Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams
The Battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy
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Can Air Force win their 7th straight against the CSU?
WEEK 9: Air Force Falcons 7-0 (4-0) vs. Colorado State Rams 3-4 (1-2)
WHEN: Saturday, October 28th — 5 P.M. MT/ 4 P.M. PT
WHERE: Canvas Stadium (Fort Collins, CO)
WEATHER: Snow in the evening will give way to lingering snow showers overnight. Low 19F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Brandon Baylor (sidelines)
RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)
SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 38-21-1
WEBSITES: CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): CSU | Air Force
SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.3
FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 18.6
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 72.25% chance to win (27.17-18.31)
Don’t blink, somehow we are already at week 9 of the college football season. Wedged in between games against Air Force’s primary rivals Army and Navy, is a “trap game” versus the CSU Rams.
The Falcons have been rolling through the season like a finely tuned F-22 Raptor. The most recent victim enroute to Air Force’s 7-0 start was their rival brethren of the sea. If you look at the score, nothing about their win over Navy is really eye popping. If you watched the game, your eyes would affirm what the story of this season has been telling you; The Falcons have an elite defense, completely suffocating the Mids. Navy wouldn’t have recorded a score, or even much more than 50 yards of offense were it not for Air Force playing an overtly conservative final drive to wind down the game. And news flash; their offense is not one dimensional.
Zac Larrier was a masterful conductor of the offense in a game that by most accounts, he was not expected to play. He was surgical throwing the ball completing 4/5 passes for 151 yards, which included a 94 yards touchdown pass to Dane Kinamon. He’s yet to throw an interception on the season. All of this couched with the obligatory nod to the fact he is the Mountain West Track champion. Larrier is playing his position at a level equal to or above anyone else in the MWC, period.
Awaiting the Bolts in Fort Collins is a more than capable Colorado State Rams team. Understanding the term capable is in no way a promissory note for victory. CSU has been very up and down this year, and in typical Jekyll and Hyde fashion, it’s going to be a matter of which variety of the Ram’s team shows up Saturday that will dictate how much of a threat they are to hand Air Force their first L of the season.
Jay Norvell and Matt Mumme seem to have settled on their quarterback now, which is essential in their pass heavy approach. Braden Fowler-Nicolosi has gotten a lot of attention for the statistics he’s posted in his time as a starter. And a major factor in those numbers would be the plethora of weapons he has to throw to. There are Bonafide Biletnikoff and Mackey award candidates on that CSU offense in Dallin Holker and Tory Horton. The production doesn’t stop there though, they have great depth in their pass catchers.
Air Force have not faced the kind of passing attack like they will this week. However, weather doesn’t look like it will be endearing to a pass heavy approach. And conversely, CSU has not faced a team like Air Force on either side of the ball. That’s not to inflate the greatness of the Falcons, it’s more of a reference to their unorthodox offense, and unprecedentedly stifling defense.
HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN TOPPLE THE RAMS
The talent on the CSU offense is well documented. This isn’t the first time they have featured tandems of wide receiver and tight end quality that rival anyone nationally. It’s almost what we have come to expect from the Rams. What we haven’t come to expect is wins as a result of the talent. One of the major reasons they’ve struggled to peak above mediocrity is their defense.
One of the worst defenses in the nation, the Rams are as bad as anyone at defending the pass, and their run defense is nothing to write home about. Air Force is not going to be met with the same resistance to the run as they did last week, in particular allowing their fullbacks to be the catalyst to their offense. CSU ranks 91st in run defense, surrendering 160 yards per game on the ground. Take a look at their schedule, there aren’t many elite rushing attacks on that schedule. Air Force must impose their will, leaning on the country’s number one rushing attack to lead the way.
If the stable of fullbacks don’t have a big game on the ground, it probably means John Lee Eldridge has some eye popping yards per carry numbers getting the ball on the edge. It is also likely that the 131st pass defense is taken advantage of by Larrier and crew while they load the box to try and contend the run.
Historically, even when Air Force has had a good defense, their achilles heel has been the secondary exposed by an effective pass game to open things up. It seems contrary to make that remark considering they rank 4th nationally at defending the pass, but their dominance at time of possession helps skew that statistic. This could be one of those games that the numbers don’t tell the story. Success defending the pass is going to be a group effort, getting after the quarterback and communicating at the second and third level. The experience of an Alec Mock and Trey Taylor will key in that regard.
The last area of focus is going to lean in on the Falcons strength, which is in the trenches. CSU has done a great job of getting after the quarterback, averaging three sacks per game. They have also protected the quarterback very well, especially when you consider how often they throw the ball.
The Air Force defensive front has line wreckers in Bo Richter and Peyton Zdroik. They need to be able to generate pressure on Saturday so Nicolosi isn’t comfortable working through his reads to these talented receivers. Meanwhile, the ‘Diesels’ up front for the Falcons need to keep Mohammed Kamara and company out of their backfield. Expect a blocking scheme that accounts for the Rams strength to be deployed to allow for steady gains in the snow.
It’s really interesting looking at the how the Rams have fared defensively, despite four of the better defensive players in all of the conference. This lends a lot of credence to the reality that teams that function as a unit are often far more formidable than one that might have highly talented individuals but lack communication or are more significantly flawed at other positions. Air Force feasts on a defense that is not on top of its’ game communicating.
You are in for a treat especially if you enjoy good secondary play as four of the best safeties in the conference will be featured in Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin. Unfortunately for CSU fans, I don’t see this game setting up to end their losing streak to Air Force at six. Weather could be a factor for both teams, but precision and execution will be the biggest factor. And no one has proven better than Troy Calhoun’s squad at that thus far.
Air Force 28 – Colorado State 20
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