well be a roll of the dice for the Aztecs but seems to favor the Bulldogs.

Prediction

The Aztecs have walked a fine line all season and you can make a reasonable case that they haven’t faced a strong and balanced offense like Fresno State all year long. There’s a lot of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness in this year’s clash, so while it’s hard to imagine a blowout on either side, it seems more likely the pedestrian SDSU offense will fail again to hold up its end of the bargain even against an iffy and banged up defense.

Fresno State 24, San Diego State 20

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