Red Zone Efficiency
This is where small size caveats may apply, but there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that the Mountain West, as a whole, just has not be as good in the red zone as they were in 2021. Last year, ten teams managed to convert more than 50% of their opportunities inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns. In 2022, that number has dropped to five… and it’s mostly not teams you’d expect: UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise State.
The same is also true on defense, as eight Mountain West teams allowed less than 60% of their opponents’ red zone trips to become touchdowns last year. In 2022, that group numbers just three so far with Boise State, UNLV, and San Jose State. Returning quarterbacks like Fresno State’s Jake Haener, Utah State’s Logan Bonner, and SJSU’s Chevan Cordeiro simply have not been as sharp as they were a year ago, so while there’s time to turn that around, it’s easy to see why that has influenced the results to date.
Third Down Efficiency
It’s hard to remain competitive when you can’t move the chains consistently, and that seems to have been a conference-wide problem to date, as well. Compared to 2021, only Air Force (from 45.4% to 52.9%) and UNLV (from 35% to 38.2%) have improved on their offensive conversion rate to this point in the 2022 season. Overall, seven teams in the conference had a third-down conversion rate better than 40% last season; in 2022, only Air Force and Fresno State have managed that feat so far.
And as in the red zone, defenses have seen similar struggles, too, though there does seem to be more of a definitive split between good and bad. Six teams have allowed opponents to convert more than 40% of third down tries where only four did in 2021, though it is worth noting that the six teams on the good side of that split — Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State, Air Force, and San Jose State — have all improved at least slightly in that regard from last year.
A Lack of Explosiveness
This may be a little harder to measure, but looking at the raw count of 20-yard plays from many teams across the conference, it’s clear this has played a role in the early going, too. UNLV has doubled its number from 2021 through four games, from 12 to 24, while Air Force has actually racked up as many as a year ago (20), Fresno State is up slightly on a per-game basis and San Jose State has nearly matched its total in one fewer contest, but…
- Hawaii had 32 plays of 20-plus yards in 2021 through five games, but the Warriors have just 13 in the same number of matchups so far in 2022.
- Nevada had 15 such plays in its first three games last year, but the Wolf Pack have only 13 in five games to this point in 2022.
- San Diego State had 18 such plays in 2021 through four games, but the Aztecs have just nine in 2022.
- Utah State had 25 such plays in 2021 through four games, but the Aggies have 12 through the first four games in 2022.
- Wyoming had 17 such plays in 2021 through four games, but the Cowboys have 13 in five games so far in 2022.