[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) and Miami Marlins (0-1) meet for the 2nd game of a 4-game series Friday with 1st pitch from loanDepot Park set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pittsburgh leads 1-0
The Pirates picked up a 6-5 win in 12 innings as +112 road underdogs Thursday to spoil Miami’s home opener. The Pirates scored 3 runs in the the 7th and 8th innings to tie the game at 5. Pittsburgh never led until 2B Jared Triolo hit an RBI single in the 12th.
LHP Jesus Luzardo started for the Marlins and allowed 2 H, 2 ER with 2 BB and 8 K in 5 IP. The Marlins scored 5 runs in the 1st 5 innings, but failed to score again and had only 1 hit after the 5th inning.
Pirates at Marlins projected starters
LHP Martín Pérez vs. LHP A.J. Puk
Perez (10-4, 4.45 ERA) made 20 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2023. He had a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 141 2/3 IP as a member of the Texas Rangers.
- 2023 road splits: 5-3, 5.18 ERA (73 IP, 42 ER), 26 BB, 43 K in 11 road starts, 18 total road appearances
- 2023 vs. Miami: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 1 K in 1 relief appearance, a 6-0 home win for the Rangers on Aug. 6
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-1, 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 2 BB, 8 K through 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
Puk (7-5, 3.97 ERA) made 58 relief appearances in 2023. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 2.06 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 56 2/3 IP.
- 2023 home splits: 4-3, 5.29 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 9 BB, 51 K across 34 relief appearances
- 2023 vs. Pirates: 1-1, 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0 BB, 4 K in 4 relief appearances
- Career vs. Pittsburgh: 8-6, 5.14 ERA (75 IP, 43 ER), 78 H, 97 K through 74 relief appearances
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Pirates at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Marlins -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 3, Pirates 2
Moneyline
BET MARLINS (-125).
Pittsburgh has not won back-to-back games in Miami since July of 2022, so I don’t expect the Pirates to pick up the win here. The favorite has also won 5 of the last 6 matchups between these squads.
This is a risky bet as it is hard for me to trust Puk, who is making his 1st career start after 142 games in relief, over a seasoned starting pitcher like Perez. However, Pittsburgh used a lot of its bullpen in Thursday’s win, so I like Miami to get the win here.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I like Pittsburgh to cover here as a +1.5 (-200) road underdog, especially because I expect the Marlins to have trouble hitting against Perez and I have questions about Puk for Miami, but the Pirates are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).
The Under has also hit in 5 of the last 7 Pittsburgh-Miami matchups overall and is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Under is also 3-1 in Miami’s last 4 wins vs. Pittsburgh. For Miami, the Under is 5-1-1 in its last 7 dating back to last season.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @payton_shanks on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]