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The Atlanta Braves (97-55) and Washington Nationals (68-85) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 4-2
Atlanta has lost 5 of its last 6 games allowing nearly 9 runs per game over this stretch. They come to the nation’s capital for the 1st time since April 2 and will play the Nationals 7 times over the last 10 games of the season. The Braves have already clinched the N.L. East.
The Nationals have won 2 of the 1st 3 games of their 7-game homestand. Their series victory over the Chicago White Sox was their 1st at home since Aug. 20. Washington is 33-44 at Nationals Park this season.
Braves at Nationals projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Jake Irvin
Fried (7-1, 2.64 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road victory at the Philadelphia Phillies on Sept. 12
- 2023 road stats: 5-0, 1.74 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 8 ER), .219 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. Nationals: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 7-2 road win March 30
Irvin (3-6, 4.34 ERA) will make his 24th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- 2023 home stats: 2-4, 4.10 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 38 ER), .241 OBA in 16 starts
- Has never faced the Braves as a starter
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Braves at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:51 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (+105) | Nationals +2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Nationals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves will win this game but I’m not going to bet 2 1/2 units to win back 1. That’s just never a good bet anyway you slice it.
Run line/Against the spread
BET BRAVES -2.5 (+105).
You don’t see the -2.5 run line very often when it comes to MLB games. I don’t mind taking the extra run in this matchup.
Fried has been stellar on the road this season. And since 2021, he is 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA against the Nationals. In Atlanta’s 4 wins over Washington this season, they have won by multiple runs in 3 of them.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (+100).
I love that you are getting plus odds on this bet. In their 7 meetings this season, the total runs scored has been 9 or less in 6 of them.
The Nationals have also been under this total in 5 of their last 6 games.
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