The San Diego Padres (55-60) and Arizona Diamondbacks (57-58) open up a 3-game set at Chase Field Friday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-2
The Friars limp into this one losers of 4 in a row and 5 of 6. They sit 13 1/2 out in the NL West but just 4 1/2 out of an NL Wild Card spot. Close games have been San Diego’s kryptonite, going 0-10 in extra innings and 6-18 in 1-run games. The Padres are just 15-17 within the division.
The D-Backs are having an even bigger meltdown than the Padres with 8 straight losses and defeats in 9 of 10. Arizona is a whopping 7-23 over the last 30 games. This is a team that was atop the NL West for a big portion of the season but now sits 13 1/2 out in the division and 2 1/2 out of a Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks are 16-17 against left-handed pitchers.
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Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Ryne Nelson
Snell (8-8, 2.61 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 124 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 8 K Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 3-1, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 46 K in 32 IP
Nelson (6-6, 5.16 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 122 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K Saturday against the Minnesota Twins
- 4 career starts vs. Padres: 1-1, 4.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 17 K in 22 1/3 IP
Padres at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Snell is a magician. He has 30 walks in 37 innings over his last 7 starts, but he’s 4-1 with a 1.22 ERA. He has at least 3 walks in each of those starts, but he has the stuff to put hitters away to come away unscathed. With that much traffic, there’s no way I’m taking the Padres (-165).
Head to the Win/Total section and take the PADRES AND OVER 5.5 (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
Snell’s last 3 starts have ended in multi-run wins. Nine of the last 10 games between these teams have been decided by more than a run. The same can be said for San Diego’s last 10 overall.
Go easy, but I’ll take PADRES -1.5 (-105).
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Over/Under
The D-Backs are just 1-9 O/U over the last 10, and the Padres are 5-5. Snell has only had 1 Over cash in his last 4 starts, and the Over is 1-2 in his last 3 against Arizona. Nelson has allowed 13 ER in his last 3 starts, but I don’t think it’s enough to cash an Over.
PASS.
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