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Boise State vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The resurgent Broncos look to take down the rival Bulldogs and hang on to the Milk Can. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire
The rivalry overflows with stakes this weekend.
WEEK 10: Boise State Broncos (4-4, 3-1 Mountain West) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1, 3-1 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 4 — 7:00 PM PT/8:00 PM MT
WHERE: Valley Children’s Stadium; Fresno, CA
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy, low of 57 degrees
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.
RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise. The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno.
SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series, 17-8. In the last meeting on December 3, 2022, the Bulldogs defeated the Broncos, 28-16, for the Mountain West championship in Boise.
LAST GAME: Boise State beat Wyoming at home, 32-7, while Fresno State won at home against UNLV, 31-24.
WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | Fresno State
ODDS: Fresno State -3
SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 4.4
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 8.7
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Fresno State 74.49% win probability (30.21-21.48)
Always one of the most hotly anticipated matchups of Mountain West football season, the Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs will take center stage to cap off Week 10 of conference action.
Three Keys to a Boise State Victory
1. Don’t get killed by offensive turnovers.
One thing that’s been a persistent issue for the Broncos throughout 2023, even as they’ve mostly rediscovered their winning ways, is giveaways. The 15 turnovers are just two fewer than Boise State had in all of 2022 and as many as they had in 2021, and it’s a big reason why they’re on track to finish with a negative margin (-6, for the moment) for just the third time since 2009.
Some of that comes down to horrid fumble luck because the Broncos have lost eight of ten, but Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green have also combined for an interception rate that’s just a tick under 3%, which is itself a tick higher than the 2.4% rate they managed a year ago. By contrast, Fresno State has both the most takeaways (18) and the second-fewest giveaways (seven) of any team in the Mountain West, so there’s a strong case to be made Boise State could doom themselves if they’re too careless.
2. Get Eric McAlister some help in the passing game.
The sophomore wide receiver from Azle, Texas has firmly established himself as one of the best in the Mountain West throughout the 2023 season, but help around him has been sorely lacking in conference play: Stefan Cobbs has just four receptions in four Mountain West and Billy Bowens has only six, averaging 10.6 yards per catch against conference foes between them.
Considering that McAlister is likely to lock horns with Bulldogs cornerback Carlton Johnson early and often, Cobbs, Bowens, and tight ends Matt Lauter and Riley Smith will need to provide some assistance to take advantage of potential soft spots elsewhere in coverage. Namely, don’t be shocked if offensive Bush Hamdan tries to pick on Alzillion Hamilton, who has stepped into the starting lineup following a season-ending injury to Cam Lockridge with mixed results: Per Pro Football Focus, he’s only allowed a reception on 55.3% of the 38 targets he’s seen, but Hamilton also has a 39.3% missed tackle rate.
3. Hold the line on third downs.
One small, but key, difference in Boise State’s recent turnaround is improved defense on third downs. After holding Wyoming to just 1-of-11 in Week 9, the Broncos have now allowed Mountain West opponents to earn a first down on 35.9% of opportunities, the third-best rate in the Mountain West and, as it happens, a better rate than that of Fresno State, who have allowed a third-down conversion rate of 40.35% in four conference games.
Maintaining that upper hand will be important since the Bulldogs have found a way to move the chains more frequently than the Broncos on offense, converting 50.9% of third downs in Mountain West action to Boise State’s 44.9% rate. If the defensive improvement is for real, styming the powerful Fresno State offense more often than not will be significant proof of it.
Three Keys to a Fresno State State Victory
1. Get home no matter who’s dropping back to pass.
Despite the unusual two-quarterback arrangement that the Broncos have deployed over the last several weeks, one thing they’ve done consistently well is pass protection, allowing Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green to get sacked just eight times on 260 combined dropbacks.
However, one discrepancy that the Bulldogs might be able to exploit is that one Boise State quarterback has felt considerably more pressure than the other. According to Pro Football Focus, Green’s pressure-to-sack ratio is just 7%, the lowest figure in the Mountain West, but Madsen’s 23.8% rate is the highest. The hope, then, is that Fresno State and its 17.3% havoc rate can find a way to capitalize where Colorado State, San Jose State, and Wyoming could not.
2. Keep the Broncos running game in check.
One key to Fresno State’s success in last week’s win over UNLV is that, after adjusting for sacks, the Rebels’ running backs managed only 3.7 yards per carry. That’s the latest testament to the 21% stuff rate that the Bulldogs have generated thus far, though that skill will get tested again by Ashton Jeanty, George Holani, and Jambres “Breezy” Dubar.
However, one potential wrench in Boise State’s plans is whether Jeanty is healthy enough to receive his usual heavy workload, as he had six carries last Saturday against Wyoming before missing the entire second half with an undisclosed injury. While head coach Andy Avalos expressed confidence that the ailment was probably no big deal, it’s worth noting that Holani’s return from a six-game absence was more okay than anything with 75 rushing yards on 20 carries (coincidentally, Dubar also averaged 3.75 yards per carry against the Cowboys). In other words, if Jeanty is actually limited to some extent, it could provide a potential boon to the Fresno State defense.
3. Be prepared to string together long scoring drives.
Thankfully, this has not often been an issue for the Fresno State offense. According to Brian Fremeau, the Bulldogs currently rank 16th in the country by averaging 2.73 points on drives that begin inside their own 20-yard line; by contrast, the Boise State defense has given up 2.20 points on those same drives, an average which is 101st overall.
However, the Broncos may have a substantial special teams advantage in punter James Ferguson-Reynolds, who currently leads the Mountain West with an average of 49.68 yards per punt and eighth among all FBS specialists with a net of 43.35 per kick. Assuming that Kevin Coyle’s defense can do its job consistently, it may come down to whether Mikey Keene and company can craft an 80-yard touchdown drive at some point or not.
Prediction
Though the Bulldogs are the defending Mountain West champions, Boise State has actually held on to the Milk Can every year since 2018. That streak includes the 40-14 blowout at Valley Children’s Stadium back in 2021, when Fresno State was ranked.
The question is this: How much trust do you have in Boise State’s defense? The same unit that just finished embarrassing Wyoming last Saturday had a total collapse against Colorado State the week before, and it seems reasonable to suggest the Bulldogs offense is more akin to the Rams than the Cowboys. On paper, there are good reasons why the home team is the slight favorite but the Red Wave knows better than most that you can’t count the blue and orange out under any circumstances. Expect a nailbiter, but I think the ‘Dogs survive and reclaim rivalry bragging rights.
Fresno State 34, Boise State 33
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