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Starco Brands LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

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The Mountain West will look to win its third straight LA Bowl as Boise State takes on UCLA. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Will the Broncos leave the City of Angels with their second straight bowl win?

STARCO BRANDS LA BOWL HOSTED BY GRONK: UCLA Bruins (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-5, 6-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 16 — 4:30 PM PT/5:30 PM MT

WHERE: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, CA

WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 76 degrees (note: game indoors)

TV: ABC

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.

RADIO: The UCLA broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the UCLA Sports Network, including flagship 570 AM (KLAC) in Los Angeles. The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise.

SERIES RECORD: UCLA leads the all-time series, 1-0. In the lone previous meeting on September 4, 1999, the Bruins defeated the Broncos, 38-7, in Pasadena.

LAST GAME: Boise State defeated UNLV on the road in the Mountain West football championship game, 44-20, while UCLA lost to Cal at home, 33-7.

WEBSITES: UCLABruins.com, the official UCLA athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): UCLA | Boise State

ODDS: UCLA -4

SP+ PROJECTION: UCLA by 0.5

FEI PROJECTION: UCLA by 1.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UCLA 80.46% win probability (31.93-20.55)

The second Mountain West game of the opening weekend of bowl games pairs the UCLA Bruins against the Boise State Broncos in Los Angeles on Saturday evening.

The Broncos have the opportunity to end the Bruins era in the PAC-12 with a loss and accomplish their final remaining season goal of winning a bowl game. This won’t be an easy task as UCLA is a talented team playing a virtual home game as SoFi Stadium is actually closer to campus than Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena.

Here’s how newly promoted head coach Spencer Danielson and the Broncos can get it done on Saturday against UCLA, as well as how the Bruins can handle business against Boise State.

[lawrence-related id=58361]

𝗕𝗢𝗪𝗟 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞! #GoBruins pic.twitter.com/d8GF9COyvD

— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) December 11, 2023

Three Keys to a UCLA Victory

1. Make sure the Murphy twins introduce themselves (rudely) to Boise State’s new quarterback.

Though star defensive end Laiatu Latu won’t take the field in the game, the Bruins have plenty of defenders who should be in a position to test Boise State freshman CJ Tiller, one of the team’s top 2023 recruits and the likely starter at quarterback for the bowl. After all, this is still a front seven that generated a 14.6% havoc rate in the regular season.

Chief among the remaining cohort are the Murphys, Grayson and Gabriel, who have combined for 11 sacks, 22.5 tackles for loss, and (per PFF) 63 quarterback hurries. How often they can get the upper hand against Broncos offensive tackles Kage Casey and Cade Beresford, who have given up 36 combined hurries but just four sacks, will be a critical factor for the Bruins.

2. Don’t waste red zone trips.

UCLA has often betrayed themselves inside the opponents’ 20-yard line this fall, ending the regular season by converting just 61.8% of their 55 red zone opportunities into points, the worst rate in the country. That problem has been magnified throughout the team’s recent slide, too, because the Bruins scored only seven touchdowns on 19 red zone tries in November.

As Action Network’s Brett McMurphy recently noted, Boise State has scored at least 30 points in ten of their last 11 games, so UCLA cannot afford to let chances fall by the wayside.

3. Re-establish the running game.

While the running back duo of Carson Steele and T.J. Harden both averaged over five yards per carry throughout the regular season, both have experienced a dip in production in recent weeks: Steele managed just 4.02 YPC in November while Harden’s 5.33 YPC average in that stretch is buoyed by a big performance in the team’s win over USC.

Turning that around against a Broncos defense that shut down some of the Mountain West’s most potent running games in the second half could be easier said than done, but UCLA probably can’t afford to put the game entirely in the hands of quarterback Ethan Garbers. Boise State hasn’t often been beaten in the trenches this fall, but they have given up an average of 4.79 YPC in their five losses (compared to 3.38 in eight wins).

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Bowling in LA 🎳🔵

🆚 UCLA
🗓️ Saturday, Dec. 16
⏰ 5:30 p.m. MT
📺 ABC#Compete | #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/iJZA8jAzqQ

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) December 11, 2023

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Get ahead of the chains with an effective run game.

Boise State got great news recently when star running back Ashton Jeanty announced he will return to The Blue for another year. Jeanty and fellow back George Holani have teamed up to form one of the most effective backfield tandems in the FBS, combining for nearly 2,600 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns. In the Mountain West championship game, the Broncos ran the ball 51 times for 301 yards, good for 5.9 yards per carry, and three touchdowns. The offensive line and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan also had one of their best outings of the year.

Two major challenges stand in the way of the Broncos accomplishing this key. The first is the departure of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green who recently entered the transfer portal and announced his commitment to Arkansas. The second is the fact that they are facing the third-ranked rushing defense in the FBS, though it is not quite as complete personnel-wise as it was throughout the regular season.

2. Reduce the pressure on CJ Tiller.

Head coach Spencer Danielson announced true freshman quarterback CJ Tiller will get the start under center with Green’s departure. Tiller has played just two snaps thus far in his college career and has zero pass attempts. Hamdan’s gameplan will be paramount in allowing CJ to get comfortable in his elevated role.

The Broncos’ stout run game outlined above will be key to getting Tiller off to a good start. Expect the talented freshman to utilize play action to slow down the Bruins’ pass rush and allow him time to process his reads and hit targets downfield. The recent announcement by UCLA star defender Laiatu Latu that he will forgo the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft should certainly help the true freshman feel more secure in the pocket on Saturday.

3. Contain UCLA’s athleticism.

It may be a tiresome narrative, but the Bruins have excellent athleticism, as you would expect from a P5 program despite their 7-5 record. Both contests against Power 5 competition this season showed that even with their high-level Mountain West recruiting, there is still a gap between the Broncos and P5 talent at some positions. Some of the issues likely arose from young players on the defense learning on the job and thus not feeling confident enough to play fast and free. It can also be reasoned that their contest against the University of Washington could be thrown out, as they have shown themselves to be above the rest of the FBS in ability, as they are slated to take on Texas in the College Football Playoff Semifinal.

Boise State defensive backs have been especially susceptible to athletic wide receivers running vertical routes. While the safeties and corners have shown marked improvement throughout the season, they still seem to have a play or two per game where they allow a receiver behind them. While the Bruins don’t have the most prolific passing attack, they will undoubtedly take shots deep to test this secondary.

Prediction

While the Broncos have made seemingly countless trips to the desert for the Las Vegas Bowl, the previous bowl destination for the Mountain West champion, this is their first trip to the relatively new LA Bowl. Look for Danielson to once again inspire the team to play for their seniors and do just enough to leave Los Angeles with a victory, behind a solid ground game and a sound defensive effort complete with a couple of turnovers.

Boise State 30, UCLA 24

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LA Bowl: First Look At The UCLA Bruins

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Fresh off of winning the Mountain West, Boise State will face a Bruins team in transition to close out the 2023 season.

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Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Which Bruins team will show up at SoFi?

After clinching the program’s fourth outright Mountain West football championship, the Boise State Broncos will conclude their year in southern California against the UCLA Bruins in the Starco Brands LA Bowl.

Where the Broncos rallied and have positioned themselves to end 2023 on a high note, the Bruins will defend what is essentially their home turf while mired in uncertainty. With an imminent move to the Big Ten, a head coach under fire, a highly-touted quarterback lost to the transfer portal, and a coordinator to replace, the drama surrounding UCLA at the moment might be as Hollywood as it gets in college football.

Here’s what Boise State fans need to know about their bowl game opponent.

2023 UCLA Bruins — Team Profile

Conference: Pac-12

2023 Record: 7-5 (4-5 Pac-12)

SP+ ranking: 38th

FEI ranking: 39th

Sagarin rating: 28th

Head coach: Chip Kelly (6th year at UCLA, 10th year overall; 34-34 with Bruins, 80-41 overall)

2023 in a nutshell: Following 2022, the program’s most successful year in almost a decade, Kelly’s Bruins found it harder to create a sufficient encore than expected this fall. UCLA started the year 4-1, only dropping a one-score decision on the road to Utah, but the highly-regarded offense never found consistency and scored more than 24 points just three times in its last seven games.

Though the Bruins did manage to take down cross-town rival USC in November, UCLA finished the regular season by losing three of its last four games, including home defeats to Arizona State and Cal. While the LA Bowl represents the program’s first appearance in back-to-back bowls since a five-year streak from 2011 to 2015, Kelly’s seeming job security hasn’t come without consternation.

Best wins: at USC (7-5), vs. Coastal Carolina (7-5), vs. Washington State (5-7)

Key Players

Laiatu Latu, LB

If you’re compiling a short list of the best players in college football, you have to include Latu after the year he’s had. Not only does he own the top overall Pro Football Focus grade of any defender in the country, 95.5, PFF also credits him with 36 quarterback hurries (tied for sixth) to go along with the 13 sacks (tied for fourth) and 21.5 tackles for loss (first) he’s accrued in 12 games. Put simply, there are numerous reasons why he was recently named a finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award and Lott IMPACT Trophy and has already won the Lombardi Trophy, so get familiar with #15 if you aren’t already.

When #UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu takes the field in Mobile, he’ll be the best player there.

Explosive pass rusher who uses his hands well and turns the corner better than anyone. Could, and should, enter top 10 discussion.pic.twitter.com/kHKmSxZ9so https://t.co/g8BiS3hUZX

— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) November 29, 2023

Darius Muasau, LB

The former Hawaii transfer has done little but thrive in southern California since joining the Bruins in early 2022. He earned a spot on the second-team all-Pac 12 defense this year by making a team-high 64 tackles, including four sacks and eight tackles for loss, and breaking up six passes, so it’s likely that he’ll be a central figure in UCLA’s plans for stopping the dynamic Broncos offense.

Duke Clemens, C

One of the longest-tenured Bruins on this year’s roster, the 6-foot-4, 300-pound redshirt senior has started 44 games over the last five seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, Clemens has played a team-high 843 snaps and allowed two sacks and 12 quarterback hurries, earning a spot on the second-team all-conference offense recently for his work.

Carson Steele, RB

Widely considered one of last off-season’s biggest transfer portal prizes after finishing tenth among FBS running backs in rushing yards, Steele’s first year with UCLA turned out to be a productive one. Though he split time with others in the offensive backfield, he led the Bruins with 847 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns, adding 17 catches for 169 yards as a receiver.

Truck stick activated.

Carson Steele is STRONG. @UCLAFootball pic.twitter.com/2trbHTq7BP

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 10, 2023

Gabriel Murphy, LB

Given the attention lavished on Latu in particular this year, you might be tempted to overlook Murphy, a redshirt junior from Dallas in his second full year as a starter for the Bruins. Opposing quarterbacks and running backs could tell you that’s a mistake, though, since Murphy finished second among UCLA defenders with seven sacks, 15 tackles for loss, and (per PFF) 37 quarterback hurries. On many other defenses, he’d stand alone, but Boise State will have their hands full tracking him among others.

Overview:

Offense

UCLA finished below the national average with 1.92 points per drive (82nd in FBS) and right near it in earning 47.6% of available yards per drive (60th). Considering this unit ranked in the top ten by both counts in both 2021 and 2022, the result seems vaguely disappointing, especially with a five-star quarterback, a pair of quality running backs, and a starting five on the offensive line that didn’t miss a single start this fall.

That blue-chipper under center, Dante Moore, had a fast start to the year but became erratic as the year progressed, perhaps unsurprisingly for a true freshman, and eventually elected to hit the transfer portal in late November. Ethan Garbers stepped up to replace Moore in mid-October, starting six games altogether, and provided some stability in completing 66.4% of his throws for 9894 yards, nine touchdowns, and a 2.2% interception rate.

At running back, Steele combined with T.J. Harden to provide a reasonably potent duo. Together, they averaged 5.18 yards on a combined 303 carries and accounted for 15 scores. Along the offensive line, Clemens and Purdue transfer Spencer Holstege provided a pair of experienced athletes with over 40 career starts each, but the Bruins struggled at times with pass protection this year. Among Pac-12 teams, only Colorado allowed more than the 42 sacks that UCLA did.

Another obstacle with which the Bruins had to contend is that the passing game wasn’t particularly explosive, either: UCLA had just 37 pass plays of 20 or more yards, also the second-fewest in the Pac-12. Kelly’s offense does have some players who can do some damage, however, most notably wide receivers Logan Loya (58 catches, 650 yards, five touchdowns) and J. Michael Sturdivant (32-455-3).

Defense

If UCLA’s offense was inconsistent, its defense under coordinator D’Anton Lynn was close to dominant, allowing on 36.4% of available yards per drive on average (12th in FBS) and 1.40 points per drive (8th). Unfortunately for the Bruins, USC hired him away to replace Alex Grinch, while it’s an open question as to how much of this unit’s star power will actually play in the bowl game. To this point, redshirt freshman safety Kamari Ramsey is the only defender of note to have announced a departure.

Should the front seven remain intact, it could pose the stiffest challenge that Boise State’s potent ground game has seen all year. Beyond Latu, Muasau, and the Murphy twins (Gabriel and Grayson Murphy, who had 7.5 tackles for loss and four sacks this year), the mountainous duo of Jay Toia and Gary Smith III handle the defensive interior while senior Kain Medrano (52 tackles, six TFLs) has started every game at strongside linebacker. In all, this group led the charge in holding opponents to just 2.33 yards per carry, the third-lowest average in the country.

In the secondary, Ramsey’s absence could be a major factor in a unit that pulled in 14 interceptions in 12 games. Senior cornerbacks Alex Johnson and John Humphrey combined to hold opponents to a 57.1% completion rate and 10.9 yards per reception on 98 total targets, but Kenny Churchwell III and Jordan Anderson are the only remaining safeties who received notable playing time throughout the season.

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