4. Texas at Texas Tech
POINT TOTAL 61
ATS PICK UNDER
I have a friend who gets mad at me for this logic, but it sticks.
The under is the right play here. If it’s not, that means it’s a high-scoring game with lots of fun things happening, so enjoy the show that you paid for.
Or, you can expect these two defenses to rise up and do enough to keep this from getting too crazy.
There are several factors in play here. First, the Texas Tech offense isn’t going off like it’s supposed to.
It’s been good – it hit Murray State for 63 and beat Houston 33-30 – but it hasn’t quite been the high-octane fun show expected. Losing starting QB Tyler Shough had something to do with that.
Second, the Red Raider defense has been solid. It held down Houston a bit, and it wasn’t bad in the 27-14 loss to NC State last week.
And finally, the Texas defense has shown up.
The big concern with the under is a Texas O that might go off. It was great against a solid UTSA team in the 41-20 win, but it’s more likely to be in the 30s on the road against the Red Raider defense.
The Longhorn D should bring this home.
It made Alabama look vulnerable, it kept Frank Harris and the Roadrunner attack to 20 points, and it should keep Texas Tech to around 20ish or so.
Again, if this is a wild back-and-forth game, enjoy. But based on what do we know so far, the defenses should show up.