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The Arizona Diamondbacks (72-68) and Chicago Cubs (76-64) meet Thursday as they open a 4-game series. First pitch at Wrigley Field is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Arizona won the 2022 series 4-3.
Arizona is looking to snap a 3-game road losing streak and are just 8-18 over their last 26 away games.
The Cubs have surged in the standings in the 2nd half. Since July 14, Chicago has played .667 ball (34-17). Over that span, the Cubs have gained 5 1/2 games in the NL Central standings. They enter Thursday 1 1/2 games behind the 1st-place Milwaukee Brewers and 2nd in the Wild Card race.
Diamondbacks at Cubs projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Javier Assad
Nelson (6-7, 5.47 ERA) is tabbed for his 26th start. He has logged a 1.46 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 125 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-5 home loss vs. San Diego Padres on Aug. 11
- 2023 road stats: 4-2, 3.30 ERA in 73 2/3 IP in 13 starts
- Owns a 7.60 ERA over his last 7 starts
- Being recalled from Triple-A Reno for this start
Assad (3-2, 2.69 ERA) makes his 26th appearance and 8th start. He has registered a 1.18 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 87 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 8 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 loss at Cincinnati Reds Saturday withseason-high 98 pitches
- 2023 home stats: 0-2, 3.55 ERA in 45 2/3 IP in 15 games (3 starts)
- Has never faced Arizona as a starter
- Has allowed just 8 ER over his last 48 1/3 IP (1.49 ERA), which includes time in the Chicago bullpen
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Diamondbacks at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:54 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cubs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145) | Cubs -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Diamondbacks at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Diamondbacks 5
Moneyline
The Cubs have been a good wagering play for much of the 2nd half. That time to shine — a period of undervalued profitability — may be nearing an end, and Assad figures as overvalued.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Same as above: no interest in trying to get the Cubs by unless the plus money comes back at +130 or better. PASS.
Over/Under
Cooler temps and an inward breeze are expected for this game, but Chicago has been mashing right-handers lately (.835 OPS in the 2nd half), and Nelson is a question mark/negative lean in his return from stint in minors.
Assad has benefited from a .255 batting average on balls in play and an 84.1% left-on-base rate. Look for Cubs pitching to be trying to put a high-scoring game in the barn late.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-110).
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