The Arizona Diamondbacks (37-25) and the Washington Nationals (25-36) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
Games in New York and Philadelphia were canceled due to air quality concerns due to the Eastern Canadian wildfires, but these teams played on Tuesday and are expected to do so again Wednesday.
The NL West-leading Diamondbacks have enjoyed their visit to the nation’s capital, outscoring the Nationals 16-7 in a pair of victories. That includes a 6-2 win in Wednesday’s middle game against former D-Backs LHP Patrick Corbin.
The Nationals have dropped 4 in a row, and Washington has been outscored 31-12 during the ugly skid. The Nats are also 0-4 on the run line, losing each of the outings by at least 2 runs, including by 4 or more runs in the past 3 setbacks.
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Diamondbacks at Nationals projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Kelly (7-3, 2.80 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 70 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 3 BB, 8 K in a 3-2 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 4-0, 1.63 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 5 ER – 1 HR) with 8 BB, 25 K and a .208 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
Gray (4-5, 3.09 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 67 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Friday
- 2023 Home splits: 2-2, 4.10 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 11 ER – 3 HR) with a .250 OBA in 7 starts
Diamondbacks at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105) | Nationals +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Nationals 2
Moneyline
The DIAMONDBACKS (-155) are worth a look on the moneyline.
Arizona has won the first 2 games in this series by at least 4 runs, easily cashing on the run line. Now, World Baseball Classic hero Kelly gets the ball looking to broom the Nats in their pad. He has been money on the road this season, winning all 4 of his decisions with a minuscule 1.63 ERA away from home.
Run line/Against the spread
The DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+105) are a strong play on the run line at plus money.
Arizona has been cruising through the first 2 games of the series and should complete the sweep with at least a 2 run margin Thursday.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-105) is worth a look in this getaway day game.
Kelly has tossed up plenty of donuts on the road, and he generally keeps the ball inside the park. Gray has allowed just north of 4 runs per every 9 innings at home, but he has been good at limiting the damage, too. Look for this total to go low, although it might be close when it comes down to the bullpens.
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