The Atlanta Braves (21-10) and Miami Marlins (16-15) tussle in the Thursday afternoon finale of their 3-game series. The opening pitch at loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Atlanta leads 5-1
Atlanta is up 2-0 in this set and outscored Miami 20-6. The Braves whacked 6 home runs Wednesday as part of a gridiron-esque 14-6 score.
The Marlins had been 10-6 at home before this series. Miami has scuffled its way to a league-low 3.39 runs per game overall this season.
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Braves at Marlins projected starters
LHP Dylan Dodd vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Dodd (1-1, 7.71 ERA) is making the 3rd start of his career. He has registered a 1.82 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 9 1/3 IP over 2 turns.
- Was sent down to Triple-A after a dodgy start against the San Diego Padres on April 9 where he allowed 7 runs over 4 1/3 IP
- Gave up 6 ER in 3 IP during his most recent Triple-A appearance
Luzardo (2-1, 3.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has registered a 1.34 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 33 2/3 IP.
- Owns a 2.31 ERA through 4 starts at home
- Has been hurt by a .345 batting average on balls in play
Braves at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Braves -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+146) | Marlins +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
Both teams have overplayed their numbers this season, the Braves on the analytics side mostly, the Fish in terms of flat runs vs. runs scored (having a run differential of -49 runs doesn’t usually add up to an over-.500 record). However, Luzardo is the x-factor here.
The lefty’s velocity has been up and he (and other Miami hurlers) has faced a tough slate of hitting teams over the first five weeks. Luzardo has notched a 4.21 ERA across 4 career starts against the Braves, but his last start against them was a beauty (Oct. 3, 2022: 6 IP, 0R, 1 BB, 12K). Current Braves batters own a K-heavy .572 OPS against him.
The Fish have a much more rested bullpen and the Braves have dropped 3 straight get-away games.
BACK THE MARLINS (-108).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. For Miami bettors, the safety of a 1-run cushion has a bloated price.
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Over/Under
With Luzardo, the rookie Dodd, the bullpens, the net pull is on a lower score. The Atlanta offense being too far out over its skis (.347 BABIP against left-handed pitchers, .355 BABIP in high-leverage scenarios) plays along that same line.
The Under 8.5 is worth a half-unit play if the price reaches -110. Otherwise, PASS.
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