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The Atlanta Braves (96-52) and the Miami Marlins (77-72) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park in South Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 9-3
The Braves clinched the National League East Division title Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Atlanta was off Thursday, and it has dropped both games since the clincher.
The Over is on a roll for Atlanta, cashing in the first 2 games of the current series, while going 10-2 across the past 12 games overall. The Over is 5-1 in the past 6 games inside the division, too.
For the Marlins, they are still very much alive in the playoff picture in the National League, 2 full games clear of the San Francisco Giants for the final Wild Card spot. Analytics show the Marlins with a 41.1% chance of making the postseason field.
Miami has piled up 20 runs of offense in the past 2 games for back-to-back Over results. The 20 runs in a 2-game span is the most for the Marlins since totaling 25 runs in consecutive games against the St. Louis Cardinals July 4-5.
Braves at Marlins projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Morton (14-11, 3.42 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 157 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 10-8 road win in 10 innings vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Monday
- 2023 road splits: 7-6, 3.61 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 2 HR, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 15 starts
- 2023 vs. Miami: 2-0, 0.71 ERA, 12 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 14 K, .159 OBA in 2 starts
Luzardo (9-9, 3.82 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 160 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 12-0 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Monday
- 2023 home splits: 4-4, 3.14 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 11 HR, .220 OBA in 17 starts
- 2023 vs. Atlanta: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home loss May 4
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Braves at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Marlins +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+122) | Marlins +1.5 (-146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
The BRAVES (-136) are a good bet to win the series finale, salvaging at least 1 game in South Florida.
Morton has had the number of the Marlins (+116) this season, allowing just a single run while scattering 7 hits in a pair of wins across 12 2/3 IP. Miami and its fans will be super salty after Morton takes care of them again.
Run line/Against the spread
The BRAVES -1.5 (+122) have gone cold since clinching the division, but they’ll get back on track behind the Fish killer Morton.
In the past 10 games as a favorite, Atlanta is 5-5 on the run line, which isn’t great or poor. It has the division already sewn up, but the Braves will still want to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Look for Morton to be sharp on the bump and the offense to do its job against the mediocre Luzardo.
Over/Under
The OVER 8 (-122) is a decent play in the series finale.
The Over has cashed in the first 2 games of the series, while the total has gone high in 10 of the past 12 contests overall for the Bravos. The Over is 5-1 in the past 6 against divisional opponents, too.
For the Marlins, the Over has cashed in 5 straight games at home, while going 4-1 in Luzardo’s past 5 assignments at loanDepot Park.
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