Category: Fantasy football draft strategy tips and advice

Fantasy Football Strategy: How to win your Best Ball league

Fantasy football best ball leagues offer invaluable practice, a fun challenge and a new way to enjoy the hobby. But this style of play involves different strategies to build an optimal roster.

One of the best developments in the fantasy football world was the introduction of “Best Ball” fantasy football leagues where a roster is drafted, and then the software automatically fills the weekly starting  lineup with the highest-scoring players. No maintenance, no free agent worries – just draft your fantasy football team and watch how it plays out in the standings during the course of the season.

Best ball fantasy football leagues offer the same “practice” as a  mock draft, only with more serious team owners who have paid $5 to $20 (or more) to participate. These  drafts mirror what will happen in your regular leagues so it is a great way to get a feel for how players are being drafted. But this different flavor of fantasy football prompts different strategies in building a team and even more so in the later rounds.

Let’s break down the positions to see how the strategy might change from what makes sense in a redraft, single-season, fantasy football league.

How to draft your best ball fantasy football team

Quarterbacks – The position serves up high-scoring players in all leagues, though the point difference may not be that great from, say, the third to the tenth quarterback. That prompts drafters to either bite the bullet and take Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the first few rounds or waiting until mid-draft to begrudgingly select a quarterback who can still qualify as “good enough.”

But the reality is that owning a top-scoring quarterback prevents the need to select from two similar players every week. If you own Mahomes, he starts in Week 1 and that never changes. Owning two middle-tier quarterbacks like Matt Stafford and Kirk Cousins means you have to guess who to start each week, and sometimes you will be wrong. Not so in Best Ball. Owning a top quarterback means a constant stream of good performances. But – if you get two or even three quarterbacks from the middle of the draft, getting the best score from the three each week just might be even more than a Mahomes or Allen. Plus, your team doesn’t suffer when one quarterback is injured.

Running Backs – It doesn’t matter what style of fantasy football you play. Running backs are always much-coveted. Owning three “starter-quality” backs is a great advantage depending on what else you gave up to get that. The biggest difference that the position has in Best Ball is that it can make even more sense to steal the backups from other fantasy team owners. Last year, only four of the Top-20 running backs played all 16 games. Even if only for a week or three, backups can contribute to your team.

Another strategy that works regardless of league style is to own at least one third-down back. The likes of Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic, or Boston Scott won’t win your league, but they are injured less often and turn in moderate points every week. Ditto for the second back in a backfield committee like Gus Edwards, Malcolm Brown, AJ Dillon, and Kareem Hunt.

Wide Receivers – This is a position that can be treated much differently with good results. Rostering an elite wideout or two is a huge benefit no matter what league style is used, but mostly because you don’t have to worry about selecting the three best receivers from the six on your roster every week. Owning half a dozen moderately-talented wideouts can be a weekly headache in standard league play. In fantasy football Best Ball format, it can be a blessing.

Since the top scorers automatically start each week, there is no such thing as too many middle-tier wideouts. And once the draft reaches the final rounds and all the consistently productive receivers are long gone, there is still value to grab. Look for the No. 3 wideouts that may only have three to five notable games a year. They will count for you, and none of their duds go against you. Guys like Quez Watkins, Darius Slayton, Michael Gallup, and Gabriel Davis can be hard to get right each week, but in Best Ball they will help and yet never hurt.

If you never drafted a rookie wideout in regular league play, it wouldn’t hurt your team. In Best Ball, they can shine because their handful of great games benefit you and their flops are ignored. Rashod Bateman, Ronald Moore, Terrace Marshall, Elijah Moore, and Amon St. Brown offer much more in a Best Ball league format. Better yet, rookies typically improve as the season progresses.

Tight Ends – This is the one position that doesn’t play out much differently than it does in standard league play. The reality is that there are an elite three tight ends every year, and then about three more with potential upside. And then there is the vast, unwashed horde of other tight ends. With wide receivers, you can cobble together an ever-changing set of moderately productive players that can compete against other teams with one or two elite wideouts.

In Best Ball fantasy football, you cannot find any two or three average tight ends that will combine to match what Travis Kelce or Darren Waller produce in any week. It pays to own a Top-3 tight end, or at least two others still in the Top-10 for the position because the production is so notoriously low for almost all other tight ends.

Kickers – You’ll need two, and there is no rush. Even less so in this format that will pick the top score from either of your kickers. Don’t overspend on this position.

Defenses – Given the year-to-year variation in the rankings for defenses, there isn’t any need to get one early here. Almost all leagues use fantasy scoring rules that yield only a marginal difference between defenses. Grab two, make them in the Top-16 of the position, and you’ve done all you can.

2021 Fantasy Football Tips and Trends

Tips and Trends from 2021

It is never too early – or late – to prepare for your fantasy draft. This year still contends with COVID-19, but the NFL made it through 2020 without missing a game, so expect it to be a non-factor again. Every season has changes that impact fantasy football and a unique set of trends that can help make a roadmap to a success fantasy draft.

Tips for the season

  1. Back up your running backs. Last season, the Top-24 fantasy backs only included four that played in all 16 games, and three of those were No. 2 on their own team. A full dozen missed at least two games, and that’s from the highest scorers in the position.
  2. Running backs and wide receivers dominate the first eight rounds. The decision you must make in advance is when to take your first quarterback and tight end.
  3. Unless your league allows starting two quarterbacks, there is usually no real benefit in burning any of your first four or five picks on the position. It looks good at the time, but you pay the price by delaying other positions that experience a steeper decline in value than quarterbacks.
  4. Tight ends are the lowest scoring fantasy position and can wait until mid-draft. However, if your league awards reception points, the Top-3 tight ends can offer a significant benefit. Finding a difference-making tight end from later in the draft is almost impossible. Not so for all other positions.
  5. Kickers and defenses are notoriously difficult to predict and taking them in the final rounds of the draft is very common. However, owning one of the elites from either position can offer a small advantage and moving up each a full round than normal doesn’t hurt. Do you really expect to use your seventh wideout? You realize he’s the first cut when you visit the waiver wire after Week 1.
  6. Watch your bye weeks when you draft. This year there are six teams on their bye in Week 7 – Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, and Steelers. The Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles are off during Week 14 when some leagues and contests are starting their playoffs.

Reliable trends

While each fantasy league is unique, many trends are common in fantasy drafts. And that helps to formulate a rough plan of when to take different positions.

Quarterbacks – In leagues where you only start one, there is significant consistency in how they are drafted. Expect Patrick Mahomes to be a third-round pick. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson are taken, in that order, over the next two rounds. The rest of them end up going in the seventh to eleventh rounds with large variation from league to league. Rookie quarterbacks like Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have been rising on draft boards all summer.

Running Backs – The NFL may be a “passing league,” but fantasy drafts don’t care. Running backs can take up eight or even ten of the first twelve picks. About 20 are gone before the fourth round, where player risk starts to ramp up, and the likely reward has a steeper decline. The safest play is to own two running backs after your first three picks. Most will follow that plan.  There are still plenty of rushers with upside to exceed expectations through the eighth round, but you need to be good or lucky to land the right ones. Rookie running backs always spawn optimism, and Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, Trey Sermon, and Michael Carter offer the spicy tang of “you never really know.” And that drives up their draft stock, so don’t wait if you want one.

Drafters have downgraded last year’s rookies other than Jonathan Taylor. Considering there was no preseason and plenty of team injuries, players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins merit a mulligan and are better values. Cam Akers has sadly already proven why drafting the backups for your top backs is prudent.

Wide Receivers – Thanks to the running back frenzy in the early rounds, there is great value in the position that usually takes three full rounds to see the Top-12 be selected. The first dozen running backs rarely last to the middle of the second round. You should gather at least two over the first six rounds, and there is tremendous value early on if you are good enough to wait on running backs. Teams that draft near the end of the first round often scoops up two elite wideouts to start and then mine for running backs for the next few rounds.

The most generic – and safest – plan is to end up with two running backs and two wideouts by your fourth pick. In the fourth round, you can still access  Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones and the like. While eight or more rookie receivers end up drafted, the expectation is that they won’t offer as much as in other years. Ja’Marr Chase usually leads the pack in the sixth round, then Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith show up around the ninth or tenth round as fantasy backups. All others are just deep roster fodder.

Tight Ends – Travis Kelce is a first-round pick after dominating the NFL for four seasons in a position that offers so few difference-makers.  There are only around three tight ends that offer an advantage each season and that means that Darren Waller goes in the second round and George Kittle lands in the late third or early fourth after his injurious season in 2020. That’s not to say the rest have no fantasy value, but the likelihood that they will compete with your other starters as contributors becomes much lower.

Expect that T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and the rookie Kyle Pitts are gone by the sixth round after rosters have filled up on running backs and receivers and are looking for value in tight end. If you miss out on those, wait until the ninth round where you can grab Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan, or Thomas Logan.

 

Fantasy football mock draft series: August takeaways

A mock draft review from a recent August gathering of professionals.

The fantasy football mock draft review for August is here, and we get a great comparison to July, with 11 of the 12 drafters being the same in each one.

We previously analyzed May and June with a different team of participants. For privacy of the upcoming publication that will include this draft, all team names and participants have been omitted.

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Before getting into my individual picks, here are a few positional observations from this traditional 12-team, PPR draft.

  • Like in the June and July drafts, Patrick Mahomes was a third-round pick. He went 31st last month and 33rd in this draft. Mahomes and Josh Allen were the only two quarterbacks to go in the first four rounds in consecutive months, although we witnessed a pair of QBs come off the board in the first three picks of Round 5 of August’s draft. Eleven passers went in the first 100 picks last month. This time around, 10 QBs were chosen.
  • Nine of the Round 1 choices were running backs in both July and August. The position represented 14 of the first 24 chosen players — also the same as July. Among the first 100 picks, 38 running backs came off the board, down two from last month.
  • Wide receiver claimed 43 of the first 100 selections, also two fewer from July. Once again, among the 24 choices in Rounds 2 and 3, half went to the position.
  • Eight tight ends were chosen in the first 100 picks (Irv Smith Jr. was No. 101), and only two of them came off the board in the first 36 selections — a jump of seven spots for George Kittle (37th) in this draft.

Below is a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks from both the July and August drafts, including the change by round and overall.

June draft results Au draft results Change +/-
Rnd QB RB WR TE Rnd QB RB WR TE QB RB WR TE
1 0 9 2 1 1 0 9 2 1 0 0 0 0
2 0 5 6 1 2 0 5 6 1 0 0 0 0
3 1 5 6 0 3 1 4 7 0 0 -1 1 0
4 1 5 5 1 4 1 2 7 2 0 -3 2 1
5 2 2 8 0 5 2 6 4 0 0 4 -4 0
6 2 3 3 4 6 1 5 4 2 -1 2 1 -2
7 2 7 3 0 7 4 2 5 1 2 -5 2 1
8 2 3 6 1 8 1 4 5 2 -1 1 -1 1
9 3 4 4 1 9 1 4 5 2 -2 0 1 1
10 1 0 8 3 10 1 4 7 0 0 4 -1 -3
Total 14 43 51 12 Total 12 45 52 11 -2 2 1 -1

As you can see, the first two rounds were identical for positional distribution. The third round mostly was the same, but once we made our way into Round 4, running backs took a hit. It didn’t last long, though, with four more backs going in the fifth than the July version. Overall, the positional variation was negligible. Quarterbacks regressed slightly in favor of running backs — really nothing of consequence to glean on the whole. It suggests you can wait a little longer on QBs, if nothing else.

Round-by-round picks

# Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter # Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter
1 1.1 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB Team 1 97 9.1 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR Team 1
2 1.2 Dalvin Cook MIN RB Team 2 98 9.2 DeVante Parker MIA WR Team 2
3 1.3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB Team 3 99 9.3 Nyheim Hines IND RB Team 3
4 1.4 Derrick Henry TEN RB Team 4 100 9.4 Antonio Brown TB WR Team 4
5 1.5 Alvin Kamara NO RB Team 5 101 9.5 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE Team 5
6 1.6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB Team 6 102 9.6 Gus Edwards BAL RB Team 6
7 1.7 Aaron Jones GB RB Team 7 103 9.7 Ronald Jones II TB RB Team 7
8 1.8 Travis Kelce KC TE Team 8 104 9.8 AJ Dillon GB RB Team 8
9 1.9 Jonathan Taylor IND RB Team 9 105 9.9 Dallas Goedert PHI TE Team 9
10 1.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB Team 10 106 9.10 Curtis Samuel WAS WR Team 10
11 1.11 Davante Adams GB WR Team 11 107 9.11 Jarvis Landry CLE WR Team 11
12 1.12 Tyreek Hill KC WR Team 12 108 9.12 Matt Ryan ATL QB Team 12
13 2.1 Stefon Diggs BUF WR Team 12 109 10.1 Jamaal Williams DET RB Team 12
14 2.2 Joe Mixon CIN RB Team 11 110 10.2 Tony Pollard DAL RB Team 11
15 2.3 Nick Chubb CLE RB Team 10 111 10.3 Will Fuller MIA WR Team 10
16 2.4 Antonio Gibson WAS RB Team 9 112 10.4 Darnell Mooney CHI WR Team 9
17 2.5 Najee Harris PIT RB Team 8 113 10.5 Jalen Hurts PHI QB Team 8
18 2.6 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR Team 7 114 10.6 Marquise Brown BAL WR Team 7
19 2.7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR Team 6 115 10.7 Corey Davis NYJ WR Team 6
20 2.8 Calvin Ridley ATL WR Team 5 116 10.8 Phillip Lindsay HOU RB Team 5
21 2.9 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB Team 4 117 10.9 Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR Team 4
22 2.10 Darren Waller LV TE Team 3 118 10.10 Marvin Jones JAX WR Team 3
23 2.11 A.J. Brown TEN WR Team 2 119 10.11 Sterling Shepard NYG WR Team 2
24 2.12 Justin Jefferson MIN WR Team 1 120 10.12 David Johnson HOU RB Team 1
25 3.1 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB Team 1 121 11.1 Henry Ruggs III LV WR Team 1
26 3.2 Chris Carson SEA RB Team 2 122 11.2 Tevin Coleman NYJ RB Team 2
27 3.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB Team 3 123 11.3 Mike Williams LAC WR Team 3
28 3.4 Keenan Allen LAC WR Team 4 124 11.4 Kenyan Drake LV RB Team 4
29 3.5 Chris Godwin TB WR Team 5 125 11.5 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB Team 5
30 3.6 Terry McLaurin WAS WR Team 6 126 11.6 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB Team 6
31 3.7 Mike Evans TB WR Team 7 127 11.7 Cole Beasley BUF WR Team 7
32 3.8 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR Team 8 128 11.8 Elijah Moore NYJ WR Team 8
33 3.9 Patrick Mahomes KC QB Team 9 129 11.9 Tyler Higbee LAR TE Team 9
34 3.10 Allen Robinson CHI WR Team 10 130 11.10 J.D. McKissic WAS RB Team 10
35 3.11 Robert Woods LAR WR Team 11 131 11.11 Mecole Hardman KC WR Team 11
36 3.12 David Montgomery CHI RB Team 12 132 11.12 Joe Burrow CIN QB Team 12
37 4.1 George Kittle SF TE Team 12 133 12.1 Mike Gesicki MIA TE Team 12
38 4.2 Amari Cooper DAL WR Team 11 134 12.2 Trey Lance SF QB Team 11
39 4.3 Cooper Kupp LAR WR Team 10 135 12.3 Hunter Henry NE TE Team 10
40 4.4 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR Team 9 136 12.4 Kirk Cousins MIN QB Team 9
41 4.5 Tyler Lockett SEA WR Team 8 137 12.5 Justin Fields CHI QB Team 8
42 4.6 Josh Jacobs LV RB Team 7 138 12.6 Russell Gage ATL WR Team 7
43 4.7 Julio Jones TEN WR Team 6 139 12.7 Nelson Agholor NE WR Team 6
44 4.8 Josh Allen BUF QB Team 5 140 12.8 Los Angeles Rams LAR Def/ST Team 5
45 4.9 T.J. Hockenson DET TE Team 4 141 12.9 Trevor Lawrence JAX QB Team 4
46 4.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR Team 3 142 12.10 T Y Hilton IND WR Team 3
47 4.11 D’Andre Swift DET RB Team 2 143 12.11 Latavius Murray NO RB Team 2
48 4.12 D.J. Moore CAR WR Team 1 144 12.12 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB Team 1
49 5.1 Kyler Murray ARI QB Team 1 145 13.1 Evan Engram NYG TE Team 1
50 5.2 Kenny Golladay NYG WR Team 2 146 13.2 Jonnu Smith NE TE Team 2
51 5.3 Dak Prescott DAL QB Team 3 147 13.3 Derek Carr LV QB Team 3
52 5.4 Diontae Johnson PIT WR Team 4 148 13.4 Alexander Mattison MIN RB Team 4
53 5.5 Darrell Henderson LAR RB Team 5 149 13.5 Tre’Quan Smith NO WR Team 5
54 5.6 Chase Edmonds ARI RB Team 6 150 13.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB Def/ST Team 6
55 5.7 Myles Gaskin MIA RB Team 7 151 13.7 Jared Cook LAC TE Team 7
56 5.8 Adam Thielen MIN WR Team 8 152 13.8 James White NE RB Team 8
57 5.9 Tee Higgins CIN WR Team 9 153 13.9 Christian Kirk ARI WR Team 9
58 5.10 Mike Davis ATL RB Team 10 154 13.10 Washington FB Team WAS Def/ST Team 10
59 5.11 Kareem Hunt CLE RB Team 11 155 13.11 Rashaad Penny SEA RB Team 11
60 5.12 Travis Etienne JAX RB Team 12 156 13.12 Justin Tucker BAL K Team 12
61 6.1 Javonte Williams DEN RB Team 12 157 14.1 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT Def/ST Team 12
62 6.2 Kyle Pitts ATL TE Team 11 158 14.2 Baltimore Ravens BAL Def/ST Team 11
63 6.3 Mark Andrews BAL TE Team 10 159 14.3 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB Team 10
64 6.4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Team 9 160 14.4 Boston Scott PHI RB Team 9
65 6.5 Chase Claypool PIT WR Team 8 161 14.5 Damien Williams CHI RB Team 8
66 6.6 Michael Thomas NO WR Team 7 162 14.6 Anthony Firkser TEN TE Team 7
67 6.7 James Robinson JAX RB Team 6 163 14.7 Harrison Butker KC K Team 6
68 6.8 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR Team 5 164 14.8 Jalen Reagor PHI WR Team 5
69 6.9 Trey Sermon SF RB Team 4 165 14.9 Javian Hawkins ATL RB Team 4
70 6.10 Damien Harris NE RB Team 3 166 14.10 Gerald Everett SEA TE Team 3
71 6.11 Russell Wilson SEA QB Team 2 167 14.11 Devontae Booker NYG RB Team 2
72 6.12 Michael Carter NYJ RB Team 1 168 14.12 San Francisco 49ers SF Def/ST Team 1
73 7.1 Deebo Samuel SF WR Team 1 169 15.1 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR Team 1
74 7.2 Noah Fant DEN TE Team 2 170 15.2 Tyler Bass BUF K Team 2
75 7.3 Brandin Cooks HOU WR Team 3 171 15.3 New England Patriots NE Def/ST Team 3
76 7.4 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR Team 4 172 15.4 Buffalo Bills BUF Def/ST Team 4
77 7.5 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR Team 5 173 15.5 Adam Trautman NO TE Team 5
78 7.6 Aaron Rodgers GB QB Team 6 174 15.6 Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR Team 6
79 7.7 Lamar Jackson BAL QB Team 7 175 15.7 Younghoe Koo ATL K Team 7
80 7.8 Raheem Mostert SF RB Team 8 176 15.8 Indianapolis Colts IND Def/ST Team 8
81 7.9 Melvin Gordon DEN RB Team 9 177 15.9 Jason Sanders MIA K Team 9
82 7.10 Justin Herbert LAC QB Team 10 178 15.10 Ryan Succop TB K Team 10
83 7.11 Tom Brady TB QB Team 11 179 15.11 Sammy Watkins BAL WR Team 11
84 7.12 D.J. Chark JAX WR Team 12 180 15.12 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB Team 12
85 8.1 DeVonta Smith PHI WR Team 12 181 16.1 Rondale Moore ARI WR Team 12
86 8.2 Zack Moss BUF RB Team 11 182 16.2 Greg Zuerlein DAL K Team 11
87 8.3 Robby Anderson CAR WR Team 10 183 16.3 Austin Hooper CLE TE Team 10
88 8.4 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR Team 9 184 16.4 Kansas City Chiefs KC Def/ST Team 9
89 8.5 Tyler Boyd CIN WR Team 8 185 16.5 Matt Prater ARI K Team 8
90 8.6 Leonard Fournette TB RB Team 7 186 16.6 Miami Dolphins MIA Def/ST Team 7
91 8.7 Robert Tonyan GB TE Team 6 187 16.7 Deshaun Watson HOU QB Team 6
92 8.8 Devin Singletary BUF RB Team 5 188 16.8 Rodrigo Blankenship IND K Team 5
93 8.9 Matthew Stafford LAR QB Team 4 189 16.9 Daniel Carlson LV K Team 4
94 8.10 James Conner ARI RB Team 3 190 16.10 Joey Slye CAR K Team 3
95 8.11 Michael Gallup DAL WR Team 2 191 16.11 Denver Broncos DEN Def/ST Team 2
96 8.12 Logan Thomas WAS TE Team 1 192 16.12 Mason Crosby GB K Team 1

Results by position

Pos rank Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter Pos rank Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter
1 3.9 Patrick Mahomes KC QB Team 9 1 1.11 Davante Adams GB WR Team 11
2 4.8 Josh Allen BUF QB Team 5 2 1.12 Tyreek Hill KC WR Team 12
3 5.1 Kyler Murray ARI QB Team 1 3 2.1 Stefon Diggs BUF WR Team 12
4 5.3 Dak Prescott DAL QB Team 3 4 2.6 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR Team 7
5 6.11 Russell Wilson SEA QB Team 2 5 2.7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR Team 6
6 7.6 Aaron Rodgers GB QB Team 6 6 2.8 Calvin Ridley ATL WR Team 5
7 7.7 Lamar Jackson BAL QB Team 7 7 2.11 A.J. Brown TEN WR Team 2
8 7.10 Justin Herbert LAC QB Team 10 8 2.12 Justin Jefferson MIN WR Team 1
9 7.11 Tom Brady TB QB Team 11 9 3.4 Keenan Allen LAC WR Team 4
10 8.9 Matthew Stafford LAR QB Team 4 10 3.5 Chris Godwin TB WR Team 5
11 9.12 Matt Ryan ATL QB Team 12 11 3.6 Terry McLaurin WAS WR Team 6
12 10.5 Jalen Hurts PHI QB Team 8 12 3.7 Mike Evans TB WR Team 7
13 11.5 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB Team 5 13 3.8 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR Team 8
14 11.12 Joe Burrow CIN QB Team 12 14 3.10 Allen Robinson CHI WR Team 10
15 12.2 Trey Lance SF QB Team 11 15 3.11 Robert Woods LAR WR Team 11
16 12.4 Kirk Cousins MIN QB Team 9 16 4.2 Amari Cooper DAL WR Team 11
17 12.5 Justin Fields CHI QB Team 8 17 4.3 Cooper Kupp LAR WR Team 10
18 12.9 Trevor Lawrence JAX QB Team 4 18 4.4 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR Team 9
19 12.12 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB Team 1 19 4.5 Tyler Lockett SEA WR Team 8
20 13.3 Derek Carr LV QB Team 3 20 4.7 Julio Jones TEN WR Team 6
21 14.3 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB Team 10 21 4.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR Team 3
22 16.7 Deshaun Watson HOU QB Team 6 22 4.12 D.J. Moore CAR WR Team 1
1 1.1 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB Team 1 23 5.2 Kenny Golladay NYG WR Team 2
2 1.2 Dalvin Cook MIN RB Team 2 24 5.4 Diontae Johnson PIT WR Team 4
3 1.3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB Team 3 25 5.8 Adam Thielen MIN WR Team 8
4 1.4 Derrick Henry TEN RB Team 4 26 5.9 Tee Higgins CIN WR Team 9
5 1.5 Alvin Kamara NO RB Team 5 27 6.4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Team 9
6 1.6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB Team 6 28 6.5 Chase Claypool PIT WR Team 8
7 1.7 Aaron Jones GB RB Team 7 29 6.6 Michael Thomas NO WR Team 7
8 1.9 Jonathan Taylor IND RB Team 9 30 6.8 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR Team 5
9 1.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB Team 10 31 7.1 Deebo Samuel SF WR Team 1
10 2.2 Joe Mixon CIN RB Team 11 32 7.3 Brandin Cooks HOU WR Team 3
11 2.3 Nick Chubb CLE RB Team 10 33 7.4 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR Team 4
12 2.4 Antonio Gibson WAS RB Team 9 34 7.5 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR Team 5
13 2.5 Najee Harris PIT RB Team 8 35 7.12 D.J. Chark JAX WR Team 12
14 2.9 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB Team 4 36 8.1 DeVonta Smith PHI WR Team 12
15 3.1 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB Team 1 37 8.3 Robby Anderson CAR WR Team 10
16 3.2 Chris Carson SEA RB Team 2 38 8.4 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR Team 9
17 3.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB Team 3 39 8.5 Tyler Boyd CIN WR Team 8
18 3.12 David Montgomery CHI RB Team 12 40 8.11 Michael Gallup DAL WR Team 2
19 4.6 Josh Jacobs LV RB Team 7 41 9.1 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR Team 1
20 4.11 D’Andre Swift DET RB Team 2 42 9.2 DeVante Parker MIA WR Team 2
21 5.5 Darrell Henderson LAR RB Team 5 43 9.4 Antonio Brown TB WR Team 4
22 5.6 Chase Edmonds ARI RB Team 6 44 9.10 Curtis Samuel WAS WR Team 10
23 5.7 Myles Gaskin MIA RB Team 7 45 9.11 Jarvis Landry CLE WR Team 11
24 5.10 Mike Davis ATL RB Team 10 46 10.3 Will Fuller MIA WR Team 10
25 5.11 Kareem Hunt CLE RB Team 11 47 10.4 Darnell Mooney CHI WR Team 9
26 5.12 Travis Etienne JAX RB Team 12 48 10.6 Marquise Brown BAL WR Team 7
27 6.1 Javonte Williams DEN RB Team 12 49 10.7 Corey Davis NYJ WR Team 6
28 6.7 James Robinson JAX RB Team 6 50 10.9 Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR Team 4
29 6.9 Trey Sermon SF RB Team 4 51 10.10 Marvin Jones JAX WR Team 3
30 6.10 Damien Harris NE RB Team 3 52 10.11 Sterling Shepard NYG WR Team 2
31 6.12 Michael Carter NYJ RB Team 1 53 11.1 Henry Ruggs III LV WR Team 1
32 7.8 Raheem Mostert SF RB Team 8 54 11.3 Mike Williams LAC WR Team 3
33 7.9 Melvin Gordon DEN RB Team 9 55 11.7 Cole Beasley BUF WR Team 7
34 8.2 Zack Moss BUF RB Team 11 56 11.8 Elijah Moore NYJ WR Team 8
35 8.6 Leonard Fournette TB RB Team 7 57 11.11 Mecole Hardman KC WR Team 11
36 8.8 Devin Singletary BUF RB Team 5 58 12.6 Russell Gage ATL WR Team 7
37 8.10 James Conner ARI RB Team 3 59 12.7 Nelson Agholor NE WR Team 6
38 9.3 Nyheim Hines IND RB Team 3 60 12.10 T Y Hilton IND WR Team 3
39 9.6 Gus Edwards BAL RB Team 6 61 13.5 Tre’Quan Smith NO WR Team 5
40 9.7 Ronald Jones II TB RB Team 7 62 13.9 Christian Kirk ARI WR Team 9
41 9.8 AJ Dillon GB RB Team 8 63 14.8 Jalen Reagor PHI WR Team 5
42 10.1 Jamaal Williams DET RB Team 12 64 15.1 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR Team 1
43 10.2 Tony Pollard DAL RB Team 11 65 15.6 Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR Team 6
44 10.8 Phillip Lindsay HOU RB Team 5 66 15.11 Sammy Watkins BAL WR Team 11
45 10.12 David Johnson HOU RB Team 1 67 16.1 Rondale Moore ARI WR Team 12
46 11.2 Tevin Coleman NYJ RB Team 2 1 13.12 Justin Tucker BAL K Team 12
47 11.4 Kenyan Drake LV RB Team 4 2 14.7 Harrison Butker KC K Team 6
48 11.6 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB Team 6 3 15.2 Tyler Bass BUF K Team 2
49 11.10 J.D. McKissic WAS RB Team 10 4 15.7 Younghoe Koo ATL K Team 7
50 12.11 Latavius Murray NO RB Team 2 5 15.9 Jason Sanders MIA K Team 9
51 13.4 Alexander Mattison MIN RB Team 4 6 15.10 Ryan Succop TB K Team 10
52 13.8 James White NE RB Team 8 7 16.2 Greg Zuerlein DAL K Team 11
53 13.11 Rashaad Penny SEA RB Team 11 8 16.5 Matt Prater ARI K Team 8
54 14.4 Boston Scott PHI RB Team 9 9 16.8 Rodrigo Blankenship IND K Team 5
55 14.5 Damien Williams CHI RB Team 8 10 16.9 Daniel Carlson LV K Team 4
56 14.9 Javian Hawkins ATL RB Team 4 11 16.10 Joey Slye CAR K Team 3
57 14.11 Devontae Booker NYG RB Team 2 12 16.12 Mason Crosby GB K Team 1
58 15.12 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB Team 12 1 12.8 Los Angeles Rams LAR Def/ST Team 5
1 1.8 Travis Kelce KC TE Team 8 2 13.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB Def/ST Team 6
2 2.10 Darren Waller LV TE Team 3 3 13.10 Washington FB Team WAS Def/ST Team 10
3 4.1 George Kittle SF TE Team 12 4 14.1 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT Def/ST Team 12
4 4.9 T.J. Hockenson DET TE Team 4 5 14.2 Baltimore Ravens BAL Def/ST Team 11
5 6.2 Kyle Pitts ATL TE Team 11 6 14.12 San Francisco 49ers SF Def/ST Team 1
6 6.3 Mark Andrews BAL TE Team 10 7 15.3 New England Patriots NE Def/ST Team 3
7 7.2 Noah Fant DEN TE Team 2 8 15.4 Buffalo Bills BUF Def/ST Team 4
8 8.7 Robert Tonyan GB TE Team 6 9 15.8 Indianapolis Colts IND Def/ST Team 8
9 8.12 Logan Thomas WAS TE Team 1 10 16.4 Kansas City Chiefs KC Def/ST Team 9
10 9.5 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE Team 5 11 16.6 Miami Dolphins MIA Def/ST Team 7
11 9.9 Dallas Goedert PHI TE Team 9 12 16.11 Denver Broncos DEN Def/ST Team 2
12 11.9 Tyler Higbee LAR TE Team 9
13 12.1 Mike Gesicki MIA TE Team 12
14 12.3 Hunter Henry NE TE Team 10
15 13.1 Evan Engram NYG TE Team 1
16 13.2 Jonnu Smith NE TE Team 2
17 13.7 Jared Cook LAC TE Team 7
18 14.6 Anthony Firkser TEN TE Team 7
19 14.10 Gerald Everett SEA TE Team 3
20 15.5 Adam Trautman NO TE Team 5
21 16.3 Austin Hooper CLE TE Team 10

My team

1:04) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: At No. 4, I was fully expecting to take Ezekiel Elliott, so King Henry was a pleasant surprise. He will see a significant statistical decline from last year’s ridiculous numbers, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t fully worthy of the No. 4 selection. It is, though, a reason why I went deeper at RB than usual in a draft of this size.

2:09) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: CEH was a darling last year and didn’t quite get it clicking as most had hoped to see. In 2021, with another year of learning and a more practical offseason program to aid his maturation, Edwards-Helaire has low-end RB1 upside. Nice value here, if I do say so myself.

3:04) WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: Basically a lock to near 100 receptions, Allen is a PPR powerhouse and should once again thrive. Quarterback Justin Herbert has benefited from more time to polish his skills and knowledge of the game, making his top receiver a safe buy as my lead guy.

4:09) TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: While Hockenson may have been a touch on the early side here, I wasn’t enamored with any of the options at wide receiver and was already off to a strong start at RB. I pivoted in a way not normal to my drafting preferences and chose the tight end — effectively Detroit’s No. 1 receiver — and decided to punt on the position the rest of the way.

5:04) WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Landing Hock a round ago actually worked out pretty well. Johnson is an ascending talent in an offense that should keep him plenty busy underneath. He rarely will see double-teams, and I strongly believe we didn’t see his ceiling last year.

6:09) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers: There is no running back I rather gamble on in 2021 drafts than the rookie. I’m not convinced Raheem Mostert will be even the “1a” of the backfield, and his durability concerns could make Sermon as close to a workhorse as possible in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

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7:04) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: I’ve been lukewarm on Chase’s draft placement much of the offseason, so this choice was a slight gamble on his chemistry with Joe Burrow. I have stability with Allen as my WR1 and a player whose weekly returns may wildly fluctuate with Johnson as my second. Chase could bring that “wow” factor to my receiving corps, although it means wideout depth must remain a focus over the next few rounds.

8:09) QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: The weaponry and system are in place for Stafford to be dominant. Even though Round 8 may be a hair on the early side for my usual QB-drafting tastes, I wasn’t going to miss out on him after nine other QBs had been chosen.

9:04) WR Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Still not terribly satisfied with my receivers and seeing a reasonable number of remaining RB4 targets on the board, AB is an intriguing risk-reward option. There’s clearly a chemistry between he and Tom Brady, and the veteran receiver was on pace for 90 grabs a year ago after having to come in cold from a lengthy layoff. I tend to prefer him in best-ball formats, but Brown would be a strong starter if something were to happen to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

10:09) WR Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Shenault was debated when I took Brown in the last round, so even though I still felt the need to add running back depth, the calculated decision to wait on the position brought the second-year Jaguar onto my roster. I’m not crazy about DJ Chark Jr.’s durability at this point, and we saw enough from the versatile Shenault as a rookie to expect a notable leap in Year 2.

11:04) RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders: I was expecting one of Drake, Chuba Hubbard, J.D. McKissic and Latavius Murray to be available for me. All of them were waiting for me. While McKissic was ranked the highest on my board, Drake’s situation appealed more to me based on my roster composition. If (when?) Josh Jacobs gets hurt, I have a proven back in a run-heavy system getting thrust into a starting role. I love McKissic’s receiving chops, though he’s not going to be much more than that if Antonio Gibson were to miss time.

12:09) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Tua Tagovailoa and Ben Roethlisberger were the other targets here. It really was a coin flip between Big Ben and Lawrence, though. I feel pretty good about betting Lawrence will safely finish inside the top 15, which is probably Roethlisberger’s ceiling.

13:04) RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings: Even though I didn’t draft Dalvin Cook, seeing Mattison here this late made me excited about my RB5 — not something that usually happens in a competitive draft. All it takes is one significant injury to Minnesota’s workhorse and I have a weekly RB2 or better ready for deployment.

14:09) RB Javian Hawkins, Atlanta Falcons: Just as the July mock draft saw me take Hawkins, yet again I couldn’t pass on his upside in PPR. This time, I snagged him two rounds later and as my RB6 instead of fifth. Hawkins has enjoyed a productive offseason and will be in the mix.

Hunting for upside tight ends

Four tight ends with upside for 2021

Tight ends offer marginal minimal moderate nothing  some fantasy points for your team, but the problem is that every year there are usually only three or four elite options for your roster. And they are largely the same ones every year. Bottom line, you either draft Travis Kelce (first round), Darren Waller and George Kittle (second or third rounds), or you accept your tight ends will not be difference-makers. Or – you have to get lucky.

Let’s explore “lucky.”

By that, I mean those players that exceed expectations. The ones that could step up into that difference-making realm of the Top-3. One of the challenges to determining which tight ends are most likely to step up is that they need an offensive scheme that will focus on them. Most do not. Tight ends are blockers first and receivers second on most teams. That is not to say that in-season injuries and dynamics won’t prop up a tight end for that year, but those players enjoy their magic year and then regress back into the pack. Think Evan Engram, who was the No. 5 fantasy tight end as a rookie in 2017 and has never been better than the No. 13 in his other three seasons.

The way that 2021 shakes out, every draft will have Kelce, Waller, and Kittle taken first. Somewhere around the sixth or so round, T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts are taken.  Hockenson is first, but occasionally someone buys into the hype of Pitts as an uber-weapon and takes him. But it almost always happens just like that for the first five tight ends in your fantasy draft. But maybe you didn’t want to spend that early pick on a tight end because you know that sets all other starters back a round and that is tough to make up ground.

Where do you turn?

Look for the tight ends with upside. The run on the position typically happens in the eighth or ninth round, after the entire league has already feasted on running backs, wide receivers, and most starting quarterbacks.  Here are four tight ends to consider with  the talent, experience and situation to merit fantasy consideration after the big guns are gone.

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – The third tight end drafted in 2018 showed progress when he ended his second season with 58 catches for 607 yards and five scores for the Eagles. And that was in a season when Zack Ertz turned in 88 catches for 916 yards and six scores in the tight-end friendly scheme. But both Ertz and Goedert struggled with injuries in 2020.

The 30-year-old Ertz appeared destined to change teams in the offseason (still not an impossibility), and his departure would clearly boost the talented Goedert into a very favorable situation. Regardless, Ertz looks like he has lost a step, and turns 31 years old this year. Goedert has the talent to be a difference-maker, and a young quarterback in Jalen Hurts who needs a tall friend on a short route over the middle.  There’s a new offense under head coach Nick Sirianni but he comes from the Colts, where tight ends have always mattered.

Noah Fant (DEN) – The second tight end selected in 2019 (1.20) hasn’t been a factor in the red zone with just three touchdowns in each of his two seasons. Both he and T.J. Hockenson were drafted out of Iowa as the first two tight ends that year. Team injuries and poor quarterback play impacted 2020 but he still ended with 93 targets for 62 receptions and 673 yards. Those came during the first year with OC Pat Shurmur.

Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater are battling to see who starts and there are two talented wideouts in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton if they can stay healthy. But Fant was already No. 6 in yardage and No. 7 in receptions last year among tight ends. He still has unrealized potential on a team with only two other notable receivers.

Mike Gesicki (MIA) – The second tight end drafted in 2018 (2.10) by the Dolphins posted career highs last season with 53 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns. Encouraging was his final five games while playing with Tua Tagovailoa when he averaged five catches for 58 yards and totaled four touchdowns over those games. The Dolphins upgraded their wideouts with the talented and oft-injured Will Fuller, and Jaylen Waddle who will become the No. 1 wideout there sooner than later.

But Gesicki established chemistry with Tagovailoa and was a receiving tight end at Penn State with around 50 catches in each of his last two years there. The Dolphins rushing offense already appears below average and those wideouts will draw plenty of attention from the defense. Gesicki was already the No. 12 and No. 7 fantasy tight end the last years and has the potential for more.

Cole Kmet (CHI) – This is your backup tight end, provided you believe such a thing can exist on a fantasy team. Kmet was the first tight end drafted in 2020 when the Bears spent their 2.11 pick. His rookie season was fairly nondescript with 28 receptions for 243 yards and only two touchdowns. The tall Notre Dame star is poised to take that typical step up in his second year. There’s not enough proven production to merit him being a fantasy starter yet, but he had more talent than any other tight end drafted last year.

The Bears enter their second season with OC Bill Lazor though HC Matt Nagy also involves himself in the offense. The Bears already ranked in the Top-12 in targets and receptions for the position last year. Jimmy Graham remains but Kmet is expected to become the primary. Also, in his favor – the Bears are expected to turn the reins over to the rookie quarterback Justin Fields at some point. And a 6-6 tight end that can still run a 4.7 40-time can be a much-needed outlet.

Fantasy football draft prep: Running back handcuffs to target

Protect your fantasy investments with these capable handcuff targets.

For some reason, handcuffing running backs in fantasy football has become a controversial draft strategy throughout the years. On one hand (wrist?), it isn’t sexy, so owners may shy away from a boring selection. Diversification on a roster is another reason why people may avoid it.

Yet, there is nothing but upside in securing the top backup in the correct situation.

Fantasy owners often are drawn to grabbing both backs in precarious backfields, which can get one into trouble. Some offensive situations just don’t warrant a selection, rendering both choices wasted picks.

A noteworthy factor to consider is the profile of the reserve backs in relation to the offensive system. Some teams remain dedicated to a compartmentalized approach. The key is to look for backfields in which the two primary choices are not polar opposites, and/or there isn’t a tertiary guy in the mold of the RB1.

An example of a backfield combo that would work against a gamer would be drafting both Indianapolis Colts running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. If Taylor were to go down for any period of time, Hines wouldn’t be called upon to handle the full workload. Marlon Mack would assume most of Taylor’s workload and share touches with Hines, who would remain as the primary third-down guy.

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You want to find players whose value drastically increased by way of a substantially larger workload. Rather than being one of <insert your league size here> number of owners fighting on the waiver wire or via blind bidding for the replacement player, adding him late in drafts is a win-win. It does, however, require patience during the season. Owners become tempted to cut said handcuff to create room for another player. This can backfire and needs to be addressed with a case-by-case mentality.

Handcuffing is especially crucial for high-round picks. More often than not, the reason a running back is a selection inside of the first three rounds is due to his extreme volume. Those touches have to go somewhere should an injury strike down said player. Avoid a second kicker and/or defense to provide your roster valuable insurance.

Most important handcuffs in 2021

Something not mentioned above that is worth keeping in mind when targeting a handcuff scenario is to see if there is massive spacing in the ADP figures between the lead back and his replacement candidate. Investing in, say, Cleveland’s backfield will require gamers to spend two picks on the same team within the first five rounds … less than ideal. More on that situation later, though …

RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers: The rookie has the skills to be a lead back in the event something happens to Christian McCaffrey, so keep a late-round selection tabbed for Hubbard. He can play all three downs and was prolific in 2019’s FBS season at Oklahoma State (2,292 total yards, 21 TDs).

RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings: There is absolutely zero freakin’ reason on this green Earth why gamers should not spend a midround investment on insuring a top-three pick, such as Dalvin Cook. In this specific case, Mattison has shown he can ball, and Cook has given us a glimpse into the world of durability concerns. Mattison would be see an RB1 workload without Cook.

RB Darrynton Evans, Tennessee Titans: Evans suffered a non-contact knee injury in the first preseason game, which usually spells disaster. Head coach Mike Vrabel listed the second-year back as “day-to-day,” however. In upcoming drafts, make sure Evans is rostered after you choose Derrick Henry. Historically speaking, the 2020 rushing king has only one direction to go in the upcoming campaign after topping 2,000 yards, and he has tallied a bazillion touches in the last few seasons.

RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott has been about as durable as they make ’em in his career, but he also has endured off-the-field missteps that could lead to another way for Pollard to see the field more than intended. The third-year Memphis product can do it all and would be arguably a top-five back if Elliott didn’t exist in Dallas.

RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders: A run-heavy offense and a history of quality production share vows to send Drake from being a fringe lineup consideration most weeks into borderline RB1 territory. Josh Jacobs has been no stranger to injury in his short career, and after lacking a heavy workload in college, it is indeed fair to question his durability as a pro. Drake goes a full six rounds after Jacobs, which helps spread out any concern of investing in multiple Raiders.

RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones typically goes somewhere around the tail end of Round 1, and any such investment effectively requires owners to lock in a spot for the backup. Dillon will see ample work in his own right to help spell Jones, but if the second-year back is thrust into being the workhorse one day, he could gallop gamers into the fantasy playoffs. Be prepared to spend a little, though, since his ADP is Round 8.

RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs: In 2020, then-rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t live up to fantasy expectations, but there is plenty of reason to like him in 2021. If he’s on your roster, Williams should be, too, and the investment is minimal (14th round). Sure, the offense will continue to run through Patrick Mahomes, so understand Williams will be a piece of the puzzle and not the ultimate solution for all of your fantasy needs.

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RB Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens: Maybe Edwards belongs in the section below for some leagues. The volume increase he will see, similarly to Williams in KC, makes him a weekly lineup option as no less than a flex play. J.K. Dobbins looked every bit the part of a stud in the making in 2020, and Lamar Jackson always is a threat to steal scores, but opportunity matters.

RB Damien Williams, Chicago Bears: The former Chief knows the system, which is an Andy Reid derivative. Head coach Matt Nagy comes directly from the Reid tree, and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor spent time under him as well as other former Reid subordinates. Tarik Cohen (knee) isn’t 100 percent and will not be more than a changeup/third-downer, so Williams will get a crack at RB1 reps if David Montgomery is knocked out of action. The well-rested Williams goes in Round 14, on average, making the investment practically nonexistent.

Grey area of handcuffing RBs

Detroit Lions: While D’Andre Swift returns from missing time with a groin injury, Jamaal Williams has been getting more love in fantasy drafts and extra practice reps with the ones. He has flashed at times in his career and is a steady three-down contributor. Head coach Dan Campbell and OC Anthony Lynn will remain committed to the ground game, defensive woes be damned, and there’s even a hot-hand scenario at play.

San Francisco 49ers: Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert may cannibalize each other’s fantasy chances on a weekly basis. The potential for profit here can be found in Mostert having a limited track record and battling injuries in the only season he was granted a true shot at being a No. 1 back. Sermon perfectly fits the offense and could outright overtake the lead at some point. Kyle Shanahan loves to share RB touches, though. In casual circles, Sermon will be the better value by quite a large margin. More advanced leagues already have him going ahead of Mostert.

Los Angeles Rams: The No. 1 back in this offense will threaten RB1 fantasy territory, if given the chance over the course of the year. That said, Darrell Henderson‘s inherited stay as the top back will come down to whether he can remain on the field after missing time in the past two years with separate ankle injuries. There technically isn’t a true handcuff here, so the smartest thing Henderson owners can do is draft the largely unknown Xavier Jones and hope for the best.

Cleveland Browns: As mentioned above, investing in both Cleveland backs requires two selections within the first five rounds. If Nick Chubb stays healthy all year, he’s a top-10 running back, no doubt. But Kareem Hunt easily can be, too, if he sees enough touches via a Chubb injury. There is almost no room for error with your other early selections should both backs remain healthy, and you’ll likely be forced into playing the pair most weeks.

Denver Broncos: In the 2021 draft, Denver chose second-round back Javonte Williams as the future of this backfield. Following the offseason program and first preseason game, it is rather evident the future is now. Veteran Melvin Gordon is little more than “just a guy,” even when he doesn’t have direct competition for touches. Williams has leapfrogged Gordon in ADP to be an early sixth-round choice, and the latter typically goes more than a full round later, making it feasible to acquire both on draft day.

New York Giants: It is understandable to want to secure a handcuff for Saquon Barkley (knee), given the price of admission, but there really isn’t a clear choice. No one guy will outright take the job, barring a crazy plot twist, and we’re also talking about a shaky offense to begin with here. Devontae Booker is the direct backup at the moment. He’s more of a spell and third-down guy than a workhorse, and Corey Clement is mostly cut from the same cloth. If you must, link Booker to the recovering Penn State star.

First 3 Picks: 10-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

The first three picks are going to define your team and set-up the rest of your draft. The optimal team is built by understanding the nuances of a scoring system and how it fits into your league rules.

A 10-team league means positional quality lasts longer. Everyone has a “good” team. You don’t need depth, you need difference-makers. Depth is less important and owning elite players are even more critical.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 10-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover almost all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you need after three rounds.  Rankings can change daily so these may not exactly match rankings.

Performance scoring league

Pick Round 1 Pick Round 2 (reverse) Pick Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.10 QB Patrick Mahomes 3.01 WR Justin Jefferson
1.02 RB Dalvin Cook 2.09 RB Saquon Barkley 3.02 WR DK Metcalf
1.03 RB Derrick Henry 2.08 WR Calvin Ridley 3.03 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire
1.04 RB Alvin Kamara 2.07 RB Aaron Jones 3.04 RB Josh Jacobs
1.05 RB Nick Chubb 2.06 RB Chris Carson 3.05 QB Josh Allen
1.06 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.05 WR Davante Adams 3.06 RB J.K. Dobbins
1.07 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.04 RB David Montgomery 3.07 WR DeAndre Hopkins
1.08 TE Travis Kelce 2.03 RB Antonio Gibson 3.08 RB D’Andre Swift
1.09 RB Joe Mixon 2.02 WR Tyreek Hill 3.09 TE Darren Waller
1.10 WR Stefon Diggs 2.01 RB Najee Harris 3.10 QB Kyler Murray

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are a premium and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable as well. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league.  Almost all teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Justin Jefferson

The first team started with a standard Christian McCaffrey and then used the next two picks to snap up the best quarterback and a Top-5 wideout. Certainly a star-filled roster so far, and owning McCaffrey makes delaying running backs feel better. Next up – that all said, has to look at a running back in the next two picks and maybe two of the next four. But a fast start in a smaller league size.

Team 2: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DK Metcalf

Start with Dalvin Cook was solid, then opted to control the running back at RB2 of Saquon Barkley not knowing what Team 1 would take. DK Metcalf at WR1 allowed a balanced start. Next Up – the Barkley owner needs to shore up his backfield in case he is slow to start. But the reality is that even if he is eased back into a heavy load, there is never a time that he should be benched if the Giants are starting him. So a running back next is not as big of a need as it may seem. Balanced start means can go anywhere.

Team 3: RB Derrick Henry, WR Calvin Ridley, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Derrick Henry offers even more in this scoring format that it affords the luxury of taking a wideout in the second round (Top-4), and then went back to the well for his RB2 in the third round.  Strong enough start and owns two difference-makers so far. Next up – could consider a quarterback soon for some firepower there. Ridley anchors the wideouts that can wait a few rounds while quarterback and a third running back are valuable options.

Team 4: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Aaron Jones, RB Josh Jacobs

Team went for three straight running backs – it always happens in this format and it can be effective with the right players. It netted the No. 4, No. 13, and the No. 16 running backs. And in this scoring format with smaller rosters, you can still access relatively highly ranked players in other positions. Next up – can go anywhere. Next three picks could be quarterback, tight end, wideout, whatever. Probably should not wait too long on wideout since high-quality players drain quickly even in this format.

Team 5: RB Nick Chubb, RB Chris Carson, QB Josh Allen

Nick Chubb is a beast without reception points an issue and opting to add Chris Carson as the No. 12 running back selected means a very solid backfield core. Love adding the No. 2 quarterback in the third round. No reception points? Starting RB-RB-QB is hard to fault in a ten-team league regardless of the draft slot. Next up – should consider wideouts in two of the next three picks to avoid a liability.  Could even think about tight end though the true difference-makers would already be gone.

Team 6: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Davante Adams, RB J.K. Dobbins

Still started with a running back, but then went with the No. 3 wideout in Davante Adams for a spark at that position. Safe play going with J.K. Dobbins in the third and he offers some upside without any penalty for his lack of receptions in this format. Next Up – balanced start means can go anywhere. Next three picks should include another wideout, running back, and at least consider a quarterback or tight end if the quality is still high.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB David Montgomery, WR DeAndre Hopkins

The smaller size of the league makes this more workable. Ezekiel Elliott is the seventh-straight running back, and that seems excessive, but Team 7 also knows that the next three teams are going to mine running backs, and there is a ton of talent in non-running back positions in the second round. Opted for David Montgomery instead of a different position, but hard to argue with the backfield. Went with DeAndre Hopkins for WR1 in the third to lock down a Top-8 wideout. Next up – can be anything but needs to weigh the fourth pick heavily because the fifth will see all the top players from all the positions already gone. Quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott could be difference-makers.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, RB Antonio Gibson, RB D’Andre Swift

Travis Kelce could go anywhere in  the first round as the only tight end with such a high reward-to-risk ratio. And following the run on running backs seems counterproductive with Kelce on the board. But taking a tight end with the first pick led Team 8 to grabbing running backs for the next two rounds. Next up – wideouts need to be on tap in two of the next three or four rounds. Kelce is a difference-maker in this format, but this plan (which is very common when Kelce is involved) could end up with him as the only difference-maker.

Team 9: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Darren Waller

Opted to start with running back even though Joe Mixon was the eighth back taken in the first round of a 10-team league.  The reasoning is that Team 9 knows he wants a running back in the first two picks or they’ll have a hole in a very important position in a non-reception point league. But almost all non-running backs are on the board and only one team go next. Still added Tyreek Hill and then went with Darren Waller at tight end in the third. That’s harder to do in this format, but he is a difference-maker and the team owner picks again in just two more picks. Next up – almost has to be a running back in the fourth. The fifth and sixth picks can look at best available since the core of the starters are taken aside from quarterback.

Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Najee Harris, QB Kyler Murray

Final pick in the first round comes away with a very nice start. First swing picks netted the best wideout and then high-upside running back with Najee Harris. Had he not taken Harris, his RB1 would have been the No. 18 back for a sure disadvantage. His second wrap-around pair of picks starts with Kyler Murray at quarterback. A top quarterback and wideout offer difference makers and if Harris meets expectations, this is a hot start. Next up – the next pick should consider running back (Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt, Myles Gaskin) that should be good enough to prevent a liability.  The third swing at rounds 5 and 6 can consider best available but likely wideout and running back.

Reception-point league

Pick Round 1 Pick Round 2 (reverse) Pick Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.10 TE Darren Waller 3.01 WR DK Metcalf
1.02 RB Alvin Kamara 2.09 RB Saquon Barkley 3.02 QB Patrick Mahomes
1.03 RB Dalvin Cook 2.08 WR Justin Jefferson 3.03 RB Antonio Gibson
1.04 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.07 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire 3.04 WR Keenan Allen
1.05 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.06 WR Calvin Ridley 3.05 RB David Montgomery
1.06 RB Derrick Henry 2.05 RB Najee Harris 3.06 WR Terry McLaurin
1.07 TE Travis Kelce 2.04 RB Aaron Jones 3.07 RB Austin Ekeler
1.08 WR Stefon Diggs 2.03 WR DeAndre Hopkins 3.08 RB D’Andre Swift
1.09 WR Davante Adams 2.02 RB Joe Mixon 3.09 TE George Kittle
1.10 RB Nick Chubb 2.01 WR Tyreek Hill 3.10 WR CeeDee Lamb

This style of scoring boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks relative to other positions. Running backs are going to be popular in any scoring scenario but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

With a reception point and only ten teams, your roster should look very strong after three picks. All positions are deep in this format.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE Darren Waller, WR DK Metcalf

Started with Christian McCaffrey, then opted for the No. 2 tight end (Darren Waller) and No. 7 wideout in DK Metcalf. Opened with a balanced approach but will find a riskier (or weaker) RB2 when picking at the end of the fourth round. Next up – has to pick up a running back at their next turn in rounds four and five. Also should consider wideout at that turn.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes

Alvin Kamara was a great start and then opted to take the No. 12 running back for a solid and safe beginning. Went with Patrick Mahomes for the top dog at the highest scoring position. First three picks addressed the reality of the rapid decline in running back value and the best bet for the highest-scoring player in the fantasy league. Next up – starting RB-RB-QB felt good but now all wideouts and tight ends are not going to be difference-makers and could be a liability. This plan means using most of the next picks on wideouts and adding another running back when the value merits delaying the wideouts.

Team 3: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Antonio Gibson

Standard start in this format with a Top-3 running back, then a Top-6 wideout. Followed with a return to running backs to feel safe about the backfield. Decent plan no matter where it is used. Next up – can go anywhere for best available. Top tight ends will be hard to reach, so mostly switching up running back and wideout while deciding where the quarterback makes sense.

Team 4: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Keenan Allen

In a reception-points league, this is the safest plan even though it doesn’t so far produce any real difference makers and could end up with an average team. In the end, it is always about picking the best players and avoiding the busts. This is the most risk-adverse plan. Next up – can go anywhere with a balanced start. Would have to overpay for any difference-making tight ends, so wideouts need to be two of the next three or four picks. Can wait a little on RB3, but those using this plan rarely do.

Team 5: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Calvin Ridley, RB David Montgomery

This is just Team No. 3 with a better wideout and a slightly worse running back.  In a reception-points league, this is safe and yet yields slightly better results than starting RB-RB-WR. Next up – balanced team probably better off with taking a wideout next before the value starts to decline more rapidly. Solid enough start but needs to keep an eye out for players that are falling in the draft or take some later chances to find difference-makers.

Team 6: RB Derrick Henry, RB Najee Harris, WR Terry McLaurin

The middle of a 10-team league can lead to this sort of plan that doesn’t quite work as well as it seems it will. This year, one of the middle teams is likely to go for Travis Kelce to shake up the run on running backs. Not doing so led to this team with the No. 6 running back (meaning lesser half of the RB1’s in a ten team league), and then the No. 10 running back. Next up – more wideouts and a quarterback should take up the next three rounds.

Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, RB Aaron Jones, RB Austin Ekeler

Finally, Kelce is taken. He goes between the No. 4 and No. 10 picks, it just depends on the league. With reception points, he’s a major difference-maker but still delays all other positions. That led to this plan that doubles down on running backs to prevent any liability in the backfield. Next up – a couple of wideouts are in order and likely two in the next three picks. Could swerve and get a top quarterback in the fourth or fifth but then the wideouts would start to suffer.

Team 8: WR Stefon Diggs, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB D’Andre Swift

This is a great plan here nearing the end of the first round. Ignoring wideouts makes no sense in the first round and accessed the top receiver. Starting out with two of the top four wide receivers is a huge advantage at the position and there is none to be had with running backs already drained. D’Andre Swift was a need pick in the third but overall this is an exciting to start to the draft. Next up – could accept that running backs are not going to be a strength and opt for quarterback and tight end, then scramble for whatever running back crumbs are left but would have fireworks at all position besides running back. It works better in the ten-team league where running backs last a bit longer.

Team 9: WR Davante Adams, RB Joe Mixon, TE George Kittle

Starting with wideout makes sense since it is better to control the No. 2 wideout than the No. 7 running back. After Davante Adams and Joe Mixon, went for George Kittle who should be the No. 3 tight end and a difference maker as well. It is usually a three-man race for elite tight ends, and Kittle brings some risk but considerable upside. Next up – has to consider running backs one or twice in the next three rounds but otherwise free to take best available regardless of position.

Team 10: RB Nick Chubb, WR Tyreek Hill, WR CeeDee Lamb

This is normally the team that starts WR-WR, but this plan went for RB1 with Nick Chubb before doubling on wideouts with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. And it works better in this size league because the running back is slightly better than in a 12-team league, and the wideout in the third round is still the No. 10 wide receiver taken, right before a natural tier-break. Next up – the next pick in the draft belongs to Team 10 who could use that for Josh Allen at quarterback for an advantage at the highest scoring position. That takes some guts though, since anything other than a running back at the 4.01 pick means the RB1 would be no better than the No. 18 to No. 20 taken.

QB-heavy league

Pick Round 1 Pick Round 2 (reverse) Pick Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.10 QB Russell Wilson 3.01 RB Aaron Jones
1.02 RB Alvin Kamara 2.09 TE Darren Waller 3.02 WR Calvin Ridley
1.03 QB Patrick Mahomes 2.08 RB Joe Mixon 3.03 RB Najee Harris
1.04 RB Dalvin Cook 2.07 WR DeAndre Hopkins 3.04 WR Justin Jefferson
1.05 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.06 QB Dak Prescott 3.05 WR DK Metcalf
1.06 QB Josh Allen 2.05 WR Tyreek Hill 3.06 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire
1.07 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.04 WR Davante Adams 3.07 QB Aaron Rodgers
1.08 TE Travis Kelce 2.03 QB Lamar Jackson 3.08 RB Saquon Barkley
1.09 WR Stefon Diggs 2.02 RB Nick Chubb 3.09 RB Antonio Gibson
1.10 QB Kyler Murray 2.01 RB Derrick Henry 3.10 TE George Kittle

This sort of league will seed quarterbacks in varying measures depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the ability to start two quarterbacks which change drafts significantly.

It will extend the quality of running backs and wideouts deeper into the draft since quarterbacks will go far earlier than the mid-draft than is common in other sorts of leagues. This run-through assumes two quarterbacks and that well over half of the starters are taken by the third round.

Viewing the previous year’s results are best for this sort of starting rule because quarterbacks can go slower – or much faster – than what this draft assumes. Keep up with the other picks in the league to make sure you don’t get stuck at the end of a run on quarterbacks.

In a smaller 10-team league with additional valuable players from the quarterback boost, almost every fantasy team is going to look great so taking elite players is paramount to winning – get starters before worrying about depth.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, RB Aaron Jones

After starting with Christian McCaffrey, was able to reach Russell Wilson as the No. 6 quarterback and then played it safer going RB1 with Aaron Jones. In this format, a Top-10 running back can reach the start of the third round. While not taking advantage as much of the reception point aspect, this plan is a solid one in this format regardless of draft slot. Next up – the next two picks should at least consider wideout. Elite tight ends are gone, and there will be a run on the position already started by the 4.12 pick.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, TE Darren Waller, WR Calvin Ridley

Opened with Alvin Kamara and then opted for the No. 2 tight end for an advantage in a position that  nosedives in value after two or three are gone. Was able to take Calvin Ridley as the No. 5 wideout in the third round. Balanced and strong start. Next up – the tight ends are already sewn up. Can go anywhere but more likely to weigh the RB2 and then the quarterback next.

Team 3: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Joe Mixon, RB Najee Harris

Why not? Patrick Mahomes is scraped off the heap with the 1.03 pick as the top quarterback in a league where elite players make a tremendous difference. Added two straight running backs but still reached the No. 8 and No. 10 players for a solid backfield. Splashy picks like a quarterback at the 1.03 usually prompt team owners to go a little more conservative for the next few picks. Next up – difference making tight ends are gone, but only seven wideouts were taken in the first three rounds. Should strongly consider two or even three in a row.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Jefferson

After getting Dalvin Cook in the first round, went to double up on wideouts.  The pick before him (2.06) tabbed Dak Prescott as the No. 5 quarterback so there was less advantage in the position since it hits a lower tier. DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Jefferson provide him two of the Top-6 wideouts for a strong start. Next up – The double wideouts means team can ignore the position for several rounds as the other core starters are secured. Should consider RB2 and two quarterbacks over the next four picks.

Team 5: RB Jonathan Taylor, QB Dak Prescott, WR DK Metcalf

Strong opening for a middle pick drafter. Opted for the No. 4 running back and then still reached Dak Prescott in the second. Landed DK Metcalf as WR1 in the third. All top tier players and yet none of the Top-3 in their position. Next up – can go anywhere and will include running back in the next few picks to be sure. But a run on wideouts is coming, so that is more prudent in the fourth and switch back to running back for the fifth.

Team 6: QB Josh Allen, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Josh Allen is usually more of a third round pick in the other formats, but he makes sense in the first round in a QB-heavy league. Was still able to grab Tyreek Hill in the second for a Top-3 wideout and then brought on Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a need pick from the declining stock of running backs. Next up – Balanced start allows freedom to take best available. Mixing in running backs and wideouts for the next three rounds is most prudent.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Davante Adams, QB Aaron Rodgers

Ezekiel Elliott is a Top-5 running back, but doesn’t offer enough bang for the buck in this format as it is unlikely the next three teams are all going to load up on running backs. Was able to reach Davante Adams as the No. 2 wideout and then opted for Aaron Rodgers since the risk/reward ratio declines for the position.  The Rodgers pick is interesting in that of the next three teams, two already took a quarterback and would be less likely to double down on the position in the third or fourth rounds before it wraps back Next up – Running backs and wideouts over the next several round but seeding an earlier  second quarterback would make up ground from starting the No. 7 as their QB1.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Saquon Barkley

This plan is a little scary. But if Saquon Barkley returns to form, this plan could be highly effective. Started with Travis Kelce as the ultimate difference-maker of the last four years. Was still able to take Lamar Jackson even though that delayed both running backs and wide receivers. Went with the risky but upside pick of Barkley who could have been Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery. The smaller the league, the more using a first round pick on Kelsey doesn’t hurt you. Next up – next pick is only four turns away and could still reach Allen Robinson, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and the like. That makes this plan start with a great core (assuming Barkley is returns to form, at least eventually). Waiting until the fifth round for that RB2 could still access a starting running back, though obviously a lower tier player.

Team 9: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Nick Chubb, RB Antonio Gibson

The ninth team finally opts for the best wideout on the board, then doubles down on running backs which feels very safe and netted the No. 7 and No. 13 running backs for a solid but unspectacular backfield. At least this plan gives the team freedom with his remaining picks. Next up – quarterback should be on tap in the fourth which is only three picks away. It won’t be an elite fantasy quarterback but still can draw from either Justin Herbert or Tom Brady. Otherwise, the 5.9 pick is 15 selections away and that most likely dips deeply enough into quarterbacks that the team will have one of the weakest QB1’s. Wideouts are a need as well, but can wait a bit for that quarterback and even another running back if the value is there.

Team 10: QB Kyler Murray, RB Derrick Henry, TE George Kittle

The smaller league size and QB-heavy format is kinder to the final team in the first round than usual. Top-3 quarterback with Kyler Murray paired with Derrick Henry at the turn, then in the third added George Kittle for another Top-3 player. Granted – Kittle carries risk after last year, but this is a formidable start. Next up – has to consider wideouts in two of the next three picks while wedging in the best value in running backs.

Fantasy football draft prep: Breaking biases

Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.

All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.

In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.

What are you waiting for?!? It’s time to get into The Huddle! Sign up today.

I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.

Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.

What have you done for me lately?

Recency bias is a real thing. Fantasy owners get hung up on how well or poorly a player has done in relation to past ownership. We all have heard someone explain they chose a player because of familiarity and past success of rostering said player.

Some players are insanely consistent and productive, such as Antonio Brown was during his time in Pittsburgh. Until he wasn’t. Fantasy owners fall in love with successes of the past and unfairly avoid players with whom they have had negative experiences for nothing more than the memory of a bad outcome. Perfectly natural, but definitely avoidable.

Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler burned gamers last year but is poised to rebound. He was a PPR monster in 2019 when Melvin Gordon was injured but then fell on hard times with injuries of his own a season ago, which could have some gamers afraid to take a chance on him again. However, a look at the situation suggests a return to similar production from ’19, provided he says healthy. Sure, risk mitigation is at play, but there can be a fine line between avoiding pitfalls and creating your own out of hesitancy.

It reminds of the friend who won’t go to a specific restaurant because one time they had a bad meal. There are dozens of conceivable reasons why the meal wasn’t up to their liking, but applying a blanket rule based on one experience deprives the chance of redemption and satisfaction. Think about all of the instances in your life where something pleasantly surprised you after a sour experience. It is mainly due to you letting go of cognitive biases based on past results. And, if you buy/sell/eat/drink, etc. enough of anything, you’re bound to encounter a problem.

In fantasy, so many changes year over year must be factored into player valuation. A change in coaching staff, surrounding personnel, player health, refocused dedication, off-the-field lifestyle changes … you name it. Use the biases of others to your advantage.

It also works in the opposite direction. Take Saquon Barkley for example. No one doubts his freakish talent, but the reality is the last two years have been injury-marred disasters, and he’s still not ready for a normal workload to open the year. Tack on a shaky offensive line and a quarterback who appears to be regressing and we have even more reason to say maybe Barkley just isn’t a wise choice in 2021. He surely could come around as the year unfolds, but investing a top-20 pick in a guy who may give half a season of strong play requires so much else to go right in your draft.

Homer vs. anti-homer

No one should be a homer, and no one should excuse this foolish sabotage. Doh! There often is an argument against fantasy sports that it removes fandom and promotes individuals over teams. It does, and all who play the game should embrace it!

No where in your league rules does it state having a player on your favorite team is rewarded with extra fantasy points, and if you’re using homerism as an excuse to pay closer attention to your team, it’s time to find a new hobby. This includes you, person who says, “I always draft my team’s kicker or defense because it’s just a kicker or defense.” Wasted points are wasted points.

[lawrence-related id=458784]

The “anti-homer” is the person who refuses to draft anyone from a rival of their preferred NFL team. Ever meet the Green Bay Packers fan who never drafts anyone from the Chicago Bears or Minnesota Vikings? (Sorry, Detroit Lions fans, in Titletown that feeling is sympathy, not hatred.)

The unwillingness to roster players from an arch enemy is as bonkers as drafting players from your favorite squad for no other reason than they play for said opponent. Every single player who produces fantasy-worth stats warrants consideration in a draft. No one is totally off-limits at the right price … sometimes drafts don’t last long enough for the price to be right, however.

But they’re the <insert team here>

Cleveland Browns. Admit it … you were thinking the same thing out of habit. Let’s go with the Houston Texans this year.

Ever meet someone who is stuck in the past with all of their stories? After a while, you’ve heard … every … single … story … they have to tell. They aren’t bad people, but they have no forward gears in their transmission. Only neutral and reverse — and mostly the latter.

In fantasy terms, neutral is the present time. Without the ability to go forward, coupled with a penchant for looking backward, it becomes extremely difficult to see the “what could be” of any scenario. Apply this to perennial losers, or even teams that have fallen on hard times. It becomes far too easy for gamers to become dismissive of the mere potential a team or player could turn things around at the drop of a hat after years of substandard returns.

Those pesky labels

Use social media long enough and eventually you probably will be labeled something you are not. It’s an unofficial fact of life in 2019, and it also applies to fantasy sports. Players with injury history or off-field issues draw a label and generally cannot escape it. The thing is, though, most players do graduate beyond the genesis of the label.

Think back to Matthew Stafford’s third year in the NFL. He played only 13 contests in the prior to season and was widely called injury-prone — even a bust. Gamers stuck on that label probably passed him by in 2011 drafts, and he went on to throw 5,038 yards and 41 scores. A more recent example would be people who watched the 2019 New England offense and said Tom Brady was “washed up” and ready for the pasture.

I suffered from this myself last year with Stefon Diggs. Previously to being traded to Buffalo, he was wildly inconsistent and would produce the vast majority of his points in a few short spurts scattered throughout the season each year. Until he didn’t and was an unbelievably consistent receiver.

You hopefully get the point. As simplistic as it is, someone is perceived as something until they are not.

Accountability is the key

Be objective. Be honest with yourself. Admit error.

The main lesson is to adopt a healthy skepticism and challenge the opinions you have formulated. Question if your belief is founded in fact over opinion. And even sometimes when it is based on factual data — like with the Diggs example — don’t let what has happened override your ability to see what could happen.

Be willing to understand your notion of a player can be misguided, and allow their change of circumstances to prove you wrong. When you identify a clear example of your error, own it and learn how to grow from the mistake or blind spot.

For as cliche and unprofound as it sounds, every fantasy owner can use the reminder that all good — and bad — things come to an end, one way or another.

First 3 Picks: 12-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

Your first three picks define your fantasy football team. Each pick is critical because the player pool is ever-shrinking, and you have to select a mixture of available players to produce an optimal team. And those initial rounds determine what you’ll do in the later rounds of the draft. Get them wrong and you may not be able to recover.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 12-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover virtually all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you need after three rounds.  Rankings can change daily so these may not exactly match site rankings. Pay the most attention to the positions and how they work together for an optimal start.

Performance scoring league

Round 1 Round 2 (reverse) Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.12 RB Josh Jacobs 3.01 WR DeAndre Hopkins
1.02 RB Dalvin Cook 2.11 QB Patrick Mahomes 3.02 RB J.K. Dobbins
1.03 RB Derrick Henry 2.10 WR DK Metcalf 3.03 RB D’Andre Swift
1.04 RB Alvin Kamara 2.09 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire 3.04 QB Josh Allen
1.05 RB Nick Chubb 2.08 WR Justin Jefferson 3.05 WR CeeDee Lamb
1.06 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.07 RB Saquon Barkley 3.06 WR A.J. Brown
1.07 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.06 WR Calvin Ridley 3.07 TE Darren Waller
1.08 TE Travis Kelce 2.05 RB Aaron Jones 3.08 RB Mike Davis
1.09 RB Joe Mixon 2.04 RB Chris Carson 3.09 WR Keenan Allen
1.10 WR Stefon Diggs 2.03 RB David Montgomery 3.10 RB Kareem Hunt
1.11 RB Najee Harris 2.02 WR Davante Adams 3.11 RB Myles Gaskin
1.12 WR Tyreek Hill 2.01 RB Antonio Gibson 3.12 QB Kyler Murray

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are a premium and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league.  Almost all teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic because the supply is very low by round four.

 Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Josh Jacobs, WR DeAndre Hopkins

Starting with the top player in the draft usually means having more freedom with the next picks since you already have an advantage and are not locked into a need pick. In this case, team opted to pair McCaffrey with  the best available rusher and receiver for a solid and safe start. Next up –  is likely a quarterback, but the base has been set and wideouts can wait in this format.

Team 2: RB Dalvin Cook, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB J.K. Dobbins

This plan better addresses the realities of player value with no reception points. Obvious pick with Cook turned into scooping the top quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Grabbed RB2 in the third round for a very effective start. Quarterbacks are more valuable in this format, so reaching the top player at the end of the second round makes sense. Next up – consider a wideout before the position becomes a liability.

Team 3: RB Derrick Henry, WR DK Metcalf, RB D’Andre Swift

Started with Derrick Henry who is a beast in this scoring format, then opted for DK Metcalf in the second. That let him control which wideout he took as the sixth overall and then address RB2 with upside pick of J.K. Dobbins. Next up – probably looking at quarterback or another running back.

Team 4: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, QB Josh Allen

Nice start in this scoring format that needed a top running back, high upside with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and then opted for the No. 2 quarterback in Josh Allen. Solid start to be sure. Next up – look at wideouts or a third running back if one has fallen in the draft.

Team 5: RB Nick Chubb, WR Justin Jefferson, WR CeeDee Lamb

While this plan doesn’t appear to honor the scoring format as much, it really sort of does. Solid start at running back was joined by two wideouts even without reception points. The plus here is that while wideouts do not score as much in this format, they still matter and the team now owns two Top-10 players in that position. That is an advantage in a position he can now leave alone for several rounds while searching for value picks. Up next – should consider two running backs and a quarterback in the next three rounds.

Team 6: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown

Standard “middle of the draft” path that is safe. Start with two backs that mean the position may be a strength and should not be a liability. Then opting for a difference-making wide receiver before that quality wanes. This is very safe in this format. Next up – Can go anywhere, should consider running back in the fourth before value evaporates but can consider quarterbacks along the way as well.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Calvin Ridley, TE Darren Waller

Continued the run on running backs and still ended up with Ezekiel Elliott. Then they reached a Top-5 wide receiver in Calvin Ridley and the No. 2 tight end with Darren Waller. No reception points depress their contributions, but they still represent an advantage in points against other fantasy teams. Next up – have to consider running backs the next two rounds unless someone else falls. Quarterback is down the road in this one. Has to catch up with running backs before the position is a liability which is more damaging in this scoring format.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, RB Aaron Jones, RB Mike Davis

Finally, a team doesn’t take a running back. Travis Kelce has been an advantage for the last four years and a season-winner with reception points. Even in this format, he represents a major advantage in a position that nearly doesn’t matter without reception points. Taking running backs the next two picks was almost a need and not a choice. Next up – wideouts and a quarterback need to happen in the next rounds, but grabbing an RB3 always makes sense if a good value is there in the next couple of rounds.

Team 9: RB Joe Mixon, RB Chris Carson, WR Keenan Allen

Always a tough spot. Starting with two running backs certainly feels safe. And the three teams behind could have potentially sucked up six backs before their second pick. This is a draft slot that can be a challenge and this team certainly played it safe. But there is no real advantage in any of the players other than minor having Chris Carson as an RB2. Next up – has to start looking for difference-makers. Should consider quarterback next and maybe even think about an earlier tight end because so far the plan is building an average team.

Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, RB David Montgomery, RB Kareem Hunt

With the running backs risk going up and value in decline, opted for the top wideout to start, and then went with running backs for the next two to keep up with that run. This is more normal for a reception points league, but owning the best wideout is still an advantage in this scoring format. Next up – should consider running back again over the next pick or two since that all-important position is only average so far. Quarterback and another wideout can be weighed over the next four rounds as well.

Team 11: RB Najee Harris, WR Davante Adams, RB Myles Gaskin

The rookie Harris dips into the first round with no reception points and then the team selected Davante Adams as a Top-3 wideout with plenty of touchdowns. By the time the third round rolled back around, went with Myles Gaskin as RB2 with his fingers crossed. Next up – picks in only two more spots and can consider another running back like Austin Ekeler or Chase Edmonds. But a quarterback and a second wideout still offer very good values. Adding a Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott in the fourth may force a running back in the fifth, but it is a nice start to be sure.

Team 12: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Antonio Gibson, QB Kyler Murray

Drafting at the end of the round in any format always forces some outside-of-the-box thinking, and this plan works about as well as any other this deeply in the draft in this format. Tyreek Hill is always an advantage at wideout, then nabbed Antonio Gibson at RB1 to prevent a disadvantage. Then taking Kyler Murray makes for a very nice start. That’s a Top-3 wideout, a running back, and a Top-3 quarterback. Next up – must look at running back and maybe again in the fifth round as well. Great start if running backs can cobble together at least average production.

Reception-point league 

Round 1 Round 2 (reverse) Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.12 QB Patrick Mahomes 3.01 TE Darren Waller
1.02 RB Alvin Kamara 2.11 WR DK Metcalf 3.02 RB D’Andre Swift
1.03 RB Dalvin Cook 2.10 RB Austin Ekeler 3.03 WR Keenan Allen
1.04 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.09 RB David Montgomery 3.04 WR Terry McLaurin
1.05 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.08 WR Justin Jefferson 3.05 RB Chris Carson
1.06 RB Derrick Henry 2.07 WR Calvin Ridley 3.06 TE George Kittle
1.07 TE Travis Kelce 2.06 RB Antonio Gibson 3.07 RB J.K. Dobbins
1.08 RB Nick Chubb 2.05 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire 3.08 WR CeeDee Lamb
1.09 WR Stefon Diggs 2.04 RB Najee Harris 3.09 WR Allen Robinson II
1.10 WR Davante Adams 2.03 RB Aaron Jones 3.10 WR Robert Woods
1.11 WR Tyreek Hill 2.02 WR DeAndre Hopkins 3.11 RB Mike Davis
1.12 RB Joe Mixon 2.01 RB Saquon Barkley 3.12 WR A.J. Brown

This scoring style boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks a bit. Running backs are popular in any scoring scenario, but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Darren Waller

This is why everyone hates the first pick. And this absolutely can happen. Starts with the best running back, then the best quarterback, then the No. 2 tight end. There’s tons of advantage there and the position that will be a potential weakness is wideout that is the deepest and easiest to find values and free agents. Next up – the 4.12 is 22 spots away, so not a lot left but has to consider running back and maybe the next two picks if there is a flex.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, WR DK Metcalf, RB D’Andre Swift

Solid start that honors the scoring formant and in this case, with either rock-solid choices or an upside player. Starting RB-WR-RB is a proven solid start for early draft slots that prevent your roster from holes. Next up – can go anywhere. Likely wideouts and another running back in play for the next three rounds.

Team 3: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen

This is the flip side of Team 2. Controlled his RB2 instead of his WR1 and came away with a solid start. Again – proven plan that honors the scoring system from this draft slot. Next up – probably a wideout and another running back. Solid but needs upside players or the team can end up average.

Team 4: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB David Montgomery, WR Terry McLaurin

First five draft slots all go running back this year, so the normal plan is to go RB-WR or WR-RB. This plan feels good in the first three rounds but looking back afterward can appear less exciting since no top players. Next up – drifting further from the start of the draft means lesser quality running backs. Should look for some difference makers in other positions to prevent a liability. While it lacks “pizzazz”, it also doesn’t have any holes.

Team 5: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Chris Carson

Heading into the middle of the draft, the RB1 is good but the WR1 may be great in this format. Opting for Chris Carson in the third means a solid set of running backs, but safe doesn’t usually win championships. Next up – Like Team 4, need something to punch up the roster from another position. Solid teams can reach the playoffs but all too often are not in the championship.

Team 6: RB Derrick Henry, WR Calvin Ridley, TE George Kittle

This may be a middle of the draft team, but so far, the plan looks impressive. Started with the obligatory running back for a good RB1, and then was able to still access a  Top-5 wideout with Calvin Ridley, and found George Kittle in the third.  In this scoring format, drafting from the middle, this is a great start with three players near the top of their positions. Next up – has to consider an RB2 in the next round or round five at the latest or will have a hole that is very hard to fill.

Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, RB Antonio Gibson, RB J.K. Dobbins

Travis Kelce is the most intriguing first-round pick in this format. He’s taken between No. 4 and No. 12, but usually around picks seven to nine. He’s been a tremendous advantage for four years which is good, because using a first-round pick on a tight end sets a team back in everything else. This team went the safe route with double running backs which feels better after spending the first rounder on a tight end. Next up – can go anywhere. Wideouts are an obvious need now and should be heavily considered over the next several rounds.  Can sneak a quarterback in as well, but even wideouts significantly decline in value if waited on too long.

Team 8: RB Nick Chubb, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR CeeDee  Lamb

Doubling up on running backs is safe and a good base. In this scenario, started with the No. 7 and No. 12 running backs which is solid though without difference-making. Adding on upside wideout CeeDee Lamb as the No. 10 wideout selected is still following the runs. Safe start that needs some lucky picks later on to compete. Next up – can go anywhere, but should think about adding an earlier quarterback for some advantage. Otherwise, next three picks should probably provide two wideouts and a third running back.

Team 9: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Najee Harris, WR Allen Robinson II

The first wideout appears in this RB-hungry fantasy world, and that’s an immediate advantage. Tacked on the high-upside rookie of Najee Harris, then added the No. 12 wideout in Allen Robinson. That’s two Top-12 wideouts, and a rookie running back that, at least for now, offers exciting potential.  The nine-spot is always tough, but this plan worked what was available well. Could have taken a running back in the third, but better off controlling which wideout that was available since the run on them is about to start in a major way. Next up – certainly much consider running back in maybe two of the next three picks. But a fun start that honors the scoring format.

Team 10: WR Davante Adams, RB Aaron Jones, WR Robert Woods

The same plan works for Team 10 as it did for Team 9. He gets the better running back and about the same at wideout. Taking two players from the same team for the first two picks scare some, so a different running back could make some drafters feel more comfortable. Next up – Same as Team 9. Consider two running backs over the next three picks and can take a quarterback if wanted.

Team 11: WR Tyreek Hill, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Mike Davis

At the end of the first round, usually at least one team will play contrarian and start with two wideouts. With reception points, owning Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins means two of the Top-5 receivers are cranking out difference-making fantasy points. But, doing so left team with 18 running backs already off the board and Mike Davis was best available here. Bottle up the feeling after two rounds because it won’t taste quite as sweet with below average players making up much of the remaining starters. Next up – running back is a need, so two more in a row is not a terrible idea. Already team is into the Josh Jacobs, Myles Gaskins, or Chase Edmonds area for RB2. This plan can work – absolutely. But the next three or four draft picks need to all hit to compensate for the initial disadvantage at running back.

Team 12: RB Joe Mixon, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown

This plan seems too safe. Most Team 12’s will consider WR-WR or sneaking in a quarterback or tight end in their first two picks but the way that 2021 plays out, no available tight end or quarterback merit a pick here. So that leaves just running backs and wideouts. Could have started with two wideouts like Team 11 and likely had the same effect. But went safe with Joe Mixon  as the eighth running back drafted for their RB1, and then picked up the constantly falling Saquon Barkley.  Tacked on A.J. Brown at WR1 to prevent a liability. If Barkley can return to past form, then this team got a bargain. If not, it is hard to make up that ground. Next up – need wideouts and should consider reaching for a higher tight end or quarterback to make up some advantage. This is a safe start, and it can work, but needs to hit on later value picks.

 

Super Flex / QB-heavy league 

Round 1 Round 2 (reverse) Round 3
1.01 RB Christian McCaffrey 2.12 QB Aaron Rodgers 3.01 WR Calvin Ridley
1.02 RB Alvin Kamara 2.11 WR DeAndre Hopkins 3.02 RB Antonio Gibson
1.03 QB Patrick Mahomes 2.10 RB Clyde   Edwards-Helaire 3.03 RB David Montgomery
1.04 RB Dalvin Cook 2.09 RB Najee Harris 3.04 TE Darren Waller
1.05 RB Jonathan Taylor 2.08 WR Tyreek Hill 3.05 QB Tom Brady
1.06 QB Josh Allen 2.07 RB Aaron Jones 3.06 RB Austin Ekeler
1.07 RB Ezekiel Elliott 2.06 TE Travis Kelce 3.07 WR Justin Jefferson
1.08 WR Stefon Diggs 2.05 RB Saquon Barkley 3.08 QB Justin Herbert
1.09 QB Kyler Murray 2.04 RB Joe Mixon 3.09 WR DK Metcalf
1.10 RB Derrick Henry 2.03 QB Russell Wilson 3.10 RB D’Andre Swift
1.11 QB Lamar Jackson 2.02 RB Nick Chubb 3.11 RB Chris Carson
1.12 WR Davante Adams 2.01 QB Dak Prescott 3.12 RB J.K. Dobbins

This league seeds in quarterbacks depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the ability to start two quarterbacks. That extends  value in other positions deeper into the draft since quarterbacks take up more of the early picks.  Each 2QB or super-flex league can use different scoring and other aspects that impact player value, so consider the nuances of your league.

There are a definite Top-6 in quarterbacks this year. After those are taken,  the perceived positional value becomes less consistent and predictable.

It is also assumed that there are reception points. That is by far the most common in that type of league. It is also notable that a team can win without automatically starting two quarterbacks even when allowed.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Calvin Ridley

Owning the No. 1 pick is also an advantage, but it plays out differently in this format. Started with Christian McCaffery, but then  six quarterbacks had been taken by the 2.12. Still went with Aaron Rodgers and then accessed the No. 5 wideout with Calvin Ridley. Same plan as Team 1 in the reception points league, but not quite as shiny and impressive. Next up – owning McCaffrey gives confidence that often leaves owners putting off their RB2. That’s still not that prudent and the next picks are the 48th and 49th of the draft. One of those must be running back, if not both.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Antonio Gibson

Though two quarterbacks may be started, not every team will scramble to get “a quarterback, any quarterback.” Started with Alvin Kamara but went with the No. 3 wideout in DeAndre Hopkins since the Top-5 quarterbacks were already gone. Antonio Gibson in the third starts the team on solid footing with some firepower in those first two picks. Next up – free to go anywhere. Obviously quarterback needs to be address since the position will get drained much faster in this format. Could be fine with a couple of younger, upside quarterbacks.

Team 3: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB David Montgomery

The most interesting part of the first round is when Patrick Mahomes is taken (or Josh Allen). That feels really good and yields an obvious advantage. But that also left the team doubling up on running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have been Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery if owning two players on the same team is an issue. Next up – solid start to be sure and allows next few picks to go anywhere. More likely wideouts and a second quarterback by the sixth round.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Najee Harris, TE Darren Waller

While this plan doesn’t include any quarterbacks, it is very workable in this format. If the rookie Najee Harris comes through as expected, then a great 1-2 punch with running backs adds the No. 2 tight end in the third which is possible in this style of league play. The Waller pick gains an advantage at tight end for a solid core. Next up – must mine the wideouts and quarterbacks over the next three or four picks for a balanced team without any holes.

Team 5: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tom Brady

Started with Jonathan Taylor for a solid RB1 and reached Tyreek Hill as the No. 3 wideout which is possible with five or six quarterbacks showing up in the initial 15 or so picks. The Tom Brady pick (or No. 8 quarterback) was a reasonable attempt to get a Top-10 quarterback since anywhere from two to six more may be gone by the 4.08 when they go again. Next up – free to go any direction, but another running back in the next two rounds is prudent, along with a wideout. Balanced start allows freedom to go at value instead of need.

Team 6: QB Josh Allen, RB Aaron Jones, RB Austin Ekeler

This format encourages taking an elite quarterback this early.  Followed up with safe picks of Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. Running backs are not going to be an advantage so far, but every other position may still be. Next up – wideouts and a second quarterback make the most sense. Probably won’t have much at tight end but that is okay.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Travis Kelce, WR Justin Jefferson

Maybe there are no quarterbacks here, but this would kill in a reception-points league and can be just as good in a Super-Flex.  Started out with Ezekiel Elliott for a solid RB1 and then added the No. 1 tight end that could fall this far in this format. Added Justin Jefferson as the No. 6 wideout taken. Balanced start with some firepower at three positions so far. Next up – running back and quarterback are needed over the next three or four picks. If a wideout with higher value fell, he could be considered, but loading up on quarterback and running back needs to happen while it still can.

Team 8: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Justin Herbert

Opted to start with the No. 1 wideout, then settled for the No. 9 running back in Saquon Barkley, who may become the No. 1 again (or No. 119 again, depending). Went with Justin Herbert as the No. 9 quarterback to ensure no liability at the position. Balanced start though a little risky. Next up – with Barkley, need to load up on other running backs sooner than later in case he has a slow start. But aside from running backs, the balanced start means picking for value in any position.

Team 9: QB Kyler Murray, RB Joe Mixon, WR DK Metcalf

The No. 9 team is not disadvantaged as they might be in other league formats. Missed out on a Top-5 running back but was able to add a Top-3 quarterback. Joined him with Joe Mixon at RB1 and still reached DK Metcalf as a Top-7 wideout thanks to all those other quarterbacks taking up space in the initial rounds. Next up – Like Team 8, balanced start means being able to hunt for best value in any position. The RB2 needs to be added without the next couple of rounds, but a good looking start from a normally tougher draft slot.

Team 10: RB Derrick Henry, QB Russell Wilson, RB D’Andre Swift

The sixth running back comes off the board knowing that the two teams waiting to draft will consider them and the drop-off in running back quality could fall into a lower tier.  Added Russell Wilson as the sixth quarterback taken over the first fourteen picks and the final one from the initial quarterback tier. Went with RB2 of D’Andre Swift for upside. Good core to start but needs firepower from other positions. Next up – wide receivers are an obvious need and should be addressed a couple of times over the next three or four rounds. But the start was solid enough to allow grabbing anyone that seems a great value.

Team 11: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Nick Chubb, RB Chris Carson

The fourth quarterback taken in the first round says this is not your normal league format. But the initial six quarterbacks are almost universally considered as the elite in their position this year. Tacked on Nick Chubb as RB1 and then opted for Chris Carson as RB2 since the elite players were gone from the four main positions.  Since Team 12 had no running backs in their first two picks, it’s a lock they will take one or even two before the 4.02 rolls back. Next up – looking for wideouts has to happen soon, but taking another quarterback or running back works as well if the value is there.

Team 12: WR Davante Adams, QB Dak Prescott, RB J.K. Dobbins

The back-end of the first round is not nearly so bad in this format that adds more valuable players to the pile. Went with the No. 2 wideout and grabbed Dak Prescott  for what could be spectacular results (health willing). Final pick of J.K. Dobbins was prudent and yielded a balanced start. There is firepower at WR1 and QB1, and waiting until the end of the third round still reaches the No. 18 running back. Next up – certainly running back is in order and likely this next pick at the 4.01. But balanced start allows more strategy in how the team comes together in this format over others.

Fantasy football draft prep: When to take a tight end

Tight end can be a tricky position to navigate for novice drafters.

Note: Our “draft prep” series is generally intended to an audience with limited fantasy football experience.

In recent years, tight end has been among the deepest of positions on paper, but we’ve seen serious volatility. This season, there is a top-heavy lean that is followed by a crop of midrange safety choices and then the usual “could-be” gambles.

How gamers choose to construct a team in the first few rounds tends to steer how the position is addressed on draft day.

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The first half of drafts

Kansas City’s Travis Kelce is the undisputed No. 1 option atop the position, followed by Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller. The former’s average draft position is 1:09 in PPR, whereas gamers typically have opted for Waller at Pick 2:10.

The position always will be a staple in Andy Reid’s system, and Kelce is the team’s best weapon in the red zone. Las Vegas’ lack of weaponry at wide receiver, coupled with Waller’s athleticism, makes him their de facto WR1.

There’s a third guy who isn’t drafted quite as early as these two beasts, but he should be in the conversation for brave gamers. San Francisco’s George Kittle — when healthy — has the chops to thoroughly dominate just like Kelce and Waller. There’s just so much more risk than what is found in the latter two … rotating quarterback potential, injuries, a more pronounced role as a blocker, greater emphasis on the ground game, etc.

Choosing Kelce in the first is expecting he finishes somewhere between a career-best 2020 showing of 312.6 PPR points and his second-highest mark (2019) of 296.6 points to secure what would be the No. 4 placement for both running back and receiver based on last year’s results. His selection requires the comfort with your decision to bypass RB and WR. Screwing up a pick that early can drastically hinder one’s odds of securing a championship, and this sentiment applies to all positions. That said, the only way he doesn’t return something awfully close to being a top-12 overall player (non-QB) is by missing several games with an injury.

Waller is in a similar boat. The investment is steep, yet gamers should feel comfortable with him that early. He set the tone in 2019 and exceeded his lofty figures last year. As mentioned, by necessity alone, he’s no different than a low-tier No. 1 receiver and well worth the cost of admission.

After “The Big 3” of tight ends leave the board, gamers are looking at the decision of either waiting for a late-round value, drafting the risky potential of a historic rookie, or investing in at mid-tier choice with little upside for true explosiveness from week to week.

Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts is arguably the most controversial player of the position in ’21. He was chosen No. 4 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft and enters one of the friendliest systems (and situations) for tight ends. No one at the position was selected earlier than Pitts. The Florida product is much like Waller in that he is far closer to a wide receiver than a traditional tight end and won’t be asked to do too much blocking. All of the positives overshadow the reality that rookie TEs rarely produce anything worthy of TE1 status, let alone top-five results.

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Tight ends Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson figure to be your classic “Steady Eddie” types in fantasy, coming at an average cost of a Round 5 selection. Both team’s have suspect receiving corps, but each player is asked to block in a traditional “Y” role more than we can expect from Pitts. These guys will butter their bread with PPR volume. Andrews scored 10 times in 2019, so he has double-digit TD capability on his resume. And it’s unfair to say we’ve seen Hockenson’s ceiling just yet.

Round 6 doesn’t usually see a tight end come off the board, which brings us into the seventh with a trio of intriguing risk-reward choices.

Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert has the skills to live up to his placement as TE7, even if Zach Ertz is retained into the regular season. Philadelphia has a work-in-progress receiving corps, and the system will employ both tight ends by necessity. Should Ertz get sent packing, Goedert,  regardless of durability concerns, is a top-five fantasy asset among his positional peers.

Next is the Washington Football Team’s Logan Thomas, a surprise fantasy darling of a year ago. He is a converted quarterback. While he certainly could approach is 2020 line of 72-670-6, Thomas is far from a lock to repeat and/or exceed those figures. WR Curtis Samuel will gobble up a bunch of short and intermediate looks, and the upgrade at quarterback to Ryan Fitzpatrick actually will promote more downfield passing, which may work against Thomas (9.3 YPR last year).

Closing out Round 7, Denver’s Noah Fant has all the promise in the world but will be inconsistent if his quarterback play doesn’t drastically improve. Additionally, WR Courtland Sutton (knee) returns, and second-year wideout Jerry Jeudy has a reasonable chance to ascend his game to a degree that steals significant targets. Talent alone, the ultra-athletic Fant could be the TE1 and not just a TE1. He’ll need a few breaks to go his way before he consistently delivers the goods on a weekly basis.

Round 8 and beyond

The most commonly drafted names in Round 8 are Hunter Henry (New England) and Robert Tonyan (Green Bay).

The former Charger is an injury waiting to happen and now has to learn a complex system with serious question marks at quarterback. Plus, he’s not the only new pass-catching tight end in town. There will be quality games from Henry, but he’s not a weekly starter and will require a backup plan for the weeks he’s a lineup anchor.

Tonyan exploded last year by way of 11 touchdowns, which tied with Kelce for the most among TEs, and he did it with 53 fewer receptions, or one more catch than the Packer even recorded in 2020. Rarely does a tight end continue with such a high efficiency rating year after year, and the limited volume isn’t likely to improve with the return of Randall Cobb to steal underneath looks. Few players are poised to experience such a downswing from 2020 results.

The draft then brings a handful of more or less the same middling players with inconsistent results from week to week. While some have upside to outperform their draft stock, all of them come with significant risk factors to weigh.

  • Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (10th-round ADP): New QB may not equal chemistry, despite more chances. Has the highest ceiling of this group.
  • Evan Engram, New York Giants (11th): Finally stayed healthy for a full season last year but couldn’t find the end zone to save his life. NY added weapons around him to interfere with volume. Should score more but catch fewer balls.
  • Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11th): Sluggish return last season after a one-year layoff and was dependent on TDs once he found his groove. So many mouths to feed in this offense will create inconsistency.
  • Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings (12th): Finally gets a chance to showcase his skills as the TE1 but has struggled to stay healthy thus far. Talented and may finish as a top-10 TE with a few lucky bounces.
  • Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (12th): Ascending efficiency to date but now has more talent around him to contend with for touches.

Rounding out the remaining five tight ends most commonly drafted:

  • Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (13th): Mega potential if the quarterback situation doesn’t hold him back … should see more than enough targets to matter while Michael Thomas is out until around midseason. Value in red zone.
  • Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots (13th): Could be a sly TD monster, but like several others, QB situation warrants concern. May struggle with consistently delivering necessary volume.
  • Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers (14th): Awesome value this late for a proven veteran who has dialed up his scoring frequency in his twilight years. Reunited in LA with OC from Saints days.
  • Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks (14th): Knows the new system in Seattle and could shine if an injury takes out one of the top two receivers. Otherwise, erratic returns and more of a best-ball backup than weekly consideration.
  • Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (14th): Kind of a wild card right now … seems like he still may get traded, despite it not happening yet. If he sticks around, gamers could be frustrated with the timeshare between he and Goedert.

Fantasy football takeaway

Understand how construction models around running backs and receivers play the largest role in determining when drafting a tight end is best for a roster. Teams with impressive core strength at the two positions have the ability to take fliers on tight ends. Players in smaller leagues shouldn’t feel compelled to take a second tight end after choosing a stud. Some owners will draft an early TE when they feel the value of a fringe RB1 just isn’t there.

Speaking of a stud, it’s tough to argue with drafting Kelce or Waller. There’s so much depth at receiver this year that going RB in Round 1 and then Waller in the second offers a smarter balance, but Kelce is just so consistently awesome that he might as well be a top-five WR or running back in PPR formats.

Doubling on the position in the second half of drafts is perfectly fine, and if your team is strong enough in other areas, there’s nothing wrong with taking a pair of risk-reward types rather than blending in a safer target.

The position is volatile. Recognize your willingness — or lack thereof — to accept the challenge of weekly rotation at the position vs. being more in the mode of “set and forget” with a top-six tight end.

Fantasy football draft prep: When to take a quarterback

What is the best strategy for selecting a quarterback?

It’s not a question. It is a directive.

There are many ways to address the selection of your first quarterback in a fantasy football draft, but there also is the best way to do it.

And that is waiting on the position.

Time after time, inexperienced players draft a quarterback too early, or they draft two stud quarterbacks. These inexcusable errors at least make sense … the name value is what jumps out at people. It’s a quarterback-driven league, and most casual gamers recognize the top passers over lesser known running backs and receivers.

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This is not to say it is impossible to win drafting an early-round quarterback. It definitely is doable, but that pick, along with all of the other core positional choices in the first half of the draft need to be on the mark. That rarely happens for a novice player.

Recent trends

Looking back at the last five years, the table below illustrates how the first five drafted quarterbacks, in terms of ADP, fared in relation to their fantasy ranking at that season’s end.

The “fantasy ranking” columns represent where in the order the player finished and is then correlated to his respective draft placement. For example, the first quarterback chosen each of the past five seasons has not finished as QB1. Or QB2. Not even QB3. Twice as many finished as fantasy backups as they did even being within in the top six quarterbacks.

The results were substantially better for the second quarterback chosen, but the third player picked barely qualified as as starting fantasy passer.

The median finish for the first chosen QB was 10th, whereas the fifth quarterback drafted finished as the median QB2. Each one of the five were better than QB10. Among the 60 quarterbacks selected in the top 12 over the past five seasons, 38 percent finished the year as backups in fantasy points generated. That said, 35 percent ended up as solid QB1s, finishing in the top six at the position.

  • The first quarterback was drafted at an average of 25th overall in the past five years.
  • Eight of the 10 quarterbacks chosen between Rounds 6 and 7 turned out to be fantasy starters, proving to be the sweet spot in recent times.
  • Twenty-one of 30 QBs drafted in the first half of perceived starters proved to be top-12 quarterbacks.
  • Sixteen of the 30 QBs drafted in the back half of perceived starters proved to be top-12 passers.

Those final two points tell an interesting tale. Quarterbacks drafted inside of the top six players at the position per ADP more frequently finished as starters, showing gamers tend to get the names right, but not necessarily in the correct order. Twenty-three percent of those picks fell within the tier of QB10-12 in actual results. But a drafter is 1.5 times more likely to pick a top-three QB in ADP and get a QB10 or worse than a QB9 or better.

The takeaway from the final bullet should be waiting gives nearly a coin flip odds that the player will finish in the top nine at his position. Granted, the same 47 percent were backups, but this should be a lesson in perceived vs. relative value. Waiting longer offers a better chance to pick up value elsewhere and mitigate inflated risk of blowing it in the early rounds.

Furthermore, any quarterback drafted between the QB10-12 slots often is chosen with greatly depreciated expectations of being a plug-n-play starter. If a QB is chosen as the QB10 and finishes QB15, big whoop … this is far less punitive than choosing a player at QB2 and getting a QB7. We’re talking some 70 picks elapsed in between, whereas only 29 picks separate 10 and 15, on average.

Median
fantasy
rank		 ADP Order
drafted		 Fantasy
ranking		 Percentage of
fantasy ranking
1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13+ 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13+
QB10 25 1st 0 1 1 1 2 0% 20% 20% 20% 40%
QB5 35 2nd 2 2 0 1 0 40% 40% 0% 20% 0%
QB11 61 3rd 0 0 0 4 1 0% 0% 0% 80% 20%
QB10 70 4th 0 2 0 1 2 0% 40% 20% 20% 40%
QB2 77 5th 3 1 1 0 0 60% 20% 20% 0% 0%
QB1-3 2 3 1 6 3 13% 20% 7% 40% 20%
QB4-6 3 4 1 1 6 20% 27% 7% 7% 40%
QB7-9 0 3 4 2 6 0% 20% 27% 13% 40%
QB10-12 5 1 1 0 8 33% 7% 7% 0% 53%
Summary 10 11 7 9 23 17% 18% 12% 15% 38%

Looking at it from a different perspective, what is the “return on investment” (ROI) for early-, mid-, and late-round quarterbacks?

Order
drafted		 ADP Median
fantasy rank		 Fantasy
ROI		 Order
drafted		 ADP Median
fantasy rank		 Fantasy
ROI
1 25 10 -9 12 117 13 -1
2 35 5 -3 13 121 7 6
3 61 11 -8 14 127 10 4
4 70 10 -6 15 129 7 8
5 77 2 3 16 134 13 3
6 83 19 -13 17 145 12 5
7 87 17 -10 18 149 19 -1
8 94 14 -6 19 153 18 1
9 99 4 5 20 163 9 11
10 102 20 -10 21 171 25 -4
11 111 6 5

This data from the same time period shows the top four quarterbacks by ADP actually returned negatively on investment. Only three of the top 12 quarterbacks per ADP even turned a fantasy profit. Between QB13-21 selected, seven of the nine paid dividends. In a nutshell, the majority of quarterbacks drafted after Round 8 lived up to and/or exceeded expectations. Only 12.5 percent of QBs chosen before that exceeded their perceived value.

Now this isn’t a perfect way of evaluating the situation, because injuries cannot be predicted. It is a sound baseline to depict that early-round quarterbacks generate a greater loss on profit potential. Again, none of this is saying you cannot win your league with an top-three quarterback, but it does mean your other picks must be more accurate.

QB1-3 produced an average of -7 ROI
QB4-6 produced an average of -5 ROI
QB7-9 produced an average of -4 ROI
QB10-12 produced an average of -2 ROI
QB13-15 produced an average of +6 ROI
QB16-18 produced an average of +2 ROI
QB19-21 produced an average of +3 ROI

To be fair, the bar is lower for anyone drafted as a perceived backup, and the trends show the later the player is chosen, the less likely they are to return QB1 results. There’s a middle ground to be understood. If the QB13 gains an average of six spots in actual results, he is a QB7 — nice win for fantasy value. If he’s a QB3 and finishes as a QB10, while he is indeed a top-10 fantasy quarterback, gamers need to recognize the loss they experience in profit from other positions between those 60 average draft spots in between those specific placements. Sensing a theme?

Two-quarterback leagues

This format radically changes the valuation of the position. A good rule of thumb is taking your first quarterback target in the two rounds and then coming back for a second in the next four rounds.

Presuming the league is a 12-teamer, you have 24 quarterbacks being used each week. It’s improbable to find 24 NFL starting quarterbacks worthy of a typical fantasy play on a given week, so there’s often “plug your nose” decisions to be made if you indeed wait it out to the latter stages before securing your No. 2 and 3 passers.

2021 prediction for traditional leagues

Which quarterbacks should meet or exceed their draft placement in 2021?

No. Name Team ADP
1 Pat Mahomes KC 2.09
2 Josh Allen BUF 3.12
3 Kyler Murray ARI 4.06
4 Lamar Jackson BAL 5.01
5 Dak Prescott DAL 5.07
6 Justin Herbert LAC 6.01
7 Aaron Rodgers GB 6.03
8 Russell Wilson SEA 6.09
9 Tom Brady TB 7.06
10 Matthew Stafford LAR 7.12
11 Jalen Hurts PHI 8.11
12 Ryan Tannehill TEN 8.12
13 Joe Burrow CIN 9.08
14 Matt Ryan ATL 10.11
15 Trevor Lawrence JAX 11.03
16 Deshaun Watson HOU 11.06
17 Baker Mayfield CLE 11.12
18 Trey Lance SF 12.1
19 Kirk Cousins MIN 13.02
20 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 13.11
21 Justin Fields CHI 14.02
22 Jameis Winston NO 14.07
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS 14.07
24 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 14.08
25 Cam Newton NE 14.09
26 Derek Carr LV 14.11

The players highlighted in green stand the best chance of substantially exceeding their draft placement. One can argue until the end of time over which players in what order and why, so understand this is an exercise in identifying profit potential and not a rule. It’s not saying QB26 Derek Carr will outplay QB2 Josh Allen. It’s saying Josh Allen has to outplay all other QBs not named Patrick Mahomes to live up to the investment. It is more likely Carr plays like, oh, say, QB16 (spot starter) than QB26 (likely remains on waivers all year) is all.

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The most important take away from this year’s review of ADP vs. projected results is that fantasy footballers must realize the drop-off in statistical returns is so small. The difference typically is the elite fantasy players post more huge games, while the low-end starters often plod along with serviceable but unsexy results.

Look at it like this … the average loss in fantasy points per game from QB1-3 to QB4-6 last year was 1.1 points per game. From QB4-6 to QB7-9 was 2.2 point per contest, and following that trend downward is an average loss of only 1.7 points from the last grouping of starting QBs to the previous tier. From QB1-3 to QB10-12 is only 3.9 fantasy points, on average. Odds are you’ll be able to make that up, especially in PPR leagues, at running back, receiver and tight end by waiting on quarterback.