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The Philadelphia Phillies (91-61) and New York Mets (84-68) open a 4-game NL East battle Thursday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 6-3
Philadelphia lost 2-1 to the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday while failing to cover as a -102 road favorite. The Phillies have yet to clinch the NL East, but are still near locks to make the postseason.
New York destroyed the Washington Nationals 10-0 Wednesday while covering as a -165 home favorite. The Mets have won 3 straight and are 2 games ahead of Atlanta for 2nd in the NL East and have over a 70% chance to make the playoffs.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Luis Severino
Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA) makes his 15th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 78 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 13 H, 1 BB, 0 K in a 10-0 outing vs. Houston Astros on Aug. 28
- Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.18 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)
Severino (10-6, 3.77 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 172 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 6-4 loss at Philadelphia Saturday
- Career vs. Philadelphia: 1-0, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-185) | Mets -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
LEAN PHILLIES (+120).
Philadelphia has won the last 2 meetings vs. New York and is 7-3 in its last 10 vs. the Mets. The Phillies are also 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Mets in the Big Apple.
This is a lean because Philadelphia is only 1-3 in its last 4 road games while the Mets have won 3 straight at home.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I expect the Phillies to cover here as +1.5 (-185) underdogs, but with this line set so favorably their odds are better on the moneyline. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-110).
The Under has hit in back-to-back games for Philadelphia and is 3-0-1 in its last 4. For NY, the Under is 2-1-1 in its last 4 losses. The Under has also hit in each of the last 2 matchups between these squads in New York and is 3-2 in the last 5 meetings overall.
This is a lean because the Under is only 4-5-1 in New York’s last 10 overall and 5-4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 overall.
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