Category: Derek Carr

Saints shouldn’t rule out an early-round quarterback because of Derek Carr

The Saints shouldn’t rule out an early-round quarterback because of Derek Carr. His injuries, age, and performance make it a priority:

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr has left many fans frustrated with his play on the field. That is the reason many fans want the Saints to draft a quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft. A recent Pro Football Focus mock draft connected the Saints to LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. It doesn’t seem the coaches are as frustrated. Still, the front office should feel compelled to draft a quarterback early because of Carr’s mounting injuries.

This year, Carr has suffered two concussions, injured his shoulder on two separate occasions and added a rib injury to the list this past weekend. Carr hasn’t been injured this often before. Carr is 32 and will turn 33 in March. This could be an aberration, but it very well could be a sign of things to come.

Injuries aside, 33 years old is not young in the NFL, even if Mickey Loomis would like to say it is. The pairing of Derek Carr and Dennis Allen may still be present in 2024, but the Saints should not rule out drafting a quarterback early. Age and health have to be factors just like player performance. A rookie quarterback can sit for a season and learn the game, but having the young franchise quarterback in the building will make a transition easier to life after Carr.

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Dennis Allen shares injury update on Saints quarterback Derek Carr

Dennis Allen shared an injury update on Saints quarterback Derek Carr, saying Jameis Winston will start in Week 14 if Carr can’t play:

What’s the latest on Derek Carr? The New Orleans Saints quarterback was rocked on a big hit from his former teammate Bruce Irvin during Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions, exiting the game with what was described as back and shoulder injuries, plus a concussion.

Saints coach Dennis Allen updated Carr’s status on Monday after the training staff had time to fully evaluate him. Allen said that while Carr’s shoulder checked out (he had previously suffered an AC joint sprain this season), his back issue was really more of a rib injury, and Carr will be entering concussion protocol for the second time in less than a month.

“We’ll evaluate him as we go throughout the week to see what his availability will be,” for Sunday’s game with the Carolina Panthers, Allen said.

It sounds like a long shot for Carr to recover from these injuries in time for kickoff. He’s been knocked out of three different games this season and brain injuries can’t be overlooked, especially a series of them happening so close together like this. So if Carr can’t suit up, it’ll be Jameis Winston in the starting lineup, not Taysom Hill or Jake Haener.

Allen explained: “There’s a reason (Winston is) here as our backup and if Derek is not able to go, the plan right now would be Jameis would be in there and we’d put a plan together that gives him an opportunity to have success.”

Winston has gone 6-4 as the Saints’ starting quarterback across 10 games from 2021 to 2022, and he’s one of the better-qualified backups around the league. But his limitations on Sunday in relief of Carr were clear; he threw a dangerous pass that was tipped by the defense and saved by Chris Olave, and all three of his final pass attempts fell incomplete during the Saints’ last possession. As Allen said, they had their reasons for bringing him back as Carr’s backup, but there are reasons they went looking for a new starter, too. To this point Carr hasn’t proven he was the right choice.

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Derek Carr entered concussion protocol, dealing with back and shoulder injuries

Derek Carr entered concussion protocol, dealing with back and shoulder injuries

Derek Carr was banged up on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints quarterback took a big hit from Detroit Lions linebacker Bruce Irvin that drew a foul, but the damage was done. After receiving assistant from the Saints medical staff, Carr left the field and didn’t return.

Afterwards head coach Dennis Allen confirmed what the team had previously announced: Carr entered concussion protocol and underwent evaluation for injuries to his shoulder and back. It’s the second time this season Carr has gone into league concussion protocol, and this is the third time he’s dealt with a shoulder injury. Allen declined to specify whether that’s the same AC joint sprain Carr suffered earlier this year and aggravated a few weeks ago.

Allen also said they wouldn’t consider shutting Carr down after this recurring shoulder injury, as was the case last season when Jameis Winston suffered damage to several vertebrae in his lower back. When pressed on the topic Allen only responded that it’s a different situation.

The Saints are playing at home the next two weeks against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, so they won’t have to ask Carr to fly cross-country with his injuries. But the question remains whether he’ll be able to return to the starting lineup in time for next Sunday’s game with Carolina. If he can’t go, Winston is likely getting the starting nod with Taysom Hill playing his usual role and Jake Haener backing him up, but we’ll have to wait and see for sure.

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Derek Carr injured on a big hit by Lions pass rusher Bruce Irvin

Derek Carr was injured on a big hit by Lions pass rusher Bruce Irvin, with Jameis Winston entering to replace him:

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr was rocked on a big hit from Detroit Lions defender Bruce Irvin, and he had to leave the game with assistance from the training staff. Irvin was fouled for roughing the passer on the play. A trainer’s cart initially came out to ferry Carr to the locker room but he waved it off to leave under his own power.

It’s the third time this year Carr has left the game with an injury; he was knocked out of losses to the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings with injuries to his throwing shoulder and a concussion. The nature of this injury and whether he’ll be able to return late in the fourth quarter is unclear. Jameis Winston is filling in for him. Stay tuned.

Update: The Saints announced that Carr was doubtful to return after entering concussion protocol and receiving treatment for back and shoulder injuries.

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3 of the NFL’s active pick-6 leaders have started at QB for Dennis Allen

Dennis Allen might have a type. Three of the NFL’s top-five leaders in interceptions returned for touchdowns have started for him at quarterback:

Does Dennis Allen have a type? Of the top five active quarterbacks in career pick-sixes (interceptions returned for touchdowns), three of them have started games for the New Orleans Saints at quarterback since Allen took over as head coach.

As noted by Nola.com’s Jeff Duncan, Andy Dalton ranks second among active passers with 18 pick-sixes in 169 games. Derek Carr is right behind him with 16 of them in 153 games. Jameis Winston rounds out the top-five with a dozen in 90 games.

Of course they aren’t alone; Kirk Cousins is also in the mix (14 in 150 games) and Matthew Stafford leads everyone with 30 of them in 201 games.

But it’s concerning that so many Saints quarterbacks rank high in this stat since Allen was promoted to head coach. He made the decision to sign Dalton in free agency last year and followed up by starting him for most of the season after Jameis Winston was injured and benched. It was Allen’s choice to recruit Carr to New Orleans this offseason, too.

Defenders typically don’t return an interception all the way to the end zone for a score, so this is more a ball security problem than anything. Carr has a career interceptions rate of 2%, but he’s whittled it down to 1.3% with the Saints this season. That doesn’t excuse his horrible ball placement on an interception against the Atlanta Falcons last week that was returned for a win-sealing touchdown. But we’ve got to acknowledge how critical his turnovers have been when they have occurred. Carr has thrown two pick-sixes this season against Atlanta and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

How does that compare to Dalton and Winston? Last year, Dalton threw an interception on 2.4% of his passes, which is near his career average (2.6%). And like Carr, his mistakes happened at critical times — just look at his two pick-sixes thrown against the Arizona Cardinals in the last two minutes before halftime.

As for Winston: his issues protecting the ball are well-documented, and his performance with the Saints the last two years speaks for itself. His career interceptions rate is 3.4% and he’s been picked off on 4.3% and a staggering 7.1% of his passes in the years since Sean Payton left the team. He’s only attempted 42 throws this year but he’s thrown more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) when asked to step in for Carr. He threw a pick-six against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, too.

Allen’s choices of quarterbacks haven’t exactly meshed with the philosophy of a head coach who wants to run a conservative, run-first offense that can protect the ball and settle for field goals while trusting its defense to win games. Whether they’re not clutch or just unlucky, the Saints quarterbacks — especially Carr, the current unquestioned starter — must play better.

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How many years are the Saints stuck with Derek Carr’s contract?

How many years are the Saints stuck with Derek Carr’s contract? The NFL’s worst red zone quarterback hasn’t met expectations, but he may not be going away any time soon:

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr has not met expectations through his first 11 starts with his new team, running an inefficient offense and deflecting responsibility to his coaches and teammates when pressed about it by the media. He’s hardly been the franchise savior Dennis Allen and Mickey Loomis trumpeted him as.

What are his salary cap hits looking like? Everyone knows by now that a four-year, $150 million contract isn’t exactly what it seems. There are so  many factors at play: funny money, void years, prorated signing bonuses, roster bonuses that can restructrured, guarantee triggers and incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned, with different cap implications). It’s tough to make heads or tails of it. With that in mind, here are Carr’s annual cap hits as his contract stands:

  • 2024: $35.7 million
  • 2025: $45.7 million
  • 2026: $55.7 million
  • 2027: $5.7 million (void)

So what are the Saints’ options? Releasing Carr outright in 2024 would cost an additional $17.1 million, totaling $52.8 million in dead money. That’s about 23.5% of this year’s salary cap, so we can rule that out. Carr has a no-trade clause, and there’s no reason (from his perspective) to waive it and go one-and-done in New Orleans. Not when his $30 million base salary is guaranteed anyway. He has all the leverage here after the Saints gave it to him in this contract.

What about a post-June 1 release? That would actually break even and not cost the Saints any more salary cap resources … on June 2. The Saints would still be paying $35.7 million for having Carr on the books, but they wouldn’t add anything to it. The problem is they would have to keep that $35.7 million salary cap hit on the books at the start of the league year, through free agency and after the 2024 NFL draft while figuring out other ways to get under the salary cap. They wouldn’t receive any cap benefits by cutting Carr with that post-June 1 designation until after June 1.

So what’s to be done? The most likely outcome now is the same as it was when Carr’s deal was finalized in March. The Saints structured his contract with a planned restructure in the 2024 offseason that will convert most of his base salary into a new signing bonus, saving them more than $23 million against the cap. It will also mean that Carr’s cap hit of dead money in 2027 will approach $11.5 million. That’s assuming he plays out his four-year deal. If he’s released before it expires, that dead-money cap hit will accelerate to the current year.

When might that happen? This was designed to be a two-year deal with a team option in 2025; that’s when the Saints have an exit ramp to decide whether keeping Carr is worth the price (and trouble) or if it’s better to move on. If they do restructure his contract in 2024 and then release him in 2025, it would leave about $33 million behind in dead money but still save the Saints roughly $13 million. So much depends on the salary cap’s continued rise; some estimates have it reaching as high as $282 million by 2025, which would make that dead-money hit for Carr significantly easier to swallow.

Oh, so $33 million, that’s all? It’s ridiculous that we’ve gotten to this point in the discourse surrounding Carr and the Saints, but that’s the reality. Carr hasn’t played well enough through his first 11 games to earn the promise of 57 more starts (plus any potential playoff games). He hasn’t played well enough to justify the contract the Saints paid him, even if it is in line with other starting quarterbacks’ deals, and he hasn’t performed at a high enough level to dissuade them from drafting a young passer to develop as the future of the franchise.

Is that likely? No, not with Allen as head coach, and Carr’s contract structure essentially bought him another year on the job. Carr is here because Allen recruited him. If the Saints are stuck with Allen’s quarterback anyway, they may as well make him go down with that ship. We can see Loomis making the case for a third futile year with Allen at the helm already, now that he’s got his quarterback with a full season to settle in (not that a nine-year veteran should need it). Can’t you?

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Blind test: How do the Saints’ post-Drew Brees quarterbacks stack up?

How do the Saints’ post-Drew Brees quarterbacks stack up? Ignore names and contracts and run the numbers in our blind test:

Life without Drew Brees has been hard on the New Orleans Saints. They’ve wandered the desert from one quarterback to the next, constantly searching for an oasis — only to stumble into one mirage after another.

When Derek Carr put pen to paper on a four-year, $150 million contract this offseason, it looked like the Saints had finally found what they were looking for. But their offense has left a lot to be desired with Carr under center, and comparing his performance to the quarterbacks who preceded him doesn’t paint a flattering picture.

Some quarterbacks (like Trevor Siemian) have a much smaller sample size than others. Some were only in New Orleans for one season (like Andy Dalton) while we have multiple years of data to work with for others (Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill). So while it isn’t the cleanest comparison, we’re looking at per-game averages and per-dropback stats as opposed to volume metrics to try and account for the variance in sample sizes.

And because this is a blind test, we’ll hide each quarterback’s identity until the end. We’re effectively taking the names off the jerseys to see how they stack up by the numbers, removing biases and factors like contracts and play callers. Here’s what we found, with the top performer in each category highlighted in bold text:

Mickey Loomis shares out-of-touch takeaways on Saints’ ailing offense

Mickey Loomis has nothing but out-of-touch commentary on the state of the Saints offense. It doesn’t matter if you gain yards if you can’t score points:

Proponents for change won’t like this commentary from Mickey Loomis. The New Orleans Saints general manager made his regular appearance on the Saints Hour with WWL radio and was asked about the state of the New Orleans offense — a unit that ranks 18th in points scored this season.

But to hear Loomis tell it, the Saints are right up there with the elite offenses of the world. After prefacing his statement with the importance of focusing on the positives (not the negatives, Loomis emphasized) in reviewing performance, Loomis pointed to the team’s yardage stats as proof of their success.

“There’s too many other things that are good signs. We’re 12th in the league in offense,” Loomis said, referring to their average of 347.1 yards per game. “We just had a game where we had 444 yards. We had five trips into the red zone. We’re top-10 in our league in trips into the red zone. So it’s hard to score if you’re not getting into the scoring area. We’re getting into the scoring area, and historically we’ve done a good job in that area for lots of different reasons, lots of different variables. We’re not doing that as well this year and yet I think we can.”

The problem is that success hasn’t materialized on the scoreboard. As Loomis said, the Saints are getting inside the opposing 20-yard line often (their 40 trips rank 8th-best around the league). But they’re stalling out with just 17 of those drives ending in touchdowns. That’s a conversion rate of 42.5%. Only three teams are worse. They went 0-for-5 on those trips into the red zone last week.

Much of the blame falls on Derek Carr’s shoulders. The nine-year veteran has been the least effective quarterback in the NFL in the red zone this season. 18 different quarterbacks have thrown 40 or more passes in the red zone this season, and Carr (47 attempts) ranks 17th in completion percentage (44.7%) and 18th in touchdown passes (8). He’s a liability.

Of course there are others at fault here. Pete Carmichael has been ineffective when his offense has gotten in scoring position. Penalties on normally-reliable players like right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and dropped passes by receivers known for good hands like tight end Foster Moreau have cost the team points.

But Loomis isn’t worried, or at least he isn’t expressing that publicly. Maybe Carr can just flip a switch and suddenly learn how to hit those tight-window passes in the red zone that he’s struggled with throughout his career.

Still, pointing at the box score instead of the scoreboard rings hollow. The Saints must end drives with touchdowns, not field goals. Otherwise they’re just going to keep getting outscored and keep losing games. If that’s the future Loomis is determined to see through, well: it’s his legacy on the line for guiding the Saints here.

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Dennis Allen won’t blame Saints’ red zone problems on Derek Carr

Dennis Allen won’t blame the New Orleans Saints’ red zone problems on Derek Carr. It’s a bad look when he doesn’t hesitate to criticize other players:

This isn’t a good look for Dennis Allen. The New Orleans Saints head coach was asked Wednesday about the team’s red zone struggles, and how much blame his handpicked quarterback Derek Carr deserves for them.

“We’re not really in the business of blame game. We’re in the business of production,” Allen told NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill. When asked what Carr can do to improve in that phase, Allen responded, “To try to single him out is not the right way to go.”

But Carr is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season when the offense gets inside the opposing 20-yard line. 18 quarterbacks have attempted 40 or more passes in the red zone this season, and out of that group Carr ranks 17th in completion percentage (44.7%) and 18th in touchdown passes (8). He’s struggling where other players are thriving.

Even players on his own team: Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill are a combined 5-of-6 in the red zone with 3 touchdown passes. Obviously that’s a dramatically smaller sample size (and teams guard those quarterbacks differently from Carr), but it highlights his unique struggles. It’s not something Allen should be deflecting from. His handpicked quarterback is underperforming. There may be other factors at play like Pete Carmichael’s play calling and dropped passes by his receivers, but Carr is the common denominator. He’s paid more than anyone else on the team because he’s responsible for more of their failures or success than anyone else.

And what’s concerning is Allen’s willingness to call out other players this season — like Chris Olave. The second-year wide receiver was blamed by Allen for incorrectly running his route on an incomplete pass back in Week 7, saying that, “Chris didn’t run that route the way that it needs to be run. That’s what happened and we ended up having a throw-away there.”

Except that’s not what happened. Michael Thomas pointed out publicly online that Olave wasn’t part of the progression on the play, which was designed for him to clear out space for Taysom Hill. When the throw to Hill wasn’t there, Carr should have switched to Rashid Shaheed or Thomas himself, who were next in the progression. Carr threw the ball away instead and went after his teammate after the play, and Allen endorsed him for it.

It’s easy to understand why Allen is giving Carr special treatment: his future with the team is tied to Carr’s performance, and he badly needs the quarterback to thrive after convincing the front office to overpay Carr so steeply. A failure for Carr is a direct reflection on Allen. Carr is here because Allen believed he was an upgrade over Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton and the other quarterbacks the Saints have tried to lean on in life after Drew Brees, but at this point there isn’t an appreciable difference between Carr’s execution of the offense and what we’ve seen from guys like Trevor Siemian — except that Allen is making excuses for him every week.

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These Saints players are on the 2024 Pro Bowl Games ballot

Voting has opened for the 2024 Pro Bowl Games. Here are the New Orleans Saints players on the ballot:

Voting has opened for the 2024 Pro Bowl Games, and a number of New Orleans Saints players are on the ballot. Who will make the trip to Orlando for this season’s festivities?

Last year, the Saints were represented by linebacker Demario Davis (in his first-ever Pro Bowl appearance) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (in his eighth). Derek Carr was also in attendance, though he was repping the Las Vegas Raiders on the AFC roster.

Here are the Saints players you can vote for: