Category: Mountain West Football

Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To A Bulldogs Win

The Bulldogs and Aztecs will battle for the Old Oil Can and the driver’s seat in the West division race. Here’s how Fresno State can win.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Still plenty to play for.

WEEK 12: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 MW) vs San Diego State Aztecs (7-2, 4-2 MW)

WHEN: Friday, November 15 — 6:30 PM PT/7:30 PM MT

WHERE: SDCCU Stadium; San Diego, California (54,000)

TV: ESPN2

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here. You can also find the audio broadcast on TuneIn.

RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found on 940 AM, while the SDSU broadcast can be found on 101.5 FM (KGB) and XTRA 1360 AM.

SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the series 29-25-4. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Bulldogs defeated the Aztecs, 23-14, in Fresno.

LAST WEEK: Fresno State lost to Utah State at home, 37-35, while San Diego State lost at home to Nevada, 17-13.

WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | San Diego State

ODDS (via OddsShark): Fresno State -1

SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 2.9 (57% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: San Diego State by 1.3

The Fresno State Bulldogs have spent 2019 on an unpredictable path from week to week, but their chance to defend the Mountain West crown is still alive as they hit the road to face off with rival San Diego State.

The Old Oil Can isn’t the only thing on the line Friday, but this year’s matchup may be of a different vintage because it’s hard to imagine both teams being much more different. Rocky Long’s Aztecs have thrived on strong defense and special teams, holding opponents to the fewest points per drive since 2015 while Jeff Tedford’s offense, on that same basis, is scoring more points than any Bulldogs team since 2013.

Here’s how the Bulldogs can score a win over the Aztecs to stay in the hunt for the conference crown.

Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory

1. Try not to lose the field position game too early.

Even if the SDSU offense hasn’t always succeeded, there’s little doubt the defense has continually put them in a position to do so. The Aztecs rank fourth nationally with a 45.4% three-and-out rate and 12th in Stop Rate (percentage of drives ending with a punt, turnover, or turnover on down), and they’ve been especially good when opponents are pinned inside their 20-yard line in allowing 0.53 points per drive, which ranks seventh.

Getting at least one or two first downs in those situations could be crucial, then, since one thing these two teams have in common are that punters Blake Cusick and Brandon Heicklen have been very good this season. Fresno State and SDSU rank 15th and 31st, respectively, in net punting, so putting Cusick in a position to succeed — and putting the Aztecs in a position they have habitually struggled; they average 0.81 PPD when they are pinned inside the 20, 107th nationally — will make life easier for a depleted defense.

2. Have the better performance on the defensive line.

This one might be easier said than done. The Aztecs own a 6% sack rate that’s roughly similar to what they did in 2018, but they’ve been much more democratic about it this time around. Kyahva Tezino still has three sacks, but the defensive line trio of Keshawn Banks, Cameron Thomas and Myles Cheatum have combined for 12 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, a huge reason why San Diego State ranks second among FBS teams in Stuff Rate (plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage).

The fact that offensive tackle Syrus Tuitele and guard Quireo Woodley are dealing with nagging injuries may not help matters, either, but the good news is that the Aztecs offensive line has had its own adventures. Even without defensive end Isaiah Johnson, the latest injury casualty to be finished for the season, Mykal Walker and company should be able to step up and contain an offense that’s run the ball at its usual clip, 60%, without much success: SDSU’s 23.3% Stuff Rate on offense ranks 111th and their 3.35 YPC is down nearly two-and-a-half yards from two seasons ago.

3. Find a way to put the game in Ryan Agnew’s hands.

SDSU’s junior quarterback has been solid but he’s not what you’d call a true difference maker. He’s thrown the ball 26 times on average in the Aztecs’ seven wins, but that number jumps to 36 in their two losses with little difference in yards per attempt. Agnew is also still prone to the occasional poor decision and has struggled in more obvious passing situations, earning a first down on just 10-of-42 passes on third downs of seven or more yards. If the defense can create situations where he has to make a play, it may as well be a roll of the dice for the Aztecs but seems to favor the Bulldogs.

Prediction

The Aztecs have walked a fine line all season and you can make a reasonable case that they haven’t faced a strong and balanced offense like Fresno State all year long. There’s a lot of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness in this year’s clash, so while it’s hard to imagine a blowout on either side, it seems more likely the pedestrian SDSU offense will fail again to hold up its end of the bargain even against an iffy and banged up defense.

Fresno State 24, San Diego State 20

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Hawai’i vs. UNLV: Keys to a ‘Bows victory

Hawaii is looking to get bowl eligible by hosting UNLV this weekend.

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Hawai’i vs. UNLV: Keys to a ‘Bows victory

How the Warriors can defeat the Rebels

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

The battle for the golden pinapple

Week 12: Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors(6-4,3-3MW) vs. UNLV Rebels(2-7,0-5MW)

When: Saturday, November 16th, 2019

@ 1:00PM PT 11:00AM HST

Where: Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, NV

TV: Spectrum Sports PPV

Radio: ESPN Honolulu AM1420, 92.7FM

Stream: Facebook(Only on Mainland)

Series Record: UH leads overall 16-12 in Las Vegas UNLV leads 9-5

Last win at UNLV: September 15th 2007UH 49 UNLV 14

Odds: Hawai’i by -7

Will Hawai’i finally win it big in Vegas losing five straight at UNLV?

This will be the third edition of “The Ninth Island Showdown” and so far the home team has been able to keep it every time. There is no doubt Las Vegas has many distractions for players to lose some focus on the game. But Hawai’i has to put on their blinders and make sure they are on the same page entering Saturday afternoon’s contest. One of the main questions coming into this week is does Hawai’i head coach Nick Rolovich let redshirt freshmen Chevan Coideiro start two weeks in a row or start Cole McDonald who seems to have a good record on the road.

Keys to Hawaii’s victory

Keep UNLV guessing

Whether it is who’s starting at QB or the play calling on offense, the Rainbow Warriors need to keep the UNLV defense on their heels and score a bunch of touchdowns not field goals in the first half. That will give the defense a little cushion to be more aggressive in their zone blitzes and get some sacks that the defense is lacking all year long.

Reed-ing what the defense gives you

Miles Reed has been the missing element in the early part of the season. But now that the opposing defenses sends eight defenders back to cover the speedsters Cedric Byrd, JoJo Ward and company they leave gaps open for Reed to explode downfield and get huge chunks of yards. With the RPO in this run and shoot offense the defense also has to account for the elusive QB McDonald or Coideiro so Reed can get to the second level if given the ball.

Picking on the D

UNLV likes to do some jet sweeps and give their playmaker Charles Williams the ball and gain big chunks of yards pressing the defense. They know the ‘Bows D are 113th in the nation in rush defense and it will be Hawaii’s linemen and linebackers that will have to contain Williams or we may see another shootout like last week against SJSU. Also so far this year DB’s Ikem Okeke and Kai Kaneshiro have three interceptions and two respectively. Look for them closing in on receivers and maybe deflecting balls for more picks from the UNLV freshmen QB Kenyon Oblad.

Prediction

This will be the fourth MW team that has designated their Homecoming game with Hawai’i. The ‘Bows will love for the third time to ruin the home team’s night and sending the Rebel crowd home early and the large sea of green and black happy heading back to the hotels and casinos.

Hawai’i 38 UNLV 28

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Week 2 College Football Playoff Rankings: How To Watch, Stream, TV Schedule, Predictions

This week’s rankings are going to be released at 7 p.m. ET, which is two hours earlier.

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Week 2 College Football Playoff Rankings: How To Watch, Stream, TV Schedule, Predictions

A new time for the second week release of the playoff rankings.

Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire

Get your schedule adjusted.

The second week of the College Football Playoff rankings are being released on Tuesday night and at an earlier time so be prepared for the latest top 25 to be announced two hours earlier at 7 p.m. ET.

The latest playoff projections are not going to impact the Mountain West all that much as we peg Boise State at No. 20 and third in line for the Group of Five with Cincinnati being 17th and Memphis at No. 18.

The rankings themselves do not matter all that much as there are still a handful of games left and the two AAC teams ahead of Boise State play each other in the final week and possibly again in that league’s title game.

All the Broncos need to do is keep winning to stay in the race. The top of the rankings do not matter for our purposes but it will be interesting to see how much Minnesota will rise after its upset win over Penn State.

How To Watch

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 12
Start time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: WatchESPN or SlingTV

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Will Arkansas Come Calling For Boise State’s Bryan Harsin?

Arkansas is looking for a new head coach, will they call Boise State’s Bryan Harsin?

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Will Arkansas Come Calling For Boise State’s Bryan Harsin?

Could the Broncos be in the market for a new head coach?

Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire

It seems unlikely but you never know.

Arkansas is in the market for a new head coach after the school fired Chad Morris not even two years into his tenure in Fayetteville. With every Power 5 job that opens up, there is a concern about a good Mountain West coach could get poached to take over.

While Arkansas is not an amazing job at the moment but it is in the SEC and that is a big deal. The Razorbacks were able to land Bret Bielema from Wisconsin where he led the Badgers to three-straight Rose Bowls but went to take a low-level SEC job. So, the alure is real.

Of the Mountain West coaches that could be in the mix is Boise State’s Bryan Harsin. It is not just because Harsin is performing well for the Broncos but he actually has ties to the area.

They are loosely based as he spent one year as Arkansas State’s head coach and led them to a Sun Belt title, and he spent two seasons at Texas where he was the quarterback’s coach and co-offensive coordinator. Those two make him attractive with recruiting and connections to the area.

Will Harsin leave Boise State?

Never say never but consider that he just received an extension by virtue of the win over Wyoming which adds $2.25 million to his contract, which now expires Jan. 10, 2025.

Plus, Harsin has the chance to spend a few more years with an elite quarterback in Hank Bachmeier who looks to be the next great Broncos signal-caller.

Not having to go through a rebuild is very appealing to coaches but some also want the challenge of winning at the highest level. If Harsin were to take Arkansas to an SEC title or even get nine wins he’d be very much appreciated at that university.

Money is another reason why Harsin may want to go to the SEC. He currently makes a solid $1.75 million at Boise State; Morris was earning $4 million per year. The Razorbacks could easily double that and pay less for a new coach. Arkansas is willing to pay coaches very well. They are shelling out $10 million to let go of Morris to find the right guy.

Does Arkansas want Harsin?

The Razorbacks job is the third Power 5 school to open up this year. Rutgers and Florida State are the other two and who knows who else could be let go or move on from their current job. All signs point to USC opening up and that would push Arkansas down the pecking order of who they want or can get.

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Going with Harsin could be seen similar to the Morris hire. A coach from a Group of 5 school who was successful, however, Harsin has had more years and success as a head coach compared to Morris. Arkansas may feel getting Harsin is too similar to a move as Morris.

The ties are sort of there with Harsin but would his three total years in that part of the country amount to much with recruiting? There are other coaches in the area like Louisiana’s Billy Napier, UAB’s Bill Clarke, Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson, Willie Fritz at Tulane and more.

Recruiting and relationships is a big deal and that is one of the biggest weaknesses for Harsin being considered and that alow would have Arkansas put him below some candidates.

It is not like he is Mike Leech (don’t be surprised if his name comes up) who has a unique scheme that can give a boost overnight to it being so unique.

Arkansas spends like it is a big time player in college football and is in the SEC so they may want to make a big move this time around and avoid a Group of Five coach. Whether they get that or not is another question for debate.

Panic level for Boise State fnas possibly losing Harsin to Arkansas should seem pretty low.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Boise State In The Week 12 Top 25

After another hard-fought Mountain West football victory, where will the Broncos end up in the CFP pecking order? We make our prediction.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Boise State In The Week 12 Top 25

After another hard-fought Mountain West football victory, where will the Broncos end up in the CFP pecking order? We make our prediction.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Moving up, but by how much?

The Boise State Broncos didn’t have it easy on Saturday night, but after defeating the Wyoming Cowboys in a defensive showcase, their standing in the Group of 5’s College Football Playoff clump is intact. With San Diego State’s shocking defeat at home against Nevada, the Broncos once again stand alone as the conference’s standard-bearer for the New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Will the latest national developments be enough for Boise State to improve that standing, though? As always, keep this in mind first: A lot can change in a week and in the College Football Playoff era and things have definitely tended to change quite a bit over the course of a month or so.

Here’s a quick recap of the weekend that was and what it might mean.

Who lost?

From the top:

  • #3 Alabama lost at home to #2 LSU, 46-41
  • #4 Penn State lost on the road to #17 Minnesota, 31-26
  • #16 Kansas State lost on the road to Texas, 27-24
  • #18 Iowa lost on the road to #13 Wisconsin, 24-22
  • #19 Wake Forest lost on the road to Virginia Tech, 36-17

For Boise State’s purposes, the last two losses on the list seem likely to translate to some upward mobility. At this time last year, 5-3 Texas A&M fell out of the rankings from #20 after losing to 5-3 Auburn, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the same thing happen to Wake Forest and its bland resume (Have you heard the ACC is not good this year?).

Oddly enough, this is the second straight year the Hawkeyes have dropped a game immediately after the first CFP reveal, though this time around it’s not quite as egregious as losing to Purdue on the road. Last year, #17 Texas fell just two spots after losing by two to #13 West Virginia last season, so Iowa might just fall into the middle of the G5 morass this week.

Figuring out what will happen with Kansas State is a tougher nut to crack. From 2015 to 2018, seven teams ranked in the teens (13 to 19) have lost to unranked but better than .500 opponents after the first CFP rankings came out. Four of those teams fell out of the second top 25 altogether, but the aforementioned Iowa/Purdue game is instructive, as is Iowa State/West Virginia from 2017, since close losses are damaging — the Hawkeyes and Cyclones fell by five and six spots, respectively — but not fatal.

By Way of Comparison: How did the Group of 5 fare?

  • #20 Cincinnati defeated UConn at home, 48-3
  • #25 SMU defeated East Carolina at home, 59-51
  • Appalachian State defeated South Carolina on the road, 20-15
  • Louisiana Tech defeated North Texas at home, 52-17
  • UCF lost on the road to Tulsa, 34-31

Congratulations are in order, first and foremost, for UCF coming to the realization that no matter much how you thump your chest, no football program can become Boise State overnight.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, did exactly what was expected in dispatching the Huskies, but their immediate problem is that they may not make much headway in the rankings on their own until they host Temple on November 16. UConn doesn’t move the needle and beating a sub-.500 South Florida team probably won’t do the trick, either.

SMU, meanwhile, seems to be more lucky than good lately, as they now stand at 5-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points. Teams that don’t play defense tend to see that catch up with them at some point in November, so while they’ll probably rise with the rest of the G5 tide this week and next while they’re on bye, their upcoming clash at Navy is going to be a real gut check.

Appalachian State and Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, face a similar struggle. They’re racking up wins, yes, but strength of schedule matters to the committee and neither the Mountaineers nor the Bulldogs have it right now. The template, until further notice, is 2014 Marshall, which didn’t reach the CFP rankings until getting to 11-0 on November 25. App State’s cause would be helped if both North Carolina and South Carolina can claw their way to bowl eligibility, while LaTech will get tested with back-to-back road games at Marshall and then division foe UAB. Stay tuned.

So what do I think the top 25 will look like? Read on.

Pages: Page 1, Page 2

Air Force Football: Veterans Day Edition

Falcons Fly on and Off the Field Integrity First. Service Before Self. Excellence in All We Do. Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire The Air Force football team has began to garner a lot of attention as a contender in the Mountain West Conference. You …

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Falcons Fly on and Off the Field

Integrity First. Service Before Self. Excellence in All We Do. 

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

The Air Force football team has began to garner a lot of attention as a contender in the Mountain West Conference. You would be hard pressed to anoint a hotter team in either division of the Conference, and that includes Boise State.

In spite of an early season loss to the aforementioned Broncos, and a heart-wrenching defeat at the hands of bitter rival, Midshipmen, the Falcons have rallied. Last week they gutted out a hard fought win against their Service Academy rivals from West Point. And prior to that, they took their previous four conference opponents to task, routing virtually all of them.

The Falcons now sit at 7-2, remain undefeated at home and are bowl eligible with three games remaining. They also own the second most efficient offense in the country and to no-ones surprise, have committed the fewest penalties per game in all of college football. So you can see why there is a lot of excitement earning attention for the Air Force football program.

More than Just a (REALLY GOOD) Football Program

The Air Force Academy’s Mission is “to educate, train and inspire men and women to become officers of character motivated to lead the United States Air Force in service to our Nation.”. Their Vision is “The Air Force’s premier institution for developing Leaders of Character”. These are so much more than football players, students or educators.

During the Mountain West Conference’s Media Day’s in the pre-season, Coach Troy Calhoun said one single goal stands above all others at his program, and that is to graduate as many seniors to serve as officers as possible. Well done coach, well done. At the conclusion of the academic year, Calhoun will have overseen another 30+ seniors to graduation. There are some terrific athletes at the Air Force (Army and Naval) Academies, but these are even better women and men.

For perspective, the three Military Academies are a combined 16-7 this season against non-military schools. These are officers in training, who happen to play football on top of a schedule that includes full-time military training while completing one of the most demanding academic curriculum in the country. Football is the “easiest” part of their day.

I don’t bring this up to diminish the many outstanding scholar-athletes that make up the NCAA landscape at non-military schools. I don’t think it can be overstated though, how impressive it is that these young men and women- specific to this article, the Falcon Football team; are not just able to participate or compete, but to excel and succeed on the gridiron.

Let me be clear; I am not a military Veteran myself. But I do have this privilege of covering the Air Force Falcons football team, which I love. And I am so incredibly Blessed to have this platform to thank all of those who are serving and have served this Great Nation. Because of your commitment and sacrifices, I enjoy leisure such as this, freedom to pursue more, and most importantly the Freedom to Glorify my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, whom I pray to with gratitude for your Blessing and Protection. Thank you, thank you, thank you to all you Veterans.

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Hawai’i Quarterback: Who’s starting next week and beyond

Hawaii has switched around quarterbacks a few times this year, so who will head coach Nick Rolovich go with next week?

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Hawai’i QB’s: Who’s starting next week and beyond

Cordeiro or McDonald

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

What is going on with Hawai’s QB situation?

Chevan Cordeiro was 23-31, 309yds, 3 TDs in the win over San Jose State Saturday night at Aloha Stadium.

In what was the biggest decision Hawai’i head coach Nick Rolovich has to make in his still young coaching career he decided to start the redshirt freshmen over his one and a half year starter Cole McDonald.

After the game coach Rolo praised both quarterbacks with how they handled themselves both on and off the field. It’s not easy being on the sideline watching his backup run the run and shoot offense like Cordeiro has since his high school days at Saint Louis Schools. But being a good teammate McDonald is he is always the first to congratulate or give Coideiro some encouragement or insight when he comes off the field.

It looks like now coach Rolo has another tough decision going into the UNLV game next week in Las Vegas. While Coideiro has proven he can lead the team to many scores at Aloha Stadium we have not seen him start yet on the mainland. If Rolo wants to roll the dice again and start Coideiro next week this might be the one opponent to do it in a 2-7 Rebels team.

McDonald understood Rolo’s decision to start Cordeiro and told his head coach that he will work even harder next week to win back his job. So does this mean Rolovch can start McDonald again?

Absolutely. Look Hawai’i probably wouldn’t be in the situation they are in right now without Cole starting being 6-4 and having a slight chance to win the West Division and play for the Mountain West Championship. You have to give him credit for always believing he is “the guy” even when the local critics are hard on him.

So looking at the good situation Hawai’i has that they can start either quarterback and have a good chance of success. Let’s look at some facts to determine who should start:

  • Cole McDonald has the experience with 21 starts including a career record of 5-2 on the road against MW teams.
  • McDonald’s QBR is 68.0(47th best in the country) and despite throwing nine interceptions in the first four games McDonald has only thrown three on the last five.
  • Everyone can see that Cole is a confident guy whether through media interviews or on the field. He likes his chances of throwing into small windows in the secondary.
  • Cole’s tendencies still seem to be going through his progressions a bit slower than Chevan and his thought process of taking off is too late. Also, McDonald in the RPO gives the ball to the running back about 85% of the time instead of pulling it back and running with it.
  • Cordeiro albeit only started two games in his career has made the most of his time on the field with the two victories and also several comeback wins on his belt.
  • He has been in eight games in 2019 with a QBR of 84.1 and threw for six touchdowns to one interception.
  • Chevan can throw the long ball and connect with the highs of 71, 57, and 50 yards the last three games. But some deep passes can hang in the air and the receivers have to come back on it or it could easily be a pick but so far it hasn’t hurt UH.
  • He may be a quiet leader but he will boast about his teammates after the game every time.

It will come to if Cole McDonald can have stellar practices and prove he is still “the guy” for Coach Rolo. If Rolo is impressed and can trust Cole to make the throws he knows he can make he will start at UNLV.

After that week though we might see another change and start Cordeiro and give the San Diego State defense another thing to prepare for in his elusiveness. It will be like an MLB team having two-star pitchers and putting them against the team they know they have a better chance of winning based on personnel.

The future for Hawai’i football is with Cordeiro no doubt about it but the last three games (possibly four) can determine if McDonald will play in a Rainbow Warrior uniform next year. I’m thinking the future is now.

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