Category: Fantasy football risers and fallers

Fantasy Football: Targets, Touches & TDs – Week 1

Analyzing which Week 1 fantasy football performances have staying power and if you should add or pass on those players in your fantasy football league.

The NFL’s 101st season is a NFL and fantasy football season unlike any other, and that was clear on the opening Sunday with fans in attendance at only one of the day’s 13 games and face-masked coaches – well, for the most part – patrolling the sidelines.

But in other respects, 2020’s Week 1 was much of the same ol’, same ol’ with the New England Patriots receiving superior quarterback play to beat the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals bumbling away chances for a 1-0 start like only those woebegone franchises can.

Fantasy football-wise, there were the usual Week 1 standouts who came out of nowhere to blow up on benches or are now taunting and tempting owners from the waiver wire.

But which of these standouts are flash-in the-pan fool’s gold (recall Sammy Watkins, Case Keenum and T.J. Hockenson from Week 1 a season ago) and which are the real deal? Here’s the forecast for 10 of Sunday’s surprise standouts (going by relative preseason ADPs) and whether we’re buying in or simply bypassing …

Fantasy Football Targets, Touches and TDs

New England Patriots QB Cam Newton

Fantasy position rank (Huddle Performance scoring) through Sunday: Seventh with 27.2 fantasy points

Buying or bypassing? Definitely buying.

Cam did the bulk of his fantasy damage with his legs Sunday, rushing for 75 yards and two touchdowns on a team-leading 15 carries in the 21-11 home win over the Dolphins. He only threw for 155 yards with no TD tosses, but he passed his most important test by seemingly emerging from the contest fully healthy.

In the six (of his nine total) seasons in which Newton has played at least 15 games, he’s been a top-four fantasy quarterback five times. And even though he’s now 31 and the Patriots’ passing-game weapons are less than ideal, Josh McDaniels’ offensive mind can certainly make up for a number of deficiencies and can easily help set up Cam to another top-10 fantasy QB season.

Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: Ninth with 26.7 points

Buying or bypassing? Bypassing – aside from two-quarterback leagues.

Trubisky was impressive Sunday, throwing for 242 yards and three TDs without a turnover in rallying the Bears to a 27-23 comeback win over the host Detroit Lions. He has traditionally done well vs. the Lions, too.

His run of four straight games with at least 23.6 fantasy points from Week 12-15 last season likely is still fresh in fantasy memories, but in Trubisky’s other 17 games since Week 11 of the 2018 season, including a wild-card playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, he’s only scored as many as 23.6 fantasy points once. Trubisky rhymes with risky, and that’s exactly what the up-and-down QB is outside of two-quarterback leagues or as a fill-in start in standard leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: 13th with 22.6 points

Buying or bypassing? Buying – in two-quarterback leagues only.

Minshew was superb Sunday in directing one of the upsets of the day, completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and a trio of TDs in a 27-20 win over the visiting Indianapolis Colts. With the second-year starter also an able ground threat – he was fifth among QBs with 344 rushing yards a season ago – and the Jags figuring to have to throw often given their overall talent deficiencies, Minshew is a strong bet to improve on his No. 21 fantasy finish at the position a season ago, but there’s simply still not enough to count on him as a weekly starter in a 10- or even 12-team league.

Los Angeles Rams RB Malcolm Brown

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: Fourth with 23.0 points.

Buying or bypassing? Interested, but just renting for now.

While rookie Cam Akers and second-year back Darrell Henderson were the sexy summer fantasy picks in the Rams’ backfield following the offseason departure of Todd Gurley, it was the veteran Brown who outtouched (21-18) and outperformed (110-49 in total yards 2-0 in TDs) the young duo combined in Sunday night’s 20-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Brown, though, had a big Week 1 a year ago with 17.3 fantasy points (53 total yards, two TDs on 11 touches spelling Gurley), but never reached double digits in any of his remaining 2019 contests. Don’t expect a repeat of that tumble, but once Akers gets up to speed, expect Brown to revert back to a reserve/handcuff role once again in L.A.

Indianapolis Colts RB Nyheim Hines

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: Seventh (fourth PPR) with 19.3 (27.3) points

Buying or bypassing? Most definitely buying – particularly in PPR leagues.

Hines led Indy in rushing (28 yards on seven carries) and receiving (eight catches for 45 yards) and scored via the ground and air in the loss to the Jags.

Some of Hines’ production was a result of starter Marlon Mack’s season-ending Achilles’ tendon tear Sunday, and he should continue to fill a valuable pass-catching role with rookie Jonathan Taylor assuming the bulk of the rushing duties going forward. Hines was an afterthought in drafts with the excitement of the Colts selecting Taylor in the second round this spring, but the former has been highly underrated despite 115 receptions in 33 career games since 2018, and now needs to be rostered in all PPR leagues.

Los Angeles Chargers RB Joshua Kelley

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: 16th with 12.0 points

Buying or bypassing? Buying as a bench stash/handcuff.

The rookie back had a strong debut Sunday, rushing for 60 yards and a TD in a 16-13 road win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite only receiving one target, Austin Ekeler rushed a career-high 19 times for 84 yards Sunday so expect those carry and target totals to balance out more toward the latter as the season goes on given Ekeler’s non-workhorse stature. That will leave a decent chunk of rushing attempts available, and with Justin Jackson (2 carries for 4 yards Sunday) battling a quadriceps issue to open the season, Kelley is in prime position to seize the No. 2 role.

Atlanta Falcons WR Russell Gage

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: Ninth with 20.4 points

Buying or bypassing? Bypassing outside of deeper leagues.

Gage caught a career-high nine of 12 targets for 114 yards in Sunday’s 38-25 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks and stunningly still finished with the third-best receiving day on the team. Fellow wideouts Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley also were targeted 12 times apiece and each finished with nine catches as well with Jones racking up 157 receiving yards and Ridley 130 to go along with a pair of TD grabs.

Matt Ryan has attempted eight more passes and finished with 86 more yards than any other passer so far through Sunday, and while it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Falcons ranked among the pass-heaviest teams at the end of the season, asking one offense to support a trio of top-30 fantasy wide receivers is a lot to ask, so Gage, while promising, remains the odd man out. Don’t prioritize adding him outside of deeper leagues.

Indianapolis Colts WR Parris Campbell

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: 24th (PPR) with 14.0 points

Buying or bypassing? Buying as wideout depth.

New Indy QB Philip Rivers finished with only one fewer completion (37-36) than Ryan Sunday and his most frequent targets were WRs T.Y. Hilton and Campbell (nine apiece) and the aforementioned Hines (eight) out of the backfield.

Campbell, though, led the team in receiving yards Sunday with 71 on six receptions, and his specialty as an underneath target seems more compatible with the 38-year-old Rivers’ current game than the deep-threat Hilton. Campbell might’ve been overlooked in your league after health issues limited to him to 18 receptions in seven games as a rookie in 2019, but add him to your bench if you’re looking to upgrade your wide receiver depth and upside.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Scott Miller

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: 29th (PPR) with 12.9 points

Buying or bypassing? Buying – in deeper leagues.

Miller added to his preseason buzz with five catches for 73 yards on six targets Sunday in the Bucs’ 34-23 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Like Gage, it’s tough to get excited about the No. 3 wide receiver on a team with two fantasy studs in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but the latter clearly was limited by a balky hamstring in Week 1 and finished with only a two-yard TD catch on four targets Sunday.

New Bucs QB Tom Brady found a connection in New England with another wideout from the Mid-American Conference in Julian Edelman, and Bowling Green’s Miller could be a poor man’s version in Tampa. Swoop him up in deeper leagues or if you need a bench flyer.

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas

Fantasy position rank through Sunday: Seventh with 9.7 points

Buying or bypassing? Bypassing – for the time being.

Thomas, a converted former QB, led Washington in targets Sunday with eight, and reeled in four of them for 37 yards and the team’s only receiving touchdown in a 27-17 comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Those aren’t small feats on a team in dire need of reliable offensive weapons, and among all league tight ends, only Philly’s Dallas Goedert (nine) has had more Week 1 targets than Thomas. Still, tight end is a deeper fantasy position than in recent seasons, and it often comes down to which TE scores a TD that week. Definitely keep Thomas on your radar if you need help at the position, but he’s far from a must-add if more proven talents such as Mike Gesicki, Chris Herndon and Jack Doyle are also available in your league.

Fantasy Football Extra Points

  • With injuries continuing to hamper the team’s wideout corps, Philly tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz combined for 16 targets, 11 receptions, 119 yards and both of Carson Wentz’s passing TDs in the loss to Washington. Goedert is no longer a secret as he begins his third season, and through play Sunday, led all league tight ends in targets (nine), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (101). Both Eagles tight ends are strong weekly starting considerations.
  • The Lions’ backfield was a three-headed mess Sunday with Adrian Peterson leading the way in touches (17) and total yards (114) and rookie D’Andre Swift (6 touches-21 yards) pacing the contingent in snaps (34) while scoring the group’s only touchdown. The odd man out appears to be incumbent Kerryon Johnson, who rushed seven times for only 14 yards while bringing up the rear in snaps (26).
  • Saints stud RB Alvin Kamara rushed for only 16 yards on 12 carries Sunday but looks to be well on his way to some expected positive touchdown regression after scoring twice – once each via air and ground – and having a third TD overturned on a coin-flip replay. Kamara totaled only six TDs all of last season after scoring 31 over his first two years.
  • Lost in the shadow of Josh Jacobs’ monster rushing day (25 carries-93 yards-three TDs) Sunday for the Las Vegas Raiders, he finished second on the team in targets with six and caught four for 46 yards, setting career highs in all three categories. It was only one game against the defenseless Panthers, but Jacobs is looking like a locked-in elite fantasy back for his sophomore season.
  • Jets WR Jamison Crowder paced the team with a 39.4 percent target share (13 of 33) and caught seven for 115 yards and a TD. Crowder led the team with 122 targets a season ago (26 more than any other player). A full 27 of those targets came in two games against the Bills, giving him 29 catches on 40 targets for 180 yards and two TDs in his last three outings vs. Buffalo. Swoop him up if he’s still available in your league.

Fantasy Market Report: Week 1

Fantasy football player trends and stock updates entering Week 1.

Every NFL season brings a sense of buildup and excitement from the draft to training camp to the preseason – all a prelude to when winning and losing counts. However, as with the rest of our lives in many respects, the COVID-19 pandemic has already created scenarios many deemed to be impossible.

Sports have been forced to adapt and change to the “new normal.” The NBA and NHL put their seasons on hold for five months and Major League Baseball was forced to eliminate 100 games just to get the 2020 season in.

What makes the NFL unique is that it can’t have a scenario under which a team gets shut down if there is an in-house outbreak. In baseball, you can make up games missed by playing doubleheaders. In the NFL, that isn’t possible. You can’t have teams playing four games in two weeks to get caught up. If one team is ravaged with positive COVID-19 tests, the game will still continue unless the NFL opts for a league-wide shutdown for two weeks or so to let the virus clear.

There are far more unknowns going into the 2020 season than we have ever seen at the start of a season. There are some who believe we will see a full season play out, while others are just as convinced the hurdles facing the NFL will result in a stoppage at some point or teams being without some of the star players for extended periods outside of the typical injuries suffered.

A week from now, we will have a much better handle on the status of in-team competitions for playing time, but one thing is certain – 2020 is going to be a season the likes of which the NFL has never experienced.

Here is the pre-start of the season Fantasy Market Report for Week 1. Once we start seeing how rosters shake out once games begin, we will move forward as normal with the FMR determining whose stock is rising and falling.

Fantasy football risers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy players – Tampa Bay already had quality fantasy talent in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom have been solid fantasy producers – but the addition of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette and Rob Gronkowski suddenly makes this offense look as daunting as just about anyone in the league. But, many were saying the same about Cleveland last year, and we know how that turned out.

Young running backs – There were some surprises when running backs started popping off the draft board in April, as draftees were coming to teams that already had an established running back expected to be the featured back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Cam Akers (Rams), D’Andre Swift (Lions), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), A.J. Dillon (Packers), J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) and Zack Moss (Bills) are all earning buzz that not only will they have a prominent role in their respective offenses, most of them could end up being the lead dog by season’s end. It’s been some time since so many rookies have been viewed as potential featured backs in their rookie season.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – Last year, most fantasy projections had Murray as a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback and he resembled that remark. He was 15th in passing yards and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns. What got him into fantasy lineups was that he was second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and scored four rushing touchdowns. As with the last two MVPs – Patrick Mahomes and Jackson – entering his second season, huge things are expected from Murray and he currently sits as a top-five QB in many rankings. If history repeats itself, he will worth that dice roll on greatness.

Roster diversity – As noted earlier, COVID-19 is going to create a strange new world in the NFL. If a team has numerous players test positive, the show must go on and it will create problems for fantasy owners if some of their star players are suddenly down for two weeks or more. As a result, fantasy owners are being advised to diversify their rosters as much as possible. The days of matching up a quarterback and his top receiver are temporarily on hold, making it an ideal time for owners to get as many players from different teams as possible simply to cover their own backs.

Tight ends – There have been times when only a couple tight ends were deemed must-start fantasy players. For a time, those two were Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. Later it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. With the changing dynamic of NFL passing games, you have a solid top five tight ends – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller – not to mention a slew of young talents looking to join their ranks, including Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst and Irv Smith, to name a few. As the game changes, it is a great time to be a tight end with downfield ability.

Fantasy football fallers

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Just a couple of years ago, Rodgers was viewed as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Now, he can be had as a backup QB in just about every league regardless of size. The conventional wisdom was that, in the deepest wide receiver draft class in 20 years, the Packers would use a premium pick on a wide receiver to groom opposite Davante Adams. Instead, the Packers drafted Rodgers eventual replacement (Jordan Love) in the first round, added a running back in the second round (A.J. Dillon) and, despite having nine picks, didn’t use any on wide receivers. You’re on your own, A-Rod.

Old running backs – Running back remains the focus of the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts and the big money in auctions, but being a running back over 30 is a death sentence. Three Hall of Famers are still in the league, but are being buried. Adrian Peterson is now with Detroit – his fifth team in five years. Frank Gore is with the Jets – his fourth team in four years. LeSean McCoy is with Tampa Bay – his third team in three years. None are ready to get their Hall of Fame clock activated, but their short shelf life with teams may end up starting it for them.

New England Patriots fantasy players – Not too long ago, Patriots fantasy players were selected en masse and often taken early when positions started getting picked over. With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski gone, Cam Newton is going extremely late (if at all) in drafts and auctions, the backfield-by-committee waters down the value of all their running backs and Julian Edelman is the only receiver getting any attention and that isn’t until the late rounds. Even their kicker has been devalued. This will be a big test for Bill Belichick because the fantasy stock of Patriots has taken a giant hit.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – Heading into 2019, Mayfield was the hottest rising property in the fantasy world. The addition of Odell Beckham gave the Browns offense talent across the board and Mayfield was expected to take the next step as a QB. Instead, the Browns fell flat and much of the blame was placed at the feet of Mayfield. As he enters 2020, he is in a watershed season that, if things go south again, could get the Browns to look in another direction after the season.

New coaching staffs – Fans may not realize how much repetition goes into an offseason program. Coaches work their players in practices, OTAs, training camp and the preseason. All of those were altered or eliminated by COVID-19. For teams with a veteran coaching staff, it wasn’t as impactful, because of the familiarity between coaches and players. For new coaches, however, the pandemic robbed them of the opportunity to get in the reps needed from May to August to properly evaluate their players. That lack of hands-on work could adversely impact fantasy players from those teams early in the season, making those players a much bigger risk to have in your fantasy lineup the first month of the season.