The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-21) play the finale of a 4-game set at Truist Field Sunday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1
The Phils squeaked out a 2-1 victory Saturday for a 2nd straight win after dropping the series opener Thursday. Philadelphia has been playing .500 ball all month, going 5-5, 10-10 and 15-15 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. OF Bryce Harper has settled in after returning from Tommy John surgery, hitting .321 with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 22 games.
The Braves are still sitting pretty atop the NL East with a 4.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins. 1B Matt Olson (14), OF Ronald Acuna (11), C Sean Murphy (11), DH Marcell Ozuna (11) and 2B Ozzie Albies (10) have all hit at least 10 home runs for Atlanta. The Braves have taken care of business in the division at 11-5 but are just 14-14 at home thus far.
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Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Dylan Covey vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 3rd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 innings for the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Threw 5 IP in relief Tuesday, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 6 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks
- Throws a sinker, cutter, slider and changeup; throws the cutter 34% of the time to a .231 OBA
Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 15.1 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K in an 8-1 loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
- 3 career starts vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 29 K in 18 2/3 IP
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (+105) | Braves -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Strider is just blowing everyone away with 7 or more K’s in his last 7 starts and 10-plus K’s in 4 of those outings. He has been hittable, though, with a 4.23 ERA over his past 5 starts. He’s the same pitcher at home as he is on the road, and the Braves have a sizeable advantage on the mound Sunday. The Phils are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Braves but just 6-13 in the last 19 in Atlanta.
No chance we’re taking the -250 ML here, but if you head to the First 5 Innings section, WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 1 OR MORE RUNS IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS? YES (-165) is at a suitable price with the way Strider has been giving up runs.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are priced the way they should be with the steep advantage they have on the mound. However, they have just 2 wins by multiple runs in the last 10 games. If you’re feeling the Braves here, head to the Win/Total section. There’s a prop there for BRAVES AND OVER 6.5 TOTAL RUNS (-115) at a solid price if we can stay under 10 runs.
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Over/Under
It’s 72 degrees with a 9-mph breeze blowing out toward left-center. I think the 9 total is pretty spot on here. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the totals in Strider’s 3 career starts vs. Philadelphia are 7, 14 and 9. So we’re already leaning toward the Over here, but I just don’t see the incentive to reach for 10 runs to avoid a push.
PASS.
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