Category: Analysis

Boston’s hot start in context — what is the Celtics’ ceiling?

The Boston Celtics are arguably bound to reach the Eastern Conference Finals with the start they’ve had to the season.

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While the season may be far too young to draw any ironclad conclusions about how the title hunt for the NBA’s 30 franchises may look come April, one thing has become clear:

The Boston Celtics are for real.

Now, what “real” means in terms of postseason play is among the many things that haven’t been settled in terms of what we’ve seen so far from what many assumed to be a flawed roster — on paper — and which may yet prove to be one.

But much like how the roster looked on paper last season proved more akin to what was expected this season, and vice-versa, even the best analysts have been known to misread potential.

Last season, most of them fell for the allure of a star-powered lineup dominating the Atlantic Division, the East and maybe even the league as a whole. Now, more than a few Celtics fans are joining said analysts in scratching their collective heads and in a good way for a change.

At 8-1, the team sits squarely atop the league standings and barring a phenomenal game from Washington Wizards point guard Isaiah Thomas (who is still beloved in Boston) will likely expand that to a .900 record by Wednesday.

By the end of the week, the Celtics could easily bring their record to 12-1 after facing off against the depleted Golden State Warriors and struggling Sacramento Kings before they face a fairly tough stretch against the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets on the backside of their five-game West Coast road trip.

While a fair part of the last 15 years have been spent in rebuilding mode, four seasons over that span have mirrored the excellent start that Boston may have.

The 2017-18 Celtics began like a house on fire, winning 15 consecutive games after an 0-2 start and you’d have to hearken back to the Big Three era in Boston for the next such smoking start.

In 2009-10, the Celtics’ most heralded trio of the millennium got out to a similarly strong 8-1 record, though that actually was among the first signs of decline for that group when placed in a larger context.

The season prior, fresh off a championship win, Boston managed to jump off to a sizzling 27-2 start. In their championship season, the Celtics started the season 20-2.

In fact, of those three other noted seasons, they either made the Eastern Conference Finals (2009, 2018) or the NBA Finals (2008).

Is that predicative of similar outcome from this group?

If you’d asked such a question in October, it’s one that would have been shrugged — perhaps even laughed — off.

This team was materially weaker in terms of talent and structure both, with some of the same potential issues regarding their upcoming free agency period and the often-hungry mouths that contract years create still looming.

Yet, the clean sweep and culture shift orchestrated by the front office in bringing in high-character players from top to bottom, coupled with eliminating at least one of those aforementioned issues in signing fourth-year wing Jaylen Brown to a high-value long-term deal has proved prescient.

It seems to have re-ignited some of the fire we saw driving that 2017-18 Celtics squad far deeper into the postseason than most imagined, leaving many scrambling to understand how a team that lost two top-50 players can be doing so well.

Chemistry aside, adding All-NBA point guard Kemba Walker has been a major factor as well, as has been the resurgence of again-injured (though mercifully less seriously) Gordon Hayward, who has shown flashes of being the player Boston had hoped to deploy when they signed him in the summer of 2017.

Strong play and development from younger players — Brown and Tatum in particular — have also helped, with even this season’s expansive rookie class playing significant (and surprisingly mature) roles.

For a team with seven (yes, seven) such novates, the fact they are on pace to have one of the lowest turnover rates in league history suggests another factor needs to be considered.

That factor would be that Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, disappointed by the team’s lack of chemistry last season (per MassLive’s John Karalis) working diligently to find the best combinations he can have on the floor.

Chemistry, it seems, cannot be entirely ignored no matter whether we believe it a byproduct of other habits that lead to winning or a tangible intangible that any real contender needs to succeed.

After last season, the case for the former is a strong one. The question of whether this team is actually a contender given the tectonic shifts within the league’s elite teams over the summer is still a legitimate one though.

It is, as are many things, too early to tell. However, the signs of the Celtics becoming a truly special team are already undeniable.

Power rankings: Bills losing stronghold on top-10 placement

Buffalo Bills in national power rankings polls heading into Week 11.

The Bills couldn’t muster up enough positive plays and point on the board against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in Week 10. Buffalo lost 19-16.

Because of that, the Bills aren’t moving up in power ranking polls around national media outlets. The Bills are starting to fall out of the top-10, a place they’ve been hanging around the past few weeks.

Here’s a look around those national polls and where the Bills sit, heading into Week 11:

USA Today

17. Bills (15):

Their play is getting incrementally worse, and schedule forecasts incrementally harder with Miami, Pittsburgh among opponents that no longer project as lay-ups.

Touchdown Wire

11. Buffalo Bills

(6-3. Last week: 9)

One of the reasons — perhaps the primary reason — the Bills selected Josh Allen with the seventh pick in the 2018 draft, despite serious concerns about his accuracy to all levels of the field, was Allen’s howitzer of an arm. Buffalo’s coaching staff surely thought it would be relatively easy to correct this. Not so, and it really showed in the Bills’ 19-16 loss to the Browns, in which Baker Mayfield made a few more plays than Allen did. Buffalo’s defense allowed a crushing 82-yard drive late in the fourth quarter, but it was Allen’s inability to respond that should really concern the team. Per Pro Football Focus, Allen was 0-for-5 on passes of 20 or more air yards in this game, and for the season, he’s completed just 12 of 43 such passes for 350 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions and a passer rating of 39.7. Only Carolina’s Kyle Allen has a worse passer rating on deep balls among quarterbacks who have taken at least 50% of their team’s snaps this season, and Kyle Allen was nobody’s idea of a franchise quarterback when the season began.

NBC Sports

10. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Last week’s rank: 11

Bills lose and move up? Outside a few teams, this league is falling toward the mean. Bills are in line for a tumble. There are plenty of good teams left on the schedule.

CBS Sports

9. Bills (9)

At 6-3, they are still the Wild-Card leader. But they’ve lost two of the last three games and haven’t looked good doing so. They need more offense.

ESPN

13. Buffalo Bills (6-3)

Week 10 ranking: 13

Most important game left: Dec. 15 at Steelers

The Steelers have been resurgent over the past few weeks, winning four of five games to vault into AFC wild-card contention. With the Colts, Raiders and Titans all jockeying with Buffalo and Pittsburgh for the conference’s two wild-card spots, this late-season matchup will go a long way toward deciding who gets it — and establishing a tiebreaker.

Sporting News

15. Buffalo Bills, 6-3 (13)

The Bills have been good at winning battles of attrition, but you knew they were due for that method to fail on the road against a desperate Browns team that tried to give away the game several times. Josh Allen is simply not playing well enough for them to feel comfortable about their wild-card status.

Bleacher Report

High: 11

Low: 23

Last Week: 11

Week 10 Result: Lost at Cleveland 19-16

The shine is coming off the Buffalo Bills.

After starting the 2019 season 5-1, the Bills have no lost two out of three after falling to the Browns in Cleveland. The reason for that mini-slump isn’t hard to pinpoint.

While the Bills remain a stout defensive team, the offense is sputtering.

Despite facing a Browns run defense that entered Week 10 allowing the third-most yards per game in the league, the Bills managed just 84 rushing yards Sunday—and a third of those came courtesy of quarterback Josh Allen. Allen didn’t do the Bills many favors throwing the ball, hitting on just 22 of 41 throws and missing open receivers on multiple occasions.

“Given their record, schedule and the fact that this isn’t the best year for the AFC, the Bills are probably going to make the playoffs in 2019,” Davenport said. “But Sunday’s loss showed why I can’t take Buffalo seriously as a contender. The Bills just don’t have the offense to hang with the Patriots in a playoff game. Or the Chiefs. Or the Texans. One and done, anyone?”

Gagnon is not sure they’ll even get that far.

“Josh Allen was again useless on deep throws and useless under pressure as a bad Bills offense cost Buffalo the game in Cleveland,” he said. “That unit just isn’t good enough, and the defense doesn’t make enough plays. With a tough schedule coming, Buffalo will be lucky to finish with a winning record despite its 6-2 start.”

Yahoo! Sports

11. Buffalo Bills (6-3, LW: 7)

By now we kind of know the deal with the Bills. They’re not bad but not as good as their record. They shouldn’t have lost to the Browns, but it wasn’t a shock. They are 6-3 and in almost no danger of missing the playoffs because their schedule still lines up well. You can practically pencil them in for a game at the No. 4 seed on wild-card weekend, and nobody outside of Buffalo will be too excited to watch.

NFL.com

16. Bills (6-3)

Previous rank: No. 13

The Bills looked like a middle-of-the-pack team on Sunday against the Browns, hence their placement on the Power Rankings. We saw a breakdown in three phases in Cleveland: On offense, Josh Allen sailed a couple deep balls past open receivers (sound familiar?), and Buffalo was held under 20 total points for the fifth time this season. On defense, the Browns were able to march 82 yards on 10 plays for the go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter. On special teams, kicker Steven Hauschka missed two-field goal attempts, including the 53-yarder that sealed Buffalo’s fate in the final minute. At 6-3, there’s no need to panic. The schedule stays light, with winnable games against the Dolphins and Broncos over the next two weeks. Take care of business there, and a playoff ticket is close to punched. But can this team be trusted right now?

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Who has bigger quarterback issues, Bears or Rams?

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky’s struggles are no secret to Chicago. But what about his friend Rams QB Jared Goff, who’s also struggling?

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The Chicago Bears’ quarterback struggles are no secret this season in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky has been scrutinized on a weekly basis — everything from his play to his weekly press conferences. That’s what happens when you’re struggling on a bad team that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender.

Some Bears fans are already clamoring for the offseason, where they hope Trubisky’s replacement awaits. But Chicago still has another seven games left to evaluate the former No. 2 overall pick to see if he’s worth sticking with.

Trubisky’s off to a good start to the second half of the season after a three-touchdown effort and a 131.0 passer rating in a 20-13 win over the Detroit Lions last Sunday.

Another team that knows something about a struggling young quarterback is the Bears’ Week 11 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams.

Jared Goff, who struggled in his first season under defensive-minded Jeff Fisher, thrived in the next two seasons with offensive guru Sean McVay. He quarterbacked a Rams team that went to the Super Bowl last season — and he was paid handsomely for it, nabbing a four-year deal worth $134 million with $110 million guaranteed.

But lately, Goff has been struggling worse than his friend Trubisky. Goff, the former No. 1 overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft, has had five straight games with a completion rate below 60 percent, according to NBC Sports Chicago. Trubisky has managed a passer rating above 60 percent in four of his last five games.

While Trubisky has an 85.2 passer rating this season, Goff’s is lower at 82.7. Trubisky has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season to Goff’s 11 touchdowns versus nine interceptions.

Goff has a slightly higher QBR of 39.4 (which ranks 28th) while Trubisky has a QBR of 35.9 (which ranks 31st).

You could say that the Bears are better off than the Rams, who have already paid Goff a massive extension. At least the Bears haven’t paid Trubisky yet.

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Fumbles and ball security sore spots in Seahawks win over 49ers

The Seattle Seahawks were able to escape the San Franciso 49ers Week 10 despite five fumbles – three for losses – Monday night.

The Seahawks were able to head home with a victory Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers, although it wasn’t always pretty. Seattle struggled with ball control throughout the game, posting three lost fumbles for a total of five fumbles throughout the contest.

Wide receiver DK Metcalf and running back Rashaad Penny both turned over the ball but San Francisco was unable to capitalize on the takeaways. Tackle Germain Ifedi, however, originally recovered a Russell Wilson fumble on a play before his own lost ball and had to watch the 49ers score a defensive touchdown as a result.

“We did a terrible job taking care of the football tonight, a miserable job,” coach Pete Carroll told reporters. “I don’t even recognize us when the ball is flopping around like that. We got a lot of work to do. We won’t win if we keep doing this. We have to take care of the football better than that.”

Carroll has always preached ball security but the concepts were lost on Seattle Monday night. For a team with the fewest turnovers in the league last season, it was difficult to watch at times.

There was one shining moment in the turnover battle when center Joey Hunt was able to save a Chris Carson fumble.

“It was a miserable night there, but one of the great plays of the night was Joey Hunt’s fumble recovery,” Carroll said. “You guys don’t make a big deal about that. Joey laid out, slid into it, cut it up just the way he’s supposed to. It was a huge play for us, because we come back and score after that. I think it was, we wound up second and 11 and we still overcame it, so a big play.”

Seattle has a bye week before facing the Eagles Nov. 24 and you bet ball security will be a point of emphasis when the Seahawks return to practice next Monday.

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After poor outing in Week 9, kicker Jason Myers rebounds against 49ers

After missing three kicks against Tampa Bay, Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers more than redeemed himself vs. the 49ers in Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers couldn’t have asked for a better ending Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers. Just one week removed from missing three kicks, Myers found redemption in Santa Clara.

Myers nailed two critical field goals in Week 10 — including the 42-yard winner in overtime — to ensure the victory for the Seahawks.

Coach Pete Carroll never doubted his kicker and his faith in Myers paid off in dividends.

“Yeah, man I’m so fired up for him,” Carroll said after the game. “We’ve got a long season. We’ve got so many kicks in so many games. We’re going to be like this all year and he’s going to have to keep making those kicks for us, and he will. Fortunately, it didn’t lose a game for us and here we go, we win a game with him. I hope you can see why it’s so important to support your people, and to stay with them, and hang with them and all that.”

Despite the misses against Tampa Bay, Myers was able to stay focused on the job ahead, kicking clean on Monday night. Myers was good on all three extra points and both field goal attempts.

“It’s just, to hang him out there, and leave him out there, and ostracize him and whatever, I don’t even know how to think that way, ” Carroll continued. “We love him … and he came through and had a big night, and shoot, they’re carrying him around in the locker room in there.”

The Seahawks will need more performances like that from Myers as they continue their quest for the playoffs.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers preview: Sixers look to make it two wins in a row

The Philadelphia 76ers will look to make it two wins in a row against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Philadelphia 76ers returned home on Sunday and put a screeching halt on a dreadful three-game losing streak by knocking off the Charlotte Hornets. Now, they will look to make it a winning streak when they host Collin Sexton and the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday.

They will have to do it without Al Horford, who will miss the game for a scheduled rest day with it being the first game of a back-to-back, and possibly without Ben Simmons who is still dealing with an ailing AC joint sprain. The Sixers are a perfect 3-0 at home and they will need the contributions of others to make sure they get to 4-0.

With that being said, it’s time to dive into this matchup with the works:

How to watch Sixers vs. Cavaliers

  • Date: Tuesday, November 12
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Wells Fargo Center Philadelphia, PA
  • TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, NBATV

Injury report

  • Sixers: OUT: Al Horford(rest) QUESTIONABLE: Ben Simmons(right AC joint sprain) DOUBTFUL: Shake Milton(left knee bone bruise)
  • Cavaliers: OUT: John Henson(right hamstring strain), Dylan Windler(left lower leg stress reaction), Ante Zizic(left foot plantar fascitis)

Storylines

Limiting turnovers

Despite the 6-3 start, turnovers have been an eyesore for the Sixers. They committed 20 in their win over the Hornets on Sunday and it’s something that coach Brett Brown lamented after it was all over.

This is what I tell the team: until we can fix this, this is a house built on sand. It is fool’s gold and we have to find a discipline and a better way to control that. The turnovers in the first half, some of them were live ball, a lot of them were just getting things batted out of our hands. We can’t fool ourselves, this is a problem. This is a problem and we need to own it.

The Sixers are now committing 18.8 turnovers per game which is good for 28th in the league. That will not get it done for a championship-contending team.

I’m the head coach. I’ve got to find a way to fix it. There needs to be a level of accountability with the players and that’s that. It’s not anything we take lightly, we don’t dismiss it, the times are over where you’re looking at some of the young guys and you can justify it. You can’t do that anymore and it’s time that we get better at that. The players know it, they understand it, but we’ve got to fix it.

Chemistry

The Sixers are a relatively new group. New players like Horford and Josh Richardson as well as reserves Raul Neto and Trey Burke have all played a key role on this Sixers team this season. That causes some confusion on the floor with guys learning a new scheme and it can be the cause of a lot of turnovers. Due to this fact, Richardson tries to put it into perspective for a lot of people.

It felt great, a win is always a great. A win is always positive energy in the locker room so after a tough skid, I think it was good for us to come out here and get this win. You’ve got to remember though we’ve only been playing together for three weeks, honestly in games so it’s going to take time for everything to jell.

Prediction

The Cavaliers will not be an easy win for the Sixers. Coach John Beilein has done a terrific job here in the early going of getting the most out of his players and getting them to play hard and Kevin Love is back healthy averaging 18.3 points and 13.4 rebounds for Cleveland. Also, Tristan Thompson is always a problem on the glass so it will be up to Joel Embiid to hold up his end of the bargain with Horford out resting. The Sixers are the more talented team so they should win, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Sixers in a close one

Sixers vs. Cavaliers season series

Game 1 November 12:

Game 2 November 17:

Game 3 December 7:

Game 4 February 26:

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5 takeaways from Seahawks’ thrilling 27-24 OT win over 49ers

The Seattle Seahawks defeated the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers with a statement victory. Here are five takeaways from the game.

The Seattle Seahawks (8-2) defeated the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers (8-1) on the road in overtime as the clock expired, obtaining perhaps their most important victory of the season. They now head into their bye week in the thick of the NFC West race. Here are five takeaways from Monday’s game.

The defense stepped up and showed drastic improvement at times

The Seahawks consistently got to the quarterback for seemingly the first time all year, in perhaps their most crucial game of the season. After surrendering 10 unanswered points to begin the game, the defense stiffened up and made plays in key moments. Jarran Reed strip-sacked Jimmy Garoppolo and Jadeveon Clowney recovered the ball, returning it for his second touchdown of the season and putting Seattle on the board. Quandre Diggs had a key interception off a pass that deflected off Kendrick Bourne’s hands and set up Seattle’s second touchdown to take a 14-10 lead. The defense also did enough in overtime to stop the 49ers offense and force a field goal try, which Chase McLaughlin shanked badly. However . . .

The defense dropped interceptions that could have sealed the game in regulation

On the 49ers’ final drive before overtime, Tre Flowers dropped an interception off another deflection by Bourne, bobbling it but failing to come up with the ball. Garoppolo then threw a ball directly to K.J. Wright, but he also failed to catch it. The ball to Flowers was tough to corral, but the pass to Wright was thrown right to him, and he could have sealed the game for Seattle right then and there.

Crucial fumbles and takeaways galore

Both offenses routinely had the ball stripped, and two of these fumbles were returned for touchdowns. In addition to Clowney’s fumble recovery for a TD, 49ers defensive end DeForest Buckner scooped up a fumble by Germain Ifedi after a fumble by Russell Wilson, returning it for a touchdown that San Francisco would put an exclamation mark on with a two-point conversion, cutting the deficit to 21-18. Clowney also had a strip-sack of his own, with Poona Ford recovering to set up a rushing TD by Chris Carson (who also had a fumble before the Seahawks’ second TD) to make the score 21-10 in favor of the Seahawks. Speaking of key fumbles . . .

DK Metcalf’s red zone fumble before halftime was costly

With just over a minute to go before the half, Wilson completed a pass to Metcalf. The rookie second-round pick tried to power his way through to the end zone, fighting through tacklers along the sideline. As Metcalf spun inside the 5-yard line, 49ers defensive back Jaquiski Tartt stripped the ball from Metcalf at the 2. It was more of a great play by Tartt than a mistake by Metcalf, but a golden opportunity to score was squandered.

Sweet redemption for Myers

After nearly costing the Seahawks the game against Tampa Bay last week with two misses, one of which came as regulation expired, Myers made two clutch field goals. His first was a 46-yarder that gave Seattle a 24-21 lead with 1:45 in regulation, and his second was the game-winning 42-yarder that went just inside the right upright after Kyle Shanahan nullified Myers’ first attempt (which he also made) by burning his final timeout. There were many fans wondering if Myers should have been cut after last week, and some outright clamoring for it. It’s safe to say he got redemption in Santa Clara.

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A look at the Thunder’s quality 3-point shooting to begin the season

The Thunder are ranked seventh in the league for 3-point percentage to begin this season.

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It may have taken starting a rebuild for the Oklahoma City Thunder to be a good 3-point shooting team.

And yet with the Thunder at 4-6 to start the season, they’re one of the best shooting teams in the NBA.

The Thunder made a season-high 17 3-pointers in their 121-119 loss Sunday night against the Milwaukee Bucks. Mike Muscala and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander each had a team-high four 3-pointers, and Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder each had three.

Through 10 games this season, the Thunder rank seventh in the league for 3-point percentage, shooting at a 37.5% clip. As a team, the Thunder make 11.5 3-pointers a game, and five players account for a good portion of those makes.

Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander, Terrance Ferguson, Danilo Gallinari and Darius Bazley combine for 8.7 of the Thunder’s 3-pointers per game. Each player has shot at least 38% from 3-point range.

Despite being two games under .500, the Thunder’s quality shooting has helped them remain competitive.

They’ve only shot below 36% from the 3-point line in two games. Both of those were losses, and in both games, they lost by 12 or fewer points. In games where they have shot 36% or better from deep, they’re 4-4. In each of the four losses, the Thunder have lost by single digits.

Having new players such as Paul, Gallinari and Gilgeous-Alexander has helped the Thunder improve their shooting.

Paul and Gallinari have both shot at least 37% from 3-point range in their careers. A rookie last season, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 36.7% with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Ferguson has also improved his shooting steadily over his career. He’s shooting 38.1% from three on 2.1 attempts. Bazley, a rookie, has shot 40.0% on 2.5 attempts. He ranks seventh among rookies for 3-point percentage, according to NBA.com.

In the past three seasons, the Thunder have been in the bottom half of the league for 3-point percentage. The last time they were in the top half was in the 2013-14 season, when they ranked 14th.

Their top two shooters last season were Jerami Grant and Paul George, but both players were traded this offseason to the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers, respectively. Ferguson was the team’s third-best 3-point shooter last season, hitting at a 36.6% clip.

The Thunder are rebuilding, but they have a budding young player in Gilgeous-Alexander. Paul and Gallinari are proven talents, so their leadership helps. Though the Thunder might not make the playoffs, their shooting ability gives them a chance to compete against most teams.

OKC will play the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Tuesday night.

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