Fantasy Football Sleepers and Undervalued Picks – Page 2

Fantasy football sleepers to play in Week 1

Take a look at these fantasy football sleepers for Week 1.

As the fantasy football draft season comes to an end Thursday night, managers will begin their quest toward a championship.

Part of that journey is the ever-challenging objective of finding the right sleepers to start every week. Whether it’s selecting the right streaming option at the quarterback and tight end positions or finding a flex option who boosts the entire lineup, the search for sleepers is endless.

We will be using The Huddle’s weekly PPR projections and rankings as a reference to find some potential boom games this week.

Here’s a look at some sleepers to play in Week 1 of fantasy football to get your season started with a win:

5 deep sleepers to take a flier on in your fantasy football drafts

These players could provide exceptional value in fantasy leagues.

With the preseason officially coming to an end this weekend, it has reached the point where we have about as much information as we can get entering the regular season.

As such, it’s a good time to look at some lesser-known players that might return significant value. Call them deep sleepers, dart throws, or lottery tickets, but don’t be afraid to call their names if you’re looking for late-round upside.

5 undervalued players from August fantasy football drafts

Five players flying under the radar in August fantasy drafts.

Determining which players will over- and underperform their fantasy football draft station is annually one of the most important elements in putting together a winning roster. As the season inches closer, it’s a good time to see where players are being drafted, and how their ADP (Average Draft Position) corresponds to what they might do in 2023. With that in mind, here are five players that look well positioned to overdeliver relative to their current draft slot.

3 fantasy football sleeper place kickers to target

A trio of kickers to target if you opt to wait until the final round.

There are few things more satisfying in the world of fantasy football than identifying a player or group to break out when your fellow owners don’t.

With that in mind, it’s time to look at some possible sleepers for the upcoming season from everyone’s favorite position to discuss, place kicker.

5 tight ends to consider if you miss out on the top guys

Several value buys at the tight end position to target on draft day.

For those who play in tight end-mandatory leagues, there is a clear sense of demarcation among the top fantasy football tight ends. Once Travis Kelce goes, it starts the clock when the other top tight ends come off the board. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson make up the second tier. Not far behind are Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts as the third tier.

Clearly, not every fantasy team is going to make the investment to land one of these players. For those fantasy teams, owners can hold off filling this roster need for a long time and still get value. Here are five tight ends to keep in mind if you don’t get one of the top guys.

Which QB2-ranked players could finish with QB1 numbers?

Here’s a three-pack of fantasy quarterbacks who could overdeliver in 2023.

There is no universal ranking system for fantasy football players, so ADP (Average Draft Position) from early drafts serve as setting the bar for the pecking order of position players. In some leagues, rosters have only one quarterback, which leaves almost two-thirds of the league’s QBs available for pickup. In most formats, only one quarterback is started, but backups are rostered as insurance and to cover injuries or bye weeks.

When looking at quarterbacks consistently outside the QB1 designation (top 12), these are the three who should draw serious consideration to be drafted as a high QB2 with the potential to post numbers better than some of the QB1 players taken in front of them.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs

2023 Fantasy Sleepers – Running Backs

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Running Back	Starter Values
1	SF	Christian McCaffrey	Finally healthy after two bad injury years and looked great behind the SF O-line. Consistent points every week. And that’s a lot of points.
2	LAC	Austin Ekeler	Final year of his contract and no worse than the No. 2 fantasy RB for the last two years. He may or may not get paid next year, but he’s golden for your fantasy team in 2023.
3	ATL	Bijan Robinson	This is ridiculous for a guy who hasn’t played an NFL down. But he is undeniably talented and landing on a team that will build around him and that has a very good O-line. There’s nothing wrong with reaching for an exciting player that you want to own and Robinson could replicate Saquon Barkley’s rookie year when he was the No. 1 fantasy RB. Go ahead, you know you want to.
4	NYG	Saquon Barkley	Signed the one-year deal so 2023 is a safe and productive “go” for the RB who, like McCaffrey, comes off a thrilling healthy season.
5	CLE	Nick Chubb	The No. 5 fantasy back of last year may be in his final year of the CLE contract since they have an out for 2024 when they could save $12M by releasing him. Everything to play for and should have the best quarterback of his career.
6	IND	Jonathan Taylor	Taylor, when healthy and happy, is a beast. He wasn’t healthy last year and he isn’t happy this year. He wants to be traded. Until his situation is certain, he is a coin flip with a huge payoff or a huge risk.
7	DAL	Tony Pollard	It took four years to become someone in the NFL but Pollard now takes over as the RB1 in Dallas behind a good O-line and for a team that wants to be more conservative. Never more than 193 carries a year so far, so Pollard has to prove durable but the opportunity is golden.
8	LV	Josh Jacobs	Well. Last year was pretty good. The holdout is happening but the consensus is that he’ll end up back with the Raiders. When is another question. He hasn’t fallen far enough in drafts to compensate for the risk he has so far.
9	TEN	Derrick Henry	Top-5 every year since 2019 when healthy and only hurt once. This feels like a good value and he’ll fall even further in a few drafts. He has at least one more monster season left in him. Or four or five. He’s always an outlier.
10	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	Pats opted to turn Stevenson into a workhorse last year as the No. 7 fantasy RB. But he carries risk since the Pats historically preferred a committee backfield and they’ve poked the tires of most notable free agent backs. His upside looks likely limited while the risk of a Year 3 decline is a reality.
11	PIT	Najee Harris	Opened career as the No. 3 fantasy back but dropped back to No. 14 last year while PIT didn’t fare well post-Roethlisberger. O-line is no longer a liability and there’s a nifty leap into an easier rushing schedule this year.
12	NYJ	Breece Hall	Agreed – tremendous rusher and the ROY of 2023 until Week 8. But he returns from a torn ACL. He may be ready by Week 1, but maybe not. And how “back to form” will he immediately be? Will they take it easy with him? Hey, how many free agent backs are they going to try out? This is too early of a pick to accept so much risk. He won’t immediately be 100% in health and usage to start – lot’s of questions so early in your draft.
13	JAX	Travis Etienne	Etienne missed his rookie season with a Lis Franc injury to his foot but looked good enough in 2023 to let James Robinson go mid-season. Ran for 100 yards five times over his final ten games. Slated to do more as a receiver this year on a dangerous looking Jaguars offense.
14	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	Slow start last year with a groin pull but once Rashaad Penny had his annual season-ender, impressed with three 100-yard games to end the season. Rarely catches and the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet to rekindle a committee. Schedule also takes a downturn making him less attractive than this early RB2 price.
15	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	Any first-round RB is fantasy relevant and this ex-Alabama is a threat whenever he touches the ball. Runs a 4.36/40-time and is an outstanding receiver. Pairs with David Montgomery but plays behind an elite O-line. One of the more exciting picks to be made in any fantasy draft.
16	HOU	Dameon Pierce	The fourth-rounder on a bad Texans’ team was a delightful surprise through Week 10 but he slowed down in the second half of the year, then landed on IR for final month with an ankle injury. Texans’ also ran him as much from a lack of passing success. New coaches, new scheme, improved passing, and a guy named Devin Singletary all work against Pierce repeating the same success.
17	CIN	Joe Mixon	Restructured contract to remain the RB1 for the Bengals and was a Top-10 for the last two years. Had a career best 60 catches last year as well. This feels very cheap.
18	CAR	Miles Sanders	Easy to find wildly different forecasts for Sanders. True – leaves the best O-line in the biz but CAR is at least average. He also leaves a dedicated committee approach for the Panthers’ new offense that still only has Chuba Hubbard as the RB2. Rookie QB Bryce Young won’t run much, and maybe won’t throw deep, but Sanders was brought in to be a dual threat on a team that will likely need him in the passing game.
19	GB	Aaron Jones	Come on. Yes, Aaron Rodgers went to New York. And Jones comes off four-straight Top-10 fantasy back seasons. Maybe Jordan Love won’t throw him the standard 50 completions but maybe he will. Packers have a great O-line and a far better rushing schedule this year.
20	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	So many reasons to love and hate Dobbins. Better rushing schedule, top O-line, better passing should be less defensive focus on him. Big fan of new OC Todd Monken. But missed 2021 with a torn ACL and then needed a clean-up midseason missing eight games last season. Never catches the ball but had three nice yardage efforts last year. But apparently is holding out in final year of rookie contract. Maybe he returns to team, stays healthy and produces this level of production. And maybe continues to hold out with almost zero leverage and/or gets hurt yet again.
21	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Have to like his ascension into being the RB1 with Dalvin Cook gone. But his four NFL seasons have all been sub-500-yard rushing efforts with minor work as a receiver. Vikes did not add any obvious challengers to him. He’s probably worth around this pick but any upside from here would not follow from what he’s done so far.
22	TB	Rachaad White	I am liking White more as the summer wears on, and he’s impressed coaches with no real competition for touches on the roster. The Bucs’ rushing schedule is also much better this year but the O-line has declined to one of the worst. He’s worth this pick, and seems to have a little upside, but that depends on how well the Bucs can throw post-Brady.
23	FA	Dalvin Cook	Was a lock for 1,500 total yards and eight touchdowns for the last four years, but the Vikes moved on and saved a ton of cash. This end of the RB2 level is comfortable since he should step into a fantasy relevant role before the season starts. He’ll be adjusted depending on where he lands.
24	PHI	D’Andre Swift	He is better than you probably think, and never worse than the No. 21 fantasy back for his three years. Trades one great O-line for another. But Eagles will use a committee and Swift misses at least three games per year. He’s likely to see more catches and fewer runs while in Philly. He’s a far better “best ball” pick than someone to rely on every week as a fantasy starter.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Running Back	Depth Considerations
25	LAR	Cam Akers	Never better than the No. 32 fantasy back in his three seasons so this already feels optimistic. The Rams sport the worst O-line in the NFL and are trying to dust themselves off from the collapse of 2022. Struggled last year until final three games had him with 100+ yards versus the three worst run defenses. Lacks consistency at best, and looks good only against really bad opponents.
26	DEN	Javonte Williams	Encouraging rookie season was followed by blowing out multiple knee ligaments in Week 4 of last year. He’s back in practice though has been limited in some practices as he returns to health. He’ll likely be better later in the season but offers some upside for a RB3 pick.
27	ARI	James Conner	He’s always good for 1,000 total yards and eight scores or so. Cardinals O-line is not a strength but the rebuilding team is situated to run the ball more than they should this year, and Conner offers a good set of hands from the backfield when they pass. He will miss three games or more since he always does. But he’s a fair RB3 with no real competition for touches. He’s never been worse than No. 19 while with the Cardinals.
28	KC	Isiah Pacheco	The summer sensation of 2022 eventually took the lead role in the second half of the season. He ended with around 80 total yards per game and scored in four of the final seven games while playing through a torn labrum that has since been fixed. Chiefs will involve other backs, but Pacheco emerged as their best runner and they own the No. 1 best rushing schedule this year.
29	BUF	James Cook	Improved over his rookie season as the No. 2 back, Devin Singletary left and now Cook gets his shot. He has impressed this summer but the Bills added Damien Harris and have always used a committee. But Cook carries upside in this offense and could rise in the rankings this summer.
30	DET	David Montgomery	Has never been worse that the No. 24 fantasy back and won’t have a quarterback stealing yards and touchdowns. Lions own one of the top O-lines and Montgomery is a dual threat. Has to share with Jahmyr Gibbs, but the offense is far better than he had in Chicago.
31	WAS	Antonio Gibson	New OC Eric Bieniemy is talking up Gibson as a receiver and he’s been no worse than this level in three seasons. He’s a cheap RB3 in a reception point league.
32	GB	AJ Dillon	Dillon won’t offer RB1 stats ever, but he’s a solid complement for the Packers and their great O-line. There is risk with Jordan Love taking over, but Dillion is a reliable back with around 1,000 total yards and six or so touchdowns. That should continue and potentially even get a small bump if the Packers struggle to connect with their wideouts.
33	NO	Alvin Kamara	He was a lock for Top-10 stats but fell to only No. 16 last year during the Saints struggles. Is he a RB3 now? This all depends on the resolution/suspension from his legal issues. The Saints O-line is no longer an advantage but the schedule is kind and the addition of Derek Carr should help the passing effort. Carr doesn’t run, so Kamara should get back to his higher level of receptions. Pending the suspension, this feels like a good value for a player that has appeared to be back in shape and reinvigorated. Even if he misses some games.
34	WAS	Brian Robinson Jr.	He’s the rushing half of the backfield and new OC Eric Bieniemy looks to improve the production. Robinson missed the first month of 2022 and enters the season as a healthy starter with no new holes that need to heal. Not a ton of upside, but he’s a decent RB4 to fill in when needed and at worse, a handful of points each week.
35	NO	Jamaal Williams	The hope in Williams joining the backfield is that they can reprise the Mark Ingram role from a few years back. Williams blew up last year with 17 touchdowns for the Lions and should be a great complement for Alvin Kamara and even better if Kamara misses any games from suspension.
36	MIA	Devon Achane	The Dolphins already have a logjam in the backfield and that’s without them adding one of the free-agent running backs by the start of the season. Achane draws attention because he ran a 4.32 40-time at the NFL combine and looks great in camp. But he is only 5-9 and 188 yards and likely won’t offer any consistent production. But – rookie rusher with jaw-dropping speed always deserves a roster spot.
37	CHI	Khalil Herbert	Spent two years behind David Montgomery but now has a chance to be the RB1 in Chicago. Hasn’t rushed more than 129 times in a season so far but was effective. He’ll contend with a quarterback that runs and scores, plus D’Onta Foreman who could end up taking over after his big year with the Panthers. Herbert missed at least three games each season despite never having more than 138 touches.
38	DEN	Samaje Perine	Lands in Denver along with new HC Sean Payton in an offense that wants to rebound from 2022. He’ll safely be the RB2 there unless Javonte Williams struggles in his return from knee surgery.
39	PHI	Rashaad Penny	What a great best ball pick and a bad redraft league option. Penny may well start the year as the Eagle’s primary rusher. But they rely on a committee, D’Andre Swift is also there, and Penny’s career consistency with landing on IR is at 100% for his five NFL seasons. He’ll have at least two great games, maybe a few more, but history says it is not a name you’ll mention in December. Maybe not November. October? Which part?
40	SEA	Zach Charbonnet	The UCLA stud was the third running back drafted this year and is slated to pair with Kenneth Walker. At least when he is healthy. He’s out “indefinitely” with a shoulder injury and that could mean anything since there is no official injury reporting until the season starts. Until there is clarity, or he returns, he is fantasy roster depth and a great handcuff for the Walker owner.
41	BUF	Damien Harris	Harris was productive with the Pats with as many as 15 touchdowns in 2021. But he’s often injured and lost his job to Rhamondre Stevenson. Now he lands with the Bills which sounds interesting, but they use a committee approach and James Cook is getting all the hype this summer.
42	SF	Elijah Mitchell	Great handcuff for the Christian McCaffrey owner and upside if Mitchell filled in as the primary. Missed at least six games injured himself every year, so there is downside as well. Would never merit a fantasy start if McCaffrey was healthy.
43	CHI	D’Onta Foreman	The Bears moved on from David Montgomery and replaced him with Foreman who ran for 914 yards and five TDs for the Panthers last year. Almost zero experience as a receiver, and any touchdown role will be decreased thanks to Justin Fields, but Foreman could end up with the bulk of carries competing with just Khalil Herbert.
44	KC	Jerick McKinnon	He’s 31 years old and found no takers as a free agent so re-signed with the Chiefs. He’s been highly productive for small stretches of games but never used consistently. Worth a RB4 pick just in case he gets hot again for a month.
45	PIT	Jaylen Warren	Just a backup to Najee Harris but may see more work as the RB2 since the Steelers want to focus more on the run this season. The UFDA ran for 379 yards and caught 28 passes for 214 yards, so he’s bye-week filler if the matchup is right.
46	FA	Kareem Hunt	He’s only 27 and hasn’t been worked into the ground. But he fell to 3.8 yards per carry behind the Browns line last year and now as a free agent is rarely spoken about. He’s one of the group of free agent backs wishing for the old days, and probably the least likely to end up with a significant role this season.
47	JAX	Tank Bigsby	Solid backup for Travis Etienne who is impressing as an inside rusher and definite RB2 for the Jags improving offense. Great handcuff for Etienne and could produce stand-alone fantasy value in any case.
48	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	Handcuff for Bijan Robinson but won’t yield fantasy relevant stats barring an unthinkable injury to the rookie.
49	HOU	Devin Singletary	Played out four years in Buffalo with around 1,000 total yards and six or so touchdowns per year. Never was set loose with a high if 188 carries in that offense and now pairs with Dameon Pierce which should ding both backs potential fantasy points. But the offense is new and Singletary could carve out a third down role plus Pierce hasn’t proven durable yet.
50	NO	Kendre Miller	Solid pick with upside and a handcuff for Alvin Kamara who appears likely to be suspended for a stretch. Miller was the fourth back drafted this spring and is a play for the future with Kamara helping to mentor him. Jamaal Williams is likely the RB2 so Miller may be underused other than filling in for any suspension games of Kamara.
51	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	So maybe that previous monster contract fed into the current reticence of the NFL to pay any running back. But Elliott is only 27 and by report in better shape now that the cruise control is broken. As a RB5, he’s a solid stash in the second half of your draft that should end up somewhere, mostly relegated to goal line, short yardage and relief work. But he won’t be signed to just watch where ever he ends up which may be back home in Dallas.
52	MIA	Raheem Mostert	The Dolphins use a committee and there’s always the chance that they add another free agent back before the season starts. Offers a great bye-week filler if he is healthy still and managed three 100-totl yard efforts last year.
53	TB	Leonard Fournette	Same as the other free agent backs – waiting by the phone. There’s speculation that Fournette’s biggest problem is that he isn’t as dedicated to his craft as he could be and that his inattention to his weight is just one symptom. Still, he could become fantasy relevant at some point, particularly if a team loses their RB1 during the season and needs quick help.
54	TEN	Tyjae Spears	He could have future appeal and the ex-Tulane back was the fifth rookie back taken. But as long as Derrick Henry is wearing a helmet, Spears is just a handcuff.
55	CHI	Roschon Johnson	The ex-high school quarterback switched to running back at Texas but then ended up watching Bijan Robinson peel off highlight reels. Johnson’s ceiling is still not known and he’ll be behind Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman but nothing is set in stone in Chicago.
56	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	When they let Christian McCaffrey go last year, Hubbard didn’t take over. D’Onta Foreman finally caught his career on fire while Hubbard got hurt and was overall worse than his rookie season. The Panthers brought in Miles Sanders as the RB1 and Hubbard is just a handcuff.
57	ATL	Cordarrelle Patterson	The 32-year-old Patterson trailed off badly last season and is finally showing his age. If Patterson offers any consistent fantasy value, it will happen alongside every Bijan Robinson owner screaming “get up! Get up! Noooo!”
58	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	Gainwell may offer fantasy value during the season should other injuries occur and the committee approach adds him back into the mix, but he’ll end up as one of your first throwbacks during free agent waivers.
59	MIA	Jeff Wilson	He’ll be in the mix for the Dolphins but likely won’t offer more than a bye-week filler unless Raheem Mostert is injured. And – they don’t sign another free agent back.
60	CLE	Jerome Ford	Handcuff for the Nick Chubb owner. The former fifth-round pick of last year steps up to take Kareem Hunts RB2 role and may end up with minor fantasy value.

Best of the rest

Gus Edwards (BAL) – Deserves a fantasy roster spot as the RB2 on a Ravens’ team that wants to run. J.K. Dobbins is unhappy and not all that durable.

Zamir White (LV) – The rookie of 2022 did nothing but will gain a role if Josh Jacobs holds out. Worthwhile final round pick to see what happens.

Deuce Vaughn (DAL) – He’s too small for an every down role at 5-5 and 179 pounds but the backfield is in transition and could make room for others behind Tony Pollard so long as Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t end back up in Dallas.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks

2023 Quarterback Sleepers and Value Plays

While there are many definitions of “sleeper”, this analysis considers a sleeper as someone drafted as a backup that becomes a fantasy starter. The first 12 quarterbacks taken are already starters, so the green shaded players are picks that offer the best value in that spot and could be considered earlier. Those in red are being drafted too high for their expected outlook.

Below is ordered in their average draft position from recent drafts. This won’t be exactly like your draft, but it tends to be close enough to rely on.

Average Draft order – Value Picks

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Starter Values
1	BUF	Josh Allen	The first three QBs are a matter of preference and all are about equally as likely to end up as the No. 1 fantasy QB this year.
2	KC	Patrick Mahomes	Will throw more and run less than the other two.
3	PHI	Jalen Hurts	Best runner and still improving as a passer.
4	CIN	Joe Burrow	Burrow was the No. 4 fantasy QB last year and could repeat, but injured his calf and may miss the preseason. He’s dropped a little, could be just as good, but why take any unnecessary risks with solid options on either side?
5	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Hasn’t been better than the No. 10 fantasy QB in the last three years, but always delivers thanks to his rushing and new OC Todd Monken is a solid reason for optimism in the passing game.
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	He ends up between the No. 3 and No. 8 fantasy QB every year. Solid pick but lack of rushing keeps him outside of the Top-4.
7	CHI	Justin Fields	Ended an otherwise miserable 2022 Chicago season as the No. 10 fantasy QB thanks to all that rushing. Has better receivers now and a very accommodating passing schedule. Worth this slot.
8	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	The 1.01 of 2020 was already No. 7 fantasy QB last year. Has as much upside as any other QB and maybe more talent. Usually a 6th or 7th round pick that could end up in the Top-5. Calvin Ridley completes his ensemble.
9	CLE	Deshaun Watson	Was a very relaxed Top-5 QB through 2020 but still looking to return to previous success. Upgrade at WR and his first full season should help and this “low end” fantasy starter price makes the risk worthwhile.
10	DAL	Dak Prescott	Top-10 every other year but just No. 18 in 2022 due to injury. Lost his OC Kellen Moore but gained Brandin Cooks. Lack of rushing since the 2020 ankle injury hurts fantasy stock and old-school play calling by HC Mike McCarthy likely more conservative.
11	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	When healthy and on the field, always worth at least this. But has never missed fewer than four games in his three seasons and I have enough headaches to deal with during the season.
12	NYG	Daniel Jones	Three years of being no better than the No. 20 fantasy QB, then last year sudden ran for 708 yards and 7 TDs to end as the No. 12 fantasy QB. Still only averaged 200 passing yards per game with only 15 pass TDs. Expect opponents to watch the run and hopes he passes this year.

Sleepers and Overvalued Players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Depth Considerations
13	MIN	Kirk Cousins	In the last 8 years, Cousins only once failed to be at least the No. 11 fantasy QB and was Top-6 last year. They added 1.23 pick Jordan Addison and get a full year of T.J. Hockenson. Yeah, he’s worth scooping up as a starting QB.
14	DET	Jared Goff	Should be at least this good and likely better. Was No. 9 last year and adds Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams to a light schedule behind a great O-line. Hendon Hooker may be a factor in 2024, but not this year.
15	SEA	Geno Smith	The earth’s rotation was thrown off a little last year from everyone running to their waiver wire to grab Geno Smith, the journeyman turned No. 5 fantasy QB. The only reason he’s this low after also adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba-Smith is because we’re still trying to wrap our heads around what happened last year.
16	NYJ	Aaron Rodgers	He’s always been a lock for Top-12 and was Top-3 eight times in his long career. Changes teams but not receivers, adds Garrett Wilson. But loses that great GB O-line and he doesn’t run much in his old age. Still a solid QB2 with a chance for QB1 stats at least some of the time.
17	IND	Anthony Richardson	Rookie QBs don’t normally end this high, but this spot is a play for rushing yards more than receiving yards. He only started one year at Florida, only threw for 2,549 yards and 17 TDs but ran for 654 and 9 TDs. He’s very raw and the IND O-line ain’t what it used to be.
18	DEN	Russell Wilson	Was injured in 2021 and had his first flop. Went to DEN and had minor injury issues as well but flopped beyond all expectations and besmirched what had been a great reputation. New coaches, same receivers, and a lighter schedule should prompt a bounce back.
19	NO	Derek Carr	Spent the last nine years between the No. 12 and No. 20 fantasy QB. Mr. fantasy backup will likely remain there, but he’s a 4,000-yard passer on a team with potential. He’s still a backup, but should be one of the first ones taken. Great schedule this year.
20	LAR	Matthew Stafford	Nothing like pairing his worst and best NFL seasons back-to-back while throwing in a scary neck problem. Stafford drove in a weekly demolition derby without a helmet last year, so 2023 has to be better. Expect that O-line isn’t and Cooper Kupp is a lock to be the main read on every play.
21	GB	Jordan Love	Flip a coin. The only thing we know for sure about Jordan Love is that he is not Aaron Rodgers. He enters his third year with just 50 completions and 13 runs for 26 yards. This deeply, why not?
22	ARI	Kyler Murray	Any player can get hurt on any play. I never take anyone who is already hurt to start (or not) the season. ARI looks like a rebuilding train wreck this season.
23	PIT	Kenny Pickett	Don’t forget that Pickett was the top-drafted QB in 2022 and he has some weapons in Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson. Deserves a spot on a fantasy roster.
24	CAR	Bryce Young	The top-drafted QB in 2023 inherits a rebuilding CAR squad with new coaches and players all over the roster. He’s very likely to struggle in Year 1 but needs to be on a roster just in case he realizes that opponents are made of players that he beat in college.

Best of the Rest

Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The second quarterback drafted in 2022 only played in four games as a rookie, but gets the start this year behind a solid O-line and with enough weapons that he can take advantage of the easiest passing schedule in the NFL. Falcons will look to run, but Ridder is one to watch.

Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) – Sure – he’s going to eventually going to get injured because he is Jimmy Garoppolo. But pairing with Davante Adams in a familiar Josh McDaniels offense and facing the No. 2 easiest passing schedule should yield nice results while he is healthy.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Wide Receivers

2023 Sleeper and Value Play Wide Receivers

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Wide Receiver	Starter Value
1	MIN	Justin Jefferson	Top wideout of 2022 enters final year of rookie contract with everything to gain by repeating that No. 1 ranking.
2	CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	Lock to be Top-5, could challenge for No. 1
3	LAR	Cooper Kupp	Rams didn’t add any new receivers so Kupp, health willing, will end with an obscene amount of receptions. His health may be a concern.
4	MIA	Tyreek Hill	Says he wants 2,000 yards and while unlikely, it wouldn’t be all that shocking.
5	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	Better each year and was No. 6 last season. 107 catches in 2022 was just four short of Cowboys record by Michael Irvin.
6	BUF	Stefon Diggs	Never worse than No. 7 after three years in Buffalo.
7	PHI	A.J. Brown	First year in Philly and had a career year as the No. 5 fantasy wideout last year. Now he already has chemistry with Jalen Hurts.
8	LV	Davante Adams	Been Top-3 for the last three seasons and yes, even without Aaron Rodgers. 100 catches is his standard.
9	NYJ	Garrett Wilson	Rookie season saw 83-1103-4 learning new offense while the Jets used four different quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers brought his own receivers, all except for the next Davante Adams…
10	DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Lions will feature some new faces on the offense, but St. Brown has already locked down the WR1 role and already caught over twice as much as any other receiver. Already belongs to the 100-catch club.
11	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	Maybe Tyreek Hill isn’t going to dominate all the targets. Waddle didn’t suffer, he just got better with 1,356 yards and a team-high eight receiving touchdowns.
12	PHI	DeVonta Smith	Same deal as Waddle. Brought in A.J. Brown and Smith just got better with 95-1196-7. Already was a Top-10 wideout last year so this feels like a good value.
13	NO	Chris Olave	1.11 pick last year looks to improve on his 72-1042-4 rookie season playing with Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Derek Carr will be an upgrade and their schedule is much better.
14	CIN	Tee Higgins	This feels too high for a wideout that’s never been better than the No. 19 in his three seasons. He’s hit his ceiling already and it isn’t this high.
15	SEA	D.K. Metcalf	Solid as a lock for around 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns. Switching to Geno Smith didn’t improve his stats, but didn’t bring them down much either.
16	CLE	Amari Cooper	Two of his last three years saw him as Top-15 and now he gets a full year of Deshaun Watson. Cooper scored a career-best nine touchdowns in 2022 and only played six games with Watson.
17	SF	Deebo Samuel	Remember 2021? I remember 2019, 2020, and 2022 as well. Never better than No. 31 other than the one aberrant season. Christian McCaffrey already does everything that Samuel does, only better and a whole lot more often.
18	WAS	Terry McLaurin	He’s been a lock for WR2 stats every year. Imagine what he could do if the Commanders had a quarterback. I bet McLaurin does.
19	LAC	Keenan Allen	Safe spot for Allen. He’s offered WR1 stats for five straight years but then had injury woes last season. He’s 31 years old and starting to cool down while the Chargers brought in Quentin Johnson to kickoff the transition.
20	TEN	DeAndre Hopkins	He was a perennial Top-5 wideout for four straight seasons, but then the wheels started wobbling in 2021 with a hamstring issue and torn MCL. He wasn’t the same last year and the knee continued to flare up and the Cardinals fell apart. Now he joins the Titans who already have Treylon Burk and yet ranked around No. 30 in virtually every passing category. Not exactly a high-octane passing attack heading to the Super Bowl.
21	JAX	Calvin Ridley	Plenty of reasons not to buy into Ridley, but all reports have him looking great in camp and gaining chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. He’s a popular sleeper and will not come cheaply despite not playing for nearly two years. And yet, he’s on a short list of players that could explode and far exceed their draft spot. His last full season had him as the No. 5 fantasy wideout of 2020.
22	GB	Christian Watson	After the defections to the Jets, Watson is the clear WR1 for the Packers but was only the No. 41 fantasy wideout playing with Aaron Rodgers with minimal other receivers of note. Swapping out to the first year for Jordan Love seems far more risk than likely reward for a player that only managed three games with more than 50 yards last year under better circumstances.
23	CHI	D.J. Moore	Has never been worse than the No. 25 fantasy wideout but also not much better and he ends up in Chicago on the passing offense that ranked No.32 in pass attempts and yards.
24	DEN	Jerry Jeudy	Even with Russell Wilson struggling, Jeudy ended as the No. 22 fantasy wideout and there’s every reason to expect that the Broncos pass better this year with the change in coaches and offense.
25	LAC	Mike Williams	Other than 2021, Williams has spent his career with around WR3 fantasy stats. He was No. 14 in 2021 but then only No. 33 last year. Williams usually missed a couple of games in most seasons.
26	JAX	Christian Kirk	This seems pretty harsh dropping from No. 12 last year. Perhaps the addition of Calvin Ridley has most spooked, but as we saw on several teams last year, it is not a zero sum game. Adding Ridley may just add more production and Kirk doesn’t have to see his stats take a dive.
27	TB	Chris Godwin	Godwin was a solid fantasy WR2 the last couple of seasons with Tom Brady there, and now that they move onto Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask), it seems prudent to dial back the expectations, especially since Mayfeld is not going to throw 811 times like Brady just did. He should deliver at least this level of production and maybe a bit better depending on Mayfield who did produce two 1,000-yard receivers in one season at Cleveland.
28	ATL	Drake London	The first wideout drafted in 2022 should be ready for a Year 2 leap after posting 72-866-4 as a rookie on a team that didn’t throw. Desmond Ridder takes over, the Falcons’ rushing game must be respected, and they have the lightest schedule strengths after battling one of the worst last year. London was already the No. 28 wideout last year and this draft spot assumes no improvement? Very nice value here.
29	SEA	Tyler Lockett	He’s been a solid fantasy WR2 for the last five seasons but he turns 31 years old and the Seahawks have an out with his contract next year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wideout drafted this year and is ready to take the torch from Lockett sooner than later. Lockett will still have a role and will offer fantasy value, but for the first time he’s likely to see a decline in workload as the season progresses.
30	IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	This feels like a bargain for a talented wideout who was around No. 20 for the last two seasons with a revolving door at quarterback. But adding the raw rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to the equation has to have some dampening effect. Pittman is worth the pick as a mid-level WR3.
31	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	This feels too low for a wideout that has never been worse than No. 35 even as a rookie that missed four games. He was No. 15 last year and the 49ers appear to be getting Brock Purdy back. The schedule is worse, but this drop seems unwarranted.
32	PIT	Diontae Johnson	Johnson’s stats suffered when Ben Roethlisberger was no longer shot-putting every other pass to him. Johnson ended as the No. 32 fantasy wideout last year when he ended with 86-882 and a historic zero touchdowns on that many catches. George Pickens should see an uptick this year and the Steelers want to focus more on the run. Johnson is likely safe here, but there’s no reason to expect much upside.
33	TB	Mike Evans	This is ADP. I am not sure why since Chris Godwin goes five picks earlier and Evans already ranks No. 2 in NFL history with nine straight 1,000-yard seasons. 33? He’s never been worse than No. 22 and that’s playing with a slew of marginal quarterbacks prior to Tom Brady. He is only 29 and is impressively linking up with Baker Mayfield in training camp. I might just draft him twice to make sure I get him. He’s rarely a fantasy WR1 but he’s never been a WR3.
34	ARI	Marquise Brown	Every player on every team has fantasy value of some level and is worth owning at the right spot. I feel comfortable with always letting someone else find the right spot for a Cardinals’ receiver. Looks like a train wreck this year.
35	PIT	George Pickens	No problem taking Pickens here as a final fantasy WR3. He’s in a nice spot for a step up in Year 2 after logging a No. 39 fantasy rank as a rookie wideout playing with a rookie quarterback in 2022.
36	MIN	Jordan Addison	The majority of rookie wideouts do not meet fantasy expectations but the new that do are in the sort of situation that Addison has. He’s the first-round pick of the Vikings looking to replace Adam Thielen while Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson keep the secondary busy. Addison should make a tremendous complement to Jefferson and he caught up to 100 passes in a season in college. He should have a smaller learning curve than many while playing in an offense that already was Top-5 in all passing categories.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Wide Receiver	Depth Considerations
37	TEN	Treylon Burks	He gets dinged with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but it may not be as bad as feared. He didn’t fare well as a rookie with only 33 catches for 444 yards and one score, but he stepped into a touch situation with A.J. Brown gone and leaving a vacuum. He’s rightfully outside of being a fantasy starter, but he was one of the top wideouts coming out of college last year.
38	KC	Kadarius Toney	Sure, he is on a team or two of mine. Probably yours too. And we both enter the season hoping that he stays healthy, blows up with Patrick Mahomes, and rewards our pick. And yet, we expect that eventually we will cut him in frustration after his <insert big number> injury just when he seemed to turn the corner. He started the summer climbing the draft boards, injured his knee, and now is back on his way down.
39	SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	The first wideout drafted this year joins a team that already had two great receivers. But the more we see, the more it seems that Smith-Njigba will be a nice surprise as a rookie even if it comes at the expense of someone else (cough, Tyler Lockett, cough). He’s the best college had to offer this year and Geno Smith has proven up to the challenge.
40	WAS	Jahan Dotson	He’s another first-round rookie of last year that should see a step up in production. The Commanders’ quarterback situation is the only limitation, much as it has been for Terry McLaurin for years. Just ask him.
41	DEN	Courtland Sutton	Taken as a backup fantasy wideout, Sutton is a solid pick with upside. New HC Sean Payton bring optimism that maybe 2022 wasn’t who the Broncos really are. This draft spot says Sutton remains the same as the last two years, and this should be his floor, not his ceiling. Russell Wilson has to turn it around and use Sutton (and Jerry Jeudy) to do that.
42	DAL	Brandin Cooks	Cooks is like the Pete Davidson of the NFL. He scores with everyone and yet no relationship sticks. He lands in Dallas as his fifth employer and he logged at least one 1,000-yard season with each of the first four. But he’s never been in one place more than three years. Cooks is 29 years old and still has gas in the tank and the Cowboys have a need for someone, anyone, to line up across from CeeDee Lamb and contribute. Cooks won’t be the WR1 for the Cowboys, but he can, yet again, turn in notable stats. He’s already had six Top-20 seasons and at least one with every previous team.
43	NO	Michael Thomas	Thomas is either on the verge of being a star again, or more likely, remains the lesson we will never learn. He’s never been the same since his monster 2019 season. It is easy enough to convince that this price point makes him a worthwhile gamble, but ankle, foot, and toe injuries have sidetracked his career. For those who played fantasy football in 2019, it is easy to get talked into believing again. But at some point, let someone else burn a pick on the hopes for a magic year.
44	BUF	Gabriel Davis	This is the fourth year for Gabe Davis fans who expect him to make a significant step up. But he’s peaked last year at just No. 35 when he turned in 52-801-4. He could repeat that level, so this is a solid spot for a back-up type that should be great for bye weeks and perhaps more if injuries happen to your roster. He’s already found his level and convincing him of being more is getting much harder to do.
45	BAL	Odell Beckham Jr.	His last year of making a difference was 2019 in Cleveland and he held out of football completely last season. He’s already talked about retiring in 2024 if this doesn’t go well (Part IV). Maybe joining a Bottom-5 passing offense isn’t the way to success.
46	NE	JuJu Smith-Schuster	I try really hard not to build the same team in every draft, but then Smith-Schuster shows up as the No. 46 wideout and I pull the trigger. He was the No. 1 wideout for the Chiefs last year (78-933-3) and the No. 16 fantasy wideout in 2020 when he was healthy in Pittsburgh. He’s the favorite to be the No. 1 wideout in New England and that has to be worth more than the No. 46 wideout drafted. Jakobi Meyers was the No. 29 fantasy wideout with the Pats last year and the offense has to be better.
47	CLE	Elijah Moore	If you can convince yourself that Deshaun Watson will return to form this year, then this pick is a steal. Regardless, Watson is an upgrade over the Jets quarterbacks for the last two years. He may not have huge upside, but he could work into a matchup-dependent rotation for a fantasy team.
48	LAC	Quentin Johnston	The second wideout drafted this year has less of a clean path to production with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead on the depth chart. But 31-year-old Allen missed seven games last year and could be released next year. 28-year-old Williams is also in his final guaranteed season and could be released next year. Williams also misses a few games each year as well. Johnston is a lock to end better than he starts, but the uncertainty keeps him as just fantasy roster depth. Johnston was just one pick back of being the first wideout drafted last April.
49	DET	Jameson Williams	The 1.12 pick of last year stayed out to heal his ACL tear and then was caught gambling on the premises and is suspended for six games. The ex-Alabama star has the potential to become a starter and was a national talent until the ACL injury. That worth a draft pick as a WR5 to see what happens. But – he cannot play until Week 7.
50	CAR	Adam Thielen	Love this pick but reality is that while Thielen may be the WR1 in Carolina, what that means is not certain. A new offense is being installed with a rookie quarterback and not one receiver seems likely to be more than average. But Thielen can become a best friend for Bryce Young looking to get rid of the ball. He’s worth owning and should provide low-level bye-week coverage at the least. But his ceiling won’t be very high.
51	NYJ	Allen Lazard	He rejoins Aaron Rodgers as a Jet and that will help transition the offense into OC Nathaniel Hackett’s scheme. Minimal upside but Lazard should manage to produce a handful of points per week.
52	BAL	Zay Flowers	No arguing his talent. Flowers was the third wideout drafted this year and should develop into a starter as early as this year. Rashod Bateman may be in the way, but Flowers is making a strong case to be the No. 2 wideout across from Odell Beckham who may last the entire season. But the Ravens passing offense has been Bottom-5 and Mark Andrews takes the biggest share before the wideouts get targets anyway. There’s upside from his talent, but his situation will be challenging for a rookie.
53	ARI	Rondale Moore	The Cardinals passing offense is nothing to buy into as they have a shaky quarterback situation and face the worst passing schedule strength while operating behind one of the worst O-lines. Not enough upside to merit any consideration.
54	CLE	Donovan Peoples-Jones	A full season of Deshaun Watson will help, but adding Elijah Moore shortcuts Peoples-Jones from becoming a weekly fantasy consideration.
55	BAL	Rashod Bateman	Bateman’s stock has fallen with the addition of Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers. There’s just not enough passes, let alone well-thrown ones, to prop Bateman up to being a fantasy starter.
56	HOU	Nico Collins	This spot is significantly higher than he’s produced for his two seasons, but the Texans offense is undergoing change and will rely on the rookie quarter C.J. Stroud. There’s no proven wideouts of any note, and the depth chart is open. Collins is more likely to end up on the waiver wire than a starting lineup, but he’s worth a deep stash to see what happens.
57	KC	Skyy Moore	Moore was a hot sleeper last year since he joined the Chiefs offensive machine but he only managed 22 catches for 250 yards. But yet again, the Chiefs lose their No. 1 wideout and the depth chart is wide open again. There are plenty of other candidates vying for work, but spending a WR5 pick on a speculative player is warranted.
58	GB	Romeo Doubs	Depth player only and may end up on the waiver wire depending on what Jordan Love does as a starter. He’s just a roster filler for now.
59	LV	Jakobi Meyers	Meyers was about the No. 30 fantasy wideout for the last two years in New England. He joins the Raiders and should slide into the WR2 role across from Davante Adams. He’s been an 800-yard sort of wideout and that should continue in Las Vegas. There’s still some upside for him to take another step up in a new offense and he rejoins Josh McDaniels and already knows the offense.
60	MIN	K.J. Osborn	The drafting of Jordan Addison means Osborn’s role won’t get a major bump filling the void left behind by Adam Thielen. He’s more likely to see fewer targets than more.

Best of the Rest

Van Jefferson (LAR) – Ranked No. 36 after 2021 when he produced 50-802-6 in the Rams march to the Super Bowl and was expected to take another step forward last year but injured his knee while the Rams progressively fell apart. Matt Stafford is back and will need to throw. Cooper Kupp is the pass sponge, but Jefferson looks like the No. 2 receiver.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) – He ends up between No. 30 and No. 40 in recent seasons. He has almost no real upside but offers weekly points if your roster gets thin.

Zay Jones (JAC) – Solid showing with 82-823-5 during his first season in Jacksonville. Calvin Ridley assumes the top spot and that will impact Jones. But he merits a roster spot and can become a starter again if either Ridley or Christian Kirk are injured.

Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends

2023 Sleeper and Value Plays at Tight End

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Tight End	Starter Value
1	KC	Travis Kelce	Maybe the greatest fantasy career of all time.
2	BAL	Mark Andrews	A lock for Top-5 and the only tight end to ever net a No.1 fantasy rank during reign of Travis Kelce.
3	MIN	T.J. Hockenson	Fits into the Vikings scheme and reaps the benefit of defenses chasing Justin Jefferson.
4	SF	George Kittle	Top-4 in four of the last five years. He gets dinged up, some years more than others. Final four games with Brock Purdy only totaled seven touchdowns. Plenty of upside.
5	NYG	Darren Waller	Agreed there is some upside in landing with the Giants, but he’s been average at best other than 2019 and 2020. Banged up the last two years, also 30 years old. Not many tight ends offer the potential for difference making fantasy stats, but his risk makes this a few picks too early. Derek Carr’s worst year was better than Daniel Jones best year.
6	ATL	Kyle Pitts	2022 was an off year thanks to a new offense and Marcus Mariota. Pitts is still supremely talented. Coming off a torn MCL makes this spot reasonable and the Falcons passing schedule should make it profitable.
7	PHI	Dallas Goedert	He ends up around No. 10 every year but that’s because he misses three to five games. He’s a great start when he suits up.
8	JAX	Evan Engram	After struggling for four years with Daniel Jones, went to Jacksonville and had a career year with Trevor Lawrence. Just signed a three-year deal to keep the momentum.
9	PIT	Pat Freiermuth	He has a good shot at being better than this ranking, and yet three concussions in two years make him a risky bet. Solid pick this late but think about carrying another tight end just in case.
10	CLE	David Njoku	Never better than No. 9 in his six seasons. Browns get a full year of Deshaun Watson, but brought in more wideouts to help the passing. Didn’t connect that well with Watson in the few joint games last year.
11	BUF	Dalton Kincaid	Bills ranked No. 28 in tight end throws last year and this is as high as any Bills tight end reached in six years of HC Sean McDermott. He may end up elite, but rookie tight ends on teams that are already Top-3 passing isn’t something to rely on. Next year…
12	HOU	Dalton Schultz	Top-10 for the last three years in Dallas and now with Houston where they’ll want to throw but the receivers are mostly “unproven”. Nice situation for dependable hands close by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Tight End	Depth Considerations
13	TEN	Chigoziem Okonkwo	He’s not a fantasy starter but he may become one. Okonkwo is a popular sleeper this year and for good reason. His rookie year of 32-450-3 was encouraging. DeAndre Hopkins may hold Okonkwo back, so he’s a fantasy backup for now.
14	DEN	Greg Dulcich	Another popular sleeper and he managed a 33-411-2 rookie season with ten games played. He started to pick up steam later in the year and merits a roster spot that could end up as a fantasy starter.
15	LAR	Tyler Higbee	He’s 30 years old and enters Year 8 with the Rams. Managed a No. 5 finish to 2023 while the Rams offense imploded. Matt Stafford is back and Rams did not add new receivers. Won’t win your league, but won’t lose it for you either.
16	CHI	Cole Kmet	Finished No. 7 last year but was last man standing. Bears added DJ Moore and get Darnell Mooney back. His outlook is dialed back but Kmet is a talented receiver when given the chance.
17	DET	Sam LaPorta	He’ll develop into a solid, and maybe spectacular, tight end. But the rookie has plenty to learn this year and the Lions have other options when they pass. Dynasty pick? Sure. Reliable pick this year? Not on my team.
18	CIN	Irv Smith Jr.	Never amounted to much in Minnesota despite high draft pick. Oddly goes from team with the No. 2 wideouts to the team that have the No. 3 wideouts. He’s no difference maker and not even a great bye week filler.
19	LV	Michael Mayer	The optimism placed on rookie tight ends has been overly kind in every case other than Kyle Pitts. Mayer could easily be the best receiving tight end from this year’s class, but is unlikely to offer the consistency to merit a fantasy start. He’s a fine pick and hold just in case, but the odds are against him offering any difference making stats.
20	NO	Juwan Johnson	Solid fantasy backup with seven scores last year. His ceiling is limited, but he’s a serviceable weekly fill in. Change in quarterback can only help.
21	LAC	Gerald Everett	First year with the Chargers ended as the No. 11 fantasy tight end. His production is capped by those wideouts and adding Quentin Johnson won’t help Everett improve on his 58 catches. He’s still a worthy backup.
22	ARI	Zach Ertz	He is 32 years old and returning from a torn ACL/MCL. Just no. Second-year Trey McBride is a better choice if you need a Cardinals’ tight end. And honestly, have you ever needed a Cardinals’ tight end?
23	NO	Taysom Hill	If your league considers him as a tight end, why not this deep? The plan is to throw to him more often and he’s making almost $10M this year.
24	NE	Hunter Henry	Solid backup pick and has shown chemistry with Mac Jones last year and again this summer.

Jelani Woods (IND) – Second-year tight end that’s 6-7 and yet runs a 4.6 40-time. The new offense should treat Woods as the new Dallas Goedert in HC Shane Steichen’s scheme.

Trey McBride (ARI) – Another second-year tight end and he plays on a Cardinals team that may very well end up throwing more to their tight end than ever before. Worth tracking at the least.