As usual, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its rankings on Tuesday night. What should fans be looking for as we enter the final regular-season weekend of college football?
Interestingly enough, we are at a point in the season where there isn’t so much to learn about any team. We know that the top 17 teams are locked in to their spots, though there will obviously be shuffling. We know the contenders and the scenarios they want.
There really aren’t too many hints the committee can send us this week. There are some things to key in on, though, so let’s look at what we can see.
Obviously, there will be meaningless quibbles at the top. Who will be No. 1? Both Ohio State and LSU have very strong resumes and cases for being the top team. Ultimately, though, that won’t matter. Those are the top two, and that status quo will continue as long as each keeps winning. It’s splitting hairs, and it honestly doesn’t matter which way the split goes.
Clemson will also stay at No. 3 and Georgia at No. 4. I would be very surprised if Alabama falls behind Utah, though the committee could be willing to switch that up to send a message about playing late-season cupcakes. Don’t expect that message to be sent, though.
I would say that the committee could tell us something about Oklahoma, but it really can’t. The Sooners will be No. 7 (or maybe No. 8 if Minnesota jumps them, but that seems unlikely). Oklahoma is the team that the committee likely has the most trouble with, as the Sooners are clearly talented but struggling to close out games. Do the voters hold that against Oklahoma? There’s no real way to know, since there’s really no team close enough to Oklahoma to jump over it. If we see a team with a weaker resume, like Florida, Wisconsin, or Michigan–or if we see Penn State stay ahead of Oklahoma–then we’ll know that the committee has a serious problem with the Sooners this year. Again, though, don’t expect that to happen, just based on a complete lack of any team close enough.
A similar situation will occur at the No. 19 and 20 spot. Cincinnati has a far superior resume to Boise State. (In fact, Cincinnati has one of the best overall SOS that we’ve seen from a non-Power 5 team in a long time.) However, the Bearcats are barely squeaking through games, while Boise State is blowing teams out. It shouldn’t matter, as Cincinnati would jump back over the Broncos with a win this week, but it’s one of the few spots that can give us real insight into how the committee views blowout wins over worse teams as opposed to close wins over slightly better teams.
Lastly, see if the committee makes any changes at the bottom. SMU will drop out of the rankings, obviously, and be replaced by either Navy or Virginia Tech. Both of those teams, though, have far stronger resumes than Appalachian State. Will the committee be willing to drop a Mountaineers team that has no real resume and isn’t nearly as good as those two? Or will it keep a team ranked just because it had them there before? This decision, more than any other, will tell us whether the committee is truly willing to look at the resumes anew each week, or whether it’s mostly sticking with what it did last week and sliding teams up or down as necessary.