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The Philadelphia Phillies (82-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-54) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 7-4
The Phillies won 7-1 as -109 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed in the series opener Monday. DH Kyle Schwarber hit a 483-foot, 2-run HR in the 6th inning, and Philadelphia won for the 3rd time in its last 4 games. The Phillies have a 3½-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top NL Wild Card spot.
The Braves tied their season high for consecutive losses after dropping their 4th straight game Monday. However, Atlanta has secured a bye in the postseason and home field in the NLDS after the Milwaukee Brewers dropped a 1-0 decision at the St. Louis Cardinals.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sánchez vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Sánchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-1 home loss vs. Braves Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 0-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER) in 4 starts
- Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 169 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in Wednesday’s victory at Phillies
- 2023 home stats: 6-3, 4.33 ERA (81 IP, 39 ER) in 14 starts
- 2023 vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts
- Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 7-0, 1.56 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 7 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
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Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 2
Moneyline
It’s unlikely that the Braves (-225) will lose back-to-back home games vs. the Phillies, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Atlanta should win by multiple runs.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are 26-17 on the run line this season in divisional matchups, according to TeamRankings.com. They’ve also won 14 of Strider’s last 19 starts by multiple runs.
The Phillies are an MLB-worst 33-48 on the run line this year after a win and have struggled vs. Strider in the regular season.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-115).
Over/Under
Strider has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 6 starts, and Sánchez has allowed 3 or fewer in 14 of his 16 outings this season. The Under is 41-32-8 (56.2%) this year when the Phillies are coming off a win and should hit again Tuesday with Strider on the mound for the Braves.
BET UNDER 9 (-115).
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