Category: CeeDee Lamb

Cowboys 20202 Prop Bet Manifesto: Where you should let it ride

Degenerate gamblers unite. The NFL season is nigh, and with it comes a cornucopia of ways to diversify a budding portfolio with long-term investments in the player-prop market. This exact column last year had a hit rate of two out of three, a …

Degenerate gamblers unite. The NFL season is nigh, and with it comes a cornucopia of ways to diversify a budding portfolio with long-term investments in the player-prop market.

This exact column last year had a hit rate of two out of three, a percentage that Meat Loaf would say, “ain’t bad.” This year the dive is only getting deeper. Three picks is no longer enough satiate this thirst. Here’s to building on a successful campaign and making some extra money on all things Dallas Cowboys.

A quick note, all lines come from Bovada and can be found here, though they are subject to change at a moment’s notice.

Dak Prescott

There’s no place better to start than with quarterback Dak Prescott. Coming off the best statistical season of his career, the odds-makers are projecting a decline in 2020 in his gross totals.

Passing yards over/under 4319.5 (-130 over, EVEN under)

Only three times in head coach Mike McCarthy’s 13 previous years with the Green Bay Packers did his offense fall in the bottom half of the league in passing attempts. The lowest of all was in 2014, where the Packers ranked No. 20 in attempts, throwing the ball 536 times. That would be the second most attempts for Prescott in his career, trailing only the 2019 season.

It’s easy to imagine the Cowboys throwing the ball less in 2020, but given McCarthy’s history, even if that happens it it is unlikely to be a significant decrease. The bigger concern facing Prescott is simple regression. He was incredibly efficient last year, notching over 8.2 yards per attempt, so even a modest drop off can make the over a tough bet to win.

The Verdict: Over. Prescott staves off the yardage regression to become just the 12th quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 4320 yards in consecutive seasons.

Passing touchdowns over/under 27.5 (-145 over, +110 under)

Prescott had never thrown for more than 23 touchdowns until 2019, however the bettors are heavily favoring the over for the Cowboys quarterback in 2020.

The biggest reason why is a swerve from the Jason Garret regime that was notorious for its conservative nature in the red zone. McCarthy has been historically pass happy inside the 20-yard-line. The comparison was made by The Athletic’s Bob Sturm, who noted the stark difference between the two head coaches.

The Verdict: McCarthy’s aggressive nature gets Prescott to the over.

Interceptions thrown over/under 9.5 (-115 over, -115 under)

Prescott has averaged just nine interceptions a game in his career, but part of that average is skewed by his anomaly of a rookie season in which he notched just four. The increased aggressiveness will lead to many good things on the football field, but it’s unlikely to lower his interception total.

Verdict: Over

Ezekiel Elliott

Rushing yards over/under 1275.5 (over -110, under -120)

Rushing touchdowns over/under 9.5 (over -115, under -115)

The public is off of running back Ezekiel Elliott’s bandwagon for the moment, as the under for yardage is currently seeing more action. That would make the second year in a row the Cowboys bell cow fails to hit that specific over, and it’s not hard to see why. There are three things working against Elliott here.

The first is his decline in production from his rookie year on. His yards per game have gone down every single season he’s been in the league.

Year Yards per game
2016 108.7
2017 98.3
2018 95.6
2019 84.8

That’s an uncomfortable truth. His 2016 performance was bolstered by an offensive line that was head and shoulders above the rest of the league. That’s no longer the case due to age and attrition. But the elephant in the room is whether or not Elliott’s 2019 is a sign of things to come or just a blip on the radar.

The second issue is backup running back Tony Pollard, who played well in his limited time on the field his rookie year. It’s likely he’ll be used more than the 18% of offensive snaps he saw in 2019, and even a small increase can eat into Elliott’s totals.

The final, and perhaps most important is Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has never had a running back rush for 1276 yards in a season. The most yardage in a season belongs to Ryan Grant and his 1253 yards back in 2009. Otherwise, some truly pedestrian numbers have led McCarthy’s teams on the ground. On two separate occasions under 500 yards did the trick.

To be fair, McCarthy has never had a back like Elliott during his time in the NFL. For those who like the over, there’s one thing that matters most in determining whether or not he delivers: winning games.

In games where Dallas jumped out to a big lead were the games in which Elliott was most effective. In the Cowboys’ seven double digit wins in 2019, he racked up 778 yards on 142 attempts and six rushing touchdowns, good for 5.47 yards-per-carry.

This is the formula the Cowboys need to follow in 2020: throw to build a lead and then lean on the running game to salt away the clock.

Verdict: Over on both. An increased focus on the passing game results in a more efficient Elliott.

Amari Cooper

Receiving yards over/under 1050.5 (over -110, under -120)

Receiving touchdowns over/under 7.5 (over -115, under -115)

Receptions over/under 74.5 (over -115, under -115)

The lines above could pass for Amari Cooper’s career averages and no one would blink an eye. Through his career his 16 game average per Pro Football Reference is 74 receptions for 1059 yards and 7 touchdowns. These are the exact kind of lines that strike fear into the hearts of gamblers everywhere.

There’s been two problems that have plagued Cooper and have kept him from entering the upper-crust of wide receiver society: injuries and consistency. It’s not exactly a state secret that Prescott’s No. 1 target battled injuries throughout 2019 and the Cowboys Wire’s KD Drummond outlined the stark contrast between his stellar performance at home and his concerning play on the road.

For Cooper to hit the over it’s going to require nearly perfect health. Unfortunately, he’s missed a considerable amount of time heading into the season and as of Wednesday before kick off wasn’t a full participant in practice and is working on the resistance cords.

Verdicts: With the tenuous nature of Cooper’s health heading into 2020, it’s best to stay away from the receptions and yards bets. Go under on 7.5 touchdowns, as he had just nine targets inside the red zone last year, and may be the fourth best receiving option near the goal line in 2020.

Michael Gallup

Receiving yards over/under 900.5 (over -120, under -110)

Michael Gallup may be the most slept on wide receiver in the NFL. He’s on the short list of receivers to top 1100 yards in one of their first two seasons. He did that in 2019 in just 14 games while getting knee surgery in the middle of the season. No big deal.

He was already in the shadow of Amari Cooper and then the Cowboys went ahead and drafted CeeDee Lamb, pushing him further from the spotlight. There’s concern from some that there won’t be enough targets to go around, but that shouldn’t be an issue. The only regret is there’s not more Gallup props to throw money at.

Verdict: Over.

CeeDee Lamb

Receiving yards over/under 750.5 (over -130, under EVEN)

Receiving touchdowns over/under 4.5 (over -170, under +130)

Again, like with Cooper and Gallup before him, it comes down to a question of targets. Fortunately for Lamb fans, there’s plenty to go around. First, it’s fair to assume, given McCarthy’s history, that the passing attempts won’t see a significant drop off in 2020 so the Dallas offense and quarterback Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball early and often.

Secondly, it’s not exactly a one to one equation, but the Cowboys do have targets to replace. Specifically to former tight end Jason Witten and former wide receiver Randall Cobb. Those two combined for 166 targets in 2019. Some of those will surely find their way to starting tight end Blake Jarwin, but there’s a significant amount left on the table.

Highly-touted rookie wide receivers often struggle transitioning to the NFL. There’s several reasons for it, but a lot of times it’s because they quickly are drawing attention from the opposing team’s better cornerbacks on a weekly basis. In Dallas, Lamb has the luxury of being with two wide receivers who demand attention, making this an easy pick.

Verdict: Over on both. Lamb turns in one of the best rookie receiving campaigns in team history.

NFC East Season Preview: Advanced stats tells of coming battle for supremacy

Cowboys look set to rebound from a disappointing 2019 season with key offensive additions

The NFC East was the only division without a 10-win team in 2019, and one of just two divisions (along with the AFC South) without a 12-win team. Two of the group picked in the top-4 in the 2020 NFL Draft. Overall, it was a year without any great teams, a year without any playoff success, and overall simply a year to forget.

What should be expected from the division in 2020?

Looking at the underlying numbers, one might find some very different interpretations of how these teams performed, despite their win-loss records. A peek at the 2019 numbers reveals some clues as to what is coming.

Quick note; we will be using a stat called Expected Points Added (EPA) fairly heavily from here on out. Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

The Washington Football Team and the New York Giants are down in the bottom left with the rest of the teams that picked in the top-10 in the draft. There’s the Eagles right in the middle, a somewhat average team by EPA on both offense and defense. And there’s the Cowboys over on the right, sitting beside the Super Bowl winning Kansas City Chiefs.

Wait, what? The 8-8 Cowboys that didn’t even win the division?

That’s right.

Over the course of the entire season, the Cowboys consistently were able move themselves into a better position to score. The knock you’ll often hear is they played really well when they either already had a big lead or when they were already losing big. And we can check that by filtering this same chart down to only plays where they had a win probability between 20% and 80%.

This does seem to check out, as the Cowboys are now hiding behind the Titans, Texans, and Seahawks, a few tiers below the top teams like the Chiefs. The Eagles also look worse under this constraint, particularly on defense. Meanwhile, Washington and New York are looking about the same.

We can also visualize this by looking at, say, Dak Prescott’s performance (as measured by EPA/play) at each given win probability. This really illustrates that the Cowboys were fantastic when games weren’t close, but below average when the score was tight.

But last season is past, and all four of these teams are looking to improve on their 2019 record in this upcoming season. Which teams made offseason moves that will pay off in 2020?

Washington Football Team

The most notable addition for Washington has to be Chase Young, the prospect often considered to be the most talented player in the 2020 draft class. The numbers crowd and the film crowd may butt heads plenty, but in this case everyone could agree: Chase Young is special.

Young finished with the best ever PFF overall grade for a college edge defender. His pass-rush win rate (how often he beats his blocker) was far and away the best among Power 5 edge rushers in 2019.

The real question going into next season is how much he can help a Washington defense that gave up the sixth-most points in the NFL last year. There’s been a, um, spirited debate among football fans and analysts regarding the relative importance of pass rush compared to pass coverage.

It is of course better to be good at both if at all possible, but there is compelling evidence that points to pass coverage being the primary driver behind a strong pass defense.

Will Chase Young wreck opposing quarterbacks? Probably. Will that turn Washington into an above-average defense? That’s debatable.

The other main question with Washington is whether Dwayne Haskins can make a jump in his sophomore season. He had a very forgettable start to his career but showed noticeable improvement with each successive start after Week 11.

Here we can see his EPA/play climb significantly, along with his Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), which is here given in decimal form. Haskins will need to continue this improvement if Washington wants to have any hope of a winning season in 2020.

New York Giants

The other team in the East with a top-5 pick added a trench player on the offensive side of the ball in tackle Andrew Thomas. Thomas was the third-highest graded tackle in the FBS per Pro Football Focus, and had the highest overall grade for an SEC tackle of any player since La’el Collins in 2014. They’re hoping he’ll shore up the protection for Daniel Jones, another sophomore quarterback hoping to make a leap in 2020.

Jones had the second-lowest clean pocket percentage among the 30 quarterbacks with 300+ dropbacks in 2019, better than only Sam “I’m seeing ghosts” Darnold. His progression will be key to the Giants, thought it is not as clear as what we saw from Haskins above.

Jones had his good days and he had his bad days.

Where he really shone was in his ability to use his legs, something the Giants never really had with Eli at the helm. Jones gained 228 yards on 27 scrambles last year. His 19.1 EPA on scrambles was the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. A game plan that accentuates his mobility, a la the Bills with Josh Allen, could help propel them to a much-improved offense. They’ve also now got an offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett who is familiar with quarterbacks who can scramble.

On that same note, Garrett just made the move from a team that loved to #FeedZeke to a team with Saquon Barkley. It’s probably safe to assume we’ll see plenty of running being established in New York in 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles drafted a quarterback in the second round of the NFL Draft less than a year after handing Carson Wentz a $128M extension. Jalen Hurts might not make an appearance in 2020, but that was the biggest splash of their offseason.

In terms of more immediate impact on the team, Philadelphia graciously drafted a wide receiver for Wentz to throw to this year. The three players with the most catches for the Eagles in 2019 were a tight end, a tight end, and a running back. Wentz finished 17th in EPA/play last year with a CPOE just below 0, but the context of losing DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Nelson Agholor all for significant periods of time makes it hard to be too rough on him. The Eagles are hoping the addition of Jalen Reagor will add some much-needed depth to their wide receiver room and give Wentz some more legitimate targets beyond Zach Ertz.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles seemed to disagree with the idea that pass coverage is more important than pass rush. Perennial Expected Sack (xSack) leaders Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham showed up again in terms of their pressure rates, but neither was able to convert that to big sack numbers. As a whole, the Eagles were middle of the pack in terms of actual sacks, but that undersells their ability to pressure the quarterback.

Only seven teams were able to pressure the quarterback more than Philly. There was also a huge dropoff after the Eagles here, indicating that they were if not in the top tier of pass rushing teams, they were no worse than the second tier. As pressure rates are far more consistent than sack rates, expect an uptick in the number of sacks Philadelphia nets in 2020.

Dallas Cowboys

Finally we come to the Cowboys.

Dallas us coming into the season with the a new head coach for the first time in a decade. The big question now is what exactly Mike McCarthy’s first non-Aaron Rodgers offense will look like. There was plenty to be excited about last year with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The offense opened up early in the season with an abundance of early-down passing and motion at the snap, but it tapered off pretty quickly to around league average.

Prescott started the season on fire. At the halfway point, he ranked third in both EPA/dropback and CPOE, the only QB to rank in the top-3 in both categories. He even sparked some MVP talk. However, much like the team as a whole, his play fell off a bit towards the end of the season. He didn’t finish among the league’s elite, but he was definitely above average by all accounts.

The big offseason addition for Dallas was the gift of CeeDee Lamb.

Lamb adds another weapon to this already dangerous passing attack, and might encourage the new coach and young offensive coordinator to sling it around even more this season. Yahoo Sports writer Matt Harmon went so far as to compare Lamb to superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins.The prospect of Lamb and Amari Cooper lining up on either side of the field is a mouth-watering one for any Cowboys fan. The only wrinkle is the lack of a true slot receiver among Dallas’ top-3 wideouts. Cooper, Lamb, and Michael Gallup all profile as outside receivers, and their main slot man Randall Cobb left in free agency last year. Lamb has expressed interest in playing in the slot, and if that can work out, this offense gets even more intriguing.

There is reason to believe every team in the division got better in the offseason. Philadelphia and Dallas were both good teams with bad luck last year, and it’s likely we’ll see them battling for the NFC East crown once again this year, only this time with double-digit wins.

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Cowboys News: Gallup leap in Year 3? CB has Covid, Kicker comp is off

Michael Gallup doubled his production in 2019 from his rookie campaign, but improving his drop issues and playing alongside CeeDee Lamb could see his numbers increase even more. Even after resigning with the team in March, kicker Kai Forbath was released on Saturday.

Wide receiver Michael Gallup doubled his production from his rookie campaign in 2019. However, improving on his drop issues coupled with the addition of CeeDee Lamb could see his game reach an even higher plateau this season. Kicker Kai Forbath re-signed with the Cowboys on a one-year deal in March, but with a longer investment tied into the new special teams coach’s guy made a decision before the competition.

Safety Donovan Wilson shined during last year’s preseason but will have a much tougher route in 2020 with exhibition games being eliminated as he looks to compete for a starting role. The current pandemic has again landed at the Cowboys doorstep as cornerback Saivion Smith has been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Stephen Jones’s excitement about the receiving corps, how Mike McCarthy embracing analytics could lead to huge results, and where Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott land in a 2016 redraft and more are covered in the news and notes.

Cowboys reserve cornerback Saivion Smith diagnosed with COVID-19 :: Dallas Morning News

Saivion Smith becomes the second Cowboys player (Jon’Vea Johnson) to land on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. This brings the total of players impacted through quarantine or opt out to four.

Mike McCarthy’s embracing of analytics could be the key difference for the 2020 Dallas Cowboys :: Blogging The Boys

Mike McCarthy let it be known that he became up to date with the analytical side of football during his time away from the NFL, and that could lead to monster success in 2020.

S Donovan Wilson Facing Challenging 2nd Year Without Preseason Games :: Inside The Star

Safety Donovan Wilson was the Cowboys defensive standout during last year’s preseason with three interceptions. Unfortunately, the versatile second-year talent is facing a tough 2020 with exhibition games now canceled.

Stephen Jones hasn’t ‘seen anything like’ Cowboys WR corps :: NFL

The addition of CeeDee Lamb has Cowboys Executive Vice President Stephen Jones excited about the team’s aerial assault.

Plexiglass, trackers and high-tech laundry: From Jerry Jones on down, rigorous COVID-19 protocols await Cowboys :: Dallas Morning News

Extreme measures have been taken to keep The Star in Frisco safe for all Cowboys players and personnel.

How DeMarcus Ware opened a fitness center during a pandemic :: ESPN

Former Cowboys great DeMarcus Ware has used his time during the COVID-19 pandemic constructively by opening up a fitness center.

After an impressive 2019 campaign, Michael Gallup can take another leap in 2020 :: Blogging The Boys

Improving on his drop issue and having CeeDee Lamb as a member of the Cowboys receiving corp could see Michael Gallup take his game to another level in 2020.

Covid-19 ends Cowboys kicker comp before it starts, Forbath released :: Cowboys Wire

Even after signing him to a one-year deal in March, the Cowboys have released kicker Kai Forbath, leaving Greg Zuerlein as the only player at the position on the roster.

Prescott No.1 in 2016 redraft, Cowboys’ Elliott drops out of Top 10 :: Cowboys Wire

A redraft of the 2016 NFL Draft has new landing spots for Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The former went from a fourth-rounder to the top overall pick, while the latter fell out of the top 10 after being drafted fourth overall.

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Cowboys News: Rookie class signed, Jamal Adams saga ends

The entire 2020 draft class for Dallas are under contract. After nearly a year, the Jamal Adams to Dallas saga ends. News and Notes.

There’s been plenty of excitement and anticipation for the Dallas Cowboys 2020 draft class, and now they’re all signed to their rookie contracts. For almost a year, the speculation of All-Pro safety Jamal Adams coming to Dallas has been a very hot topic. Now, that scenario can finally be put to bed as the New York Jets have now traded him to the Seattle Seahawks.

Amari Cooper set several career highs in 2019, however, advanced stats say he could be the most improved player on the Cowboys based on production. One of the interesting questions about the Cowboys offense this season will be how will Mike McCarthy’s history of utilizing the fullback position coincide with Kellen Moore who rarely did in 2019. Potential harmful salary cap implications, three players who could rise up the depth chart, and how 2020 is an important year for the safety position and more are covered in the news and notes.

Related: Contract details for Cowboys 2020 draft class

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How will Mike McCarthy’s love of fullbacks manifest in Dallas? :: Blogging The Boys

Kellen Moore rarely used the fullback position in 2019. Mike McCarthy, however, finds them to be a valuable asset. So how will their philosophies work together in 2020?

Preseason games are where we first realized how good Dak Prescott was, and now that is gone :: Blogging The Boys

With no preseason games set for the 2020 season, it puts a lot of young players on the Cowboys roster in a difficult position without actual game reps.

14 Cowboys who could be named to 2021 Pro Bowl that may not happen :: Cowboys Wire

K.D. Drummond discusses how even though the 2021 Pro Bowl won’t likely happen that guys like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarcus Lawrence, and more have a shot to get the nod.

2020 is a Critical Year for the Safety Position in Dallas :: Inside The Star

Xavier Woods and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are in contract seasons, Darian Thompson re-signed in March, and Donovan Wilson still has to develop. This sets up a crucial year for the Cowboys at safety.

Film room: Top candidates to climb Cowboys’ depth chart at camp, including a potential new O-line starter :: Dallas Morning News

John Owning of the Dallas Morning News breaks down how Connor McGovern, undrafted free agent Francis Bernard, and Cedrick Wilson could make a name for themselves in 2020.

National Writer: Amari Cooper will be the Cowboys’ most improved player based on production :: Dallas Morning News

Even though Amar Cooper had a career year in several categories in last season advance stats show he could be even better in 2020.

Seahawks’ deal for Jamal Adams further proves the NFL’s win-now mentality :: Seahawks Wire

Seattle thought it worth it to trade two No. 1 picks and a third-round selection to acquire the All-Pro safety still on his rookie deal. The dream of his playing for his hometown of Dallas is now done.

Details of the 2020 NFL season are becoming clear, including the salary cap monster that could torment the Cowboys next year :: Dallas Morning News

The 2021 salary cap floor has been set at $175 million. If it comes close to that the ramifications could be rough for the Cowboys.

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Cowboys agree to terms with top pick WR CeeDee Lamb

The Dallas Cowboys have signed first round draft pick Cee Dee Lamb to a four-year contract worth $14.01 million with a fifth-year option.

The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to terms their first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. No. 17 overall selection, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, will ink a four-year, fully guaranteed deal worth $14.01 million along with the standard fifth-year option as reported by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

Lamb joins Bradlee Anae, Ben DiNucci and Reggie Robinson as rookies who’ve agreed to terms ahead of camp.

The remaining three draft picks, cornerback Trevon Diggs, defensive tackle Neville Gallimore and center Tyler Biadasz are expected to finalize their deals as well before training camp opens.

Lamb is a key addition to the wide receiver corps headlined by Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, projected to be wide receiver No. 3 in an already explosive offense. Reports have also said Lamb can play a key role in the return game if the Cowboys so choose. Having one of the top wide receivers in college football added to an offense already ranked at the top has Cowboys fans salivating at what could be this season.

Cowboys 2020 Rookie Guide

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News: Dak Prescott deadline quickly approaches, Cowboys world not standing still

All things news and notes for the Dallas Cowboys on July 14, 2020.

It’s Wednesday morning and the Dak Prescott contract deadline, at least for this year, is just hours away. With varying reports of communication, or lack thereof between the two sides, it’s still a mystery how things will play out.

In other news, Prescott’s wide receiving options are the best in the business, a mock draft has the team in the market for yet another weapon and running back Ezekiel Elliott is giving back. There’s also a look at a new Cowboy getting in some off-field work as well as some young guns trying on their new gear.

No contact between camp Dak and the Front Office

Several people have reported exactly this, that the team trying to get Prescott paid and the team that gets Prescott’s play haven’t spoken about a new deal and that a final offer has long been presented. While that’s certainly discouraging, it’s not exactly foreign territory for this front office.

Prescott’s camp has been in contact with Cowboys’ brass

Or maybe there has been.

Bryan Broaddus, former scout and contributor at the Cowboys’ site has heard otherwise. There’s been instances in the past of Broaddus getting information from folks in high places, but whether this is true or not remains to be seen.

Sources: Cowboys want Randy Gregory involved with team while awaiting reinstatement :: ESPN

The man who has half as many suspensions as he does career sacks is still waiting on reinstatement. A report Monday claimed the Cowboys had given up hope he would suit up in 2020, but Todd Archer indicates the exact opposite. To what extent Gregory would be involved with the team is unknown, but it may just be to foster a healthy environment for the human, not just the player.

Every NFL Team’s Biggest Sleeper Heading into Training Camps :: Bleacher Report

It’s always Donovan Wilson season here at the Cowboys Wire and now Bleacher Report names Wilson as the biggest sleeper on the team. He’ll have his own set of challenges finding playing time after the signing of free agent Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, but maybe a new coaching staff finds more reason to get him in the fold.

Pro Football Focus ranks Cowboys WR group tops in NFL :: Cowboys Wire

The makeover of the Cowboys wide receiving corps is fit for an episode of the best in reclamation programming. In 2018, the weapons on the outside were drab, entering 2020 it’s totally fab as Pro Football Focus calls them the best in the game.

2021 mock draft ships Cowboys TE with Rob Gronkowski comps :: Cowboys Wire

A quarterback can never have too many weapons. This mock draft has a tight end who’s garnering high praise heading to Dallas. Whether or not this would be the wisest use of resources, but maybe head coach Mike McCarthy is a charter member of team forty-burger.

Ezekiel Elliott gives back

 

New look Cowboys

 

Aldon Smith putting in work

Pro Football Focus ranks Cowboys WR group tops in NFL

The Dallas Cowboys have gone from worst to first in terms of talent at the wide receiver position.

In 2018, the Dallas Cowboys front office went into an NFL season with a receiving corps that was totally undermanned. Following the release of Dez Bryant, there were people who are paid in actual United States currency to surround quarterback Dak Prescott with nearly nothing on the outside. The pu pu platter of pass catchers was predictably pedestrian, combining for a whopping 147 receptions, 1810 yards and nine touchdowns.

For a single player, that’s an all-time great campaign, with a similar stat line to Marvin Harrison in 2002 or Michael Thomas in 2019. As a group? They stunk. Their performance was such that the Cowboys traded a first round pick for Amari Cooper from the then Oakland Raiders midway through the season. Now the best wide receiving corps in the league resides in Dallas, at least according to Pro Football Focus.

Dallas had one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league in 2019, and it started with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup becoming one of the NFL’s best receiving duos. The Cowboys’ passing offense has been far more efficient since Cooper came to Dallas in 2018, as evidenced by the 122.0 expected points added (EPA) on his 907 plays compared to just 2.95 EPA on 425 plays without him.

In recent years the Cowboys haven’t shied away from making their strengths stronger. This strategy has been noticeable along the offensive line, a spot into which the front office has continually thrown resources. In 2020, despite having Cooper and Gallup already in place, Dallas selected wide receiver CeeDee Lamb with their first-round pick, giving them an embarrassment of riches on the outside.

It’s impossible to field an entire team of quality starters, so while the top end of the Cowboys’ depth chart is rock solid, there’s a place in the wide receiver’s room for additional talent.

PFF mentions Devin Smith as “the most intriguing name of the group” but the rest of the wide receivers on the roster will have to prove themselves, not only against everyone on the roster, but against every remaining free agent and down-roster player throughout the league.

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Cowboys News: Tyron Smith ranked top OT, Ezekiel Elliott overpaid?

The Cowboys seven-time Pro Bowler Tyron Smith was ranked the NFL’s top offensive tackle by ESPN. Based on average annual salaries and recent production Ezekiel Elliott was named the Cowboys most overpaid player.

Even as he continued to battle nagging injuries in 2019, Dallas Cowboys star left tackle Tyron Smith made his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl. He was recently ranked the top offensive tackle in the NFL by ESPN, but there’s a few names missing from the list. Ezekiel Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million dollar extension before the beginning of last season and finished in the top-five in several statistical categories. However, based on average annual salary and recent production he was surprisingly named the Cowboys’ most overpaid player.

The July 15 deadline for Dak Prescott to sign a long-term deal is rapidly approaching, but according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Cowboys are willing to be patient until the end. Amari Cooper is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, yet opinions on him vary amongst league executives. CeeDee Lamb’s most effective route, how Amari Cooper could be primed for his best season, and three things you can learn from preseason rankings are covered in the news and notes.

 

Cowboys’ Tyron Smith Praised as ‘On Another Planet’ by Anonymous NFC Exec :: Bleacher Report

ESPN is currently releasing its rankings of the top 10 players at every position. One anonymous NFC executive had high praise for the Cowboys Tyron Smith when it came to the league’s top offensive tackles. Question, where is La’el Collins and Mitchell Schwartz, can right tackles get some love?

Dak Prescott Rumors: ‘Cowboys Are Not Worried’ About QB’s Contract Situation :: Bleacher Report

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Cowboys are willing to go all the way up to the July 15 deadline to get Dak Prescott signed long-term.

‘There’s something holding him back’: NFL execs weigh in on Cowboys’ Amari Cooper, a ‘polarizing’ wide receiver :: Dallas Morning News

Opinions on Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper are split amongst NFL personnel. Some see him as a top 10 receiver easily, while others have him ranked a lot lower.

CeeDee Lamb’s most productive route while in college :: Blogging The Boys

CeeDee Lamb was one of the best receivers in college after the catch, and he did a lot of that damage running out routes.

Cowboys are contenders for the best quarterback room in the NFL :: Blogging The Boys

Connor Livesay breaks down how Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, and Ben DiNucci could give the Cowboys the league’s best quarterback room.

Every NFL Team’s Most Overpaid Player Entering 2020 Season :: Bleacher Report

Surprisingly, star running back Ezekiel Elliott was listed as the Cowboys most overpaid player.

Why Amari Cooper might be primed for his best season yet :: The Landry Hat

Having Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb alongside him and another year working with Kellen Moore could see Amari Cooper have the best season of his career.

Hall says Dak would be ‘extremely happy’ to get $35 million :: 247 Sports

Recently on NFL Total Access, Deangelo Hall discussed Dak Prescott’s contract situation. Although he doesn’t view him on the level of Patrick Mahomes, he feels he’s worth the $35 million dollar price tag he commands.

Ranking the NFL’s top 10 offensive tackles for 2020: Best of the league’s bodyguards :: ESPN

In ESPN’s series ranking the top 10 players at every position, the Cowboys Tyron Smith was ranked the best offensive tackle in the NFL.

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Lamb projected top rookie WR, but will Cowboys offense allow for it?

A look at CeeDee Lamb’s odds of being the most productive receiver in a crowded rookie class.

Expectations for rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb are sky high. He will wear the famed No. 88, joining the likes of Drew Pearson, Michael Irvin and Dez Bryant in Dallas Cowboys lore. He ranks sixth in terms of odds of winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1500. And now NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund is projecting Lamb to be the most productive first-year receiver in the league.

But how much room is there for a rookie wide receiver in a room that already holds veterans Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup? And what would it take for Lamb to outstrip his draft class in terms of numbers?

Here’s what the best rookie wideout from each season have been able to put up over the last decade:

Player Year Team Tar Rec Yards TD
Mike Williams 2010 TAM 129 65 964 11
A.J. Green 2011 CIN 115 65 1057 7
Justin Blackmon 2012 JAX 132 64 865 5
Keenan Allen 2013 SDG 105 71 1046 8
Odell Beckham Jr. 2014 NYG 130 91 1305 12
Amari Cooper 2015 OAK 130 72 1070 6
Michael Thomas 2016 NOR 121 92 1137 9
JuJu Smith-Schuster 2017 PIT 79 58 917 7
Calvin Ridley 2018 ATL 92 64 821 10
A.J. Brown 2019 TEN 84 52 1051 8
Average 112 69.4 1023.3 8.3

Hitting the average would require around 70 catches for over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. Those are lofty goals to say the least. Though the numbers have settled down over the last three years, the averages are mouth-dropping. The 112 targets the aforementioned receivers have averaged is just under both Cooper and Gallup’s totals from last year, 119 and 113 respectively.

It’s not certain Lamb will get to that kind of total, though there is a clear path to do so. The Cowboys ranked 10th in pass attempts in 2019, with a total of 597. 166 of those attempts were to players who’ve departed in free agency. Randall Cobb, who defected to the Houston Texans, and future Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten, now of the Las Vegas Raiders each had 83 passes come their way.

It’s hard to imagine Prescott targeting Cooper and Gallup less, so Lamb would have to assume the entirety of Cobb’s 2019 targets and nearly half of Witten’s. That would make three different receivers with a staggering 112 targets each.

That leaves two questions: how often has that happened and how does that help an offense? Not often, as it turns out. According to Pro Football Reference, there’s only been 11 such instances since 1992. Here’s the complete list:

Team Year Off DVOA Rank
New England Patriots 2011 31.9% 3
St. Louis Rams 2000 26.7% 1
Atlanta Falcons 1995 14.4% 7
New England Patriots 2014 13.5% 6
Atlanta Falcons 2012 6.1% 12
Dallas Cowboys 2012 6.1% 11
Baltimore Ravens 2006 0.9% 15
New York Jets 2000 -0.1% 17
Chicago Bears 2014 -0.1% 14
New England Patriots 1994 -0.8% 13
Arizona Cardinals 1996 -4.2% 20
Average 8.6% 10.81

Having three players eat up that many targets is rare, but it does often indicate an effective offense. Just one of these teams were below league average using using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric which judges teams while adjusting for performance.

Lamb winding up the most productive receiver of the 2020 draft class would likely require supreme efficiency in less targets than the usual suspects receive. That’s not out of the question by any means as he’ll rarely face the opposing team’s top flight cornerback given the depth in the room.

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Cowboys News: Zeke’s COVID fallout, Lamb and Cooper run routes, Larry Allen made guys sit out

Also in Cowboys news, a surprising game-by-game prediction for 2020, hypothetical trade targets, and a look at second-chance players.

Slow news day? Never in Cowboys Nation. The revelation of Ezekiel Elliott’s COVID-19 diagnosis is still front and center, possibly casting the league’s best-laid plans for a full 2020 season in jeopardy.

Elsewhere, more buzz from this week’s naming of the “all-decade team,” more eager anticipation of CeeDee Lamb’s Dallas debut, and more trade talk (albeit purely hypothetical) regarding Jamal Adams. Plus, we’re looking at the regular season schedule game-by-game, the Cowboys roster in terms of positional battles, and how Amari Cooper does what he does… with breakdown from the birthday boy himself. All that and more- including a history lesson about a forgotten football pioneer, and a story about how one Cowboys Hall of Famer caused a rash of phantom illnesses for his opponents- make up the Wednesday edition of News and Notes.

Cowboys news: Ezekiel Elliott’s diagnosis re-focuses the issues for the 2020 season :: Blogging the Boys

With Cowboys star running back Ezekiel Elliott testing positive for COVID-19, the NFL is being forced to reevaluate all plans heading into 2020.

NFL all-decade: Best player on each NFC East team, every position :: ESPN

While several Cowboys were named to The WorldWide Leader’s “all-decade” squad, only one can earn the title of Best Cowboys Player of 2010-2019. Tyron Smith helped Dallas “change their draft thought process with his success,” and “an argument can be made that he is on his way” to a bronze bust in Canton.

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb will lead opponents to slaughter :: Cowboys Wire

Our player profiles continue with an in-depth look at the team’s first-round draft pick, the explosive wideout who will almost certainly “be the foundation of the Cowboys offense in a short period of time.”

Dallas Cowboys: 6 matchups to look forward to in 2020 :: The Landry Hat

The Cowboys will have plenty of interesting one-on-one battles on their roster this season. Lucas Mascherin of The Landry Hat breaks down six of the best.

Film room: Exploring 3 ‘fantasy’ player-for-player trades for the Cowboys, including a deal involving Jamal Adams :: Dallas Morning News

John Owning gets hypothetical (with help from the Twitterverse) and looks at a trio of possible one-for-one swaps. How would you feel about Trysten Hill for Raiders tight end Foster Moreau? Jourdan Lewis for Bengals defensive end Carl Lawson? How about La’el Collins for Jets safety Jamal Adams? Owning would bite on just two of them…

Mailbag: Are people forgetting about Zuerlein? :: The Mothership

Don’t be shocked if the veteran kicker (who’s reuniting with his longtime special teams coordinator) ends being the top free-agency upgrade of 2020. “Zuerlein’s numbers dipped last year,” notes staff writer David Helman, “but he was ridiculously reliable for seven years before that. And he was playing through injuries for most of 2019 – a fact of which I’m sure John Fassel is very aware.”

105.3 Fan ‘Nosebleed Seats’ show: Jerry’s silence, Crayton pulling up :: Cowboys Wire

Our own K.D. Drummond covers all the bases in this radio chat, ranging from the recent Romo-versus-Eli debate to COVID-19 and how it may (or may not) have reset expectations for Mike McCarthy’s first year on the Dallas sidelines.

Cowboys Assistant George Edwards To Participate in NFL Coaching Summit :: Inside The Star

Senior defensive assistant coach George Edwards will participate in a virtual quarterback coaching summit hosted by the NFL and the Black College Football Hall of Fame.

Glazer’s NFL offseason mailbag: Will Josh Allen lead the Bills to the playoffs? :: The Athletic

Scroll past the Buffalo forecast, and there are three Cowboys items of interest from the NFL insider. One, Glazer says the Dallas front office will “absolutely not” let things with quarterback Dak Prescott reach the holdout stage. Two, he thinks the Cowboys will be “a strong contender” this year. And three, he shares a few cool stories about Larry Allen, including how opposing defensive tackles routinely came down with a mysterious illness the very week they were set to square off against the massive Cowboys guard.

Adam Rank’s 2020 record prediction for Cowboys :: NFL.com

Going one game at a time, the network writer sees Dallas starting slow at 1-2, but finishing very strong (including a late-December shocker) to wrap up the NFC East title and claim the conference’s No. 2 postseason seed with a 12-4 record.

Has giving out so many second chances been worth it for the Dallas Cowboys? :: The Athletic

Jon Machota looks at Jerry Jones’s proclivity for taking on risky reclamation projects, from Alonzo Spellman and Adam “Pacman” Jones to Terrell Owens and Charles Haley. Some have worked out; others have not. It remains to be seen which category Aldon Smith will fall into.

How to run the perfect routes with Cowboys WR Amari Cooper :: Touchdown Wire

In an NFL Game Pass Film Session, Kurt Warner and Brian Baldinger sit down with the four-time Pro Bowler for a clinical breakdown of how the wideout technician handles his business- both physically and mentally- on gameday.

NFL pioneer Fritz Pollard’s life story more relevant than ever :: NFL.com

There’s no direct Cowboys connection per se, but the story of one of the NFL’s first Black players- and its first Black coach- is a fascinating and important chapter that fans of every team should know about. Check out this preview of the NFL:360 deep-dive into the groundbreaking life and career of Fritz Pollard.

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